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Is solar power really the best solution for Pakistan?

Yes.. because you like to buy electricity from Iran... if left to you, you would buy sand from Iran and pay by selling Pakistan to IMF like your tribal leader aka Mr. 10%.
No idea why some N League fans like to over-think. No idea what you are talking about

If I was given the responsibility back in 2008, I would correct my priorities first and invest handsome money on serious projects rather than wasting money on incorrect priorities. The priorities are just not in order and same money could have been used for better projects which we wasted in several less important infrastructural and non-development projects.

If we average the total (Federal and provincial) development budget spent in Pakistan since 2008, it's more than 1000 billion rupees each year. In past 7 years you have spent 7000 billion rupees for development in Pakistan. That is besides indirect development projects, aids and grants by foreign nations and NGO's fetching in another hundreds of billions of rupees. Most of this money is spent on education, health and infrastructural projects but very little amount spent on pushing the economy on right track.

The biggest investment in energy sector is being made to pay back the bills of circular debt but nothing much is done to rectify core issues. They stands intact like 7 years ago. If even 10% of that development budget was spent on energy projects, we would have key projects of Dasu (partially completed), Neelum Jhelum and extensions of Tarbela dam many years ago, that is the least we could do with it.

The government has always lacked broader plans to revive the economy, just recently they shocked Bill Gates by asking him to make hardware manufacturing plant in Pakistan, not long ago they built the most expensive bus service in the history of mankind, not long ago they pledged 5 billion rupees for youth scheme and spent most of this money in advertising. The priorities has never been right, I am not saying the bus service is not important but it is the question of whether you first need food or mobile phone... the priorities need to be set in order
 
No idea why some N League fans like to over-think. No idea what you are talking about

If I was given the responsibility back in 2008, I would correct my priorities first and invest handsome money on serious projects rather than wasting money on incorrect priorities. The priorities are just not in order and same money could have been used for better projects which we wasted in several less important infrastructural and non-development projects.

If we average the total (Federal and provincial) development budget spent in Pakistan since 2008, it's more than 1000 billion rupees each year. In past 7 years you have spent 7000 billion rupees for development in Pakistan. That is besides indirect development projects, aids and grants by foreign nations and NGO's fetching in another hundreds of billions of rupees. Most of this money is spent on education, health and infrastructural projects but very little amount spent on pushing the economy on right track.

The biggest investment in energy sector is being made to pay back the bills of circular debt but nothing much is done to rectify core issues. They stands intact like 7 years ago. If even 10% of that development budget was spent on energy projects, we would have key projects of Dasu (partially completed), Neelum Jhelum and extensions of Tarbela dam many years ago, that is the least we could do with it.

The government has always lacked broader plans to revive the economy, just recently they shocked Bill Gates by asking him to make hardware manufacturing plant in Pakistan, not long ago they built the most expensive bus service in the history of mankind, not long ago they pledged 5 billion rupees for youth scheme and spent most of this money in advertising. The priorities has never been right, I am not saying the bus service is not important but it is the question of whether you first need food or mobile phone... the priorities need to be set in order

No one undermined water energy and opposed its projects or developments.... so, don't waste your time in fighting with imaginary opposition.
I have rejected the impression created in article by using QA solar energy as benchmark.
Stick to the subject of solar energy, which is the fastest way to return on investments from a private investor's POV.
I know Pakistan's power policy by heart and that's all fine and good, but what is missing is liberalization for foreign investors and this should be the PRIORITY NO 1.
Keeping foreign investors away from investing in Pakistan's sunshine, by politicizing a technical matter by comparing it water power is foul.... so who is stopping your priorities?
 
This is called tunnel thinking...........

Coming back to installed capacity vs. generation.... When the installed capacity is 100 MW than it should produce 100 MW. unless sun stop shining... if it still doesn't produce, than a technical audit is due, followed by commercial.
Comparing figures from Pakistan and declaring PV technology a fail.... reflect lack of experience or unfamiliarity with the tech.
.........
Its the choice of Pakistani public to believe that whole world incl. Indians are stupid... for investing insanely in PV energy, and trust article writers and their pseudo endorsers as gurus on solar energy.......

