Iranian Economy.....news and discussions

[HGV]

You did get attacked in Syria, and recently you got attacked in your own country too.

All you do is spam nonsense in the Iranian threads. What was Turkey's response when Israel massacred Turkish aid workers?

 

[LegionnairE]

All you do is spam nonsense in the Iranian threads. What was Turkey's response when Israel massacred Turkish aid workers?

aid workers? bunch of cocksuckers. Nobody cares.

 

[HGV]

aid workers? bunch of cocksuckers. Nobody cares.

So Israel massacred unarmed Turkish citizens and you did nothing. Got it.

 

[LegionnairE]

So Israel massacred unarmed Turkish citizens and you did nothing. Got it.

That's not true, I did something, I laughed.

 

[Stryker1982]

These figures are in US dollars so the inflation of Lira or Rial inflation isn't part of the equation.

I was always a proponent of Pakistani JF-17s in Iran. With support from ground based SAM systems, these planes could preform hit & run attacks on an enemy, also an assymetric threat against naval assets such as aircraft carriers.

Yes these figures are in fact in US dollars but you are missing one very very important thing.

"For the draft budget in the Iranian calendar year 1401, which was submitted in November 2021 and forms the basis of SIPRI’s 2021 expenditure estimate, the budget exchange rate was IRR 230,000—a rate five times higher than the IRR 42,000 official rate. In other words, SIPRI’s 2021 yearbook overstates Iran’s military spending by a factor of five. Using the budget exchange rate, Iran’s total military expenditure is just $4.5 billion, a total that places Iran outside of the Top 40 military spenders in the world. "

SIPRI Has Overstated Iran's Military Spending For Years — Bourse & Bazaar Foundation

SIPRI produces the world’s most authoritative data on global military expenditure and the arms trade. But for years they have been overstating the size of Iran’s military budget.

www.bourseandbazaar.com

Your graph in red, real is in black.

 

[Stryker1982]

Do you feel like you're getting your money's worth? No air, Not much of a navy, just little drones and ballistic missiles.

You're spending more money than Turkey, are you getting beter capabilities than Turkey? Because you should be.

Also 1. Don't underestimate Greece and 2. be it Greece or Russia or France, or assymetric threats in Iran, Iraq, Syria. Doesn't matter we play our own game. Turkish military isn't modeled around fighting just Greece or any one enemy.

Theirs alot to unpack here. I will probably write about what you are saying later. Just briefly.

You have to have a deeper historical understanding of the industries in Iran, where it is and where it was in the scientific realm, and perhaps more importantly, the specific & very unique threats (which are enormous) it faces, and how it must behave and develop to counter or confront these threats.

What it must invest in, and what it can post-pone for later. Their are alot of specifics that would give you a deeper understanding of what is going on, and what direction things are heading that will change somewhat ignorant remarks.

For example, currently for the IRI-N and IRGC-N, their are 5 Naval ships being built simultaneously that we know of. Previously, surface ship building in Iran was very slow and very poor. The development of an Iranian VLS on ships had no existence in Iran nor did a SAM that can be fitted onto a surface vessel. It is not as if it could purchase or licence production from other nations or receiving training, tech transfer etc... Therefore these systems had to be developed from the ground up, and without this element, no ship can have a good chance of survival in hot conflict. A suitable AESA radar or CIWS also did not exist even 5 years ago. It is simply not worth building a surface fleet until the issues of R&D and components are up to date.

Therefore when you say no navy, what you are not noticing is the development of the naval components throughout the years that will eventually lead to a complete and well rounded navy, with a secure supply chain. This development could be sped up with willing partners, but Iran has not had any. Thankfully, the work has already been completed and the results are being pursued today as their is a evident push for a blue water capability that was extremely limited even 3 years ago. All new ships under construction will meet modern standards and are being built quickly. In the next 5 years if this rate of construction is maintained, Iran will have a modern navy.

Theirs alot to talk about, in the upgrades the AF as experienced to keep its old fleet relevant, the field of ballistic missile and cruise missile, the infrastructure to support them, as well as plans to reach Geo strategic orbit for a self-sufficient space-based ISR program. This last sentence alone is a multi-billion dollar effort. Alot of these have large development costs without the money of China USA or Russia. I can elaborate later.

 

[lydian fall]

@waz

Kindly Ban @LegionnairE from Iranian section.

Since we don't have international mod he's free for chit-chat and mocking Iranian achievements

 

[LegionnairE]

Yes these figures are in fact in US dollars but you are missing one very very important thing.

"For the draft budget in the Iranian calendar year 1401, which was submitted in November 2021 and forms the basis of SIPRI’s 2021 expenditure estimate, the budget exchange rate was IRR 230,000—a rate five times higher than the IRR 42,000 official rate. In other words, SIPRI’s 2021 yearbook overstates Iran’s military spending by a factor of five. Using the budget exchange rate, Iran’s total military expenditure is just $4.5 billion, a total that places Iran outside of the Top 40 military spenders in the world. "

SIPRI Has Overstated Iran's Military Spending For Years — Bourse & Bazaar Foundation

SIPRI produces the world’s most authoritative data on global military expenditure and the arms trade. But for years they have been overstating the size of Iran’s military budget.

www.bourseandbazaar.com

Your graph in red, real is in black.

