Questionable BBS GDP Statistics

[UKBengali]

I would be surprised if the actual figure is less than 5.5-6% in a non-covid year when considering other economic indicators, improvement of infrastructure and growth of other developing countries with similar economic conditions. However, accuracy of GDP figures is absolutely vital as the inaccuracies keep building up and multiplying over the years.

8% growth without major natural resource production and despite major infrastructural bottlenecks and lack of industrial sophistication is unheard of. Had BBS not been playing foul, they would release all survey data without hesitation.

BD average growth last decade has been 7% and it started from a very low base in 2009 when AL came into power.
With what was happened in BD the GDP figures are credible.

The same level of growth this decade cannot happen without major export diversification though.

 

[Destranator]

This is Toyota car price, just converted into USD to see the comparison with BD. PS: Juta means Million

Fortuner for example is around 35.000 USD-49.500 USD

View attachment 702276

More list in here

Toyota Indonesia - Daftar Harga Mobil Toyota Terbaru | Oto

Lihat daftar harga mobil Toyota terbaru, promo April 2024, baca review redaksi, dealer. Dapatkan harga kredit Toyota terbaik hanya di oto.com

www.oto.com

But most Indonesia dont buy car in cash, but through credit.

This official dealer's website does not quote prices but typically a brand new fortuner costs well in excess of BDT 10 million.
This website quotes at BDT 13.7 million which is approx. USD 168k.

Price elasticity of demand makes a comparison of car sales growth between Indonesia and BD an invalid metric for comparing economic growth.

TOYOTA FORTUNER CAR Price in BD | বর্তমান মূল্য সহ বিস্তারিত

Explore TOYOTA FORTUNER CAR Price in Bangladesh, Including latest offer, full specifications, installment details, latest images and availability in Bangladesh.

www.autosbangla.com

BD average growth last decade has been 7% and it started from a very low base in 2009 when AL came into power.
With what was happened in BD the GDP figures are credible.

The same level of growth this decade cannot happen without major export diversification though.

Look, we can't simply call figures "credible" just because the economy is growing well as there are many credible experts raising alarms.

To be absolutely clear, I am not denying economic growth but questioning GDP calculations for every year since the beginning.

Even a 1% miscalculation In nominal GDP every year massively distorts indicators (GDP in PPP, GDP per capita, tax to GDP ratio, FDI as % of GDP, poverty rate, and many more) and inflates GDP data year on year.

What we need is a massive independent audit into and recalculation of economic data collection and calculation process of BBS by a reputed international audit agency (e.g.-E&Y, PwC, KPMG, etc..) and full autonomy of BBS.

 

[Indos]

This official dealer's website does not quote prices but typically a brand new fortuner costs well in excess of BDT 10 million.
This website quotes at BDT 13.7 million which is approx. USD 168k.

TOYOTA FORTUNER CAR Price in BD | বর্তমান মূল্য সহ বিস্তারিত

Explore TOYOTA FORTUNER CAR Price in Bangladesh, Including latest offer, full specifications, installment details, latest images and availability in Bangladesh.

www.autosbangla.com

LOL 168.000 USD for Toyota Fortuner is a robbery...............

 

[EasyNow]

This official dealer's website does not quote prices but typically a brand new fortuner costs well in excess of BDT 10 million.
This website quotes at BDT 13.7 million which is approx. USD 168k.

Price elasticity of demand makes a comparison of car sales growth between Indonesia and BD an invalid metric for comparing economic growth.

TOYOTA FORTUNER CAR Price in BD | বর্তমান মূল্য সহ বিস্তারিত

Explore TOYOTA FORTUNER CAR Price in Bangladesh, Including latest offer, full specifications, installment details, latest images and availability in Bangladesh.

www.autosbangla.com

Look, we can't simply call figures "credible" just because the economy is growing well as there are many credible experts raising alarms.

To be absolutely clear, I am not denying economic growth but questioning GDP calculations.

Even a 1% miscalculation In nominal GDP every year massively distorts indicators (GDP in PPP, GDP per capita, tax to GDP ratio, FDI as % of GDP, poverty rate, and many more) and inflates GDP data year on year.

Try to keep in mind, World Bank data is used all over the world by investors, lenders and the world Bank itself to make fiscal decisions regarding Bangladesh.

The World Bank would be a fool to blindly believe everything BBS says. I think by the laws of natural survival, data that is too misleading would damage Bangladesh - which is why BBS will never go too far with.

