Pakistan projected to be among largest economies in the world by 2075: Goldman Sachs

[Horse_Rider]

Unfortunately, I am not so enthusiastic about improvement of relationship, trades or otherwise, between us. At least not till some sort of agreement is reached/signed for the 75 year old dispute and both stop their respective covert divisionary tactics. And also Indian govt. will certainly keep a radioactive distance from CPEC, which will otherwise give some sort of legitimacy AJK and GB, which they, the present vociferously and the other govts in the past silently, claims as part of India.


This, I wholeheartedly agree. But, I don't see any quickfix between the trios, who are entangled in a web of border dispute so complex that I cannot foresee any plausible solution. So in the meanwhile China will keep growing fast, followed by, slowly but surely, India and BD. For Pakistan to jump in the bandwagon, hopefully after next election, some political stability comes and the Military power is cut back to actual required size. With too many power centres at the moment, it is truely unachievable at the moment, IMHO.

Indian government isn't looking out in the future in terms of India's economic growth. India's IT market will take a big hit in the next few years from all around post the 6G rollout. That's a significant source of revenue for India. In fact this tech boom helped create today's India by hard work that started back in 1995's. There is an expectation of a very significant recession that's already starting and will last for a while, welcoming the globe to the "Gig Economy" that's a work in progress for a few years now.

So how do you create 6-7% growth YOY? Well, one way is to find non-IT consumers to sell Indian products and services to. How do you find that? You connect with China, Pakistan and through them connect with Afghanistan and then use CPEC to expand your economic reach to Central Russians Estates and the EU. If you don't do it, the Chinese will take the pizza and the plate with them.

For any of the above to work, relations have to be improved. How do you do that? Easy fix, all 3 sit down and freeze the issue on today's lines (like India did to Jammu). There is no other way, period. I think India has smart business savvy people that when the time comes can force the government to shake hands (like they did a while ago with Modi when he visited Lahore for example).

Lastly, you are under estimating Pakistan. Take a look at us, our economy was in shambles recently, we've been sanctioned multiple times to have basic upgrades to our fighter jets, we were told "we'd break up into pieces", today we still exist, we manufacture advance weapons, export jets (ToT but that's fine, it's ours), we have the 3rd largest work force who is young (over 50% of Pakistanis are between 15-30 years, etc, etc) and created one of the largest free lancer force in the world. It's only a matter of 5 stable years and the graph would move 45 degrees!

 

[SoulSpokesman]

I am a bit surprised and intrigued that my bros from across the Wagah border are so dismissive of the fact that Pakistan will become merely an upper middle income country (by today's standards) a couple of generations down the line. They miss the fact that even with the same set of Faujis, feudals and clerics in place, Pakistan was all set to become the first Asian Tiger (although the term was not invented then) in the mid 1960s before Bhutto and the 1965 war put paid to all of that.

Regards

@VCheng @epebble @Rusty2 @RiazHaq

 

[VCheng]

I am a bit surprised and intrigued that my bros from across the Wagah border are so dismissive of the fact that Pakistan will become merely an upper middle income country (by today's standards) a couple of generations down the line. They miss the fact that even with the same set of Faujis, feudals and clerics in place, Pakistan was all set to become the first Asian Tiger (although the term was not invented then) in the mid 1960s before Bhutto and the 1965 war put paid to all of that.

Regards

@VCheng @epebble @Rusty2 @RiazHaq

Why be surprised? There are two Pakistans: The Pakistan of the Haves is doing very well. The Pakistan of the Have Nots is not. As long as that remains true, it does matter which category Pakistan is classified by outside observers.

 

[Rusty2]

I am a bit surprised and intrigued that my bros from across the Wagah border are so dismissive of the fact that Pakistan will become merely an upper middle income country (by today's standards) a couple of generations down the line. They miss the fact that even with the same set of Faujis, feudals and clerics in place, Pakistan was all set to become the first Asian Tiger (although the term was not invented then) in the mid 1960s before Bhutto and the 1965 war put paid to all of that.

