Yemen for Dummies

[The SC]

North-South Divide: An Alternative Perspective on Conflict in Yemen



Map of North and South Yemen prior to unification


Yemen is a complex country and Yemeni politics are even more complex. However the rise of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has led to Yemen being viewed primarily through the lens of The War on Terror by both the media and policy makers. With the rise of AQAP, and then the Yemeni Revolution of 2011, dominating news cycles international commentators were somewhat caught by surprise when Houthi forces swept into Sanna in late 2014. Both the media and policy makers appeared to find themselves searching for a framework to rationalise this apparently sudden political shift. The current conflict in Yemen has primarily been reported and analysed through an international and sectarian framework. Most reports talk of Shia Houthi rebels backed by Iran fighting against a Sunni government which is supported by the Gulf Monarchies. While this certainly a valid perspective it is only one dimension of a series of interlinked conflicts which are rooted in the deep divisions in Yemeni society.


To start to understand the divisions in Yemen we must remember that Yemen as a country is a recent, and to an extent, artificial creation and has spent most of the twentieth century divided into two rival states. The modern origins of the North Yemeni state date back to the re-establishment of the Imamate in 1918 following the defeat of the Ottoman Empire in WW1. A Nasserite inspired coup of 1962 and the subsequent civil war created the Yemen Arab Republic (YAR) and began North Yemen’s long period of pseudo military rule under a succession of Presidents. What became South Yemen won independence from British Colonial rule in 1967 following a short period of conflict. Further civil war in South Yemen led to the establishment of the Soviet aligned People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen (PDRY) in 1969.


The two Yemens had a hostile relationship for most of their existence, although the political elites of both countries emphasised the need for eventual unification. The divisions between the two countries were sharpened by two brief border wars in 1972 and 1979 and by both governments policy of supporting and sheltering exiled dissidents from their neighbour. The eventual unification of Yemen came about rather suddenly in 1990 following high levels talks between President Saleh of the YAR and President Ali Salim al-Beidh of the PDRY. Despite formal political union tensions between the two halves of Yemen remained; Southern leaders felt the North was politically and economically marginalising the South. These tensions boiled over into a brief civil war between May and July 1994 which ended in Northern victory.


The sense in the South, that the government in Sanna is a ‘northern government’ which exploits and oppresses the South if anything has become stronger since the civil war. After the war southerners were effectively purged from positions of power and influence in both government and the army. Most of the machinery of government, and the associated jobs, were transferred from Aden to Sanna; while the jobs that remain often go to northern officials. Combined with the exploitation of the South’s oil resources, apparently to the North’s benefit, a situation of serious discontent has developed. This discontent manifested itself in the Hirak Movement, a broad organisation founded in 2007 that campaigns for ‘southern rights’ and was heavily involved in the Yemeni Revolution of 2011.While the Hirak Movement is divided between those demanding greater federal autonomy and those seeking full independence they nevertheless all show a strong sense of southern identity. The concept of ‘southern rights’ and a separate southern identity has become a major means through which Southern Yemeni have expressed their discontent with the current political and economic situation.


The idea of a separate south has manifested strongly in the reaction to the Houthi advance into historic South Yemen. While some of the forces resisting the Houthi advance south are loyal to President Hadi it is worth noting that the majority are locally raised volunteer militias and forces openly loyal to the Hirak Movement. Furthermore it appears from anecdotal evidence that a significant proportion of these forces are concerned primarily with defending their homes from the Houthi’s; as opposed to fighting to defend the government


Why does this matter? If the international community wants to try and find a resolution to the conflict in Yemen it must first understand the conflict. The conflict in Yemen is no longer really about the government. The Houthi have control of the government in Sanna and have forced President Hadi into exile, it is now the Houthi attempt to extend their government across the whole country which is being resisted. The conflict in Yemen shouldn’t be over internationalised. Saudi Arabia and Iran both have vested interests in the conflict and both have ‘picked sides’ but it is not their proxy war. If neither Saudi Arabia nor Iran were involved the South would still be resisting the Houthi advance. The conflict in Yemen should not be over-simplified. This article has only offered one perspective on what is motivating and sustaining the conflict, it has offered a partial picture. Individuals involved in the conflict have what I.M. Lewis in his work on Somalia has called “multiple political identities”. An individual fighting for one of the militias defending Aden may be a Sunni, a Yemeni, a Southern Yemeni, a resident of Aden, a member of a tribal confederation and a member of a particular sub-tribe as well as having a sense of personal loyalty to certain political or military leaders. All of these identities, some of them or none of them may be motivating fighters and until we can pick apart the complexities of conflict in Yemen the only solution to the conflict will be a military one.

http://www.futureforeignpolicy.com/north-south-divide-alternative-perspective-conflict-yemen/

 

[The SC]

North and South Yemen: The Marriage That Wasn’t Meant To Be?