Of course BBS data is not infallible - but the same can be said for any country.
Some countries are more honest/accountable than others but investors make a calculated decision bearing all these things in mind - so be assured your concerns are all being accounted for.

 

[Destranator]

Try to keep in mind, World Bank data is used all over the world by investors, lenders and the world Bank itself to make fiscal decisions regarding Bangladesh.

The World Bank would be a fool to blindly believe everything BBS says. I think by the laws of natural survival, data that is too misleading would damage Bangladesh - which is why BBS will never go too far with.

Of course BBS data is not infallible - but the same can be said for any country.
Some countries are more honest/accountable than others but investors make a calculated decision bearing all these things in mind - so be assured your concerns are all being accounted for.

You are exactly right about the criticality of BBS data to WB. WB clearly does not blindly believe BBS data as they have been questioning it for decades now.

However, there is very little they can actually do about it as they do not have the resources or jurisdictions to conduct field surveys in order to re-calculate from scratch. All they do is come up with year on year forecasts for the next FY which gets swatted aside by BBS when they eventually "calculate" GDP for that FY.

Yes, there are other countries that too fudge data but this is not a valid excuse to let BBS off easy.
We cannot become a developed country with such broken institutions.

 

[EasyNow]

You are exactly right about the criticality of BBS data to WB. WB clearly does not blindly believe BBS data as they have been questioning it for decades now.

However, there is very little they can actually do about it as they do not have the resources or jurisdictions to conduct field surveys in order to re-calculate from scratch. All they do is come up with year on year forecasts for the next FY which gets swatted aside by BBS when they eventually "calculate" GDP for that FY.

Yes, there are other countries that too fudge data but this is not a valid excuse to let BBS off easy.
We cannot become a developed country with such broken institutions.

Bro the people who actually rely on these stats are using them happily. BBS is doing it's job of providing lenders, investors the data they need. Now what's the point of you and me speculating that the stats are wrong - if anyone can prove it let them do so. That is how data has always been

 

[Destranator]

Bro the people who actually rely on these stats are using them happily. BBS is doing it's job of providing lenders, investors the data they need. Now what's the point of you and me speculating that the stats are wrong - if anyone can prove it let them do so. That is how data has always been

As I have detailed in earlier posts, unreliable GDP data is messing with many critical economic indicators and therefore all sectors dependent on those indicators are being put at risk. No one is accepting BBS data "happily" as otherwise questions would not be raised by qualified experts.

We need to change this mindset and culture of "oh, this has always been like this" if we want to become a country to reckon with. Bangladesh can never attain top credit ratings, for example, with a broken stats department.

 

[fallstuff]

Do you want proves? The way Hasina govt is forcing us to drink WASA muddy water, the way it forces us to use Dingi Boats during waterlogging, the way Hawkers sitting on the footpaths, the way Lungiwala, Sabjiwala, Falwala, Murgiwala and Kaprawala dsisturb the passerby walking the footpaths are all proves of the very low level development of the country.

BBS people have to falsify data in order to keep their jobs. BBS is not a BAL-appointed organ, it belongs to GoB, and this BBS has been compiling false data since its inception.

Watch the streets of Dhaka and other towns and cities, what is the main mode of transportation? It is the 200 year old Rickshaw culture. What other proofs do you want except that some stupid here claims BD people drink 300 Taka a cup of Tea.

Do you guys want people to believe in BBS nuisance? Go out of your hi fi apartment some times and enjoy the beauty of Dhaka living standard. Tell me about one eatery, not Hotel Radisson or any 5-star hotel, with toilet facilities in Dhaka, and then talk. It means that even a correct sewerage disposal system is not in place.

Yet, guys like you brag about the falsified BBS GDP data to tell the world that BD has already become another Sweden!! Nonsense!! Has BD become another Switzerland or Monaco of the east without even a functional drainage, sewerage or safe drinking water system?

It is a new definition of development which is accepted and appreciated only by some of the ignorant BD people.

There is no need to blow a gasket over an internet forum conversation !
If Edward Snowden claimed all that he did without evidence he would not have been taken seriously. Therefore , some form of hard evidence is needed.

Sewer lines are functioning in some form else there will be crap all over the city !
The water lines need to be upgraded as they have not been since the days the lines were installed.

 

[EasyNow]

As I have detailed in earlier posts, unreliable GDP data is messing with many critical economic indicators and therefore all sectors dependent on those indicators are being put at risk. No one is accepting BBS data "happily" as otherwise questions would not be raised by qualified experts.

We need to change this mindset and culture of "oh, this has always been like this" if we want to become a country to reckon with. Bangladesh can never attain top credit ratings, for example, with a broken stats department.

