North Korea US Tension - News & Discussion

[gambit]

North korea is now very much a nuclear state.

Any country can become a nuclear state, assuming agreement and compliance to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, even only at the laboratory level. But compliance would mean no ascension to nuclear weapons state status.

 

[jhungary]

Yes. But the real question here is if NK can reach US with their nukes then are you alright with a US NK war? NK is a nuclear power. They don't need China to protect themselves anymore.

The problem is not whether or not NK can reach US, but rather what kind of Response the US would and how they will impact the Chinese

First of all, NK cannot reach all of the CONUS, only western part, and with limited ICMB technology, there are not really much damage can NK do, yes, there are a few city in the US may cease to exist, or the majority of the missile would be intercepted by THAAD in South Korea, that is unknown, but once the NK determined to launch Nuke on US, then this is for certain, US will launch retaliation Nuclear Strike on North Korea.

Problem now is, even if the nuke US launch all hit North Korea, fall out will most likely radiated to China and seeing Several big Chinese City is just 150 - 200 mile Away from North Korea (Dalin is only 170 mile away) and capital city is all about 400-500 mile away (Tianjin is about 400 mile away, Beijing is about 550 mile away) radiative fall out will kills millions of people in China. That would mean there are 2 things Chinese Can do.

Do not attack the US and have the whole North East region (the most developed one) turn into no-man zone, the Chinese will lose majority of their industrial hub (most of them are in North East) and restart for something the Chinese did not do, or

Attack the American. And both US and China will cease to exist, and possibly the world) for something China did not do or wanted to happen.

The problem is, either way, it does not look good on China, and it was out of Chinese Control, would the Chinese government want to digest either one of the above scenario because of North Korea is a big question itself, in fact, Chinese is more frightened by the nuclear weapon in North Korea than the US, because it will basically be the ultimate blackmail by Kim to the Chinese, and giving a choice for Kim to lead Chinese government around to do something they do not want nor particularly fond to do, or they nuke US, and US nuke NK and fail out spill over to China, and either it end the buck there, or the world ceased to exist, all of which is out of Chinese Control, and Chinese government do not want that.

Another prospect is that nuclearized NK would draw fear to surrounding country, which basically pull them closer to the US, we have already seen how NK nuclear weapon testing turn President Moon of SK around from opposing THAAD deployment to requesting more THAAD deployment, what might happen is the latest NK nuclear threat would have a negative result to power distribution in the region, because you cannot expect other country to sit around and do nothing, Japan may go nuclear, South Korea may go nuclear, smaller countries (Vietnam, Laos, Philippine) may also either go nuclear or have BMD from the US to counter this thread, would China want to live with that much nuclear power neighbours? I mean I don't think Chinese would be pleased to see Japan and South Korea goes nuclear. But if NK regime keep pushing, I can actually see this happens.

 

[EndangeredSpecies]

The problem is not whether or not NK can reach US, but rather what kind of Response the US would and how they will impact the Chinese

First of all, NK cannot reach all of the CONUS, only western part, and with limited ICMB technology, there are not really much damage can NK do, yes, there are a few city in the US may cease to exist, or the majority of the missile would be intercepted by THAAD in South Korea, that is unknown, but once the NK determined to launch Nuke on US, then this is for certain, US will launch retaliation Nuclear Strike on North Korea.

Problem now is, even if the nuke US launch all hit North Korea, fall out will most likely radiated to China and seeing Several big Chinese City is just 150 - 200 mile Away from North Korea (Dalin is only 170 mile away) and capital city is all about 400-500 mile away (Tianjin is about 400 mile away, Beijing is about 550 mile away) radiative fall out will kills millions of people in China. That would mean there are 2 things Chinese Can do.

Do not attack the US and have the whole North East region (the most developed one) turn into no-man zone, the Chinese will lose majority of their industrial hub (most of them are in North East) and restart for something the Chinese did not do, or

Attack the American. And both US and China will cease to exist, and possibly the world) for something China did not do or wanted to happen.

The problem is, either way, it does not look good on China, and it was out of Chinese Control, would the Chinese government want to digest either one of the above scenario because of North Korea is a big question itself, in fact, Chinese is more frightened by the nuclear weapon in North Korea than the US, because it will basically be the ultimate blackmail by Kim to the Chinese, and giving a choice for Kim to lead Chinese government around to do something they do not want nor particularly fond to do, or they nuke US, and US nuke NK and fail out spill over to China, and either it end the buck there, or the world ceased to exist, all of which is out of Chinese Control, and Chinese government do not want that.