In January of this year, a group of Shi’a rebels in Yemen referred to in the West as the “Houthis” marched into the Yemeni capital Sana’a, forcing the current president Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi to flee to the southern city of Aden and eventually leave the country altogether. These rebels were supposedly fighting to convince President Hadi and his administration to reconsider a constitution that would divide the country into six federal regions. The Houthis also accused the Yemeni government of willingly harboring al-Qaeda in the Arab Peninsula (AQAP) in the southern part of the country. Because of this, they see their conquest of Yemen as something justified to ensure the safety of Yemenis and security of the region.

Iran, the only majority Shi’a Muslim country in the world, has been named a likely supporter of the rebels for religious reasons. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia, a Sunni majority country and spiritual home of Islam, has been sponsoring airstrikes against the Houthis to prevent their advancement and protect Sunni Yemenis. Because these two major Muslim powers are supporting opposite sides in the conflict, the crisis in Yemen has been portrayed as a “proxy war” between Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shi’a Iran. While it cannot be denied that both countries are at odds with one another and want to protect their interests in the region, the history and demographics of Yemen may say more about the conflict than any theories about foreign intervention.

The present day Republic of Yemen consists of two formerly independent countries which united in 1990: the Yemen Arab Republic (North Yemen) and the People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen (South Yemen). Despite the use of the terms “north” and “south” to imply some kind of Korea-like split, the two Yemens had never been formally unified prior to 1990 and developed along different political and religious lines.

North Yemen’s origin can be traced back to the founding of a Zaydi Shi’a imamate, a theocracy ruled by an imam, by Imam Yahya in 897. Yahya, a descendant of the Prophet Muhammad, was the first to unify the northern part of Yemen under Islamic rule. He united the tribes in northern Yemen under what would later be called Zaydi Shi’ism, of which former Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh and the Houthis are followers. This imamate was ruled by Yahya’s descendants for more than 1,000 years and, except during the 12th century, was separated from the southern part of Yemen. It was not until 1962 that the imamate would be overthrown during a wave of Arab nationalism and North Yemen would be established.

South Yemen has a different story. The area of southern Yemen, other than being briefly ruled by the Ottomans and the Ayyubid Dynasty, had been largely ungoverned due to its sparse population and harsh environment. But in the 19th century the British began looking for a place, ideally on the Arab peninsula, where they could service ships en route to India. Originally, the British negotiated with the Zaydi imamate about building a settlement in its territory, but the negotiations failed. The British then conquered Aden, the future South Yemeni capital, in 1839 and made it a part of British India. Aden became a crown colony in 1937 and, in 1963, Britain annexed all of the future South Yemeni territory to form a protectorate under the name “Federation of South Arabia.”

The British promised independence to the Federation of South Arabia by 1968, but Yemenis soon rose up in revolt to combat the British forces in what is now called the “Aden Emergency.” During this conflict, which lasted for four years and resulted in about 2,000 deaths, Arab nationalists formed the National Liberation Front (NLF) and fought the British using guerilla tactics. The British left Aden by November 1967 and the NLF beat out their competitors for control, establishing the People’s Republic of Yemen. However, a radical Marxist faction within the NLF took over a few years later and renamed the country the People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen, a Soviet satellite state.

North and South Yemen maintained relatively friendly relations throughout their existences and both countries expressed that they favored unification despite clear differences. A CIA report from 1990 examined the concerns of many South Yemenis who were worried that merging with the more populated North would allow the North to “dominate” the South. In a way, this is exactly what happened after the two merged in 1990 to form the Republic of Yemen. The leader of North Yemen, Ali Abdullah Saleh, became the president of the newly unified Yemen while Ali Salim al-Beidh, the leader of South Yemen, became the vice president. However, within a few years, South Yemenis again declared independence and the resulting civil war in 1994 exposed the longstanding rift between North and South Yemen.


Dark Green is Shi’a, Light Green is Sunni


Political Divisions of Yemen

And now we come back to the Sunni-Shi’a split which currently characterizes the conflict in Yemen. As previously mentioned, North Yemen had long been home to Zaydi Shi’a Muslims and the first president of a unified Yemen, Ali Abdullah Saleh, was a Shi’a Muslim himself. Shi’a Muslims make up about 40 percent of Yemen’s population but they are almost all concentrated in what used to be North Yemen, where the capital Sana’a and most of the population of Yemen is located. The former South Yemen, however, is overwhelmingly Sunni and is also home to a number of socialists who reject being linked to North Yemen’s religious past. Now, although he originally fought the Houthis, Saleh, ousted from office in 2012, is standing behind them to continue the legacy of Shi’a domination in a unified Yemen in clear disregard of the concerns of southerners.

