STUDY: Bangladesh-Myanmar -Strategic partnership

[kobiraaz]

THE strategic and security outlook of Bangladesh is governed by the principles of friendship with all nations and enmity with none, and of preventive diplomacy to engage in constructive dialogues with other nations to reduce risks of conflicts and to resolve disputes in an amicable manner. So, one should not be surprised that Bangladesh is very reluctant to view her neighbours as a source of security threat despite the fact that she is having some bilateral issues with her neighbours, particularly India, and Myanmar due to their aggressive policy, in the shape of land and maritime border demarcation, refugee influx, illegal drugs and small arms trade, and human trafficking. Despite our policy of harmonious and amicable coexistence with our neighbours, we should not be oblivious of the risks to peace and stability in the border and, therefore, should take cognisance of factors that could create threats to our national security while pursuing a friendly policy toward Myanmar.

Bilateral irritants

Maritime border demarcation

Being surrounded by India and Myanmar, Bangladesh can hardly overemphasise the need to demarcate its maritime boundary on just and equitable basis to assert her sovereignty over its resource rich exclusive economic zone and beyond through which almost 90 per cent of its external trade is conducted. Failure in delineating maritime border may cause Bangladesh to be reduced to a mere land-locked country and to lose its strategic significance and relevance in South Asian context. The recent intrusion of the Myanmarese navy inside Bangladesh’s sea territories is uncalled for and contrary to the spirit of amicable coexistence (‘Bangladesh asks China for help in Myanmar sea row’, Reuters, November 5, 2008). It is very unfortunate that the Myanmarese government sent naval ships inside Bangladesh’s maritime boundary ignoring the fact that they are yet to demarcate the maritime borders with Bangladesh and that they should not venture into exploring oil and gas in disputed water territories until a just and equitable solution is found in light of international maritime laws. But further attempts by Myanmar to intrude into Bangladesh’s maritime border may cause both the nations to get involved into expensive conflicts to have deleterious impact on their economies, people, and bilateral relations.

Rohingya refugee issue

Myanmar has poor human rights record for suppressing and depriving its minority communities of basic rights and privileges and, as a result of this, thousands of Muslim Rohingya refugees cross into Bangladesh territory to escape the military junta’s atrocities against them. The New York Times reported this year that ‘More than a quarter-million Rohingya – an ethnic Muslim minority from western Myanmar – have come here to southern Bangladesh to escape the hunger, humiliation and official brutalities in their homeland. Many have landed in a place called the Kutupalong Makeshift Camp... Every day more Rohingya arrive at the Bangladeshi camps, stateless, sun-blasted refugees carrying their meagre bundles. The newcomers, largely from Rakhine State in Myanmar, are often so traumatised that they’re unable to tell aid workers what they have fled’ (‘Traumatized Rohingya flee squalid life in Bangladesh’, the New York Times, February 15). Bangladesh with the help of the international community is making relentless efforts to resolve this issue through diplomatic channels but due to the Myanmarese military junta’s stubbornness, the lingering refugee problem is creating strain on local economy and is having debilitating effect on security and social harmony. The military junta’s refusal to recognise Rohyngias as citizens and its continuous attempt to push them inside Bangladesh territory may lead to a conflict if the situation is not properly handled.

Illegal small arms trade

Illegal small arms trade is a flourishing business along the Bangladesh-Myanmar border despite all the efforts by the Bangladesh Rifles to curb such activities in the border areas. If Myanmar fails to cooperate in stopping illegal arms trade in the border areas, criminals and terrorist groups may create threats to internal law and order situation of Bangladesh.

Illegal drug trade

Because of long military rule, self-imposed isolation, and economic embargo by the international community, the military junta relies heavily on poppy cultivation and illegal drug trading for revenues. Myanmar has been the second largest opium producer in the world (‘Opium Cultivation Blossoms in Burma’, News | English, October 12, 2007) and being situated near the notorious ‘golden triangle (ibid) – a heaven for illegal drug trading – Bangladesh faces an imminent danger and this cannot be tackled without full cooperation, which is unlikely to be forthcoming, from Myanmar.