Clearly Pakistani politicians are conspiring against state and opposition is part and parcel of whole drama.
Pakistan have to pay to IMF and no political party can afford to liberalize energy policy of Pakistan or publicizing true figures and facts. Hence such misleading articles by fake intellectuals ......

Yes.. because you like to buy electricity from Iran... if left to you, you would buy sand from Iran and pay by selling Pakistan to IMF like your tribal leader aka Mr. 10%.


Power is a very complex factor. Let us discuss the capacity to begin with.

Simplest example is of a garden water hose. When there is sufficient pressure and the tap is fully open it would supply water at its maximum, if you open the tap half, supply is reduced and it stops completely when you shut the tap. The same analogy applies to hydel, wind & solar power generation.

Hydel power depends upon water level in the reservoir, wind power upon wind speed and solar power upon intensity of the sunlight (solar radiation) on solar panels. Therefore to say that 100 MW capacity solar plants should produce 100 MW of electricity most of the time is an incorrect assumption.

Power generation from solar panels is based on the annual average solar radiation on PVC panels, total panels area and PVC panels’ quality (efficiency). Additionally since power generated by PVC panels is DC; converting the same to AC can result in up to 20% reduction in output.

Standard criterion to compare power & name plate capacity of different types of power generation is ‘load factor’.
Load factor of more than 90%; that is actual power out per year versus capacity; is only achievable with the large fossil fuel and nuclear plants. For example if a gas based 500 MW power plant has a load factor of 95%, it means that it is producing 500 MW power 95% of the hours of the year.

Typical load factor for small coal based power plants is only about 50%. For land based wind energy & solar energy power installations, load factor on annual basis is about 25 to 30%. Concentrated PVC farms such as QA at Bahawalpur should be able to achieve up to 40% load factor if well set up and good quality photo voltaic cell panels are employed. This means that 100 MW capacity concentrated solar farm would produce full 100 MW during 40% of the hours in a year, in other words at best 100 MW solar plant would produce 40 MW of electricity on annualized basis.

What most people also don’t realize about solar power farms is the land requirement. On the average a 100MW solar farm would require about 100 acres. There is also a degradation of power generation at the rate of about 0.5% each year.

Most important benefit is reduction of CO2 emissions. Power requirement of a normal house if supplied by PVC panels (say about 4KW) would translate into reduction of as much as one tonne of CO2 emission per year versus fossil fuel generated electricity.

Disagreeing with large solar plants doesn’t not imply that countries investing in solar power farms are stupid. Priorities of each country are different. In Pakistan's case cost of energy is very important. For others public safety concerns & environment is of paramount importance. For example Germany shut down all of her nuclear plants and instead started building power plants based on indigenous lignite but with pollution controls. Italy shut down refineries in Genoa & Naples because of environment al concerns. A few years back Canadians ordered Vitol to modernize Come by Chance refinery in Newfoundland. Modernization bill was estimated at $700-million; hence they sold it to Harvest Energy.

I have already mentioned that in my humble opinion best way forward for solar power use is to install the panels on individual houses. Unlike some, I would not dare to doubt any ones’ expertize on power generation, I would only comment that little knowledge is a dangerous thing.
 
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Power is a very complex factor. Let us discuss the capacity to begin with.

Simplest example is of a garden water hose. When there is sufficient pressure and the tap is fully open it would supply water at its maximum, if you open the tap half, supply is reduced and it stops completely when you shut the tap. The same analogy applies to hydel, wind & solar power generation.

Hydel power depends upon water level in the reservoir, wind power upon wind speed and solar power upon intensity of the sunlight (solar radiation) on solar panels. Therefore to say that 100 MW capacity solar plants should produce 100 MW of electricity most of the time is an incorrect assumption.