The current “civil war” taking place in Yemen has been labelled as such because, in general, the belligerents are the forces loyal to acting president Hadi and the Houthis. But now, as foreign powers get involved in the conflict, this characterization of the conflict is less applicable. The United States and Saudi Arabia claimed to have sided with Hadi loyalists because Houthi advances have halted their campaign against AQAP, seen as the “most dangerous” branch of al-Qaeda. But, as previously stated, the Houthis are just as determined to wipe out AQAP as the U.S. or Saudi Arabia are since they are Shi’a. So why are two groups with identical goals fighting each other? The answer is regional tensions and separatist sentiments that have been brewing ever since the unification of Yemen. Although the Houthis had been active since the early 2000s, the election of Hadi, a southerner and Sunni Muslim, was the final piece of evidence for the rebels that the Shi’a in northern Yemen were losing ground to the Sunni majority. Even though Saleh had opposed the Houthis before, he was a northerner and ruled Yemen for 22 years before his stepping down. Saleh solidified Shi’a and northern domination of all of Yemen while southerners were relegated to a lesser status. The Houthis are not trying to establish something new but rather continue what has been the norm for Yemen since its unification. Even though a split at this time may devastate the underdeveloped South Yemen, this civil war has proven that this split may be inevitable as the two different regions cannot find common ground.

http://georgiapoliticalreview.com/north-and-south-yemen-the-marriage-that-wasnt-meant-to-be/

Yemen reunification

Although there are no cultural, ethnic and linguistic elements that could divide the North and the South of Yemen, the process of unification did not happen without conflict. In 1972 and in 1979, simmering tensions between the two Republics of Yemen led to fighting and attempts towards unification after these conflicts did not succeed. However, a draft constitution for a united State was written in 1981. In 1988, an agreement was concluded to demilitarize the borderline and exploit in common the oil wells discovered in 1984. The collapse of the Soviet Union, the main sponsor of South Yemen, and the cessation of Saudi aid to North Yemen, were determining factors in the movement towards the unification.

On 22 May 1990, the Yemen Arab Republic (YAR) and the People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen (PDRY) merged to form a sovereign State, the Republic of Yemen. Sanaa, the former capital of the YAR, became the political capital while Aden with its free trade zone became the economical capital. Unification implied a complete fusion of the institutions of both States, thereby obliterating the federal or co-federal options envisaged previously. Within 30 months elections had to take place in order to give legitimacy to the new government.

The main beneficiary of the unification was former President of North Yemen, Ali Abdallah Saleh, who became President of the united Yemen, while Ali Salem al-Beid, the former President of South Yemen became Vice-President. One of the positive consequences of the unification was the creation of a multiparty political system and the organization of free elections in May 1991, which guaranteed freedom of speech, press freedom and the right of association.

The unification process did not go without some difficulties due to the differences in terms of territory and demographic weight (11 millions persons in North and 3 millions in South). The period of unification can be divided in two phases.

The first period is the one that precedes the southern attempt towards secession in 1994. From the outset, the South criticized the nomination of “northerners” at key posts and protested against the islamisation imposed from the North. The adoption of the Sharia as “the only source of legislation”, the authorization of polygamy and the resurgence of “tribalism” gave rise to social upheavals in the South (which had been living under a Marxist system for more than 20 years).

The second period marks the effective realization of the unity after the victory of the northern army against the “secessionists” at the end of the short civil war in 1994. The trigger factor of this conflict was the discovery of important oil deposits in the South. The former southern leaders, encouraged by Saudi Arabia, decided to undermine the unity and called for secession. In spite of various attempts of foreign mediations, in particular from Jordan, to resolve the crisis, the internal war began on 5 May 1994. The war ended on 7 July by the defeat and the temporary exile of the secessionists, of which some were later readmitted and given a new government post.

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/yemen-for-dummies.485781/

Yemen profile - Timeline

A chronology of key events:

1500s - Ottomans absorb part of Yemen into their empire but are expelled in the 1600s.

Capital: Sanaa
Image copyright AFP
Sanaa is one of the world's oldest continuously-inhabited cities

• Population: 1.6 million
• Sanaa means 'fortified place'

1839 - Aden comes under British rule, and when the Suez Canal opens in 1869 serves as a major refuelling port.

1849 - Ottomans return to north, but later face revolt.

1918 - Ottoman empire dissolves, North Yemen gains independence and is ruled by Imam Yahya.

1948 - Yahya assassinated, but his son Ahmad beats off opponents of feudal rule and succeeds his father.

1962 - Imam Ahmad dies, succeeded by his son but army officers seize power, set up the Yemen Arab Republic, sparking civil war between royalists supported by Saudi Arabia and republicans backed by Egypt.

South Yemen formed
Image copyright Getty Images
Image caption British troops intervene in unrest leading up to independence in South Yemen
1967 - Formation of People's Republic of Yemen, comprising Aden and former Protectorate of South Arabia.

1969 - Marxists take power in south, rename state People's Democratic Republic of Yemen and reorient economy, society and foreign policy towards Soviet bloc.

1971 - Thousands flee to north following crackdown on dissidents. Armed groups formed in bid to overthrow government.

1972 - Border clashes between two Yemens, ceasefire brokered by Arab League.

1978 - Ali Abdallah Saleh becomes president of North Yemen.

1979 - Fresh fighting between two Yemens. Renewed efforts to unite the two states.

1982 - Earthquake kills 3,000.

1986 - Thousands die in south in political rivalry. President Ali Nasser Muhammad flees the country and is later sentenced to death for treason. New government formed.

