Deluded Europe can’t see that it’s finished

[beijingwalker]

Deluded Europe can’t see that it’s finished​

September 27, 2023

https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2023/09/27/gerad-araud-deluded-europe-cant-see-that-its-finished/#
We Europeans are still convinced of the centrality of our small continent not only to the history of mankind but to shaping the world today. We lecture everyone else based on values that we firmly believe are universal. We think of ourselves as noble, powerful and well intentioned. But the period of true European power was really just a historical blip, writes Gerard Araud is a former French ambassador to the United States at London ‘The Telegraph’.

Yes, Europeans dominated the world between 1815 and 1945, and from then until today we have stood just behind the US. But that was only two centuries: a comma in the history of the world. Until 1650, the GDP of India and, until 1750, the GDP of China were probably larger than any country in Europe.

So, in New Delhi and Beijing, we were seen as the upstarts during our period of dominance, and the economic rebalancing underway over the past few decades between Europe and Asia is viewed as merely a return to the long-term historical norm. The upstarts are being put back in their place.

It is no surprise that, in 2016, Barack Obama in an interview with The Atlantic seemed to believe that the future of humankind would be decided between New Delhi, Beijing and Los Angeles.

Indeed, when I served as France’s ambassador to Washington, I noticed the extent to which our supposed heirs viewed us instead with a mixture of indifference, fatigue and neglect. We were the old aunt whose rambling utterances were more or less gently ignored.

For the US, the potential growth but also the main challenges are in Asia, so it is only logical for Washington to pivot towards that continent. There can be no confusion on this. For the US, Russia is a regional power, a pain but not the centre of their attention. They want to put an end to the war in Ukraine as soon as possible to face the real threat: China.

Are we Europeans able to prove that we still matter, that we are not just some peripheral touristic destination?
I doubt it, and for a very particular reason. As a Frenchman who has seen his country, the China of Europe in 1815, progressively lose its power in parallel with its demographic decline, I firmly believe that demography is destiny.

On this basis, Europe is facing an unprecedented situation. Its total population is projected to fall by 5pc between 2010 and 2050, but by 17pc among 25 to 64 year-olds. The populations of Hungary, the Baltic States, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Portugal, Italy and Greece are already declining, while Germany’s is plateauing before a predictable decrease. The median age of Europeans is 42 years compared with 38 in the US. It is increasing on average by 0.2 years per annum.

What does it mean? Less demand and therefore less growth; and less dynamic societies. In more concrete terms, it entails a threat to the ‘’European model’’, which is based on an uneasy compromise between a welfare state and economic reality.

Old age means ever-growing spending on health and personal assistance. The demographic crisis will, in turn, tear apart our societies between the working-aged and the retired in a context in which the latter enjoy a standard of living the former often can’t ever hope to reach.

More acutely, Europeans will fight over the question of immigration. The experts are very clear in their assessment: given the weak effectiveness of “natalist” policies designed to increase birth rates, there is no alternative to overcoming demographic decline in Europe other than immigration.

In today’s Europe, it is a euphemism to say that this solution won’t be generally welcomed. When a French minister recently hinted that we may have to accept a limited number of immigrants to deal with shortages of personnel in some sectors, there was such an outcry that he immediately backpedalled.

The UK left the EU largely to stop immigration even from European countries. In 2015, Germany might have opened its borders to more than one million immigrants from the Middle East, but this was in response to a humanitarian emergency.

In this context, emigration from Europe is especially unwelcome. We are losing young, highly educated individuals who go mainly to the US, where they will have better opportunities, be it in the research, academic or the private sectors.

When travelling in America, everywhere I went I met European researchers, surgeons, teachers and entrepreneurs. It was difficult not to feel sadness that these young people, who our countries had educated at a high cost, were instead enriching the US.

Don’t say my pessimism is only the usual French moaning; don’t add that British and French demographics are not that bad (although that is true).

Every signal is pointing towards an inward-looking Europe. Un continent de vieux. The future of humankind will be definitely decided elsewhere.

Gerad Araud: Deluded Europe can’t see that it’s finished - Modern Diplomacy

We Europeans are still convinced of the centrality of our small continent not only to the history of mankind but to shaping the world today

moderndiplomacy.eu

 

[OIO]

Europe will go through a painful period of time before it can see the world and itself correctly.

 

[Haldorss]

When travelling in America, everywhere I went I met European researchers, surgeons, teachers and entrepreneurs. It was difficult not to feel sadness that these young people, who our countries had educated at a high cost, were instead enriching the US.

