VALKRYIE
FULL MEMBER
- Joined
- Mar 6, 2015
- Messages
- 669
- Reaction score
- -1
- Country
- Location
January 22, 2015
JLL’s 2015 City Momentum Index assesses 120 cities with a weighted overall score based on 37 short-term and longer term variables on real estate and socio-economic factors.
Providing a new view into what makes cities dynamic and attractive for future opportunities, JLL (NYSE: JLL) today released its second annual City Momentum Index(CMI). London, San Jose, Beijing, Shenzhen and Shanghai lead the 2015 CMI, which also features six new cities in the top 20: Ho Chi Minh City (6) Sydney (11), Dublin (14), Nairobi (15), Melbourne (16) and Nanjing (20). The CMI goes beyond traditional static economic rankings by delving into the underlying drivers that keep cities competitive and dynamic, as well as identifying signals for change that will impact their future.
Jeremy Kelly, Director, Global Research for JLL, explains the differentiating factors of the CMI, “While typical real estate performance rankings reveal most active investment and occupier markets, JLL’s CMI identifies the global cities changing fastest. By widening our lens to combine real estate dynamics such as investment, property prices and construction with socio-economic factors, we can better understand the drivers of city success by examining signals of change over the years.
“Having strong momentum presents cities with opportunities, but also risk. While the 2015 CMI highlights a city’s success and pace of change today, it doesn’t guarantee the future performance of commercial real estate or identify the hottest investment markets. We have seen the technology industry driving cities’ real estate markets year over year, but other trends, ranging from environment to education, impacted the pace of change, resulting in a shuffle of cities’ positions on the CMI,” Kelly said.
The list of top 20 cities reveals major trends and changes driving global momentum:
Technology-rich cities dominate the CMI.Several of the world’s most tech-rich cities maintained a position in the top 20, including London (1), San Jose (2), Boston (7) and San Francisco (9). Newcomers to the top 20, thanks to the technology sector, include Sydney (11), Bangalore (12), Dublin (14), Nairobi (15) and Melbourne (16).China’s cities buoyant despite economic slowdown. China’s recent economic performance has not impeded seven of its cities appearing in the global top 20, underpinned by the continued expansion of its domestic market and middle class population. Trade and connectivity prove critical to Chinese cities, demonstrated in the “corridor of dynamics” along the Yangtze River connecting Shanghai (5), Wuhan (8), Chongqing (10) and Nanjing (20). As China moves up the value chain, the technology sector has become an important driver of city success, helping to boost cities such as Beijing (3) and Shenzhen (4).London and Dublin outperform continental Europe. While continental European cities were once again absent from the list of most dynamic cities, London topped the 2015 CMI and Dublin entered the top 20 at 14. London’s strong economic fundamentals, cross-border investment, positive outlook and reputation as a global tech hub boosted its position. Dublin is currently the world’s fastest-growing office rental market.
While six new cities entered the 2015 CMI, established tech and creative hubs, such as Austin, Los Angeles and Seattle, dropped to just outside the top 20. Hong Kong and Tokyo fell outside this year’s top 20 due to a temporary loss of impetus, but nonetheless have strong long term fundamentals. For the first time, cities in India and Sub-Saharan Africa were represented in the CMI due to the robust demand for office space from technology companies (Bangalore, 12) and MNC expansion (Nairobi, 15).
Short-term socio-economic momentum variables (40 percent of the model) include recent and projected changes in GDP and population, air passenger traffic, corporate headquarter presence and recent levels of foreign direct investment as a proportion of a city’s economy.
Short-term commercial real estate momentum variables (30 percent of the model) include recent and projected percentage changes in office net absorption, office construction, office rents, shopping mall construction and retail rents, direct commercial real estate investment volumes and real estate transparency.
Longer term variables (30 percent of the model) that are likely to determine future economic strength and real estate momentum include high-value incubator indicators such as university presence and educational infrastructure, innovation capability, international patent applications and presence of technology and venture capital firms.
