The Chinese Economic Slowdown — How Does It Affect Japan?

[XenoEnsi-14]

I will agree with my man @Edison Chen . Sir @LeveragedBuyout brings a lot to the discussion table. He is much needed here in PDF, as he posits very sound points , especially in giving the American point of view. American posters are severely under-represented here. This is why I am calling more American participation in the East Asia section.

@gambit , @OCguy , @Peter C , @IsaacNewton , @F-22Raptor , @XenoEnsi-14 , @C130

I don't think I'm the right person to talk about Chinese economics, I'm pretty much anti-Chinese when it comes to economics and it's very tempting to go on rants. Anyways, I hope Japan makes it out better than the Chinese.

 

[Aepsilons]

I don't think I'm the right person to talk about Chinese economics, I'm pretty much anti-Chinese when it comes to economics and it's very tempting to go on rants. Anyways, I hope Japan makes it out better than the Chinese.

Thanks for your honest introspection. Hope to see you contribute here.

 

[XenoEnsi-14]

Thanks for your honest introspection. Hope to see you contribute here.

Thanks., maybe I might contribute but not likely.

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

I will agree with my man @Edison Chen . Sir @LeveragedBuyout brings a lot to the discussion table. He is much needed here in PDF, as he posits very sound points , especially in giving the American point of view. American posters are severely under-represented here. This is why I am calling more American participation in the East Asia section.

@gambit , @OCguy , @Peter C , @IsaacNewton , @F-22Raptor , @XenoEnsi-14 , @C130

Since I work in the financial sector and have full production access to everything including research (I can't even trade without clearance and no I'm not a PM) you'd think I'd be a perfect asset here. But alas as the joke about the Gynecologist who comes home to the naked wife at the door and says "oh god I see that all day..just leave me alone" I have lost all interest in economics. I don't even want to think about it. It's just numbers on a screen and some are prettier than others.

 

[UKBengali]

The article has some good points, if you read the whole thing.

However, saying that the Chinese GDP will not pass America's is strange, since our population is so much vastly larger. In fact, the World Bank believes China's GDP will surpass America's this year based on PPP, and soon after by nominal.

Frankly, there is no reason that the Mainland cannot reach the same GDP per capita as my city Hong Kong, we are the same Chinese people, with the same potential. And if that happens, China's total GDP will be beyond the roof, multiple times larger than the American economy, and far beyond anyone else.

That will be not so easy if you consider the amount of resources that China will need in order to be able to propel the living standards of 1.3 billion Chinese to the level of Hong Kong residents.

China needs to be ready to create the mightiest military in the world in order to be able to secure the world-wide trading relationships to make this happen.

 

[LeveragedBuyout]

@Edison Chen @Nihonjin1051

The feeling is mutual, both of you are among the very few whose posts I look forward to as a chance to gain some insight. PDF would be much easier to use if I could put everyone on ignore and then have a negative list of about 10 members who would be excepted. In any case, thanks for the vote of confidence.

@Peter C I know what you mean, but on the other hand, it's so all-consuming that I never have a point in the day where I can escape it. I admire your ability to set it aside for other pursuits. That said, any perspective you can contribute would be most appreciated.

 

[Nike]

A nice reading, although i am always wonder, what kind of Chinese recipes to propel such an amazing growth rates for over the last 20 years? It was such an amazing feat in which cannot be compared to any other Economics miracles in which has been happened in Japan, South Korean, Singapore, and Taiwan or such in the past. China has bring their miracles into another of higher level than the rests.

Once, Indonesia trying to emulate the same Economic programme like the China has did in the past, like propelling export, trying to catch foreign investment, and bla-bla but in the end we are stuck in some or other matters and some ended with a terrible ending story. In the ends, every country has their unique propositions and one thing for sure we must find our way to tackle our own problems. And i like his point of view regarding Japan-China-US relationship should be, those three countries together are the three great economic powerhouse in Earth, a much healthy relationship is better for the rest of the world.