Another prospect is that nuclearized NK would draw fear to surrounding country, which basically pull them closer to the US, we have already seen how NK nuclear weapon testing turn President Moon of SK around from opposing THAAD deployment to requesting more THAAD deployment, what might happen is the latest NK nuclear threat would have a negative result to power distribution in the region, because you cannot expect other country to sit around and do nothing, Japan may go nuclear, South Korea may go nuclear, smaller countries (Vietnam, Laos, Philippine) may also either go nuclear or have BMD from the US to counter this thread, would China want to live with that much nuclear power neighbours? I mean I don't think Chinese would be pleased to see Japan and South Korea goes nuclear. But if NK regime keep pushing, I can actually see this happens.

Actually looking at the things as they are, best option for China is to use her deep assets in North Korea and take Kim-Jong-Fat out and install a controllable puppet. You know, a fat diabetic is prone to sudden death syndrome.

 

[Mage]

First of all, NK cannot reach all of the CONUS

They will eventually.

there are a few city in the US may cease to exist, or the majority of the missile would be intercepted by THAAD in South Korea, that is unknown,

Worth the risk?

US will launch retaliation Nuclear Strike on North Korea.

I was rather pointing that US can't go for a first strike because of the potential damage it can cause. If NK is the first aggressor(they aren't that stupid) then I'm sure they will be obliterated but they would cause as much destruction possible to it's enemies before going down.

Do not attack the US and have the whole North East region (the most developed one) turn into no-man zone, the Chinese will lose majority of their industrial hub (most of them are in North East) and restart for something the Chinese did not do, or

Attack the American. And both US and China will cease to exist, and possibly the world) for something China did not do or wanted to happen.

Unless little Kimmy loses his mind there is little chance of any attack on US from NK. He has made sure that any attack in NK by any party will be too costly to conduct.

Japan may go nuclear, South Korea may go nuclear, smaller countries (Vietnam, Laos, Philippine) may also either go nuclear or have BMD from the US to counter this thread, would China want to live with that much nuclear power neighbours? I mean I don't think Chinese would be pleased to see Japan and South Korea goes nuclear. But if NK regime keep pushing, I can actually see this happens.

I believe every country in the world has the right to develop nukes. It's unfair that some can have it while some can't.

 

[jhungary]

They will eventually.

eventually does not really matter, because I can also argue that eventually US can will develop a 100% hard kill vehicle and render ICBM worthless. They are getting close at this moment.

Worth the risk?

To the American or to the North Korean?

Because to the American, it is not something that risk is the concern, you nuke me, I nuke you, that is the purpose of MAD. To the North Korean, if they have to nuke the US, they would have no other choice because that would mean that's the end of them (or possibly the world) and if they are going to die anyway, what's the risk?

I was rather pointing that US can't go for a first strike because of the potential damage it can cause. If NK is the first aggressor(they aren't that stupid) then I'm sure they will be obliterated but they would cause as much destruction possible to it's enemies before going down.

It doesn't matter, US First strike policy existed not because of North Korea, it was because of the guy who have 3000 ICBM (That's Russia, in case you still don't know), as I said, if Nuke are to be used, that mean it would be THAT DIRED. And it does not matter who US is nuking, Russia, China or North Korea, that does not mean anything because at that point if Nuke is at the table for the US, the situation would mean it worth US mainland getting nuked in return.

The US would still try to minimize the damage by conducting a full count (which is a prompted strike on known Nuclear Facilities), the bigger the nuke (with longer range) the harder to move, which mean most of these ICBM the North Korea process will be killed in 0 minutes, and the smaller and less yield Nuclear Weapon would be the one that most likely being released, killing these may be harder, but not undoable.

The situation does not change whether or not US is first to nuke North Korea or NK is the first to nuke US.

And in case of Nuking US, it does not matter who does it, it will automatically mean the end of the world, the USAF have a standing protocol to retaliate with thermonuclear response in kind. Which mean nuking US would mean the end of the world, by then there will be no friends nor enemy, because we would all be dead.

Unless little Kimmy loses his mind there is little chance of any attack on US from NK. He has made sure that any attack in NK by any party will be too costly to conduct.