North and south unite
Image copyright AFP
Image caption President Saleh (r) was in power from 1990-2012 and outlasted several US presidents, including George Bush (l)
1990 May - Two Yemens united as Republic of Yemen with Mr Saleh as president, as Soviet bloc implodes. Tension between former states endures.

1992 - Food price riots in major towns.

1993 April - Coalition government formed, made up of ruling parties of former north and south.

1993 August - Vice-President Ali Salim al-Baid withdraws to Aden, alleging that south is being marginalised and southerners are being attacked by northerners.

Attempted split
1994 May - Saleh declares state of emergency and dismisses al-Baid and other southern government members following political deadlock and sporadic fighting. Former armies that failed to integrate square off on old border.

Image copyright AFP
Image caption Southern militia make a bid for separation only a few years after North and South Yemen united
1994 May-July - Al-Baid declares independence of Democratic Republic of Yemen. Northern forces capture Aden, southern leaders flee abroad and are sentenced to death in absentia.

1995 - Yemen, Eritrea clash over disputed islands in Red Sea.

Al-Qaeda attacks
2000 October - US naval vessel USS Cole damaged in al-Qaeda suicide attack in Aden. Seventeen US personnel killed.

2001 February - Violence in run-up to disputed municipal polls and referendum, which back extension to presidential term and powers.

Image copyright AFP
Image caption Aden is an important sea port and has changed hands many times
2002 February - Yemen expels more than 100 foreign Islamic clerics in crackdown on al-Qaeda.

2002 October - Al-Qaeda attacks and badly damages oil supertanker MV Limburg in Gulf of Aden ,killing one and injuring 12 crew members and costing Yemen dear in lost port revenues.

2003 April - The 10 chief suspects in the bombing of the USS Cole escape from custody in Aden. Two are re-captured in 2004.

Houthi insurgency
2004 June-August - Hundreds die as troops battle Shia insurgency led by Hussein al-Houthi in the north.

2004 August - Court sentences 15 men on terror charges, including bombing of Limburg tanker in 2002.

Image copyright AFP
Image caption Yemeni men relax while chewing mildly narcotic qat leaves
2004 September - Government says its forces have killed dissident cleric Hussein al-Houthi, the leader of a revolt in the north.

2005 March-April - More than 200 people are killed in a resurgence of fighting between government forces and supporters of the slain rebel cleric Hussein al-Houthi.

2005 May - President Saleh says the leader of the rebellion in the north has agreed to renounce the campaign in return for a pardon. Minor clashes continue.

2005 July - Police and witnesses say at least 36 people are killed across the country in clashes between police and demonstrators protesting about a cut in fuel subsidies.

2005 December - More than 60 people are killed when a landslide destroys a mountain village around 20km from Sanaa.

2006 March - More than 600 followers of slain Shia cleric Hussein al-Houthi who were captured following a rebellion he led in 2004 are released under an amnesty.

2006 September - President Saleh wins another term in elections.

2007 January-March - Scores are killed or wounded in clashes between security forces and al-Houthi rebels in the north.

2007 June - Rebel leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi accepts a ceasefire.

2007 July - Suicide bomber attacks a tourist convoy killing eight Spaniards and two Yemenis in the province of Marib.

2007 August - Citizens banned from carrying firearms in Sanaa. Demonstrations without a permit are outlawed.

2007 October - Volcano erupts on the Red Sea island of Jabal al-Tair where Yemen has a military base.

2007 November - Clashes between Yemeni tribesmen and army personnel protecting a Ukrainian oil company leave 16 people dead in the south-eastern Shabwa province.

2008 January - Renewed clashes between security forces and rebels loyal to Abdul-Malik al-Houthi.

2008 April - Clashes with troops as southern Yemenis protest against alleged northern bias in state job allocation. One man killed.

Al-Qaeda in action

• 1992 December - Bombers hit hotel in Aden formerly used by US marines - first known al-Qaeda attack in Yemen.

• 2000 October - Suicide attack on destroyer USS Cole in Aden.

• 2002 October - French tanker Limburg (pictured) damaged by bomb-laden boat.

• 2007 July - 8 Spanish tourists, 2 local drivers killed by car bomb.

• 2008 September - 16 killed in car bombings outside US embassy.

• 2009 January - Saudi, Yemeni al-Qaeda branches merge to form al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP).

• 2009 August - AQAP bomber dies in failed bid to kill Saudi deputy interior minister.

• 2009 December - 'Underwear bomber' Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab tries to down US airliner in plot claimed by AQAP.

• 2010 October - Parcel bombs, thought to have been made by al-Qaeda and dispatched in Yemen, found on US-bound cargo planes.

• 2011 May - AQAP fighters take control of southern city of Zinjibar.

• 2011 September - Al-Qaeda-linked, US-born cleric Anwar al-Awlaki killed in US air raid.

• 2012 February - Suicide attack on presidential palace kills 26 Republican Guards on day that President Hadi is sworn in. AQAP claims responsibility.