 

[xunzi]

That will be not so easy if you consider the amount of resources that China will need in order to be able to propel the living standards of 1.3 billion Chinese to the level of Hong Kong residents.

China needs to be ready to create the mightiest military in the world in order to be able to secure the world-wide trading relationships to make this happen.

If we have HK GDP per capital across China, we would be 3-4x more powerful than the US. Just imagine $2 trillion dollar annual military budget. 10 AC? how about 30?

I don't think that is possible. There is not enough resources for it. Though getting 20,000 GDP capital is possible with PPP in the 30,000 range. That is already powerful enough to overcome the US.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

That will be not so easy if you consider the amount of resources that China will need in order to be able to propel the living standards of 1.3 billion Chinese to the level of Hong Kong residents.

China needs to be ready to create the mightiest military in the world in order to be able to secure the world-wide trading relationships to make this happen.

Our military focus is more of a defensive nature, and as long as we can make it so that a blockade is too costly for an adversary to consider, that would suffice.

This strategy is based around large numbers of our DF-21D (the world's first ASBM platform) and swarms of anti-ship cruise missiles.

These missiles have significant range, which means we can fire them at blockading ships from a great distance, with minimal risk.

This is supplemented with our submarine fleet, which is one of the largest in the world. These can make hit-and-run attacks with long range cruise missiles and torpedoes, making a very effective deterrent against blockading navies.

So we can exchange endless numbers of cheap mass-manufactured anti-ship missiles, in order to destroy expensive enemy ships and naval personnel.

This is a strong deterrent against blockades, which will become solidified once we start inducting DF-21D with HGV warheads. Which would not only make them much more maneuverable, and nearly impossible to intercept, but would also double their range (allowing us to strike enemy ships from halfway across the world).


As for having enough resources, China has the largest Shale gas reserves on the planet, enough to last thousands of years by itself.

And vast amounts of potential renewable energy:

China could meet its total energy needs by wind power alone by 2030 - Harvard Gazette

A team of environmental scientists from Harvard and Tsinghua University has demonstrated the enormous potential for wind-generated electricity in China.

Using extensive meteorological data and incorporating the Chinese government’s energy-bidding and financial restrictions for delivering wind power, the researchers estimate that wind alone has the potential to meet the country’s electricity demands projected for 2030.

It will take a few decades to properly harness our domestic energy potential to that degree, so all we have to do is hold out until then, by constantly increasing our deterrence capability.

 

[UKBengali]

@Chinese-Dragon :

In order to be able to reach and sustain first world living standards for 1.3 billion people it may not be enough to be able to stop any blockade near China's coasts.

The vast resources that China would need just won't be available in your country or even neighbouring countries where Chinese air and land power will be dominant

Let me give you a hypothetical scenario where the US tries to actively stop transfer of natural resources from some South American country to China:

A ship carrying iron ore to China is intercepted by the US Navy on some false pretext. Now the US can do this as its Navy is still more powerful than the Chinese one. China won't be threatening to fire nuclear missiles to try to deter this type of action as it is not a proportionate response and won't work anyway since the US will say they will retaliate.

Now what China will want is to have a Navy at least as powerful as the US, actually it may need to be somewhat more powerful, that the US does not even dare think about doing this since it would mean having to go head to head with the formidable Chinese Navy.

Remember how the more powerful US Navy forced a Soviet capitulation in the 1962 Cuban missile-crisis.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

@Chinese-Dragon :

In order to be able to reach and sustain first world living standards for 1.3 billion people it may not be enough to be able to stop any blockade near China's coasts.

The vast resources that China would need just won't be available in your country or even neighbouring countries where Chinese air and land power will be dominant

Let me give you a hypothetical scenario where the US tries to actively stop transfer of natural resources from some South American country to China:

A ship carrying iron ore to China is intercepted by the US Navy on some false pretext. Now the US can do this as its Navy is still more powerful than the Chinese one. China won't be threatening to fire nuclear missiles to try to deter this type of action as it is not a proportionate response and won't work anyway since the US will say they will retaliate.