This is because European elites are like British elites and scorn payment to high Iq competitors. So all the useful Europeans are going to USA, where they pay them. Also the French writer should have mentioned French disloyalty to Europe whenever it goes to USA for diplomacy.

The British have always been hostile to the continent and even in this article he pretends UK is European.

 

[A Voice of Reason]

Deluded Europe can’t see that it’s finished​

September 27, 2023

https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2023/09/27/gerad-araud-deluded-europe-cant-see-that-its-finished/#
We Europeans are still convinced of the centrality of our small continent not only to the history of mankind but to shaping the world today. We lecture everyone else based on values that we firmly believe are universal. We think of ourselves as noble, powerful and well intentioned. But the period of true European power was really just a historical blip, writes Gerard Araud is a former French ambassador to the United States at London ‘The Telegraph’.

Yes, Europeans dominated the world between 1815 and 1945, and from then until today we have stood just behind the US. But that was only two centuries: a comma in the history of the world. Until 1650, the GDP of India and, until 1750, the GDP of China were probably larger than any country in Europe.

So, in New Delhi and Beijing, we were seen as the upstarts during our period of dominance, and the economic rebalancing underway over the past few decades between Europe and Asia is viewed as merely a return to the long-term historical norm. The upstarts are being put back in their place.

It is no surprise that, in 2016, Barack Obama in an interview with The Atlantic seemed to believe that the future of humankind would be decided between New Delhi, Beijing and Los Angeles.

Indeed, when I served as France’s ambassador to Washington, I noticed the extent to which our supposed heirs viewed us instead with a mixture of indifference, fatigue and neglect. We were the old aunt whose rambling utterances were more or less gently ignored.

For the US, the potential growth but also the main challenges are in Asia, so it is only logical for Washington to pivot towards that continent. There can be no confusion on this. For the US, Russia is a regional power, a pain but not the centre of their attention. They want to put an end to the war in Ukraine as soon as possible to face the real threat: China.

Are we Europeans able to prove that we still matter, that we are not just some peripheral touristic destination?
I doubt it, and for a very particular reason. As a Frenchman who has seen his country, the China of Europe in 1815, progressively lose its power in parallel with its demographic decline, I firmly believe that demography is destiny.

On this basis, Europe is facing an unprecedented situation. Its total population is projected to fall by 5pc between 2010 and 2050, but by 17pc among 25 to 64 year-olds. The populations of Hungary, the Baltic States, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Portugal, Italy and Greece are already declining, while Germany’s is plateauing before a predictable decrease. The median age of Europeans is 42 years compared with 38 in the US. It is increasing on average by 0.2 years per annum.

What does it mean? Less demand and therefore less growth; and less dynamic societies. In more concrete terms, it entails a threat to the ‘’European model’’, which is based on an uneasy compromise between a welfare state and economic reality.

Old age means ever-growing spending on health and personal assistance. The demographic crisis will, in turn, tear apart our societies between the working-aged and the retired in a context in which the latter enjoy a standard of living the former often can’t ever hope to reach.

More acutely, Europeans will fight over the question of immigration. The experts are very clear in their assessment: given the weak effectiveness of “natalist” policies designed to increase birth rates, there is no alternative to overcoming demographic decline in Europe other than immigration.

In today’s Europe, it is a euphemism to say that this solution won’t be generally welcomed. When a French minister recently hinted that we may have to accept a limited number of immigrants to deal with shortages of personnel in some sectors, there was such an outcry that he immediately backpedalled.

The UK left the EU largely to stop immigration even from European countries. In 2015, Germany might have opened its borders to more than one million immigrants from the Middle East, but this was in response to a humanitarian emergency.

In this context, emigration from Europe is especially unwelcome. We are losing young, highly educated individuals who go mainly to the US, where they will have better opportunities, be it in the research, academic or the private sectors.

When travelling in America, everywhere I went I met European researchers, surgeons, teachers and entrepreneurs. It was difficult not to feel sadness that these young people, who our countries had educated at a high cost, were instead enriching the US.

Don’t say my pessimism is only the usual French moaning; don’t add that British and French demographics are not that bad (although that is true).

Every signal is pointing towards an inward-looking Europe. Un continent de vieux. The future of humankind will be definitely decided elsewhere.

Gerad Araud: Deluded Europe can’t see that it’s finished - Modern Diplomacy

We Europeans are still convinced of the centrality of our small continent not only to the history of mankind but to shaping the world today

moderndiplomacy.eu

So... if Europe is circling the drain demographically and is losing relevance, may I enquire why has China poured trillions into the BRI for the main purpose of efficiently pouring trade from it to Europe?
Why has India and the Middle East made such a huge deal of a plan to, you guessed it, have a trade corridor to Europe?

