Chat SAMOSA
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Hopefully China's AI is has better sense than Sawnwy-s absent intelligence.
India's military no match for China's AI-backed war machines, opines expert
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SIPRA
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Yes, it is. There are 10 Avatars of god Vishnu, according to Hindu mythology.
araz
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I dont think there will ever be war between India and China unless the other party has been critically injured in some other battle. If we look at the general behaviour of the Chinese as well as Indians there are lots of similarities and lots of common objectives. Both are essentially trading nations who will concentrate on building trade relations rather than war. Looking at Indian ventures into Pakistan they have never acted where there has been a risk of defeat (barring the major miscalculation by Indians on the last occasion.
As the US control weakens it makes sense for India to resolve its differences with China leveraging the Russians and possibly even Pakistan at the expense of an amicable settlement of the Kashmir issue.
The consequent trading block will comprise more than half the worl population and half the manufacturing base. This would be a win win situation for all parties concerned.
War with China will harm Indian interests and will be avoided by both sides. It suits China as well to resolve its differences and enter into trade agreements for mutial benefits. The movement will cause exponential expansion of the trading block which will shift the pivot of development back towards the East.
I know I will be criticized by Pakistani posters but the fact remains there is more likelihood of Peace with the pivot moving back east wards as the consequent economic uplift will result in ironing of minor differences with a bit of give and take.
A
SecularNationalist
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Tell us something we don't know. There is no comparison between the two.
Sensible comment.
You do not outmatch Pakistan. It's the quality which overall matters not the quantity. You only have the quantitative advantage.
Sharma Ji
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I wasn't boasting, but you seem to be boasting right now.
Go compare the naval might of our respective mulks... and therein lies your answer.
SecularNationalist
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Yeah your navy is superior no doubt by all means but the same doesn't goes for the airforce and army.
And in indo Pak war navy doesn't play a big role. We just have a small Arabian sea coast to protect.
The BrOkEn HeArT
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Don't get influenced by some congressi chamcha like Swaney. All he is doing promote his book in Pakistan and china.
You should research on mountain war fare before reaching any conclusion. Chinese have numbers bcz they have to defend SCS also if they goes on war with India. They have to defend many choke points in oceans where Indian navy is much stronger.
So they have to keep everything high in numbers.
The winner in India and China war will be decided on who attack first. Attack first and win war.
Black Tornado
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Just like Pelosi was no match
He wasn't discharged Dis- honourably, that's a lie that has been propagated against him. He served well in poona horse and was even Adjutant at one time for 2 or so years. An appointment given only to most disciplined and upright.this guy is very OTT though, comes off very political hacky (probably is)
and he got thrown out the Army, dishonorable discharge something.. didn't someone mention just the other day here ? so maybe he has an axe to grind.. at any rate, probably good for us if our neighbours take his word as 'gospel truth' as a baseline to plan and plot against us. lol
low level expendable asset.. jo karna hai kro iskay saath..
He took VRS to focus on his second/next passion writing . I met this guy when he came for a lecture on Falklands war held in Habibullah hall NDA 2001. Total OG officer, no bulshit, no distractions at all.
Although I disagree with that 10day timeline, it will take 4-6 weeks min for china to overwhelm northern air defense alone.
Then they can bypass or flank the mountain defense corps littered all around in India locally.
vishwambhar
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Great post bro....
Man trying to speak in Robotic voice! Very cool.
Anyway, none of the tech development programs are taking off without the "Nerd recruitment programs" Within indian army in officer as well as OR levels.
It's easy to teach someone (even educated) on how to click my computer icon and what all it can perform etc, but to fathom how to get to "(my computer/this pc)" if the icon gets deleted/becomes non functional, is not easily for most indians, let alone recruits who joined just because they had a 10th pass marksheet and could run 1600 in certain time frame.
Technology is coming in thick and fast in all arms, basic education level needs to improve through the country
Educated society makes a stronger army
The brain drain is the key source of man power in building AI divisions within the army. If an key individual or groups of individuals are lost in case war than it is very significant to replace them with equal or par level to fill in those ranks within 24 hours. This is where backups are required.
vishwambhar
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Bro I never take that sold out Sawaney seriously... If you read my previous last year or 2 years back posts I used to laugh on him and today also my opinion is not changed on him...
