Iranian Chill Thread

[thesaint]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1721655339538334141

 

[Oldman1]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1721502807981777044

Most likely not? Its an SSGN. Not an SSBN. They wouldn't show it or surface it to show something like that.

If this goes on maybe it is the chance for germany to get rid of the US bases too.

Won't be possible considering the threat by Russia.

 

[Stryker1982]

Most likely not? Its an SSGN. Not an SSBN. They wouldn't show it or surface it to show something like that.

Yup. Loaded with alot of tomahawks, although not really a big deal in the grand scheme of things, overestimating the impact of 160 CMs to a large country like Iran (some will fail, some will get intercepted etc...).

Airpower of USAF in the region vastly surpasses 1 ohio class ship. Combine it all together though and you have a nasty missile warfare. The key element being that theirs's really no way to counter these subs.

 

[jauk]

Yup. Loaded with alot of tomahawks, although not really a big deal in the grand scheme of things, overestimating the impact of 160 CMs to a large country like Iran (some will fail, some will get intercepted etc...).

Airpower of USAF in the region vastly surpasses 1 ohio class ship. Combine it all together though and you have a nasty missile warfare. The key element being that theirs's really no way to counter these subs.

Asymmetry.

 

[zartosht]

By threatning Iran with a nuclear strike, the US is admitting that their regional conventional forces would get slaughtered by Iran.

Nuclear subs are the ultimate weapon, guaranteeing a second strike capability incase the homeland is anahilated jn a surprise attack

the US is basically threatening Iran with literally the most potent weapon in its arsenal.

Iranian leaders have done a great job building Irans military capacity. Not even the US dares challenge Iran.

However its criminal negligence at this point if Iran is not seriously looking at nuclear icbms aimed at the us homeland.

Thats the last real advantage the US has at this point. And it would absolutely guarantee Iranian security. All the tech is there, its only a political decision

 

[Blue In Green]

Yup. Loaded with alot of tomahawks, although not really a big deal in the grand scheme of things, overestimating the impact of 160 CMs to a large country like Iran (some will fail, some will get intercepted etc...).

Airpower of USAF in the region vastly surpasses 1 ohio class ship. Combine it all together though and you have a nasty missile warfare. The key element being that theirs's really no way to counter these subs.

They’re bringing in way too much stuff just to deter Iran but what the hell do I know lol. You’d think there are many in places of power in Washington that want their “Iran war” no matter the cost.

It’s be a perfect excuse to go after nuclear infrastructure and square that problem off.

 

[tsunset]

They’re bringing in way too much stuff just to deter Iran but what the hell do I know lol. You’d think there are many in places of power in Washington that want their “Iran war” no matter the cost.

It’s be a perfect excuse to go after nuclear infrastructure and square that problem off.

No matter the cost for these US place of power, but when people like me in the EU, people inside the US will have to pay 2000 euros to refuel a basic car, they will not stay idle, the commodities market would also go crazy

US can't afford a war with Iran and it is shown by nuclear blackmailing

 

[jauk]

By threatning Iran with a nuclear strike, the US is admitting that their regional conventional forces would get slaughtered by Iran.

Nuclear subs are the ultimate weapon, guaranteeing a second strike capability incase the homeland is anahilated jn a surprise attack

the US is basically threatening Iran with literally the most potent weapon in its arsenal.

Iranian leaders have done a great job building Irans military capacity. Not even the US dares challenge Iran.

However its criminal negligence at this point if Iran is not seriously looking at nuclear icbms aimed at the us homeland.

Thats the last real advantage the US has at this point. And it would absolutely guarantee Iranian security. All the tech is there, its only a political decision

Although Iran already is armed, it has not made it public. Probably the best known secret amongst governments.

So the question is WHEN would Iran declare? What are the criteria that need to be met? Have these criteria been met today? Clearly not.

Regardless, this is an excellent example of Iranian strategic thinking where Iran doesn’t take action solely by singular events.

It seems Iran would declare once things warrant to do so ie the criteria are met. It’s very possible opponents who have gamed this correctly would know what the criteria are and act accordingly.

 

[Blue In Green]

No matter the cost for these US place of power, but when people like me in the EU, people inside the US will have to pay 2000 euros to refuel a basic car, they will not stay idle, the commodities market would also go crazy

US can't afford a war with Iran and it is shown by nuclear blackmailing

I hope so.

 

[Oldman1]

By threatning Iran with a nuclear strike, the US is admitting that their regional conventional forces would get slaughtered by Iran.

Nuclear subs are the ultimate weapon, guaranteeing a second strike capability incase the homeland is anahilated jn a surprise attack

the US is basically threatening Iran with literally the most potent weapon in its arsenal.

Iranian leaders have done a great job building Irans military capacity. Not even the US dares challenge Iran.

However its criminal negligence at this point if Iran is not seriously looking at nuclear icbms aimed at the us homeland.