Power generation from solar panels is based on the annual average solar radiation on PVC panels, total panels area and PVC panels’ quality (efficiency). Additionally since power generated by PVC panels is DC; converting the same to AC can result in up to 20% reduction in output.

Standard criterion to compare power & name plate capacity of different types of power generation is ‘load factor’.
Load factor of more than 90%; that is actual power out per year versus capacity; is only achievable with the large fossil fuel and nuclear plants. For example if a gas based 500 MW power plant has a load factor of 95%, it means that it is producing 500 MW power 95% of the hours of the year.

Typical load factor for small coal based power plants is only about 50%. For land based wind energy & solar energy power installations, load factor on annual basis is about 25 to 30%. Concentrated PVC farms such as QA at Bahawalpur should be able to achieve up to 40% load factor if well set up and good quality photo voltaic cell panels are employed. This means that 100 MW capacity concentrated solar farm would produce full 100 MW during 40% of the hours in a year, in other words at best 100 MW solar plant would produce 40 MW of electricity on annualized basis.

What most people also don’t realize about solar power farms is the land requirement. On the average a 100MW solar farm would require about 100 acres. There is also a degradation of power generation at the rate of about 0.5% each year.

Most important benefit is reduction of CO2 emissions. Power requirement of a normal house if supplied by PVC panels (say about 4KW) would translate into reduction of as much as one tonne of CO2 emission per year versus fossil fuel generated electricity.

Disagreeing with large solar plants doesn’t not imply that countries investing in solar power farms are stupid. Priorities of each country are different. In Pakistan's case cost of energy is very important. For others public safety concerns & environment is of paramount importance. For example Germany shut down all of her nuclear plants and instead started building power plants based on indigenous lignite but with pollution controls. Italy shut down refineries in Genoa & Naples because of environment al concerns. A few years back Canadians ordered Vitol to modernize Come by Chance refinery in Newfoundland. Modernization bill was estimated at $700-million; hence they sold it to Harvest Energy.

I have already mentioned that in my humble opinion best way forward for solar power use is to install the panels on individual houses. Unlike some, I would not dare to doubt any ones’ expertize on power generation, I would only comment that little knowledge is a dangerous thing.
Either you should argue against the OP or in favor!
With your posts its really confusing, weather you r in favor or against the motion!
Now, why you quoted my post? Your basically arguing nothing!
There is nothing which i have not already wrote!
Did i said generation capacity remains same, even when sun stop shinning?
Did i not mentioned about efficiency of solar panels in my first post?
Did i not mentioned of utility of PV in domestic application?
Did i not mentioned Germany investing heavily in solar energy? Did i not mentioned Germany and US spending $BILLIONS in PV energy just across the border!

So... please, read my posts again, point out what is wrong, so i can correct my self, otherwise you are not helping.

Did i challenge any standards?
I know, IEC or NEMA or MEPS or VDE or UL..... describe allowed tolerances, in specifying name plates of electrical components and set guidelines and limits of network parameters, but can you help me list the publication number of IEEE or IEC standard you quote your 95% figure for specifying generation capacity? which is actually not happening in QA solar park and your precise input can really defeat the notion that PV generation should be any different to the conventional generation in specifying capacity.

Since you listed positive side of PV energy, but there are huge down sides too, which are also reason of split among the technocrats of state, but those are highly technical, and cannot be explained here or to a fresh electrical engineer.
In short those are related to the quality of electricity, difficulties in planning of various grid parameters, energy managment... etc. and i have always debated aginst those facts... at least in terms of Pakistan, where electricity is not available, grid is heavily overloaded, consumer already have no right, while state is wasting $ BILLIONS annualy on import of oil and now gs as well.

Now the bloody article writer is finance specialist but is completey over looking the waste of precious forex, which is hard earned by the publuc working in middleast.

Govt. is clearly not acting wise by missing the solar band wagon and not following the road map defined in Pakistan's energy policy 2002, which any one could down load.