Tech Hubs Dominate Most Dynamic Cities List
The Top 20 cities in the CMI 2015 reveal that:
• The technology sector continues to be a major driver of city momentum across the globe as the tech giants and start-ups invest in new technologies and infrastructure and generate jobs. Several of the world’s most technology-rich cities appear in the Top 20 – including San Jose (Silicon Valley), Boston, San Francisco and Bangalore (Bengaluru). Technology is also an important factor in helping to boost the positions of cities such as London, New York, Sydney and Dublin, as well as China’s premier technology hubs – Beijing and Shenzhen.
• Despite economic slowdown, China is still home to some of the world’s most dynamic cities – and seven appear in the Top 20. Shanghai, Nanjing, Wuhan and Chongqing form a corridor of strong momentum along the Yangtze River, while the emerging megacity of Beijing-Tianjin in the north is showing high levels of dynamism. Shenzhen in the Pearl River Delta has found renewed energy on the back of its technology sector and neighbouring Guangzhou features just outside the Top 20.
• London tops this year’s CMI 2015 as a result of robust economic fundamentals, further boosted by large volumes of cross-border real estate investment and a positive outlook for commercial property prices. London also continues to cement its reputation as a global tech hub. It is joined in the Top 20 by Dublin, which has registered the world’s fastest growth in office rents over the past year.
Ho Chi Minh City is the biggest improver in the CMI 2015 and makes it into the Top 20 off the back of strong FDI, as companies look beyond China as a base for manufacturing. Construction levels are high, although growth rates are exaggerated by the small size of the existing commercial real estate market.
• Sydney and Melbourne have also improved markedly and are new entrants into the Top 20. The residential property sector is leading commercial property into upswing, while the technology sector is providing an unexpected boost to economic growth, particularly in Sydney.
• U.S. cities are largely represented in the Top 20 by technology-driven cities such as San Jose (Silicon Valley), Boston and San Francisco. Silicon Valley, as the global hub of the high-tech venture capital industry, sits in second position in CMI 2015, and San Francisco and Boston have been helped by strong growth in property investment during 2014. Creative TAMI (technology, advertising, media and information) sectors are underpinning New York’s position in the Top 20, while the technology and creative hubs of Austin, Seattle, Los Angeles and San Diego appear just outside the Top 20.
• Sub-Saharan Africa makes its debut in the Top 20, represented by Nairobi. As a regional base for global corporations expanding into Africa and as the continent’s top technology city (‘Silicon Savannah’), Nairobi is witnessing high levels of property construction, its rental markets are buoyant and real estate transparency is improving. The city has also emerged as an important hub for the continent’s rapidly growing air transport network.
• Bangalore (Bengaluru) provides India’s first appearance in the Top 20. Robust demand for commercial space from the technology sector and associated IT-enabled services is boosting office rents. While outside the Top 20, Delhi and Mumbai are beginning to see an increase in momentum as economic growth picks up and demand for prime office space strengthens.
Dubai remains in the Top 20, although its rank has dropped as growth in commercial real estate prices moderates to more sustainable levels. Momentum is expected to continue with activity bolstered by major project spending relating to Dubai hosting the World Expo 2020.
• Hong Kong and Singapore have recorded a decline in their CMI positions, due to a weaker outlook for their commercial real estate markets, which, in the case of Hong Kong, has been sufficient to push it temporarily out of the Top 20. Nonetheless, the two cities still feature strongly on socio-economic momentum and long- term fundamentals.
• Tokyo has also fallen just outside the Top 20. Economic momentum waned in 2014, but Tokyo is a city with newfound energy and its commercial property market remains buoyant. We expect it to return to the Top 20 in future CMIs as momentum builds in preparation for the 2020 Olympics.
• Continental European cities are, once again, notable by their absence in the top ranks of the Index. Even so, they continue to score impressively on long-term fundamentals, with the Dutch Randstad cities, Munich, Paris, Berlin and the Nordic capitals of Copenhagen, Helsinki and Stockholm performing well on education, innovation and environment measures.
