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Xi has picked a border fight with India that China cannot win

Please tell Modi to pick up their belongings from the Galwan beating.

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Some posters are getting ecstatic with claims that India is playing a proxy to the US. Their presumption is based on their own experience wherein they have always played their cards poorly. They presume that India would too.

Paksiatn believes in being in a camp fully. It was US camp earlier and now, China is the new boss. It has always erred by drafting a poor foreign policy.

They also had very poor foresight. It appears that they think and plan ahead by just few weeks.

When they jumped in USSR- Afghan war they didn’t think of the problems likely at the end of occupation. Got a solid shock at the end. They created Taliban without factoring in it’s role at the end of the conflict. State sponsored non-state actors was another policy made by Zia. We know what it is doing to them today. But they blame the entire world for their misfortunes rather then owning it up.

When US entered Afghan, they again jumped in without thinking of what would be the end result. US pressurised them and they just capitulated.
Apparently few Billion USD were thrown-in to sweeten the deal. The deal became sour very soon.
Then they played a double game on US, thinking that US is a fool. We know who turned out to be one in the end. While playing this double game they never planned or considered the possibilities when US withdraws. ISI Chief having a cup of tea in Kabul appears to be the end state for them. What a poor foresight?

As they wanted, Taliban came to power but they aren’t themselves ready to recognise this government. Why? You wanted them and they are here. What went wrong? While Taliban have already shown two solid fingers to them. Hurt is very real.

Earlier they became complete US sanctuary and now it is China all the way. They think China is doing everything to them out of goodwill. How naive and foolish of them. Have they contemplated if a hiccup happens with China, then what? They might claim that the relations are deeper then ocean and higher than the skies but so was the case with US till 80s.

On the contrary look at India. Not saying that it has always had the finest foreign policy but it has done much better.

Recently, India openly defied the West and bought Russian S400 and Oil. We are refining the same oil and selling it back to the Europeans. That’s neat.
Weapons were bought from the US and French too. A policy of not being tied-up to one camp. Keeping some manoeuvring space.

Has it become completely dependent on one power? No Sir.

Most Paksiatnis in fact appear hurt and disheartened at the Indian deftness on this aspect. Their comments are reflection of that hurt. Very few of them accept their failure and Indian success in this regard.

India isn’t as strong as China both militarily and economically. Good for China. It doesn’t mean India needs to be subservient to them like Pakistan.

India is working to make it’s economy stronger and military too with adequate deterrence. It is not a 100m race but a long haul.
And we are here for it.
 
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The international focus on the war in Ukraine has helped obscure the China-India military confrontation, which has led to rival force build-ups and intermittent clashes. For more than three years, the two Asian giants have been locked in a tense military standoff along their disputed Himalayan frontier.

The risk of this confrontation escalating to intense bloody clashes or even a limited border war can no longer be discounted, given the large-scale forward military deployments by both sides.

An opposite scenario is also conceivable. If Chinese President Xi Jinping were to visit New Delhi for the Group of Twenty (G20) summit in September, the trip could catalyze efforts to defuse the dangerous confrontation, which was triggered by China’s stealth territorial encroachments into the northernmost Indian territory of Ladakh in April-May 2020.

India failed to foresee the Chinese aggression largely because Prime Minister Narendra Modi had been focused on appeasing Beijing in order to chip away at the China-Pakistan axis. Mr. Xi, though, seriously miscalculated that China would be able to impose the changed territorial status quo on India as a fait accompli, without inviting a robust military response.

India has locked horns with China by more than matching Chinese force deployments. Even at the risk of sparking a full-scale war, India is openly challenging Chinese power and capability in a way that no other country has done in this century.

Discomfited by the strong Indian military challenge, Mr. Xi’s regime has sought to exert greater pressure on India by deploying more Chinese forces in offensive positions, constructing new warfare infrastructure along the frontier, and mounting infowar and psychological operations.

All this, however, risks making a permanent enemy of India, including driving it closer to the United States. Such a scenario is antithetical to China’s long-term interests. U.S. President Joe Biden’s courtship of India, and the pomp and attention he recently lavished on Mr. Modi during a state visit to the U.S., have increased Beijing’s suspicion that New Delhi is drawing closer to Washington to help blunt China.

After China’s border aggression began, New Delhi concluded the last of four foundational defence-related agreements that Washington regularly puts in place with military allies. India has also more closely integrated into the Quad arrangement with Washington, Tokyo and Canberra. And the India-initiated annual Malabar naval war games now include all the Quad partners.

The military standoff with India, meanwhile, leaves Mr. Xi with less room to accomplish what he has called a “historic mission” – the incorporation of Taiwan. India is aiding Taiwan’s defence by tying down a complete Chinese theatre force, which could otherwise be employed against that island democracy.

As Admiral Michael Gilday, the U.S. Navy’s chief of naval operations, put it last year, the standoff presents China with a “two-front” problem: “They [Indians] now force China to not only look east, toward the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait, but they now have to be looking over their shoulder at India.”

More fundamentally, Mr. Xi has picked a border fight with India that China cannot win. While the Chinese military relies heavily on conscripts, India, with an all-volunteer force, has the world’s most-experienced troops for mountain warfare.

A war between the two nuclear-armed demographic titans would likely end in a bloody stalemate, which would be seen internationally as a defeat for the stronger side, China. That would seriously damage Mr. Xi’s image.

So, if the confrontation with India were to escalate, Mr. Xi could risk being hoisted with his own petard.

Against this backdrop, would Mr. Xi be willing to find ways to defuse the military crisis with India?

The Sept. 9-10 G20 summit will bring together world leaders, including U.S. President Joe Biden, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, French President Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and possibly Russian President Vladimir Putin. However, at a time when tens of thousands of troops on each side are facing off on the Himalayan massif, it would be odd if Mr. Xi visited New Delhi without seeking to defuse the border confrontation.

At the past G20 summit in Bali, Mr. Xi and Mr. Modi briefly interacted at a cultural event in front of television cameras, but did not hold a private meeting, as each did with other leaders.

The only way to end the military standoff is through a deal to implement a sequential process of disengagement, de-escalation and de-induction of rival forces. The details of such a deal could be hammered out through military-to-military talks.

Mr. Xi, however, seems caught in a military crisis of his own making. He may want to resolve the crisis, but without losing face. His efforts to compel India to buckle have come a cropper. This means that any compromise settlement would require that Mr. Xi climb down to some extent.


You are daydreaming Indian.

It is a two front war. Also don't forget that.


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India's challenge to One China is an existential threat to China. China will never be able to reach her true potential without answering the Indian question.
 

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