I say again... i strongly reject the idea that Pakistan should ban PV energy, as it is against national or economical interest and QA solar park only reflects corruption in Pakistan and ZERO integrity in Chinese business practices.
In the end when we spend money, we should take care that we are not being fooled or cheated by the international conractors.
 
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I don't understand why the F Pakistan wants to build expensive Solar, Thermal and Nuclear power plants :hitwall: when it is blessed with flowing rivers and one of the largest fresh water reservoirs in the north. Build the F'in Dams and Hydro-power project. It will generate the cheapest energy in the world. Convert every mother trucking thing in Pakistan to electric power, from cars to trains. , Exports will increase due to lower cost of production, Our Industry will bloom. Foreign investment from Major world companies will fly in due to lower cost of production and higher profits margins. Pakistan will save $15 Billion on oil imports. Spend this $15 billion improving infrastructure, Education or law enforcement. According to multiplier effect $1 spend will cause $4 worth of economic activity. 15 x 4 = $60. Excluding everything else i.e Taxes and foreign investment. My friends we are talking about doubling our GDP in less than a decade. :flame:
 
I don't understand why the F Pakistan wants to build expensive Solar, Thermal and Nuclear power plants :hitwall: when it is blessed with flowing rivers and one of the largest fresh water reservoirs in the north. Build the F'in Dams and Hydro-power project. It will generate the cheapest energy in the world. Convert every mother trucking thing in Pakistan to electric power, from cars to trains. , Exports will increase due to lower cost of production, Our Industry will bloom. Foreign investment from Major world companies will fly in due to lower cost of production and higher profits margins. Pakistan will save $15 Billion on oil imports. Spend this $15 billion improving infrastructure, Education or law enforcement. According to multiplier effect $1 spend will cause $4 worth of economic activity. 15 x 4 = $60. Excluding everything else i.e Taxes and foreign investment. My friends we are talking about doubling our GDP in less than a decade. :flame:

Democracy delivered by long marches, is the answer to your questions.
So called dictator drafted Pakistan's first ever energy policy in 2002, which was later scrapped by Zardari and no opposition objected it incl. Imran Khan.
At least you have clear understanding of spendings on oil and gas imports.
I would add.. there are spendings on oil and gas fired generation infrastructure and their services and operations, as well.
 
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Either you should argue against the OP or in favor!
With your posts its really confusing, weather you r in favor or against the motion!
Now, why you quoted my post? Your basically arguing nothing!
There is nothing which i have not already wrote!
Did i said generation capacity remains same, even when sun stop shinning?
Did i not mentioned about efficiency of solar panels in my first post?
Did i not mentioned of utility of PV in domestic application?
Did i not mentioned Germany investing heavily in solar energy? Did i not mentioned Germany and US spending $BILLIONS in PV energy just across the border!

So... please, read my posts again, point out what is wrong, so i can correct my self, otherwise you are not helping.

Did i challenge any standards?
I know, IEC or NEMA or MEPS or VDE or UL..... describe allowed tolerances, in specifying name plates of electrical components and set guidelines and limits of network parameters, but can you help me list the publication number of IEEE or IEC standard you quote your 95% figure for specifying generation capacity? which is actually not happening in QA solar park and your precise input can really defeat the notion that PV generation should be any different to the conventional generation in specifying capacity.

Since you listed positive side of PV energy, but there are huge down sides too, which are also reason of split among the technocrats of state, but those are highly technical, and cannot be explained here or to a fresh electrical engineer.
In short those are related to the quality of electricity, difficulties in planning of various grid parameters, energy managment... etc. and i have always debated aginst those facts... at least in terms of Pakistan, where electricity is not available, grid is heavily overloaded, consumer already have no right, while state is wasting $ BILLIONS annualy on import of oil and now gs as well.

Now the bloody article writer is finance specialist but is completey over looking the waste of precious forex, which is hard earned by the publuc working in middleast.