It still doesn't matter, what the US scared is not NK nuke (or the one they said they have) but rather if they can enrich Plutonium, they can make dirty nuke or dirty bomb, and which can be used unrestrictedly in the world, NK have nuke which mean everyone can have nuke, because there are not even a single doubt NK will sell the secret in black market. Which mean any (not just to the US) enemy of the state can get one. Think about it, what if Chechen separatist got nuke and nuke Russia? Or Xinjing Separatist brought black market NK nuke? What will China think about it?

You cannot just think NK will use Nuke officially, they will be selling it on the black market, either technology, material or both, and then it would become a free for all. Think about how this impact the world.

In term of Official position, NK Nuke does not create a clear and present danger to the US, If the US still in a business to challenge Russia (They bomb the Russian Airfield in Syria just the beginning of the year) and Russia have 3000 thermonuclear weapon, what kind of threat does NK post with a few ICBM to alter the US foreign Policy ?

I believe every country in the world has the right to develop nukes. It's unfair that some can have it while some can't.

Well, It's not that clear cut, in a way, Nuke lose its appeal as a weapon of mass destruction, because now we can target more people with Bio-Chemical Weapon which is a lot more easier to make, but maybe at the same level of destruction power than nuclear weapon.

Everyone can have nuke, of course, but when that day come, the term nuclear weapon would be a moot point, because of the MAD, you have to mad enough to use Nuke and once you use it, you will have to endure the consequence (which is the end of the world), this is not about fair or unfair, this is because there are country or organisation that have little regard than others, what if TTP have nuke? Would you be scare in Pakistan or Afghanistan? The question is, I want a world without nuke, if not, I want weapon that can neutralise nuke to be develop as quickly as possible.

Actually looking at the things as they are, best option for China is to use her deep assets in North Korea and take Kim-Jong-Fat out and install a controllable puppet. You know, a fat diabetic is prone to sudden death syndrome.

Hard to pull this out, China is not really on top of the espionage game, it will take immense resource for China to pull this out, especially now when NK does not see China as a master/slave relationship, and graduate move away from China. And Kim have killed almost all potential leader that are close to China.

The only way for China to remove Kim is by force, but I doubt that we can see that anytime soon.

 

[mike2000 is back]

Actually looking at the things as they are, best option for China is to use her deep assets in North Korea and take Kim-Jong-Fat out and install a controllable puppet. You know, a fat diabetic is prone to sudden death syndrome.

Ahahahahah...... You crack me up.

you cannot expect other country to sit around and do nothing, Japan may go nuclear, South Korea may go nuclear, smaller countries (Vietnam, Laos, Philippine) may also either go nuclear or have BMD from the US to counter this thread

True, that's another Interesting point many people forget. The funny thing is that the U.S is actually the one preventing these two big developed Asian countries from contemplating nuclear weapons . If not Japan (and even South Korea to a lesser extent) has the capabilities to develop nuclear weapons. In fact, Japan has had this capability for decades now. They don't do it for obvious reasons.

However I believe if things change drastically and the U.S pulls out of the region they can do it at a very short notice. So to some extent U.S presence helps keep the region less chaotic and more stable than many people actually believe. That's the irony.

Another prospect is that nuclearized NK would draw fear to surrounding country, which basically pull them closer to the US, we have already seen how NK nuclear weapon testing turn President Moon of SK around from opposing THAAD deployment to requesting more THAAD deployment, what might happen is the latest NK nuclear threat would have a negative result to power distribution in the region,

That's what I have been saying for a while now. An aggressive and unpredictable nuclear north Korea is actually a good thing for the U.S , since it serves U.S military interests and justifies it's massive Military presence/dominance in Asia ,thereby pulling S.Korea and Japan even closer to the U.S than they would have wanted otherwise(especially for South Korea who is forced to seek a closer ties with U S thanks to Fat Kim). This is not benefiting to China as well. So I believe out of all the players involved (i.e U.S,Japan, China and S.Korea ) the U.S is actually the one that stands to gain the most from a crazy Kim regime lol
So ironically, Kim actually serves U S interests to some extent.

 

[jhungary]

Ahahahahah...... You crack me up.


True, that's another Interesting point many people forget. The funny thing is that the U.S is actually the one preventing these two big developed Asian countries from contemplating nuclear weapons . If not Japan (and even South Korea to a lesser extent) has the capabilities to develop nuclear weapons. In fact, Japan has had this capability for decades now. They don't do it for obvious reasons.