Regards

@VCheng @epebble @Rusty2 @RiazHaq

Pakistan's problems are many but the four I listed are the ultimate reason for our condition.
If you look at any country that went from developing, to developed they took control of their army, landlords, politicians and clerics. These four classes need to be reined in for the masses to enjoy any sort of development.
In Pakistan, these four classes have held hands to control the masses.

 

[GWXP]

"Developing countries have the potential to grow at a faster rate than developed countries because diminishing returns (in particular, to capital) are not as strong as in capital-rich countries. Furthermore, poorer countries can replicate the production methods, technologies, and institutions of developed countries."

It seems like the world will be moving toward economic convergence between the third world and the first world by 2100

From Goldman Sachs Paper: GDP nominal

 

[imadul]

One does not have to be Goldman Sachs to predict that.
My prediction Pakistan will be worlds 3rd largest economy in 150 years and i dont even have a CFA certification.
But criminal military Inc shall be world's largest real-estate broker by 2028.

 

[Horse_Rider]

One does not have to be Goldman Sachs to predict that.
My prediction Pakistan will be worlds 3rd largest economy in 150 years and i dont even have a CFA certification.
But criminal military Inc shall be world's largest real-estate broker by 2028.

This was a thread on economy, not a crazy IK fanboy political crap. Please take your political drama elsewhere. Your response on the economy is also useless. You have NO idea on why Pakistan can be a bigger economy as you just wanted to troll. Stop insulting the institutions and have some respect for your country. With people like you, we don't need India as an enemy, you people are enough.

"Developing countries have the potential to grow at a faster rate than developed countries because diminishing returns (in particular, to capital) are not as strong as in capital-rich countries. Furthermore, poorer countries can replicate the production methods, technologies, and institutions of developed countries."

It seems like the world will be moving toward economic convergence between the third world and the first world by 2100

From Goldman Sachs Paper: GDP nominal
View attachment 906503View attachment 906504View attachment 906505

You'll start to see this from 2030 onwards. Unless the wealth is distributed somewhat to the poor, the richer consumer has peaked. The US, won't grow as much anymore due to such factors of saturation. So the wealth must get redistributed to poor countries so the richer one's business can target more consumers to sell their products. And that creates jobs and opportunity in these poor countries resulting in growth. The economic future belongs to Asia and Africa as there is close to half the world's population there, who could grow a lot overtime.

Just between India-China-Pakistan, that's about 3 billion people alone. Similarly, number 1,2 and 5 most populated countries. Imagine when masses in these countries grow towards middle to upper middle class, making their economies jump as well. I think in many years to come, US, China, India, EU and then Japan, UK, KSA, Korean, Brazil and then Pakistan, will make up the top economies, this is inline with many economic powerhouses including Goldman's.

 

[retaxis]

yer we will all be dead by then. well i will be most likely maybe some of u will be in nursing homes zoned out on cancer meds

 

[SIPRA]

yer we will all be dead by then. well i will be most likely maybe some of u will be in nursing homes zoned out on cancer meds

That is why, precisely, such feel-good predictions are made; because they are neither refutable, nor verifiable.

 

[epebble]

This Doctor uses a time machine and does a back to the future analysis with sobering results. Futurology is a humbling business.

What Would Goldman Sachs Have Projected For The Future Of Pakistan’s Economy Back In 1960?​

What Would Goldman Sachs Have Projected For The Future Of Pakistan’s Economy Back In 1960?

The Goldman Sachs projection is largely based on two assumptions: the rate of population growth and the rate of productivity growth.

www.thefridaytimes.com

 

[ghazi52]

I didn't know that the current economic crisis and worst governance is only because of Imran's watch scandal.
Imran Khan. If you had not done this, Pakistan would have crossed all the milestones of development. Dollar would be rubbing his heels.
Bilawal should not have made so many international trips.