• 2012 May - 96 soldiers are killed by suicide bomber in Sanaa. AQAP claims the attack.

• 2012 June - Army retakes Zinjibar from AQAP after month-long offensive.

2008 March-April - Series of bomb attacks on police, official, diplomatic, foreign business and tourism targets. US embassy evacuates all non-essential personnel.

2008 September - Attack on US embassy in Yemeni capital Sana'a kills 18 people, including six assailants. Six suspects arrested.

2008 October - President Saleh announces arrest of suspected Islamist militants allegedly linked to Israeli intelligence.

Demands for reform
2008 November - Police fire warning shots at Common Forum opposition rally in Sanaa. Demonstrators demand electoral reform and fresh polls. At least five protesters and two police officers injured.

2009 February - Government announces release of 176 al-Qaeda suspects on condition of good behaviour.

2009 August - The Yemeni army launches a fresh offensive against Shia rebels in the northern Saada province. Tens of thousands of people are displaced by the fighting.

2009 November - Saudi Arabia says it has regained control of territory seized by Yemeni rebels in a cross-border incursion.

2009 December - Yemen-based branch of al-Qaeda claims it was behind failed attack on US airliner. The government calls on the West for more support to help it combat the al-Qaeda threat.

2010 February - Government signs ceasefire with Houthi northern rebels, which breaks down in December.

2010 September - Thousands flee government offensive against separatists in southern Shabwa province.

2010 October - Global terror alert after packages containing explosives originating in Yemen are intercepted on cargo planes bound for the US.

2011 January - Tunisian street protests encourage similar demonstrations in other countries, including Yemen. President Saleh pledges not to extend his presidency in 2013 or to hand over to his son.

2011 June - After months of mounting protests, President Saleh is injured in rocket attack and flown to Saudi Arabia, returning home in September.

2011 September - US-born al-Qaeda leader Anwar al-Awlaki is assassinated by US forces.

Unity government, growing violence
2011 November - President Saleh agrees to hand over power to his deputy, Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi. Unity government including prime minister from opposition formed.

2012 February - Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi inaugurated as president after uncontested elections.

2012 September - Defence Minister Muhammad Nasir Ahmad survives car bomb attack in Sanaa that kills 11 people, a day after local al-Qaeda deputy head Said al-Shihri is reportedly dead in the south.

2012 November - A Saudi diplomat and his bodyguard are shot dead in Sanaa. Security officials say the assailants, who opened fire on the diplomat's convoy, were dressed in police uniforms.

National dialogue
2014 January - National Dialogue Conference winds up after ten months of deliberation, agreeing a document on which the new constitution will be based.

2014 February - Presidential panel gives approval for Yemen to become a federation of six regions as part of its political transition.

2014 July - Tribesmen blow up the country's largest oil pipeline, disrupting supplies from the interior to a Red Sea export terminal.

2014 August - President Hadi sacks his cabinet and overturns a controversial fuel price rise following two weeks of anti-government protests in which Houthi rebels are heavily involved.

Houthi takeover
2014 September - Houthi rebels take control of the most of capital Sanaa.

2015 January - Houthis reject draft constitution proposed by government.

2015 February - Houthis appoint presidential council to replace President Hadi, who flees to Aden southern stronghold.

2015 March - Islamic State carries out its first major attacks in Yemen - two suicide bombings targeting Shia mosques in Sanaa in which 137 people are killed.

Smoke rises from a weapons dump outside Sanaa after being hit in an air strike


Houthi rebels start to advance towards southern Yemen. President Hadi flees Aden.

Saudi-led coalition of Gulf Arab states launches air strikes against Houthi targets and imposes naval blockade.

2015 June - Leader of Al-Qaeda in Arabian Peninsula, Nasser al-Wuhayshi, killed in US drone strike in Yemen.

2015 September - President Hadi returns to Aden after Saudi-backed government forces recapture the port city from Houthi forces and launch advance on Aden.

2016 April - Start of UN-sponsored talks between the government on one side and Houthis and former President Saleh's General People's Congress (GPC) on the other.

2016 May-June - Islamic State group claims responsibility for a number of attacks, including a suicide car bombing that killed at least 40 army recruits in Aden.

2016 October - Airstrike by Saudi-led coalition hits a crowded funeral in Sanaa, killing 140 mourners and injuring 500.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-14704951

North and South Yemen: Lead-up to the Break-up

Unified Yemen's nine-month-long slide toward civil war culminated in early May in open conflict between the northern and southern armed forces and a growing number of military and civilian casualties. Yemeni war bulletins often are contradictory and filled with more rhetoric than reporting, yet it is clear that the four-year Yemeni union has come to a bitter, bloody end.

Yemen is one of the oldest nations on earth, blessed with a rich history and distinctive culture. The biblical Queen of Sheba ruled over this land, known to the Romans as "Arabia Felix" ("Happy Arabia") because of its relative prosperity. Islam came to Yemen during the lifetime of the Prophet Muhammad. While most southerners are Sunnis of the Shafi'ilegal school, many in the northern mountains are Zaydis, or "fiver" Shi'i. The line of Zaydi imams, who first came to power in 893, ruled northern Yemen for over a millenium.