However I believe if things change drastically and the U.S pulls out of the region they can do it at a very short notice. So to some extent U.S presence helps keep the region less chaotic and more stable than many people actually believe. That's the irony.

What if Taiwan have nuke too? That won't go pretty well toward the Chinese.

Problem is, US is actually quite against nuclear proliferation from the beginning, the only country the US help getting nuke is basically Israel, and to some degree, Pakistan. The UK and France have their own nuclear program and equally benefitted by Manhattan project jointly during WW2. In fact, it was British who help American to develop the first ever Atomic Bomb...

Anyway, if US want to see a chaotic Asia, they would have let go of nuclear non-proliferation policy and have the whole Asia nuke up, that would probably would have raise a few eyebrows on China and Russia. But well......I guess if NK keep pushing, I can actually see this eventually happening.

 

[mike2000 is back]

Actually looking at the things as they are, best option for China is to use her deep assets in North Korea and take Kim-Jong-Fat out and install a controllable puppet

That is just an imaginary dream idea. Not a realistic one.
Unlike what some people think, China itself has long moved away from N.Korea (and vice versa). Kim doesn't trust China AT ALL, they both mistrust and even dislike each other. Kim doesn't listen to anyone and does what he wants. He has already killed/executed almost every major figure in the N.Korean government that was abit sympathetic to China. China has little to no control over N Korea. The best the Chinese can do is try to avoid any stupid move from Kim from affecting their country (like a massive refugee flow, nuclear fallout, instability in the region that will affect the Chinese economy etc). So I don't see what people want China to do to be honest. China from what I can see has already tried everything they could to bring N Korea out of the cold and make them see reason but that has all failed miserably. In this case there is little to nothing they can do against Kim without affecting China itself.

 

[EndangeredSpecies]

That is just an imaginary dream idea. Not a realistic one.
Unlike what some people think, China itself has long moved away from N.Korea (and vice versa). Kim doesn't trust China AT ALL, they both mistrust and even dislike each other. Kim doesn't listen to anyone and does what he wants. He has already killed/executed almost every major figure in the N.Korean government that was abit sympathetic to China. China has little to no control over N Korea. The best the Chinese can do is try to avoid any stupid move from Kim from affecting their country (like a massive refugee flow, nuclear fallout, instability in the region that will affect the Chinese economy etc). So I don't see what people want China to do to be honest. China from what I can see has already tried everything they could to bring N Korea out of the cold and make them see reason but it that has all failed. In this case there is little to nothing they can do against Kim without affecting China itself.

You see, a rouge north korea is an a blade sitting next to China's juglar vein. And a NK leader with a personality to 'demonstrate power' is that knife in the hand of a nervous psychopath.

Anything nuclear happening in North Korea will spill over INTO Chinese hub of economic development sitting less than 1000 KM from NK. Heck Beijing is just 850 KM or so from Pyongyang. And it is not just the actual nuclear calamity in Pyongyang which is an issue. An imminent threat of nuclear calamity may send real estate and related market around that region into a tailspin.

Find a way to eliminate the troublesome first family of North Korea is a desparate but not unthinkable measure for China, especially if Kim-Jong-Fat get erectile dysfunction and tries to buy a Hummer .

It still doesn't matter, what the US scared is not NK nuke (or the one they said they have) but rather if they can enrich Plutonium, they can make dirty nuke or dirty bomb, and which can be used unrestrictedly in the world, NK have nuke which mean everyone can have nuke, because there are not even a single doubt NK will sell the secret in black market. Which mean any (not just to the US) enemy of the state can get one. Think about it, what if Chechen separatist got nuke and nuke Russia? Or Xinjing Separatist brought black market NK nuke? What will China think about it?

I find it rather odd actually, the US policy of pushing NK to the limit in terms of money. US is now almost asking NK to open a nuclear wal-mart. If you block their fish, they have nothing else to sell! . NK have an experince for this. I read about few real estate development companies which used to act as a front for selling NK missile technology to whom so ever is willing to pay.

 

[gambit]

China has little to no control over N Korea.

That is not what the world believe. And we are correct.