Unfriendly NASAKA

The Myanmarese border security force known as NASAKA is a matter of concern for Bangladesh. This particular organisation is involved in all sorts of human rights violation, illegal trading, killing, and whatnot. Abducting Bangladeshi woodcutters and fishermen and demanding money as ransom for their release has become a habit of NASAKA. According to union parishad chairman Firoz Ahmed, ‘They have been attacking us frequently, firing at fishermen and beating them, and also looting their valuables. In many cases, they kidnap our fishermen and release them after taking ransoms’ (‘11 fishermen hurt in Nasaka firing in Bay’, The Daily Star, June 6). Unless NASAKA is turned into a professional force guided by a set of code of conduct, a border conflict may break out between Myanmar and Bangladesh because of irrational behaviour of NASAKA to destroy cross-border peace, stability, and tranquillity.

Bangla-US defence relations

Bangladesh is the seventh most populous country in the world with an economy larger than the combined economies of Myanmar, Nepal, Bhutan, Sri-Lanka, and Maldives, and she is also a land bridge between SAARC and ASEAN. Her solid commitments to work with the international community to fight against terrorism, to improve socioeconomic condition through trade liberalisation, to empower women to end gender discrimination, and to play leading role to foster regional cooperation through SAARC have profusely been appreciated by the US administration and its allies. Consequently, there has been increased cooperation between the armed forces of Bangladesh and the US. But this has been construed as a threat to Myanmar’s national security by top Myanmarese generals who have identified Bangladesh, along with Thailand, as their primary security threat (‘Watch out for Bangladesh and Thailand: Military commander’, Burma Myanmar News, Breaking News, Business, Ed-Op, Analysis, January 30).

Nuclear factor

Isolated, sanctioned, and pressured by the western powers to improve human rights record and to restore democracy, Myanmar has established links with North Korea and Russia for nuclear cooperation. It is alleged that the military junta is receiving help from North Korea to develop nuclear weapons to strengthen its own position vis-à-vis the western powers and to negotiate on the issues of human rights and democracy from position of strength. A nuclear Myanmar, however, could have a harmful effect on regional security and stability. US secretary of state Hilary Clinton warned the world about Myanmar’s suspected nuclear programme. ‘It would be destabilising for the region,’ she said. ‘It would pose a direct threat to Burma’s neighbours’ (‘Burma suspected of forming nuclear link with North Korea’, The Guardian, UK, July 21). If Myanmar succeeds to surreptitiously acquire nuclear technology, it will change the regional balance of power situation and Bangladesh being the closest and a non-nuclear neighbour will be the worst victim of this change.


Analysis of strategic landscape

MYANMAR is a pariah state and has little influence over the international community to form an opinion in favour of them. They are under heavy economic and military embargo for human rights violation and lack of respect for democracy. Having said that we should not lose sight of growing relations between China and Myanmar, and it must be taken into consideration by Bangladesh and the international community because China, as a regional power, will play an important role in any conflict between countries adjacent to her border. The Myanmarese military has been completely revamped with the help of Chinese assistance. It has been reported by international media that ‘China sold more than 22 A5M attackers and at least 50 F-7 fighters to the Myanmar air force in 1991 and 1993. Satellite photos have also shown two Chinese-made Y-8 transporters at the Yangon airport. Also, 12 Chinese Lang Chang K-8 jet trainer aircraft have been sold to the country in the past seven years’ (‘China arms Myanmar military’, Latest news, Latest News Headlines, news articles, news video, news photos - UPI.com, March 14, 2008). Myanmar has raised new divisions with supporting units and hardware to make it one of the strongest military powers in South East Asia. They have also actively searched for new suppliers to reduce import risks and approached Israel, Ukraine, and Russia for a range of military hardware from artillery pieces, armoured personnel carriers to sophisticated jet fighters. If additional manpower, new weapon systems, improved logistic backup conditions are combined with their enormous experience that they have gained through fighting a counterinsurgency war against the rebels in the last fifty years, they automatically become a greater military power than Bangladesh. But their weakness lies in their fragile economy and their isolation from the international community which, I believe, put them in a disadvantageous position to achieve a desired end in a war against Bangladesh.

China has a long-term strategic interest in Myanmar because of latter’s convenient geographic location, which is the gateway to Bay of Bengal, and huge energy reserve. Aside from installing a number of listening posts in strategically important Coco Islands, China has also heavily invested in Myanmar’s seaports to develop docking, repair, maintenance, and refuelling facilities capable of catering for the needs of Chinese navy. So, a solid strategic partnership has been built between the two neighbours for mutual benefit and interest.

