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S-400 and its implications

walterbibikow

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“India and Pakistan can agree on one thing: neither wants the other one around”, writes Tim Marshall in his book “Revenge of Geography”. The states that consider each other their rivals are always embroiled in a security dilemma. If one state adds any new weapon to its defences, then other states comprehend this as a power imbalance. Hence, in return, the second state will also boost its defence to maintain the balance of power. This spiral goes on and both states continue developing their defence. Such is the case of Pakistan and India, the arch-rivals which since independence, have fought four wars. India wants hegemony in the region while Pakistan is a major obstacle for India. India is following an offensive realist policy to maximize its power, its acquisition of S-400 and deployment at the Pakistan border is destabilizing regional stability. S-400 is a “mobile air-defence system” that has the capability to engage cruise missiles, aircraft and ballistic missiles. S-400 attracts many states to buy it because of its advanced technology. It has engagement radar, and surveillance radar and can fire four types of missiles, including a short range of up to 40km, medium range of up to 120km, long range of up to 250km, and missiles up to a range of 400km. India has been trying hard to acquire the S-400 air defence system. The only hindrance was the danger of sanctions imposed by the US under Countering American Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), which allows the US President to impose sanctions on states that engage in arms deals with Russia. New Delhi is Washington’s partner in countering Beijing. India has got a waiver from the US because Washington cannot impose sanctions on New Delhi as it would create ill feelings against America in India. The US needs India in the Indo-Pacific. It is a major non-NATO ally of the US being part of the QUAD that is meant to counter China in the region. There are several ambitions that have pushed New Delhi to acquire S-400. Obviously, military might is considered a major determinant to acquire hegemony in the region
As Mearsheimer states, the “states must accumulate maximum power for themselves and should contend to flip the balance of power in their favour”; India is thus following the same hegemonic designs. It has found this as state-of-the-art weaponry which can strategically upgrade its military. In addition to this, New Delhi wants to establish multi-layer air defence over Mumbai and the capital. It is using indigenous air defence systems i.e. “Prithvi Air Defence” (PAD) and “Advanced Air Defence” (AAD).

S-400 will provide India with a second layer of air defence. Moreover, India wants to deter Pakistan’s aircraft as stated by Air Chief Marshal (retd) B S Dhanoa, who says the purpose of the S-400 missile system and Rafale is to hit Pakistani aircraft inside the Pakistan air space and not when they come inside the Indian territory”. Another important factor behind the Indian acquisition of the S-400 is that Beijing deployed the same S-400 in 2018. India and China have engaged in war in 1962 and skirmished in Ladakh and the Galwan Valley in 2020. The Indian acquisition of the S-400 has serious implications for Pakistan. If India deploys the S-400 in Jalandhar, then it can target Islamabad. If India decides to deploy it in Amritsar, then Pakistani cities including Peshawar would be in their range. The deployment of the S-400 would make India think that it is invincible and this feeling would lead to aggressive postures by India.New Delhi will further increase the threats to Islamabad. The recent firing of missiles in the territory of Pakistan from India is an example of any adverse event that can give rise to war between the two rivals. India can exacerbate any such situation because now it has a solid defence system. In addition to this, New Delhi has thought “No-First-Use-Policy”, yet recent statements by Indian officials suggest that India can change this policy. The country that can face the aggressive designs of India is Pakistan. There are multiple options for Pakistan. First, it can follow New Delhi and purchase the same defence system although, given the condition of Pakistan’s economy, it is currently not possible for Islamabad. Another option for Pakistan is to develop delivery systems that can exhaust the Indian defence system. The recent achievement of Pakistan was the development of “Ababeel” like Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicles (MIRV). It has a range of 2,200 km and can target multiple missiles that can exhaust the S-400. Moreover, the indigenous missiles of Pakistan have capabilities to bypass the S-400. Another option for Islamabad is to develop hypersonic missiles that cannot be detected by S-400. In addition to this, Pakistan can develop electric technologies that can be used to jam the S-400 radars. In nutshell, Pakistan will definitely be impacted by the deployment of the S-400 air defence system by India. But, the threat needs to be countered as immediately as possible. It is not insurmountable, however. Pakistan would have to take the above measures in order to counter the Indian air defence system in case of any hostility
 
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“India and Pakistan can agree on one thing: neither wants the other one around”, writes Tim Marshall in his book “Revenge of Geography”. The states that consider each other their rivals are always embroiled in a security dilemma. If one state adds any new weapon to its defences, then other states comprehend this as a power imbalance. Hence, in return, the second state will also boost its defence to maintain the balance of power. This spiral goes on and both states continue developing their defence. Such is the case of Pakistan and India, the arch-rivals which since independence, have fought four wars. India wants hegemony in the region while Pakistan is a major obstacle for India. India is following an offensive realist policy to maximize its power, its acquisition of S-400 and deployment at the Pakistan border is destabilizing regional stability. S-400 is a “mobile air-defence system” that has the capability to engage cruise missiles, aircraft and ballistic missiles. S-400 attracts many states to buy it because of its advanced technology. It has engagement radar, and surveillance radar and can fire four types of missiles, including a short range of up to 40km, medium range of up to 120km, long range of up to 250km, and missiles up to a range of 400km. India has been trying hard to acquire the S-400 air defence system. The only hindrance was the danger of sanctions imposed by the US under Countering American Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), which allows the US President to impose sanctions on states that engage in arms deals with Russia. New Delhi is Washington’s partner in countering Beijing. India has got a waiver from the US because Washington cannot impose sanctions on New Delhi as it would create ill feelings against America in India. The US needs India in the Indo-Pacific. It is a major non-NATO ally of the US being part of the QUAD that is meant to counter China in the region. There are several ambitions that have pushed New Delhi to acquire S-400. Obviously, military might is considered a major determinant to acquire hegemony in the region
As Mearsheimer states, the “states must accumulate maximum power for themselves and should contend to flip the balance of power in their favour”; India is thus following the same hegemonic designs. It has found this as state-of-the-art weaponry which can strategically upgrade its military. In addition to this, New Delhi wants to establish multi-layer air defence over Mumbai and the capital. It is using indigenous air defence systems i.e. “Prithvi Air Defence” (PAD) and “Advanced Air Defence” (AAD).