But not because of Sawaney but its a fact that gap between China and India is too big... be militarily or economically.... As of now they can be little vulnerable on border because of natural barrier like Himalaya and due to most of the heights under our control or they are vulnerable on IOR, Malacca sea routs but the way they are adding up those ACs, Type 55s, SSNs in near future they will actually be able to come and beat anyone who challenges their path.....
sometimes I wonder how would be our situation if our borders with China were similar to the borders with Pakistan today or maritime boundaries too were similar to that of Pakistan..... In this case I can't even imagine a full blown war with China..... Our defense procurements are also slower even than the walk of a tortoise..... So future looks quite scary to me with China....
beijingwalker
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China is preparing for a full-spectrum AI war. India is still 15 years behind
The need of the hour is to analyse China’s capabilities for 'informationised and intelligentised' warfare and bridge the gap.
LT GEN H S PANAG (RETD)25 August, 2022 11:32 am IST
In his new book The Last War: How AI Will Shape India’s Final Showdown With China, Pravin Sawhney, the editor of FORCE magazine, disquietingly forebodes a grim scenario for 2024: “If India and China were to fight a war in the near future, India faces the prospect of losing the war within 10 days. China could take Arunachal Pradesh and Ladakh with a minimum loss of life, and there is very little that India could do about it.” Is it the imagination of a defence analyst running wild? Far from it — such scenarios have been predicted by other analysts too.
A US military blog, Mad Scientist, which looks at the future of warfare, visualised a similar scenario for 2035 in February 2020, wherein China, in collusion with Pakistan, defeats India in Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh. At the tactical level, in the early days of the crisis in Eastern Ladakh, I examined China’s high-technology attack with its existing capabilities for which, also, the Indian Army is ill-prepared.
Of course, the above doomsday predictions come with a caveat of how fast the Indian military can reform itself. My only disagreement is with Pravin’s timelines. In my view, the capabilities of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) as visualised by him will fructify in a decade and a full-spectrum AI-driven war capability will take another decade.
Be that as it may, the need of the hour is to analyse China’s capabilities for “informationised and intelligentised” warfare, carry out an ethical assessment of our own capabilities, and reform to bridge the gap.
China’s ‘informationised and intelligentised’ warfare
Empirically, there is a 50-year cycle of radical changes in warfare with respect to military technology, force structure, and doctrines. After World War II, the US demonstrated the next cycle in Gulf War I — Airland Battle with Precision Guided Munitions (PGMs), cyber, electronic and space warfare, and advanced versions of weapon platforms. The tactical battle, glamourised by close combat, was relegated to a ‘walk in/walk over’ to control the battle space shaped by PGMs and electronic warfare. An advanced version of this warfare is currently in vogue. The world is now on the cusp of the next cycle of warfare, which will be dominated by AI. While the technology is likely to fully fructify by 2040-50, its early manifestations are likely to be seen in a decade.China was a slightly refined World War II military up till 1991. It adapted to the next cycle of warfare, almost equivalent to the US, in 20 years and is now moving forward at a rapid rate to adopt AI-driven warfare. “Informationised and intelligentised” are not mere Chinese pinglish words, but in Mandarin, these have a deeper meaning. China’s national security strategy has traditionally been given out as ‘Military Strategic Guidelines’ by the Central Military Commission (CMC), which are classified. However, some details are invariably given out in Defense White Papers, which are in the public domain. The word ‘informationisation’ first appeared in the 2004 Defence White Paper: “Winning local wars under conditions of informationisation.” This strategic concept was further modified in the 2015 White Paper: “Winning informationised local wars.”
Informationised warfare added three new domains — cyber, electromagnetic and space — to the traditional (land, air and sea) domains. The focus was on information domination — deny information to the enemy for the command, control and use of weapons, and fully exploit it yourself. This implied rendering the adversaries’ command and control and weapon systems — which depend on cyber, electromagnetic and satellite data/communications in all domains — ineffective by systems destruction, leaving its own military free to use the same with impunity.
China’s 2019 White Paper gave birth to the term “intelligentised warfare”: “Driven by the new round of technological and industrial revolution, the application of cutting-edge technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), quantum information, big data, cloud computing and the Internet of Things is gathering pace in the military field. International military competition is undergoing historic changes. New and high-tech military technologies based on IT are developing rapidly. There is a prevailing trend to develop long-range precision, intelligent, stealthy or unmanned weaponry and equipment. War is evolving in form towards informationised warfare, and intelligent warfare is on the horizon.”