Govt. is clearly not acting wise by missing the solar band wagon and not following the road map defined in Pakistan's energy policy 2002, which any one could down load.

I say again... i strongly reject the idea that Pakistan should ban PV energy, as it is against national or economical interest and QA solar park only reflects corruption in Pakistan and ZERO integrity in Chinese business practices.
In the end when we spend money, we should take care that we are not being fooled or cheated by the international conractors.

Honourable OTTOMAN,

I read your post carefully like I do all posts dealing with the energy or petroleum. On the contrary it appears that you have not fully understood the point I was trying make.

My reason for quoting your post was to correct the misconception about Solar Power that many of my countrymen had until they came across QA Bahawalpur fiasco. Especially so because you stated Germans are not stupid. In other words people/countries who oppose solar power are!

Nearly everyone who is not directly involved with the International Energy scene is unaware of the facts about German power policy.

Due to pressure from ‘Green’ lobby, in 2000 German gov’t decided to abandon reliance on fossil/nuclear based power regardless of the cost and passed German Renewable Energy Act. Thru FIT ( Feed in tariff) compensation scheme; initially payments of 51 Euro cents (about 66 cents) per KWH of electricity produced thru PV ( Photo Voltaic) cells were offered up to the year 2020. This is equal to Pak Rs 66 per unit! Pray tell me, can GOP afford such level of subsidies?

In august 2012 Renewable Energy Law was amended and now the FIT reward has been reduced to plants of less than 10-MW capacity. Understand average FIR subsidy is still close to 32 Euro cents per KWH.

It was because of this incentive that installed PV capacity in Germany rose to 36 GW by 2014 producing about 30 TWH or 5.7% to total power production of Germany.

As of May 2015, total installed capacity of solar power in Germany is 38.5 GW. Out of 1.6-million PVC installations supplying surplus power to the grid about 90% are households with 10 KW of less capacity, others being office & industrial buildings with only 3 large solar farms of 100 MW or more. These being Solar park Meuro (166 MW), Nehardenberg Solar park (145 MW) and Templin solar park (128 MW).

Until 2007 FIT subsidies were about 2-billion Euros per annum. However with the jump in the price of oil and hence that of electricity; installation off PVC panels mushroomed and FIT payments rose 10-billion Euros (about $13- billion) in 2013. This is close to total oil import bill of Pakistan which was about $14 -billion in 2014. Pakistan certainly cannot afford this kind of incentive for the expansion into solar power. That’s why I stated that environment was the priority in Germany.

One must also remember that Germany has offered incentives to power producers using bio-mass & bio gas. As now 31% of all electricity produced in Germany is from renewable sources whereas share of solar power is only 5.7% of the national total. Thus German has gone into bio mass power in a much bigger way.

I repeat my assertion that solar is still the most expensive way of producing electricity. Pakistan can’t afford the luxury of going the solar route in a big way as Germany has done.

Chinese technology is still at an embryonic stage and not at par with the German technology. The reason for generation of less than 20 MW power from a 100 MW QA plant is not only the corruption but could also be low quality of the PVC panels, however, no one except the Chinese were willing to set up the solar farm at Bahawalpur. Pakistan has not ‘Banned’ solar energy. Only after burning their fingers with QA Solar Park experience, there would be reluctance to have more large installations.


I was visiting Petroplus Coryton refinery in Essex in 2011 just before Petroplus went bust and the refinery was shut down. I took the opportunity to visit 770 MW Combined Cycle Corryton Power plant as well.

I was verbally informed that the plant had a load factor of more than 90%, however on the website it only mentions ‘gas supply required for PLF of 90%’. Only other reference I can find is noted below , but it only mentions average load factors for UK.

Energy Efficiency
 
Congratulations Pakistanis... i heard govt. of Pakistan have formalized the metering to buy electricity from civilians, i don't know how far they are in implementation.
My advice, invest in solar.
 

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