In the 1950s, Imam Ahmad began to open his formerly isolated country to the outside world, going so far as to join the United Arab Republic union of Egypt and Syria in 1958. The Egypt-Syria-Yemen union collapsed in 1961. The following year Imam Ahmad was deposed and civil war broke out in North Yemen between royalists backed by Saudi Arabia and republicans supported by Gamal Abdul Nasser of Egypt. The dueling Yemeni factions fought on even after their foreign patrons had tired of the war. The republicans finally claimed victory in 1970, and established the Yemen Arab Republic (YAR). The next decade saw a series of authoritarian regimes in power in the capital of San'a, each replaced by another through coup or assassination.

South Yemen had become a British Crown Colony in the early part of the 19th century, and from 1839 the capital of Aden was an important cooling port for British ships plying the route between England and India. An armed uprising starting in the late 1950s persuaded the British to strike their colors and go home in 1967. Marxists assumed control of South Yemen, eventually establishing there the People's Democratic Republic of Yemen (PDRY).

Although Soviet assistance propped up the weak economy, politics in the south proved to be as deadly and conspiratorial as in the north. The most spectacular change of regime occurred in 1986, when President Ali Nasser Mohammed invited hardliners in his Politburo to a meeting and had them executed by his personal guards. This touched off a civil war which resulted in Mohammed's flight to the north and 10,000 South Yemeni dead.

Bilateral relations between San'a and Aden were marked by long periods of hostility interrupted by brief reconciliations and attempts at unification. When Yemeni officials north and south weren't discussing their plans for union they generally were plotting to destabilize each other. Open war flared in October 1972. In 1978, a PDRY peace envoy assassinated northern President Ahmed ibn Hussein Al-Ghashmi with a bomb hidden in his briefcase.

In the spring of 1988, however, serious moves toward reconciliation and unification began. They were spurred by worsening economic conditions in the PDRY, as its Soviet benefactors suffered domestic collapse, cutting foreign assistance to their South Yemeni clients. In December 1989 North Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh, an army officer who had come to power after Al-Ghashmi's 1978 assassination, and South Yemeni President Ali Salim Al-Beidh, who took over in the wake of Aden's 1986 civil war, signed a draft constitution and agreed to a one-year timetable for unification.

Approval for the union was overwhelming in the PDRY, but the northern Muslim Brotherhood objected to a constitutional clause making Islamic law "a principal source of legislation" rather than the sole source. Eventually the YAR's parliament approved the constitution and on May 22, 1990, north and south merged to form the Republic of Yemen.

An Uneasy Union
The north's Ali Abdullah Saleh assumed the presidency of the transitional government, while the south's Ali Salim Al-Beidh became vice president. A veteran southern politician, Haider Abu Bakr Al-Attas, was appointed prime minister. The cabinet seats were halved between members of Saleh's General People's Congress (GPC) and Beidh's Yemeni Socialist Party (YSP). The newly integrated government, in which nearly every former southern and northern functionary found a position, was based in San'a while Aden staked its claim to be the country's financial center.

In a decision which has come back to haunt the country, it was decided to delay the integration of the northern and southern armed forces. While 15,000 southern troops were moved to the north and 8,000 northern soldiers posted to the south, the armies remained under separate commands.

From the beginning the union was tenuous. Although the former PDRY was larger geographically, the ex-YAR held 80 percent of the estimated 13 million Yemenis. The southern leadership, fearful of being overwhelmed, pressed for a speedy integration to consolidate its privileged share of power. In addition, the injection of the ex-Marxist southern politicians into the fragile network of party and tribal leaders in the north caused considerable political disruption.

Yemen's April 27, 1993 multiparty elections confirmed the south's fears. Beidh's YSP won only 54 of the 301 parliament seats (though it later attracted some independent winners), while Saleh's GPC took 122 races and a northern Islamist-tribal alliance, Al-Islah, captured 62 seats. Saleh, Beidh and Attas retained their positions but Al-Islah's influential leader, Sheikh Abdullah Al-Ahmar of the Hashid tribal confederation, became speaker of the parliament. The former 50-50 split between the GPC and YSP became an uneven three-way partnership.

In August 1993 Beidh left San'a for Aden to protest the slow pace of integration and perceived northern slights of the south. Beidh's prolonged absence and his refusal to take the oath of office as vice president paralyzed the government, while an ongoing campaign of assassination claimed some 150 YSP leaders and heightened tensions throughout Yemen. In December, Beidh suggested he and Saleh resign to break the impasse, prompting Foreign Minister Mohammed Basindwah to tell journalists, "There is an unannounced split. The only thing left is to declare the split." A Jordanian-brokered accord signed in February collapsed as northern and southern units exchanged occasional gunfire.

The outbreak of open fighting between the two Yemeni armies came on May 4. Southern forces in the north were attacked and mauled while northern troops in the ex-PDRY who escaped capture formed the advance guard of a northern assault. The following day, as the bulk of his troops neared the former border, President Saleh declared a 30-day state of emergency and dismissed all southerners from the government. Officials in Aden called for a general mobilization as foreign nationals began to evacuate.