Intelligentised warfare focuses on full-spectrum exploitation of AI in all facets of military activity, including intelligent weapons/platforms, bots and autonomous weapon systems, and robotic soldiers with technical support from intelligent networks, cloud, big data and Internet of Military Things. The word ‘intelligent’ here implies that the military machines will have a mind of their own in application.
China will now wage its informationised and intelligentised war in seven domains — air, land, sea, outer space, cyber, electromagnetic spectrum, and near space or hypersonic (between 20 to 100 km, beyond which outer space begins).
China’s reforms for informationised and intelligentised warfare are well on course. In the last 10 years, President Xi Jinping has given military reforms greater impetus to fulfil his ‘China Dream’— a “powerful and prosperous” nation that would acquire “great power status by 2049”. In 2015, he announced comprehensive reforms to shape the transformation of the PLA. Seven military regions were transformed into five tri-Service theatre commands. More importantly, three new Services were created — PLA Ground Force, PLA Rocket Force, and PLA Strategic Support Force. The Strategic Support Force encompasses sub-domains of electronic, cyber, and psychological warfare, strategic deception, and communication/electronics aspects of space warfare. PLA’s Rocket Force has the largest inventory of all types of surface-to-surface missiles in the world. It is meant to destroy the adversary’s static command and control headquarters, air bases/aircraft on the ground, fuel dumps, ammunition depots and road/rail bridges. All modern armies, including India’s, have such missile capabilities, but it is the quality and huge inventory of China’s missiles that is frightening.
Timelines for military reforms have been compressed with rapid progress. Mechanisation with significant informationisation was to be completed by 2020. Integrated development of mechanisation, informationisation and intelligentisation is to be accelerated by 2027 (100 years of PLA). Comprehensively, advanced modernisation of national defence is to be achieved by 2035. And full transformation of the PLA into a world-class force by 2049 (100 years of People’s Republic of China).
India needs time, political will, and military reforms
Today, the Indian military is capable of fighting a poor man’s version of America’s Airland Battle seen in the Gulf Wars, reforms for which had begun in the mid-1980s and were completed by the mid-2000s. At this stage, our capabilities were at par with China. Unfortunately, since then, the reform process has been stagnant. We have not carried out a formal strategic review nor do we have a formal national security strategy from which should flow out capability development strategy to fight the high technology wars of the 21st century.Optimistically, we say that we are just a decade behind China in military capability, but only in land, air and sea domains of war. In the cyber, electromagnetic, space and near space domains, we are nearly 15 years behind. How else can we explain being surprised in Eastern Ladakh? China has already set goals for full-spectrum military exploitation of AI by 2027 and 2035, and we are busy touting the most fundamental of innovations as military exploitation of AI.
Our situation today is somewhat similar to the one prevailing from 1959 to 1962. War was on the horizon. We had the military capability to stalemate China but with no border infrastructure to sustain it, resulting in a catastrophic defeat. Today, we have a reasonable border infrastructure but have been left far behind in the cyber, electromagnetic and space domains of war which in conjunction with AI will decide the outcome of future wars. We are preparing for the last war and China for the future one.
India must bite the bullet and use diplomacy to gain the decade that we need to stalemate — if not win against — China.
The fantasy of a two-front war needs to be given up. Counter-insurgency operations must be taken over by the Central Reserve Police Force. It has to be a ‘whole-of-nation’ approach. Impose a defence cess to make our defence budget equivalent to China. A politically owned and supervised military reform process must be put in place with clear timelines. Put a caveat of the transfer of high-end military technology on our relationship with our allies. US military prowess will deter China in the Indo-Pacific, but India will bear the brunt in the Himalayas.
I have absolutely no doubt that we can stalemate China, provided we have the political and military will to reform in next ten years. Military reforms undertaken by Ukraine with effect from 2014 to stalemate Russia in 2022 is a classic example.
China is preparing for a full-spectrum AI war. India is still 15 years behind
The need of the hour is to analyse China’s capabilities for 'informationised and intelligentised' warfare and bridge the gap.
theprint.in
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