I don't mean "always been like this" about Bangladesh, I mean data has always been open to inspection but one has to show proof to criticize.

In the main article, Riti says they were asked to work to a pre arranged figure - but she never did this. How can she then say others are doing it but she didn't? It's biased speculation.

Similarly Zahid Hussain says 'how does..expand so fast' again speculation. If it didn't expand he needs to prove it - isn't that fair?

With the number of haters inside and outside BD, if these people had any evidence do you think they would be quiet?

 

[Destranator]

I don't mean "always been like this" about Bangladesh, I mean data has always been open to inspection but one has to show proof to criticize.

In the main article, Riti says they were asked to work to a pre arranged figure - but she never did this. How can she then say others are doing it but she didn't? It's biased speculation.

Similarly Zahid Hussain says 'how does..expand so fast' again speculation. If it didn't expand he needs to prove it - isn't that fair?

With the number of haters inside and outside BD, if these people had any evidence do you think they would be quiet?

Riti said she has seen calculations being done backwards from the beginning of her career. No reason for her to expose herself like this if she does not see valid grounds.

Zahid is a qualified economist questioning how industrial sector grew so fast statistically without matching ground reality. He is not a moron who would say such a thing if he did not notice a discrepancy.

Likes of Mirza Azizul Islam, Salwhuddin Ahmed etc.. also have nothing to gain from questioning stats.

With so many parties raising concerns, I am of the position that intervention to investigate reform, upgrade and give autonomy to BBS be done immediately while you are more keen on wasting more time and let the data become corrupt and unreliable until some Wikileaks style drama ensues where exact work outs of dodgy calculations are published to the media.

Let us just agree to disagree there.

 

[fallstuff]

Riti said she has seen calculations being done backwards from the beginning of her career. No reason for her to expose herself like this if she does not see valid grounds.

Zahid is a qualified economist questioning how industrial sector grew so fast statistically without matching ground reality. He is not a moron who would say such a thing if he did not notice a discrepancy.

Likes of Mirza Azizul Islam, Salwhuddin Ahmed etc.. also have nothing to gain from questioning stats.

With so many parties raising concerns, I am of the position that intervention to investigate reform, upgrade and give autonomy to BBS be done immediately while you are more keen on wasting more time and let the data become corrupt and unreliable until some Wikileaks style drama ensues where exact work outs of dodgy calculations are published to the media.

Let us just agree to disagree there.

I thought I knew people after knowing these folks for decades, then one day I am like how could these folks do such things ! I saw people do unconscionable things for money and fame.
All in one life time !

 

[Black_cats]

GDP is measured based on compound rate (GDP growth + inflation). So let's say for 8% GDP growth and 5% inflation GDP growth will be 13%. If 1% real GDP growth is fake it will create 1/13 * 100% = 7.69% difference only on per capita GDP. So let's say we have a 200 USD per capita GDP increase in a year, removing 1% it will give 184.62 USD increase in per capita GDP instead which is not a big difference. Even if we remove 5-7 times or let's say 10 times of it for the last 10 years we are still having a 1900 USD per capita GDP instead of 2070 USD. This does not change the reality with the neighbors much.

I hope the discussion ends here.

 

[Destranator]

Someone does not even know what Gross Domestic Product is and what data feeds into it.
Desperate to shut out discussions here as it puts his millions of pointless threads opened solely for bragging about GDP to question.

 

[Black_cats]

This is hilarious who even can not differentiate compound gdp growth rate with how gdp is calculated and try to create a false impression 1% per capita gdp growth faking will put Bangladesh behind other neighbors and it should stop making any further projection without knowing even basic calculations.

The whole thread is just based on speculation without pointing any concrete evidence as some members even asked in this thread where data is faked. Even minor change of real gdp growth during calculation has a minor effect on total per capita gdp.

@WebMaster cam you please merge the thread with the following thread as it has nothing new to discuss or contain any concrete information that provide proof otherwise.

Same thing has been discussed in so many other threads created by @idune where one is below:

GDP Growth has now become a political number: the CPD

GDP Growth has now become a political number: the CPD Aug 16, 2020 The Center for Policy Dialogue (CPD), a private research institute, thinks that the growth of gross domestic product (GDP) has now become a political 'sensitive' number to show the success of the government. Demanding the...

defence.pk

Plus creating a random thread with own interpretation and thread title is also against the forum rule.

So please also remove the thread from sticky section as well.

Thanks

 

[Destranator]

"Just add inflation and you have GDP".