As a permanent member of the UN Security council, China has the veto power that can be used as a shield against western pressure to discipline the military junta of Myanmar. But whether or not China will use its veto power to rescue Myanmar is subject to Bangladesh’s relative strategic value to China vis-à-vis Myanmar and to the degree of involvement of the US in the conflict. Strategic analysts believe that China acknowledges the strategic significance of Bangladesh because of its peculiar geographic location, which cuts the north-eastern region off from the rest of India, acts as a bridge between SAARC and ASEAN, and offers access to Indian Ocean via the Bay of Bengal. The growing Chinese economic and military assistance to Bangladesh is a testament to latter’s strategic significance in South Asia. So in the end, China may end up being a peace broker between Bangladesh and Myanmar to prevent a conflict or to prevent the escalation of a conflict to ensure its neutrality and to limit the scope for western powers to play any significant role in the conflict to protect its own strategic interest in the region.

In any conflict between Bangladesh and Myanmar, America will side with Bangladesh simply because both the nations believe in democratic values, freedom of speech, respect for human rights, and terror-free world for global peace and stability. On the other hand, America is one of the staunchest critics of the Myanmarese military junta for its lack of respect for human rights and democracy. Americans have already imposed economic and arms embargo on Myanmar and have persuaded other western allies to do the same to put pressure on the military junta to restore democracy in the country ‘Britain wants more Myanmar sanctions over Suu Kyi, in.reuters.com, June 18). So, in a conflict situation, Bangladesh will find America on its side, but Myanmar will face even more isolation for attacking a democratic country. Britain and France, both seeking a regime change to restore democracy in Myanmar, will also join America to support Bangladesh in its fight against Myanmarese military junta.

Russia, being one of the few countries that supported the independence movement of Bangladesh and having a close defence relation with Myanmar, may find itself in a difficult diplomatic situation and may offer itself as a peace broker to maintain neutrality in a conflict situation.

India views Myanmar as an important country for the success of its ‘look east policy’ and as a good source of cheap energy reserve to meet its rising energy demand. India is also seeking to cultivate deep economic and defence relations with the military junta to counterbalance Chinese influence in Myanmar for its own strategic advantage. Once a solid supporter of Myanmar’s pro-democracy movement, India, for its own strategic and energy interests, has changed its policy toward Myanmar to establish bilateral relations based on the principles of non-interference in internal affairs to please the military junta. The policy shift by India has not gone unnoticed by international observers and China Post writes, ‘Once a staunch and vocal Aung San Suu Kyi supporter, India began engaging Myanmar’s military junta in the mid-1990s – a shift that has seen security, energy and strategic priorities override concerns over democracy and human rights... India is eyeing oil and gas fields in Myanmar and fears losing out to China in the race for strategic space in Asia’ (‘Energy needs, strategic concerns keep India silent on Myanmar’, China Post Online - Taiwan, News, Breaking News, World News, and News from Taiwan ???????????????-??????, July 17). At the same time, the policymakers of New Delhi are aware of their role in the independence movement of Bangladesh and her strategic significance for the security of north-east India. So overtly, India may seek neutrality in a conflict between Bangladesh and Myanmar, but they may extend covert support to Myanmar to put Bangladesh in a disadvantageous position so as to force Bangladesh to grant concessions in some vital outstanding issues such as maritime border demarcation, action against northeast insurgents, and transit rights.

Despite the bitter memories of 1971, both Bangladesh and Pakistan have moved forward and established economic, political, and defence relations based on mutual trust and benefit. Aside from religious sentiment, Pakistan acknowledges the strategic significance of Bangladesh because of latter’s geographic location and shared strategic outlook. So, Pakistan may provide moral and even some logistic support to Bangladesh in the event of a conflict between Bangladesh and Myanmar.

Being the third largest Muslim country in the world, Bangladesh is expected to get overwhelming moral and even some logistic support from the Arab nations as well.