Now what China will want is to have a Navy at least as powerful as the US, actually it may need to be somewhat more powerful, that the US does not even dare think about doing this since it would mean having to go head to head with the formidable Chinese Navy.

Remember how the more powerful US Navy forced a Soviet capitulation in the 1962 Cuban missile-crisis.

True, that's why we're developing what a lot of Western commentators refer to as an "Anti-Navy".

We have no need to have 11 Carrier Battle Groups like America has, we have no interest in becoming the world hegemon.

Would it be possible to build that many, sure. Even Japan back in the 1940's had around 11 aircraft carriers. But there is no need for us to have so many, our doctrine is defensive in nature.

What we need to be able to do is destroy enemy navies in a defensive manner. The DF-21D when upgraded with an HGV warhead, will be able to sink a Carrier halfway across the world. Now who would be willing to risk such an enormous cost (not just economic but in terms of naval personnel) to mount a blockade against us, which can be counteracted with our pipelines to Central Asia and Russia, our own vast domestic reserves of oil and gas, not to mention our strategic emergency reserve, which means that they would have to keep up the blockade for years to have any meaningful impact. Meanwhile sustaining constant losses from long-range anti-ship ballistic missiles, that's a huge conventional deterrent, without needing to go nuclear.

Having the kind of global power projection that America has, even if we have the money, it wouldn't be justified within the next few decades at least. That's the kind of power projection needed for a global hegemon, not for a China that is trying to become a developed country. We will build up our capabilities to a level that is suitable for our economic power, but I don't think it will be necessary to match America in military terms to have a formidable conventional deterrent.

 

[UKBengali]

@Chinese-Dragon :

You make some valid points but I think that economics cannot be separated from politics.

The US/West in general may not take too kindly to governments that are having a mutually beneficial trading relationship with China. If China does not have the military capability to protect them, then there may be little to deter regime-change to bring in Western puppets, so these countries stop supplying China.

West will always want to stay on top and a rich China will not allow them to do that.

 

[pher]

A nice reading, although i am always wonder, what kind of Chinese recipes to propel such an amazing growth rates for over the last 20 years? It was such an amazing feat in which cannot be compared to any other Economics miracles in which has been happened in Japan, South Korean, Singapore, and Taiwan or such in the past. China has bring their miracles into another of higher level than the rests.

Once, Indonesia trying to emulate the same Economic programme like the China has did in the past, like propelling export, trying to catch foreign investment, and bla-bla but in the end we are stuck in some or other matters and some ended with a terrible ending story. In the ends, every country has their unique propositions and one thing for sure we must find our way to tackle our own problems. And i like his point of view regarding Japan-China-US relationship should be, those three countries together are the three great economic powerhouse in Earth, a much healthy relationship is better for the rest of the world.

Let me give you a clue. The miracles of those nations you mentioned all happened under the rule of one party or dictatorship, and they only become democratic after being rich. This is also apply for western nations. There is no single country in the world which democratisied itself into developed nation. Do your homework.

 

[Nike]

Let me give you a clue. The miracles of those nations you mentioned all happened under the rule of one party or dictatorship, and they only become democratic after being rich. This is also apply for western nations. There is no single country in the world which democratisied itself into developed nation. Do your homework.

Nah, there is several countries who apply Democracy and successfully develop their Nation, such as France, USA, Australia, West Germany and so on. As i mentioned before Indonesia was once ruled by dictatorships and nominally single state party and in the end it bring chaos and terrible nightmare into us. So we embraced democracy right now

 

[pher]

Nah, there is several countries who apply Democracy and successfully develop their Nation, such as France, USA, Australia, West Germany and so on. As i mentioned before Indonesia was once ruled by dictatorships and nominally single state party and in the end it bring chaos and terrible nightmare into us. So we embraced democracy right now

US? go back to check in what year its woman and black people have the rights to vote? as for German, its status come from Bismarck and so on.

There is two die-hard democratic nations in asia, that is Phlippine and India.