Because the northern army held a numerical edge over its southern counterpart, some observers expected Aden to fall quickly. Southern resistance was dogged, however, and southern commanders used their greater air power (the weekly AsSayyad reported the 2,500-man southern air force had 120 combat aircraft, while the 1,000-man northern force possessed just 73 planes) to good effect. The north's offensive bogged down for days at a large airbase at Al-Anad, 35 miles northwest of the capital, allowing the south to regroup and strengthen defenses around Aden.

San'a dismissed Aden's pleas for a cease-fire as a delaying tactic, and Beidh finally declared the independence of the southern Democratic Republic of Yemen (DRY) on the eve of the fourth anniversary of unification. Beidh was named president, Abdul Rahman Al-Jifti of the opposition Sons of Yemen League was tapped as vice president, and Al-Attas became the prime minister of the breakaway state. As San'a's columns pressed forward, Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states introduced a U.N. Security Council resolution calling for a cease-fire, which was interpreted as GCC support for the southern breakaway state. Meanwhile, the DRY government moved to the city of Al-Mukalla in the eastern Hadramawt region, a Beidh stronghold.

The Seeds of War
Many observers were skeptical of the Yemeni union from the first. Against the forces pushing the two Yemens together a shared culture, the historical dream of union and the south's economic needs there were other factors pulling San'a and Aden apart. These involved clashes between northern and southern elites, rather than among ordinary people, just as the subsequent civil war was being waged because of the leaders' interests, not because of any deep animosity felt by the Yemeni people.

The long conflict between the two Yemeni regimes often was marked by treachery and deceit. These strained relations were further weakened by the personal animosity between "the two Alis," Saleh and Beidh. Both men seized and have retained power in a cut-throat political culture, and are extremely ambitious and shrewd. Their clash of egos was almost inevitable in the framework of unified Yemen.

Beidh saw Saleh as unresponsive to the south (particularly to the concerns of the Yemeni Socialist Party) and determined to amass as much personal power as possible. Saleh's unwillingness to arrest and prosecute the killers of YSP officials, among whom were some of Beidh's extended family, and the wholesale sacking of YSP offices in San'a after the outbreak of hostilities further antagonized Beidh.

Saleh believed Beidh and the YSP held unrealistic aspirations for the south in a unified Yemen. With only a fifth of the population, the south seemed determined to maintain a 50 percent stake in power. Beidh's public sulk in Aden last fall reportedly infuriated Saleh, while Beidh's decision after the signing of February's failed Amman accord to visit Saudi Arabia, which received Beidh with full honors, rather than return directly to Yemen was seen by many as a slap at Saleh, who has been persona non grata in Riyadh since the Gulf war.

Most of the other problems which prompted the republic's dissolution are the result of dashed illusions and heightened southern fears. Access to the stronger North Yemeni economy was a crucial goal in the PDRY's push for unity in May 1990. However, only three months later, after the August 1990 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and Saleh's subsequent support for Saddam Hussain, the economy faltered as more than half of the Yemeni workers in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf were expelled, and expatriate remittances plummeted.

Yemen's oil production, the country's other main source of hard currency, stands at 320,000 barrels per day, but Saudi warnings against foreign companies doing business in oil fields near the undemarcated Saudi-Yemeni borders stalled production increases. Just as Saleh's wartime support for Iraq was seen as the main reason for Saudi Arabian threats, many laid the blame for curtailed exploration and production at the president's feet.

Perhaps the single most important factor in the break-up is the changing petroleum production potential in the south. While the north holds newly discovered natural gas reserves, it is now clear that the largest oil deposits lie in the former PDRY. There are reports that Beidh andother YSP officials envision a South Yemeni "oil statelet" along the lines of the Gulf emirates. Suddenly the north no longer appears to be the south's economic savior, but rather an economic drag.

Beidh's YSP also re-examined its political prospects after its feeble showing in the 1993 parliamentary elections. While neither San'a nor Aden blames democracy or democratization per se for the split, the voting did leave southern leaders disillusioned. The YSP won only a sixth of the seats in the new parliament, all from southern constituencies. The party's inability to attract northern votes limited the likelihood of a substantially stronger YSP showing in the future, and effectively froze the party's share of the vote at 20 percent. While Beidh and Attas retained their positions in the government, the chances for continued significant YSP representation in future cabinets were slim.

While most of the conflict between north and south occurred at the elite level, the different social norms in the ex-YAR and PDRY also disturbed many ordinary Yemenis. The north is a socially conservative, largely tribal society with numerous centers of regional and local power. The south, however, retains much of the socialist and secularist outlook of its Marxist past, as well as the experience of a heavily centralized economic system. As one indicator of different social attitudes, particularly toward the role of women in society, Washington's National Democratic Institute for International Affairs reports, "There are several female judges in southern Yemen but none in northern Yemen, and there is apparently only one practicing female lawyer in northern Yemen."