Alright 4.5 Billion dollars makes more sense. We're definitely not seeing an army that spends 25 billion dollars a year. Especially considering the purchasing parity.

Theirs alot to unpack here. I will probably write about what you are saying later. Just briefly.

You have to have a deeper historical understanding of the industries in Iran, where it is and where it was in the scientific realm, and perhaps more importantly, the specific & very unique threats (which are enormous) it faces, and how it must behave and develop to counter or confront these threats.

What it must invest in, and what it can post-pone for later. Their are alot of specifics that would give you a deeper understanding of what is going on, and what direction things are heading that will change somewhat ignorant remarks.

For example, currently for the IRI-N and IRGC-N, their are 5 Naval ships being built simultaneously that we know of. Previously, surface ship building in Iran was very slow and very poor. The development of an Iranian VLS on ships had no existence in Iran nor did a SAM that can be fitted onto a surface vessel. It is not as if it could purchase or licence production from other nations or receiving training, tech transfer etc... Therefore these systems had to be developed from the ground up, and without this element, no ship can have a good chance of survival in hot conflict. A suitable AESA radar or CIWS also did not exist even 5 years ago. It is simply not worth building a surface fleet until the issues of R&D and components are up to date.

Therefore when you say no navy, what you are not noticing is the development of the naval components throughout the years that will eventually lead to a complete and well rounded navy, with a secure supply chain. This development could be sped up with willing partners, but Iran has not had any. Thankfully, the work has already been completed and the results are being pursued today as their is a evident push for a blue water capability that was extremely limited even 3 years ago. All new ships under construction will meet modern standards and are being built quickly. In the next 5 years if this rate of construction is maintained, Iran will have a modern navy.

Theirs alot to talk about, in the upgrades the AF as experienced to keep its old fleet relevant, the field of ballistic missile and cruise missile, the infrastructure to support them, as well as plans to reach Geo strategic orbit for a self-sufficient space-based ISR program. This last sentence alone is a multi-billion dollar effort. Alot of these have large development costs without the money of China USA or Russia. I can elaborate later.

I agree you can't build a real navy without a good CIWS, But now that you have it, these missile boats should be replaced with proper FACs

I would go for that before making any big frigates with VLS, big radars etc.

But if the budget is only 4.5 Billion dollars, it makes sense that these things would take a while. Because Iran has a huge army to arm and cloth & feed.

So how much of this budget goes to development and procurement of new equipment do you reckon?

@waz

Kindly Ban @LegionnairE from Iranian section.

Since we don't have international mod he's free for chit-chat and mocking Iranian achievements

He'll do no such thing.

Now shut up while grown ups are talking.

 

[Hack-Hook]

But if the budget is only 4.5 Billion dollars, it makes sense that these things would take a while. Because Iran has a huge army to arm and cloth & feed.

So how much of this budget goes to development and procurement of new equipment do you reckon?

as far as i am aware 4.5 bilion is the budget to increase the capability of Iran armed force in all branches , not the budget to maintain them

 

[aryobarzan]

as far as i am aware 4.5 bilion is the budget to increase the capability of Iran armed force in all branches , not the budget to maintain them

Until Iran has a real exchange rate for dollar none of these figures make any valid sense...Iranian currency is now being "SHORTED" by the US treasury department US treasury is buying any available $dollars that comes to the Iranian open market inorder to remove the dollars and make the price of any remaining dollars astronomically high. So until we get a real exchange rate all numbers non valid.

 

[LegionnairE]

as far as i am aware 4.5 bilion is the budget to increase the capability of Iran armed force in all branches , not the budget to maintain them

interesting, I would like to see how this is partitioned between branches, like how much does IRGC get compared to the army, navy and the air force.
And how much the maintenance budget is.

I'm sure the Iranian government isn't very open about these figures but I'm also sure there are estimates

Until Iran has a real exchange rate for dollar none of these figures make any valid sense...Iranian currency is now being "SHORTED" by the US treasury department US treasury is buying any available $dollars that comes to the Iranian open market inorder to remove the dollars and make the price of any remaining dollars astronomically high. So until we get a real exchange rate all numbers non valid.

I mean even if you can't put an exact number on it, you can make a value judgement, which projects are the most expensive ones? Which branch is getting the most resources?

it should be relatively easy to figure out

 

[aryobarzan]

mean even if you can't put an exact number on it, you can make a value judgement, which projects are the most expensive ones? Which branch is getting the most resources?

of course IRGC gets the lions share...AD is the next (AD is a separate Corp in Iran military)..Regular Navy..and AF are the next in line. My own guess Iran total military budget is between 20 to 30 billion comparing the size and equipment and very extensive infrastructure underground...something that people usually do not think about.