Thats the last real advantage the US has at this point. And it would absolutely guarantee Iranian security. All the tech is there, its only a political decision

LOL! No, this is just an SSGN. We haven't use nukes since WW2. There's enough conventional forces to hit Iran, the Iranian posters know that.

 

[TheImmortal]

There's enough conventional forces to hit Iran, the Iranian posters know that.

Conventional forces to overthrow Iran? No. Don’t exist in reality. Saddam couldn’t even break the Iranian border region with a 1M man army and one of the biggest military forces on earth (at the time) in 1980’s.

There is near zero chance any foreign power could successfully land invade Iran. You would need more than 1M soldiers maybe as high as 2M. Iran is a massive mountainous country with its cities located in mountain terrain and a large armed forces + militia (Basij) to back them up. This makes land invasion a political non stater for USA.

Now on the nuclear end there is a risk (for Iran). Regarding the point I made above where a global power like US also realizes the futility of land invasion option, would try to make Iran surrender using the same rationale/justification as nuclear strikes on Japan. (i.e. That the invasion of Japan would have been too costly on both sides and that nuclear strikes saved more lives and kept devastation minimized)

Now the chance that US would do pre-emptive nuclear strikes on Iranian military assets and leadership to cause unilateral surrender is very very low —as long as nuclear weapons stay in Pandora’s box and MAD doctrine is upheld by all nuclear powers. The second it is broken —every country with nukes or close to nukes will be ready to use it at a moments notice ie a Global Cold War.

So US does not have the conventional tools to change Iran in any menagonfil way. If they did, 2020 Trump and the neocons had the greenlight after Al-Assad Missile attack to conduct a “shock and awe 2.0” and yet they didn’t.

 

[TheImmortal]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1721684310938316838

https://twitter.com/x/status/1721711007570022548

https://twitter.com/x/status/1721635927699698079

 

[Blue In Green]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1721684310938316838

https://twitter.com/x/status/1721711007570022548

https://twitter.com/x/status/1721635927699698079

It’s probably too early to tell but where would you put each respective sides goals at? Has one achieved theirs more so than the others thus far?

I feel like if Hamas did this to bring the Palestinian issue back to the forefront then they sure as hell succeed (?).

 

[OldTwilight]

The current ongoing genocide in Gaza shows that our current enemies have no morale scope .
In any war with us , they will try to kill our population in mass ...

So for god know how many time, as a sane and brave realistic Iranian , I repeat myself :" Iran should have nuclear weapons"

 

[SalarHack]

It’s probably too early to tell but where would you put each respective sides goals at? Has one achieved theirs more so than the others thus far?

I feel like if Hamas did this to bring the Palestinian issue back to the forefront then they sure as hell succeed (?).

Much depends on how the battle of Gaza City plays itself out. The Lie-DF has made slow but steady gains, but the Hamas fighters have an edge with tunnels and they continuously sprout out of the ground behind enemy lines to ambush and harass the Ashkenazis. It will be difficult to fight house to house but numbers, firepower and technology is on the side of the zionists. It will be about how much pain can be inflicted before the city is taken, in my opinion, as the Isra"el"is have spoken too hard and vowed too much to tuck tail and run, even if this becomes their veritable Vietnam scenario.

If they should fumigate the tunnels and succeed in Gaza city, they may decide to stop right there, but I doubt it. It seems to me they are working through the US and EU to get Egypt and Jordan to take Gazans, and to take the entire enclave. There is a vast oil wealth off the shores of Gaza, and the Isra"el"is know the United States is a declining superpower, and they need to make sure they can survive on their own. Because of this I believe they will do the same to the West Bank, then take the Sinai and try to take bits of Syria, Jordan, and Lebanon in the next fifty years. They need more land and resources, and they are seeking to offer even more incentives for foreign Jews to settle, as well as various other schemes to increase birth rates. The way countries like Jordan and Egypt are run, they see it as open market and are planning this for the future. The fact that Bezalshaytan Smotrich was raving about Greater Israel and the Oded-Yinon Plan is not an anomaly, he is just saying the quiet part out loud. Zionism is expansionist at this stage.

I think it will be a tough battle for them, but many armies have this problem, especially conscript armies. For example, in 2022 for at least 8 months the Russian Army underperformed. It has only been in the last half year or so that they adapted, purged the rot, and increased their morale. Now they are on the verge of winning and dealing a death blow to the Nazis. I believe the Lie-DF will be clapped hard for the first few months, and eventually will get itself together, unless HezbAllah opens a front in the north, which may bring upon everyone a regional war scenario- if that is the case, who knows what will happen.

If the Ashkenaz-ra"el"i entity wins, it's likely that there will be some sort of global humanitarian effort to rehome Palestinians in surrounding countries or even developed countries, depending on skills and education. If they lose, expect more of the same, but a strengthened hand for the Resistance Axis and a decline of people willing to settle in Isra"el".