Strategic objectives to attain

1. To form strategic partnership with Myanmar and to consider it an indispensable part of Bangladesh’s ‘look-east’ policy to enhance economic, diplomatic, cultural, business, and people to people contacts with all the South-East Asian nations and China

2. To earn the confidence and trust of the Myanmarese government and its people that Bangladesh is sincere about establishing bilateral relationship based on the policy of non-interference and utmost respect for each other’s sovereignty

3. To consider the Myanmarese armed forces a vital element in bilateral relations and to form defence partnership with them for peace, security, and
stability

4. To maintain favourable balance of power situation with Myanmar

5. To resolve any disputes through dialogue and to avoid the possibility of military confrontations

6. In case a military confrontation is unavoidable, limit the scope of confrontation to minimise the loss of lives and properties

7. In case a conflict takes the shape of a full-scale war, break the will of the Myanmarese military to fight by inflicting heavy damage upon its men, machine, and economy

Strategies to follow

1. To choose and implement AH (Asian Highway) 41 route to connect to Myanmar and to the rest of ASEAN nations

2. To form a bilateral security forum to discuss matters relating to national and regional security and to consistently follow a transparent policy with regards to Bangla-US military cooperation to assure the military government that the existing defence relations with the US has no anti-Myanmar bias and that Bangladesh will never allow a foreign power to use its soil to harm a neighbour

3. To increase defence cooperation between the two nations in the field of training, military exercise, and exchange of sensitive security information under a mutually agreed upon defence cooperation framework

4. To accelerate overall military modernisation process and to increase security contacts with ASEAN Regional Forum and China

5. To launch an intense diplomatic effort, both bilateral and multilateral involving China, and the UN to defuse tension

6. To use the border security force to repel sporadic border incursions and to keep the army on a stand by mode to continue with diplomatic efforts to diffuse tension

7. To create a naval blockade against Myanmar to take control of its commercial shipping lanes and to use full military might to force the aggressor to retreat and then to ask for help from China, America and its allies, and the Muslim countries to achieve a desired end in the conflict

Concluding observations

AS A mature and active regional player, Bangladesh should recognise the opportunities from a healthy and peaceful relation with Myanmar while remain alert at the challenges that get thrown at her because of Myanmar’s political, economical, and strategic weaknesses. For Myanmar, Bangladesh is a country of $225 billion with an open market, liberal investment climate, modern technology, and the most cost effective route to establish economic relations with India.

For Bangladesh, Myanmar also offers the most cost effective route to connect to ASEAN nations and to China. The trade and military significance of such a road network is enormous for Bangladesh. The combined size of the ASEAN and Chinese economies are even bigger than that of Japan. Bangladesh’s geographical proximity to South-East Asia gives her the unique opportunity to connect two major regional forums, SAARC and ASEAN, through Myanmar to enhance inter regional economic, trade, cultural and security interactions, to transform herself into a regional commercial hub, and to contribute constructively to regional stability through regional security forums such as ARF.

Strategically, Bangladesh can improve its balance power situation with regional heavyweights by establishing relationships based on mutual interdependence and benefits and therefore attain more flexibility in devising policies that will protect her own national interests and will affect the future strategic direction of South and Southeast Asia.

So, Bangladesh should emphasise preventive diplomacy to eliminate the risks of conflicts with Myanmar and should assure its government and people of Bangladesh’s intentions for establishing bilateral relations based on the policy of non-interference and non- aggression.

 

[mil-avia]

Bangladesh-Myanmar related Link 1, Link 2, Link 3 and Link 4

Bangladesh COAS Gen Abdul Mubeen, and chief of Burma's Air Force, Lt Gen Myat Hein :

Nasaka - BGB Meeting :

 

[mil-avia]

Myanmar Air Force chief Lt Gen Myat Hein visits the Chitmorom area in Kaptai upazila of Rangamati district 27 April 2011 :

 

[Md Akmal]

@ We must maintain a very cordial relation with Myanmar under any circumstances. In future we should also build a road as well as rail link with Myanmar. But the problem is Military junta of Myanmar is very rigid. We have lot of issues with Myanmar. But should be sorted out diplomatically.

@ We should think of any serious conflit with Myanmar. But I am in a serious doubt ?? Should AL remains in 2nd term in power we might have to fight a limited war with Myanmar with the instigation of India. I remember a year back or so once the relation with Myanmar was not good due to marital land disputes our army was on red alert and many even deployed on the border areas.

 

[mohammed007]

is myanmar occupyin bd s land

 

[Md Akmal]

is myanmar occupyin bd s land

@ No land is being occupiad by Myanmar. But we have a lot of refugee problem with Myanmar. Many muslims refugees are being thrown out from Arakan by the Myanmar Govt and now they are staying at Teknaf and Coxes Bazar. There is a dispute of meritime boundary on the Bay of Bengal.