Benefits and disadvantages of Russia-Ukraine war for Iran

[drmeson]

Depends on the outcome. If Russia is subdued then NATO can divert more resources to the Iranian theater.

Russia is not going to be subdued and western countries (US, UK, France, Germany) are not stupid that they would put a 1.1 trillion $ GDP bearing Iran with 2nd largest gas reserves in the world, out of the global economics equation. There is a reason JCPOA bargain is still going on in Vienna without any result coming out yet.

 

[Indos]

There is no benefit until Iran Mullah government reach a deal with US and European countries in relation to Nuclear deal. Iran has got relatively not much benefit since the surge of oil and gas prices since 2021. It hasnt much enjoyed the price surge as like countries like Saudi, UAE, Qatar, Nigeria, Russia, etc...

Why wait so much long as Biden administration has come to power more than a year ???????

The last reason of wanting a guarantee is actually a foolish reason, time keep ticking and it has been more than a year since Trump is no longer a US President while Iran keep asking a guarantee if next administration break the deal again.............???

 

[QWECXZ]

Today I was thinking about the situation and there is one potential disadvantage:

If Russia gets heavily sanctioned and Ukraine leaves the International North-South Transport Corridor, the importance of the INSTC will be undermined greatly.

 

[aryobarzan]

Today I was thinking about the situation and there is one potential disadvantage:

If Russia gets heavily sanctioned and Ukraine leaves the International North-South Transport Corridor, the importance of the INSTC will be undermined greatly.

will just have re route through Turkey..after all they need to get some benefits from all this can not be all loss for them..

 

[QWECXZ]

will just have re route through Turkey..after all they need to get some benefits from all this can not be all loss for them..

Turkey has been part of the plan since day 1. And Turkey does not have a land route to Europe, but correct me if I'm wrong.
Maybe it is connected to Europe on the northwest through Bulgaria or Greece?
The land route from Russia will definitely become much longer, particularly if they sanction Belarus too.

Edit: I just checked it. Turkey is connected to Bulgaria. My bad.

 

[aryobarzan]

Turkey has been part of the plan since day 1. And Turkey does not have a land route to Europe, but correct me if I'm wrong. Maybe Bulgaria or Greece?
The land route will definitely become much longer, particularly if they sanction Belarus too.

Yes bulgaria..I travelled from Germany with my Auto to Iran via turk (opss..capital!..lol)..but yes also the route will be longer so the $ saving will be less but the initial Delta is was so good that still profitable.

 

[aryobarzan]

@QWECXZ ..by the way..just a side note (sorry off topic),,If I write what I saw they will kick me out of the forum but I can tell you I saw in Bugaria/Turk border how Turks mistreated a Pak private car and its passengers on route to Pakistan ..and so many Paks are in love with them....my Photos and memories will remain private for now..

 

[Muhammed45]

There is no benefit until Iran Mullah government reach a deal with US and European countries in relation to Nuclear deal. Iran has got relatively not much benefit since the surge of oil and gas prices since 2021. It hasnt much enjoyed the price surge as like countries like Saudi, UAE, Qatar, Nigeria, Russia, etc...

Why wait so much long as Biden administration has come to power more than a year ???????

The last reason of wanting a guarantee is actually a foolish reason, time keep ticking and it has been more than a year since Trump is no longer a US President while Iran keep asking a guarantee if next administration break the deal again.............???

Horseshit is even more valuable than American words.

Once a traitor always a traitor. Why should we put our faith into a non guaranteed deal which can be thrown into trash bin any moment.

We won't recognize Israel despite American demands behind the Scene hence the Endless animosity and ideological confrontation.

This conflict in Europe, is an absolute disaster for Israel. Keep it in mind.

 

[aryobarzan]

There is no benefit until Iran Mullah government reach a deal with US and European countries in relation to Nuclear deal. Iran has got relatively not much benefit since the surge of oil and gas prices since 2021. It hasnt much enjoyed the price surge as like countries like Saudi, UAE, Qatar, Nigeria, Russia, etc...