The truth is that while Europe is on a downward trajectory demographically it is STILL a migrant destination. In addition much of South and S.E Asia are either much further along the demographic transition than even Europe or are only a decade or two behind them. Just instance if anyone thinks that China is not going to have absolutely enormous, existential, demographic pain over the next 2 generations is fooling themselves or a bot.

If anything Europe, and by that I mean Western Europe, is going to have a little less pain (not no pain) than many parts of Asia in the coming storm. You see amongst other things Europe became rich before it grew old. Many other demographically imploding (or soon to be) countries have not.

 

[Haldorss]

If anything Europe, and by that I mean Western Europe, is going to have a little less pain (not no pain) than many parts of Asia in the coming storm. You see amongst other things Europe became rich before it grew old. Many other demographically imploding (or soon to be) countries have not.

There's a Stockton-OceanGate joke here. Stockton spurned older engineers for younger ones in building the submersible full of rich, old billionaires. As you know it also imploded. Europeans constituted only 1 of the 5, so got a little less pain, than the asians 2

 

[aziqbal]

ok Chinaman please enlighten the rest of the World how you locked up over 1 million Ughurs

West has some bad points but it still gives more freedom of religion than any other nations in the World specially the UK

I wonder why everyone want to come here if its really that bad

 

[etylo]

ok Chinaman please enlighten the rest of the World how you locked up over 1 million Ughurs

West has some bad points but it still gives more freedom of religion than any other nations in the World specially the UK

I wonder why everyone want to come here if its really that bad

Shut up your foul mouth of shit, pig.

 

[FourMikeEcho]

Europe is no more on a downward demographic trajectory than China. All countries advance to a point that this occurs. In China the decline in population is underway.

As for India: if half the people can spend a week in India without staying at a 4 star hotel to survive, then India may have a chance to displace. When 20 companies in India represent 80% of the profits, that means a few people are getting rich but the mass economic improvement is not taking place.

Regardless, it is good for a European to do some introspection. Their emphasis on social welfare is going to be their doom. Pakistan’s fighter fleet is 2x size of RAFs. They are a fraction of the power they used to be because money going to social welfare.

 

[aziqbal]

Shut up your foul mouth of shit, pig.

reported

 

[A Voice of Reason]

Europe is no more on a downward demographic trajectory than China. All countries advance to a point that this occurs. In China the decline in population is underway.

As for India: if half the people can spend a week in India without staying at a 4 star hotel to survive, then India may have a chance to displace. When 20 companies in India represent 80% of the profits, that means a few people are getting rich but the mass economic improvement is not taking place.

Regardless, it is good for a European to do some introspection. Their emphasis on social welfare is going to be their doom. Pakistan’s fighter fleet is 2x size of RAFs. They are a fraction of the power they used to be because money going to social welfare.

Agreed but actually China is a lot worse off.

While demographic data from China is notoriously suspect, subject to revision and taken with an ocean of salt, its TFR is either 1.3 (WSJ), 1.18 (Pew Research) or even below 1.09 (Reuters).

This means that compared to almost all of Europe, China has (even) much, much worse demographics.

Total fertility rate - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

And don't forget that China doesn't accept many immigrants at all - in percentage terms - while Europe generally has been an immigrant destination.

This and more (I won't bore you with a discussion of industrial/urbanization transition terminal period speed) basically means their slide off the demographic cliff is happening so much faster.

BTW you might want to insert an "almost all" into "All countries advance to a point that this occurs." It is almost but not quite universal.

 

[etylo]

reported

Thick face, go report your foul mouth first in insulting others.

 

[beijingwalker]

ok Chinaman please enlighten the rest of the World how you locked up over 1 million Ughurs

Cause you are retarded, this is why you lost that so called "PDF analyst" title, cause everyone noticed your problem.

 

[khansaheeb]

Yes, what we call a natural correction and economic rebalance and equilibrium.

 

[Haldorss]

ok Chinaman please enlighten the rest of the World how you locked up over 1 million Ughurs

West has some bad points but it still gives more freedom of religion than any other nations in the World specially the UK

I wonder why everyone want to come here if its really that bad

China can't afford to allow western puppets to do damage who have extreme animus against China.

In Russia the religious have a foreign agent exemption, maybe it's to allow west to monitor Chinese in Russia, something China should check.

 

[aziqbal]

Cause you are retarded, this is why you lost that so called "PDF analyst" title, cause everyone noticed your problem.

I know badges are a sign of honor in China but in the West we rather live free and say openly what we want than to be silenced