As long as there is one atomic weight's worth that China NEED North Korea as a geopolitical buffer, that is enough to make NKR the millstone around China's neck. And China's leadership knows it. I would dare to guess that China made a tactical mistake in believing that NKR would act in ways that would be a thorn in the side of the US-SKR alliance, but not to the extent to in China's. But now China is paying the price, at home and abroad, in not keeping periodic checks on NKR.

 

[bsruzm]

And both US and China will cease to exist,

Fingers crossed then but what sounds even better is an American civil war completely out of control followed by a devastating conflict between N.Korea and US.

and possibly the world

Not sure about it.

 

[jhungary]

Fingers crossed then but what sounds even better is an American civil war completely out of control followed by a devastating conflict between N.Korea and US.

You do know if a Nuclear War broke out between ANYONE and the United States, you and I will ceased to exist, because US have treaty bound country that will launch their nuclear arsenal toward China and/or Russia or both in case of a nuclear attack, that is not a probability, that is a certainty

And Turkey will be nuked by China or Russia or both as part of NATO. That is why up until now, nuclear weapon has not been used since the inception in 1945.

And even if somehow US does survive a nuclear Armageddon that wipe out the world, the US would not descent into Anarchy as there are plan for continuity in place.

Not sure about it.

I can tell you this, if someone nuke the US, I would probably prefer to be dead than somehow live in a post-apocalyptic world. Life will not be worth living in a nuclear holocaust, I have had a taste when I was living thru a war, I don't want to live that life for a living. And I am pretty sure so are you. So, wishing anyone to have a nuclear war with the US is actually quite stupid to begin with.

 

[bsruzm]

You do know if a Nuclear War broke out between ANYONE and the United States, you and I will ceased to exist, because US have treaty bound country that will launch their nuclear arsenal toward China and/or Russia or both in case of a nuclear attack, that is not a probability, that is a certainty

And Turkey will be nuked by China or Russia or both as part of NATO. That is why up until now, nuclear weapon has not been used since the inception in 1945.

And even if somehow US does survive a nuclear Armageddon that wipe out the world, the US would not descent into Anarchy as there are plan for continuity in place.



I can tell you this, if someone nuke the US, I would probably prefer to be dead than somehow live in a post-apocalyptic world. Life will not be worth living in a nuclear holocaust, I have had a taste when I was living thru a war, I don't want to live that life for a living. And I am pretty sure so are you. So, wishing anyone to have a nuclear war with the US is actually quite stupid to begin with.

Don't waste your time with all these scenarios, I take nothing seriously about North Korea and US already

Still, I am (personally) not buying these 'Turkey would be hit, too' stories.

 

[jhungary]

Don't waste your time with all these scenarios, I take nothing seriously about North Korea and US already

Still, I am (personally) not buying these 'Turkey would be hit, too' stories.

Turkey which is a part of NATO, will be require to response to an attack to a Fellow NATO country, meaning, Turkey will attack North Korea and/or China + Russia when China and Russia enter war on North Korea side (Because Nuclear Fallout from US ICBM will blow to and kills millions of Chinese and Russian as both were bordering North Korea) Unless you are telling me China and Russia will not do anything when US nuke North Korea and kill many of its citizens, the next step for them will be attack US and its Allies, and Turkey, is an US Allies.

If Turkey do not complies with NATO alliance, US will nuke Turkey to prevent it flip to the other side (Much like what Ottoman did in WW1) which mean Turkey will be hit either by China, North Korea, Russia or the US and its Allies.

Again, its naïve and stupid to believe a Nuclear War with US will not turn into a global Armageddon

 

[bsruzm]

Turkey which is a part of NATO, will be require to response to an attack to a Fellow NATO country, meaning, Turkey will attack North Korea and/or China + Russia when China and Russia enter war on North Korea side (Because Nuclear Fallout from US ICBM will blow to and kills millions of Chinese and Russian as both were bordering North Korea) Unless you are telling me China and Russia will not do anything when US nuke North Korea and kill many of its citizens, the next step for them will be attack US and its Allies, and Turkey, is an US Allies.

If Turkey do not complies with NATO alliance, US will nuke Turkey to prevent it flip to the other side (Much like what Ottoman did in WW1) which mean Turkey will be hit either by China, North Korea, Russia or the US and its Allies.

Again, its naïve and stupid to believe a Nuclear War with US will not turn into a global Armageddon

Whatever you call it, not buying any still.