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LAHORE: The Economic Survey 2010-11 reveals that increase in poverty is directly related to the level of food inflation and factoring food inflation of last five years in accordance with given formula reveals that 41.2 percent or 74.16 million Pakistanis are living below poverty line.
The economic survey refers to a study by Asian Development Bank that estimates the impact of food inflation on populations in different countries. For Pakistan, ADB calculated that in case of 10 percent food inflation, 2.2 percent of the population enters poverty. In case of 20 percent food inflation, the number of people falling in poverty track is 4.5 percent. At 30 percent food inflation, an estimated 6.7 percent population enters poverty trap.
According to official statistics of the government, food inflation in 2008-09 was 26.6 percent. According the estimates of ADB quoted in the Economic Survey 2010-11, poverty should have increased by around 6 percent in 2008-09 (5.985 percent to be exact). The food inflation in 2009-10 was 12 percent as stated in latest economic survey. Accordingly additional 2.64 percent of the population entered poverty circle that year.
This year food inflation officially has been 18.4 percent which means another addition of 4.14 percent population that lives below poverty line. This means that 12.75 percent of the population of Pakistan has entered poverty circle in three years rule of this government.
One fact worth noting is that the last national poverty figure of 22.3 percent was declared in economic survey of 2005-06. No poverty figures were released in 2006-07 and 2007-08 but food inflation during these two years was 10.28 percent and 17.65 percent respectively. Applying ADB formula of increase in poverty, it increased by 2.26 percent in 2006-07 and 3.88 percent in 2007-08. Thus poverty increased by 18.90 percent during 2006-2011 periods.
If we add 18.90 percent increase in poverty to the documented the 2006-07 poverty figures of 22.3, total poverty in the country should be 41.2 percent which means that 74.16 million people in Pakistan live below poverty line.
The high impact of food inflation in Pakistan is also supported by the price trend of essential food commodities between January 08 (just prior to general election) and May 19, 2011. Wheat flour rates increased during this period by 46 percent from Rs19.41 to Rs28.31 per kg. Beef rates jumped by 85 percent from Rs122.33 to Rs226.22 per kg. Prices of mutton registered a rise of 88 percent from Rs233.79 to Rs440.06.
The rates of chicken meat increased from Rs74.74 to Rs12512 per kg depicting an increase of 67 percent. Fresh milk was available at Rs29.63 in January 08 but its price increased by 86.5 percent to Rs55.27 by May 19, 2011. According to the latest economic survey, rates of cooking oil increase during this period by 64.5 percent, rice by 57 percent, sugar by 152 percent and Mash pulse by 122 percent. The Survey in its chapter on poverty though conceded that the social and economic exclusion has resulted in multiple deprivations for more than 50 percent of Pakistan’s population.
Poverty up by 12.7 percent in three years
India Poverty is decreasing yoy whereas Pakistan poverty is increasing yoy. Today Pakistan Poverty ratio is more than India. After 10-20 Years, there will be huge difference. Still I failed to understand why Pakistani people raise India Poverty.
The economic survey refers to a study by Asian Development Bank that estimates the impact of food inflation on populations in different countries. For Pakistan, ADB calculated that in case of 10 percent food inflation, 2.2 percent of the population enters poverty. In case of 20 percent food inflation, the number of people falling in poverty track is 4.5 percent. At 30 percent food inflation, an estimated 6.7 percent population enters poverty trap.
According to official statistics of the government, food inflation in 2008-09 was 26.6 percent. According the estimates of ADB quoted in the Economic Survey 2010-11, poverty should have increased by around 6 percent in 2008-09 (5.985 percent to be exact). The food inflation in 2009-10 was 12 percent as stated in latest economic survey. Accordingly additional 2.64 percent of the population entered poverty circle that year.
This year food inflation officially has been 18.4 percent which means another addition of 4.14 percent population that lives below poverty line. This means that 12.75 percent of the population of Pakistan has entered poverty circle in three years rule of this government.
One fact worth noting is that the last national poverty figure of 22.3 percent was declared in economic survey of 2005-06. No poverty figures were released in 2006-07 and 2007-08 but food inflation during these two years was 10.28 percent and 17.65 percent respectively. Applying ADB formula of increase in poverty, it increased by 2.26 percent in 2006-07 and 3.88 percent in 2007-08. Thus poverty increased by 18.90 percent during 2006-2011 periods.
If we add 18.90 percent increase in poverty to the documented the 2006-07 poverty figures of 22.3, total poverty in the country should be 41.2 percent which means that 74.16 million people in Pakistan live below poverty line.
The high impact of food inflation in Pakistan is also supported by the price trend of essential food commodities between January 08 (just prior to general election) and May 19, 2011. Wheat flour rates increased during this period by 46 percent from Rs19.41 to Rs28.31 per kg. Beef rates jumped by 85 percent from Rs122.33 to Rs226.22 per kg. Prices of mutton registered a rise of 88 percent from Rs233.79 to Rs440.06.
The rates of chicken meat increased from Rs74.74 to Rs12512 per kg depicting an increase of 67 percent. Fresh milk was available at Rs29.63 in January 08 but its price increased by 86.5 percent to Rs55.27 by May 19, 2011. According to the latest economic survey, rates of cooking oil increase during this period by 64.5 percent, rice by 57 percent, sugar by 152 percent and Mash pulse by 122 percent. The Survey in its chapter on poverty though conceded that the social and economic exclusion has resulted in multiple deprivations for more than 50 percent of Pakistan’s population.
Poverty up by 12.7 percent in three years
India Poverty is decreasing yoy whereas Pakistan poverty is increasing yoy. Today Pakistan Poverty ratio is more than India. After 10-20 Years, there will be huge difference. Still I failed to understand why Pakistani people raise India Poverty.