JLL’s 2015 City Momentum Index assesses 120 cities with a weighted overall score based on 37 short-term and longer term variables on real estate and socio-economic factors.
Providing a new view into what makes cities dynamic and attractive for future opportunities, JLL (NYSE: JLL) today released its second annual City Momentum Index(CMI). London, San Jose, Beijing, Shenzhen and Shanghai lead the 2015 CMI, which also features six new cities in the top 20: Ho Chi Minh City (6) Sydney (11), Dublin (14), Nairobi (15), Melbourne (16) and Nanjing (20). The CMI goes beyond traditional static economic rankings by delving into the underlying drivers that keep cities competitive and dynamic, as well as identifying signals for change that will impact their future.
Jeremy Kelly, Director, Global Research for JLL, explains the differentiating factors of the CMI, “While typical real estate performance rankings reveal most active investment and occupier markets, JLL’s CMI identifies the global cities changing fastest. By widening our lens to combine real estate dynamics such as investment, property prices and construction with socio-economic factors, we can better understand the drivers of city success by examining signals of change over the years.
“Having strong momentum presents cities with opportunities, but also risk. While the 2015 CMI highlights a city’s success and pace of change today, it doesn’t guarantee the future performance of commercial real estate or identify the hottest investment markets. We have seen the technology industry driving cities’ real estate markets year over year, but other trends, ranging from environment to education, impacted the pace of change, resulting in a shuffle of cities’ positions on the CMI,” Kelly said.
The list of top 20 cities reveals major trends and changes driving global momentum:
Technology-rich cities dominate the CMI.Several of the world’s most tech-rich cities maintained a position in the top 20, including London (1), San Jose (2), Boston (7) and San Francisco (9). Newcomers to the top 20, thanks to the technology sector, include Sydney (11), Bangalore (12), Dublin (14), Nairobi (15) and Melbourne (16).China’s cities buoyant despite economic slowdown. China’s recent economic performance has not impeded seven of its cities appearing in the global top 20, underpinned by the continued expansion of its domestic market and middle class population. Trade and connectivity prove critical to Chinese cities, demonstrated in the “corridor of dynamics” along the Yangtze River connecting Shanghai (5), Wuhan (8), Chongqing (10) and Nanjing (20). As China moves up the value chain, the technology sector has become an important driver of city success, helping to boost cities such as Beijing (3) and Shenzhen (4).London and Dublin outperform continental Europe. While continental European cities were once again absent from the list of most dynamic cities, London topped the 2015 CMI and Dublin entered the top 20 at 14. London’s strong economic fundamentals, cross-border investment, positive outlook and reputation as a global tech hub boosted its position. Dublin is currently the world’s fastest-growing office rental market.
While six new cities entered the 2015 CMI, established tech and creative hubs, such as Austin, Los Angeles and Seattle, dropped to just outside the top 20. Hong Kong and Tokyo fell outside this year’s top 20 due to a temporary loss of impetus, but nonetheless have strong long term fundamentals. For the first time, cities in India and Sub-Saharan Africa were represented in the CMI due to the robust demand for office space from technology companies (Bangalore, 12) and MNC expansion (Nairobi, 15).
Short-term socio-economic momentum variables (40 percent of the model) include recent and projected changes in GDP and population, air passenger traffic, corporate headquarter presence and recent levels of foreign direct investment as a proportion of a city’s economy.
Short-term commercial real estate momentum variables (30 percent of the model) include recent and projected percentage changes in office net absorption, office construction, office rents, shopping mall construction and retail rents, direct commercial real estate investment volumes and real estate transparency.
Longer term variables (30 percent of the model) that are likely to determine future economic strength and real estate momentum include high-value incubator indicators such as university presence and educational infrastructure, innovation capability, international patent applications and presence of technology and venture capital firms.