S-400 will provide India with a second layer of air defence. Moreover, India wants to deter Pakistan’s aircraft as stated by Air Chief Marshal (retd) B S Dhanoa, who says the purpose of the S-400 missile system and Rafale is to hit Pakistani aircraft inside the Pakistan air space and not when they come inside the Indian territory”. Another important factor behind the Indian acquisition of the S-400 is that Beijing deployed the same S-400 in 2018. India and China have engaged in war in 1962 and skirmished in Ladakh and the Galwan Valley in 2020. The Indian acquisition of the S-400 has serious implications for Pakistan. If India deploys the S-400 in Jalandhar, then it can target Islamabad. If India decides to deploy it in Amritsar, then Pakistani cities including Peshawar would be in their range. The deployment of the S-400 would make India think that it is invincible and this feeling would lead to aggressive postures by India.New Delhi will further increase the threats to Islamabad. The recent firing of missiles in the territory of Pakistan from India is an example of any adverse event that can give rise to war between the two rivals. India can exacerbate any such situation because now it has a solid defence system. In addition to this, New Delhi has thought “No-First-Use-Policy”, yet recent statements by Indian officials suggest that India can change this policy. The country that can face the aggressive designs of India is Pakistan. There are multiple options for Pakistan. First, it can follow New Delhi and purchase the same defence system although, given the condition of Pakistan’s economy, it is currently not possible for Islamabad. Another option for Pakistan is to develop delivery systems that can exhaust the Indian defence system. The recent achievement of Pakistan was the development of “Ababeel” like Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicles (MIRV). It has a range of 2,200 km and can target multiple missiles that can exhaust the S-400. Moreover, the indigenous missiles of Pakistan have capabilities to bypass the S-400. Another option for Islamabad is to develop hypersonic missiles that cannot be detected by S-400. In addition to this, Pakistan can develop electric technologies that can be used to jam the S-400 radars. In nutshell, Pakistan will definitely be impacted by the deployment of the S-400 air defence system by India. But, the threat needs to be countered as immediately as possible. It is not insurmountable, however. Pakistan would have to take the above measures in order to counter the Indian air defence system in case of any hostility

Highly over rated system.


S-400 can be defeated and detryoed by MLRS .
 
Highly over rated system.


S-400 can be defeated and detryoed by MLRS .
Anti aircraft system

 
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Highly over rated system.


S-400 can be defeated and detryoed by MLRS .
S 400 is not deployed at borders that can destroyed by MLRS...

If drone or fighter aircraft will be used than first they have to bypass air defense missiles from borders itself...

S400 mostly will be used protection against incoming missiles.
 
S 400 is not deployed at borders that can destroyed by MLRS...

If drone or fighter aircraft will be used than first they have to bypass air defense missiles from borders itself...

S400 mostly will be used protection against incoming missiles.
Most of these strategic systems are deployed at key sites and their targeting ranges barely touch the border. But, they are vulnerable to certain strategic weapons and the Russians have kept theirs behind layer AD as well.

The greater threat India has comes from MRSAM and potential LRSAM systems. Not what are generally systems with limited engagement capabilities when it comes to operations on the forward line of troops for any foreseeable Indian offensive operations or defensive ops against any Pakistani interdiction, OCA or deep strike ops.
 
Most of these strategic systems are deployed at key sites and their targeting ranges barely touch the border. But, they are vulnerable to certain strategic weapons and the Russians have kept theirs behind layer AD as well.

The greater threat India has comes from MRSAM and potential LRSAM systems. Not what are generally systems with limited engagement capabilities when it comes to operations on the forward line of troops for any foreseeable Indian offensive operations or defensive ops against any Pakistani interdiction, OCA or deep strike ops.

With my limited knowledge I can assume.

S400 will not going to deployed at forward bases. It will be mostly used to protect the within indian sky for against any potential threats.

Swordfish Radar + PAD and AAD will be used to protect the major indian cities.

Military bases and borders, will mostly protected by Akash, spyder, barak 8 - LRSAM, QRSAM......

It will be kind of mix layer of protection.. S 400 will never be expose at borders so that it can be destroyed by rockets or drone..

For offensive, most probably india will be deployed swordfish radar since having 1500km tracking capability and it will cover almost entire Pakistan areas. Further, defense SAM systems will as layer of air protection..

May be I wrong but believe mostly S400 will not be exposed by india and will used for only defensive role.
 

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