While some in the north, particularly the Islamists and the rural population, feared the impact of the secularist south, southerners were afraid San'a would roll back the PDRY's liberal social legislation. In May 1992 Saleh's Presidential Council passed a personal status law which revoked a woman's right to sue for divorce unless she could prove abuse. The new law permitted a man to divorce by simple repudiation, legalized polygamy and eliminated the ex-PDRY's ceiling on dowries. Residents in the south objected, and some judges in Aden refused to implement the law while challenging it on constitutional grounds. Despite their common culture it became clear that north and south had developed substantially different social norms.

Dynamics of the Conflict
Strategic planning on both sides of the Yemeni civil war has been the subject of a great deal of, speculation. Some observers believe Saleh and the GPC precipitated the conflict, while others are equally convinced that Beidh and the YSP planned to secede months ago.

San'a faced the more difficult strategic task, similar to that faced by the Union in the American Civil War. Just as the Union army had to capture not only Richmond but also New Orleans, Nashville, Atlanta, Savannah, etc. to defeat the Confederacy, San'a dared not pour all its men into the fight for Aden, but had to take all of the southern strong points. San'a also tried to play southern politicians against each other, and brought dissident southerners into the San'a government.

By contrast, Beidh and his supporters felt time was on their side. The northern military campaign was expensive in terms of men and money, and the longer it lasted the more likely the northern leaders would be second-guessed at home. Al-Islah and the northern tribes stood to win if their GPC and YSP rivals continued to bleed one another. The longer the DRY held on, either in Aden or in the Hadramawt, the more likely it was to obtain international recognition.

While the initial fighting involved regular military units using heavy weapons, the conflict had the potential to degenerate into a low-intensity guerrilla conflict. Yemen is one of the world's most heavily armed societies, with nearly every adult male in possession of some type of firearm (guns reportedly outnumber people four to one in Yemen). House-to-house fighting in Aden or Al-Mukalla could take an enormous toll on both sides. Independent tribes of the north also might seize the opportunity to settle scores with the government in San'a.

Outside Players
Proxy wars are not new to Yemen, and it appeared that regional powers quickly chose sides. Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf Cooperation Council states, with the possible exception of independent-minded Qatar, tilted toward Beidh and the south, declaring in a joint statement, "Unity cannot at all be imposed by military means," and expressing tacit approval of the secession. Many of Saudi Arabia's wealthiest families have family ties to the southern Hadramawt region, and may also have offered clandestine support to Beidh's forces.

A number of analysts argue that Yemeni dissonance is music to Riyadh's ears. Given Saleh's pro-Iraq stance in the Gulf war, few Saudis were comfortable with the notion of him at the helm of a single strong state with tremendous economic and political potential directly to their southwest. Balanced against this, however, was the Kingdom's fear of a massive influx of refugees from the Yemeni war. Finally, Riyadh may have seized upon Beidh's need for outside support to lay the groundwork for a renewed attempt after the fighting to demarcate the disputed Saudi-Yemeni border with a friendlier regime.

If Saleh's support for Saddam earned him the wrath of the Gulf states, it may have brought him help from Baghdad. Iraqi newspapers cranked up a print campaign against Saudi Arabia's King Fahd, and there were unverified reports of Iraqi pilots flying for the north. Given Saddam's own domestic problems, however, expertise and rhetoric were the most San'a could expect from Baghdad.

Other Arab countries, particularly Egypt, also were pleased to see Saleh squirm, given his hospitality toward a number of Islamist leaders and organizations. Beidh and others seized upon the threat of "fundamentalism" and predictions of "a second Khartoum" in San'a to woo the Arab and international communities. The DRY would need recognition by two-thirds of the 22 Arab League member-states for admittance to that organization. That in turn would enhance its prospects for further international recognition.

Yemeni Prospects
The views from both San'a and Aden are rather bleak. It is difficult to imagine a scenario where Ali Abdullah Saleh is able to control a unified Yemeni nation. Conditions for strong centralized government are lacking even in the former YAR, and if Saleh tried to coax southern Yemenis back with economic incentives he would anger tribal groups in the north who already believe they have been shut out financially, and in the past have kidnapped foreign oil workers to demonstrate their displeasure.

In the south, the conflict has destroyed millions of dollars worth of infrastructure. The Yemenis as a whole have suffered considerable losses aside from those incurred in battle. Foreign investment capital, which Yemen needs desperately, has fled, as has the foreign resident community, most of which worked in the crucial health, education' petroleum and construction sectors. Four years of effort invested in building a unified Yemen were destroyed in a matter of weeks, as was whatever degree of goodwill had been fostered between the north and south.

If the war started out as a quarrel among elites, it sadly has been brought home to ordinary Yemenis on both sides through personal loss. Many have been stripped of their homes, their livelihoods and their loved ones. It remains to be seen if the leadership can convince the Yemeni people that their losses have been worthwhile.

http://www.washingtonreport.me/1994-july-august/north-and-south-yemen-lead-up-to-the-break-up.html