Tech Hubs Dominate Most Dynamic Cities List
The Top 20 cities in the CMI 2015 reveal that:
• The technology sector continues to be a major driver of city momentum across the globe as the tech giants and start-ups invest in new technologies and infrastructure and generate jobs. Several of the world’s most technology-rich cities appear in the Top 20 – including San Jose (Silicon Valley), Boston, San Francisco and Bangalore (Bengaluru). Technology is also an important factor in helping to boost the positions of cities such as London, New York, Sydney and Dublin, as well as China’s premier technology hubs – Beijing and Shenzhen.
• Despite economic slowdown, China is still home to some of the world’s most dynamic cities – and seven appear in the Top 20. Shanghai, Nanjing, Wuhan and Chongqing form a corridor of strong momentum along the Yangtze River, while the emerging megacity of Beijing-Tianjin in the north is showing high levels of dynamism. Shenzhen in the Pearl River Delta has found renewed energy on the back of its technology sector and neighbouring Guangzhou features just outside the Top 20.
• London tops this year’s CMI 2015 as a result of robust economic fundamentals, further boosted by large volumes of cross-border real estate investment and a positive outlook for commercial property prices. London also continues to cement its reputation as a global tech hub. It is joined in the Top 20 by Dublin, which has registered the world’s fastest growth in office rents over the past year.
Ho Chi Minh City is the biggest improver in the CMI 2015 and makes it into the Top 20 off the back of strong FDI, as companies look beyond China as a base for manufacturing. Construction levels are high, although growth rates are exaggerated by the small size of the existing commercial real estate market.
• Sydney and Melbourne have also improved markedly and are new entrants into the Top 20. The residential property sector is leading commercial property into upswing, while the technology sector is providing an unexpected boost to economic growth, particularly in Sydney.
• U.S. cities are largely represented in the Top 20 by technology-driven cities such as San Jose (Silicon Valley), Boston and San Francisco. Silicon Valley, as the global hub of the high-tech venture capital industry, sits in second position in CMI 2015, and San Francisco and Boston have been helped by strong growth in property investment during 2014. Creative TAMI (technology, advertising, media and information) sectors are underpinning New York’s position in the Top 20, while the technology and creative hubs of Austin, Seattle, Los Angeles and San Diego appear just outside the Top 20.
• Sub-Saharan Africa makes its debut in the Top 20, represented by Nairobi. As a regional base for global corporations expanding into Africa and as the continent’s top technology city (‘Silicon Savannah’), Nairobi is witnessing high levels of property construction, its rental markets are buoyant and real estate transparency is improving. The city has also emerged as an important hub for the continent’s rapidly growing air transport network.
• Bangalore (Bengaluru) provides India’s first appearance in the Top 20. Robust demand for commercial space from the technology sector and associated IT-enabled services is boosting office rents. While outside the Top 20, Delhi and Mumbai are beginning to see an increase in momentum as economic growth picks up and demand for prime office space strengthens.
Dubai remains in the Top 20, although its rank has dropped as growth in commercial real estate prices moderates to more sustainable levels. Momentum is expected to continue with activity bolstered by major project spending relating to Dubai hosting the World Expo 2020.
• Hong Kong and Singapore have recorded a decline in their CMI positions, due to a weaker outlook for their commercial real estate markets, which, in the case of Hong Kong, has been sufficient to push it temporarily out of the Top 20. Nonetheless, the two cities still feature strongly on socio-economic momentum and long- term fundamentals.
• Tokyo has also fallen just outside the Top 20. Economic momentum waned in 2014, but Tokyo is a city with newfound energy and its commercial property market remains buoyant. We expect it to return to the Top 20 in future CMIs as momentum builds in preparation for the 2020 Olympics.
• Continental European cities are, once again, notable by their absence in the top ranks of the Index. Even so, they continue to score impressively on long-term fundamentals, with the Dutch Randstad cities, Munich, Paris, Berlin and the Nordic capitals of Copenhagen, Helsinki and Stockholm performing well on education, innovation and environment measures.
Last edited:
```lots of us chat in private as well