 

[LegionnairE]

of course IRGC gets the lions share...AD is the next (AD is a separate Corp in Iran military)..Regular Navy..and AF are the next in line. My own guess Iran total military budget is between 20 to 30 billion comparing the size and equipment and very extensive infrastructure underground...something that people usually do not think about.

if you're getting 4.5 billion procurement budget out of 20-30 million total budget, then you need to shrink your military to make it a more powerful force. That's an incredible amount.

instead of 4.5 to 20 I'm sure you would like 9 to 15

And what would be the biggest procurement project of IRGC?

 

[aryobarzan]

if you're getting 4.5 billion procurement budget out of 20-30 million total budget, then you need to shrink your military to make it a more powerful force. That's an incredible amount.

instead of 4.5 to 20 I'm sure you would like 9 to 15

And what would be the biggest procurement project of IRGC?

We are guessing things that are not presented very open by military of any country:

Capital acquisition budget may or may not be part of a military budget depend who does the budgeting..

IRGC Procurements are a black hole not public to any one but the few top guys...And they buy components of subsystem instead of turnkey systems/subsystems and also they probably buy TECH licenses and production equipment..

SU-35 procurement (If true) will not be out of regular military budget.

Iran's last turnkey big procurements were S-300 ..The three kilo subs and that tracked AD system I forgot the name.

 

[Stryker1982]

as far as i am aware 4.5 bilion is the budget to increase the capability of Iran armed force in all branches , not the budget to maintain them

interesting, I would like to see how this is partitioned between branches, like how much does IRGC get compared to the army, navy and the air force.
And how much the maintenance budget is.

I'm sure the Iranian government isn't very open about these figures but I'm also sure there are estimates

It's not. The overall military spending for the army has been declining for years and we've even noted this in the threads years before. This is a yearly decline as a result of lower petrolium exports, double digit shrinking GDP, and running inflation since USA launched Maximum pressure campaign (right in the year of decline 2018). Military spending is around 2-3% of the budget which would be around $4+ billion.

The IRGC also gets a few billion in budget but the IRGC has their own means of profit since they also have a vast private enterprise to the tune of billions of dollars of revenues. Therefore, they are in the most healthy position to be the leading cause of tech growth inside Iran. As you said, the figures are very shady.

I agree you can't build a real navy without a good CIWS, But now that you have it, these missile boats should be replaced with proper FACs

I would go for that before making any big frigates with VLS, big radars etc.

But if the budget is only 4.5 Billion dollars, it makes sense that these things would take a while. Because Iran has a huge army to arm and cloth & feed.

So how much of this budget goes to development and procurement of new equipment do you reckon?

Yes, for large ships these new developments are very recent, but budget limitations slows down growth. What we are seeing is most growth is coming from IRGC whom have recently got into building big surface ships instead of sticking to small missile boats and anti-shipping TELs.

So we see new changes in better missiles boats and much improved speed and longer range missiles to avoid close proximity to ships in the Persian Gulf. These are improvements within the IRGC.

Iran has alot of FACs but they do not have CIWS, and they desperately need upgrades which will probably be seen in the future as CIWS becomes more common and available. Essentially you have a large fleet of small ships that need upgrades which will take some time. Let alone spending the resources to build big frigates.

How much goes to development of new equipment? Very few and it is become quite apparent because the speed of upgrades and procurement of new equipment is slow within the regular army. Only the IRGC is capable of rapidly taking items from design into production and in quantities worth noting. When I mentioned 5 ships simultaneously. 4 of them are being produced by the IRGC at signficant speeds. If I am not mistaken, the first ship in Iran with a domestic CIWS and VLS was unveiled only a few months ago built by the IRGC with another to probably be unveiled by the new year (late march). They are working on modernizing the Navy at fast speeds right now, and the only people who have the resources to do it is the IRGC. The regular navy is still lacking alot of important military naval needs.

As for the future direction, it has become apparent what direction it will be heading.

IRI-Navy will continue to be aged and older, but will come up with a new ship every once and a while that will display the latest growth in military industry but quanity production is a whole other matter with such a limited budget and tough economic times. They are building their first ship with a good AESA radar, but how many can be built realistically? This trend will maintain.

IRGC-Navy is clearly being focused on by top branch. IRGC which never had ship building experience is building multiple Catamarans at the same time, and actually building them with good amount of what is considered the normal among a modern navy. Previously their naval capabilities were limited to anti-shipping based missiles, FACs, and small missile boats, clearly they are shifting priorities into a blue water navy, but without the "high seas" part of a blue navy. Therefore, its evident that IRGC wants a bigger presence in the Gulf of Oman and Northern Indian ocean.

So in comparison with Turkiye, Iran won't have a modernized and large blue navy anytime soon, but within its own waters and around the waters surround Iran like the Northern Indian ocean, it will be equipped well if things continue at this rate. Personally, I think the era of super focus on Ballistic/cruise missiles, digging tunnels, portals and silos everywhere, building underground powerplants and all this infrastructure construction is slowing down as the needs are already met. Shifting of priorities. As we've also seen in the news, they are looking to procure Russian aircraft and attack helicopters so the funding is clearly getting shifted since each ship and aircraft is a high cost.

The ground forces however............far behind standard. As long as their is no impression of any land threat. Little will change in this area.