Why wait so much long as Biden administration has come to power more than a year ???????

The last reason of wanting a guarantee is actually a foolish reason, time keep ticking and it has been more than a year since Trump is no longer a US President while Iran keep asking a guarantee if next administration break the deal again.............???

I respect you opinion but here are some facts about recent Iranian oil (I quote official and not so official figures):

1- Iranian Oil production by this month (March 2022) is now at pre-sanction level of 4 million barrel per day. China is buying more Iranian Oil than before sanction applied....Iran domestic consumption 2 million/day
official figure ...."We sell 1.2 million barrels of oil and get paid for it. The sales commission is also much lower than before the sanctions," Saeed Jalili, a member of the Expediency Council, said.

2- Iranian oil with the exception of what is shipped to China is Non-contracted oil...meaning its price to customer is determined at the current market price (some discount probably applies)..which is much better if this was a contracted oil ..(I am sure you know what contracted/non contracted oil is)

3- Iran has/had 80 million barrels of oil saved in floating oil tankers..that is now being sold as hot cake..(no one know to whom and how much)..Iran has world's largest Tanker fleet in the world for that purpose.

 

[khansaheeb]

Russia is not going to be subdued and western countries (US, UK, France, Germany) are not stupid that they would put a 1.1 trillion $ GDP bearing Iran with 2nd largest gas reserves in the world, out of the global economics equation. There is a reason JCPOA bargain is still going on in Vienna without any result coming out yet.

You obviously don't know how stupid the west can get?

 

[mohsen]

There is no benefit until Iran Mullah government reach a deal with US and European countries in relation to Nuclear deal. Iran has got relatively not much benefit since the surge of oil and gas prices since 2021. It hasnt much enjoyed the price surge as like countries like Saudi, UAE, Qatar, Nigeria, Russia, etc...

Why wait so much long as Biden administration has come to power more than a year ???????

The last reason of wanting a guarantee is actually a foolish reason, time keep ticking and it has been more than a year since Trump is no longer a US President while Iran keep asking a guarantee if next administration break the deal again.............???

China buys more Iranian oil now than it did before sanctions, data shows

China's purchases of Iranian oil have risen to record levels in recent months, exceeding a 2017 peak when the trade was not subject to U.S. sanctions, tanker tracking data showed.

www.reuters.com

 

[Indos]

China buys more Iranian oil now than it did before sanctions, data shows

China's purchases of Iranian oil have risen to record levels in recent months, exceeding a 2017 peak when the trade was not subject to U.S. sanctions, tanker tracking data showed.

www.reuters.com

That is for discounted price

 

[fitpOsitive]

Share your opinion/analysis.

Iran will become target for new emerging power. The real issue are the background actors, which you always ignore.

 

[mohsen]

That is for discounted price

$100+/barrel with discount is better than $40/barrel without discount,
not to mention the nuclear program which was weakened in the second.

 

[Aspen]

1. US will have to make even more concessions to Iran in JCPOA
2. Iran will definitely get a nuke in some form
3. Turkey is fucked as relations with Russia and Iran worsen
4. Parallel economy outside of SWIFT becomes a real thing between Iran, Russia and China
5. Iran will get whatever weapons it wants from Russia, no matter how lethal.

But I think the biggest lesson from everything is that this whole episode really is a lesson for Iran to never trust the west no matter how nice they seem. NATO promised to never expand and now they are at Russia's borders. JCPOA will be broken again by the west in the future. Better to take the deal and stab them first.

Depends on the outcome. If Russia is subdued then NATO can divert more resources to the Iranian theater.

I wouldn't count Russia out just yet. If Russia wins, it will backfire on NATO and completely turn the tables on the west. Which at this point in the game is definitely a possibility. A lot of people get fooled by articles in Washington Post and CNN which say that Russia is losing. The on ground situation is completely different. NYTimes was showing pictures of dead Russian soliders who were actually Ukranian soliders. Russia is not some lightweight power. If people think they're losing, its because they haven't decided to carpet bomb Kiev yet.