CPEC - stalled and lost momentum?

[Indus Pakistan]

@TaiShang For the umpteenth time the issue I see with CPEC is not debt trap - which is just rubbish peddled by Indians and others who have a issue with China. To my mind the problem is the corridor hsas NOT been built. No even close to it. CPEC was about a China Pakistan Economic CORRIDOR. Whilst many projects have been built here and there titled CPEC but the core of CPEC. The establishing of a port at Gwadar and then a infa link. Roads/rail lining Gwadar along the north-south axis thus opening a new trade route and creating a new economic linkages has not taken place.

If you look at the map below only Gwadar port, few miles of A-road going north, a 150 mile motorway right at the norh section of the corridor are anywhere near compoletion. The huge distance inbetween of about 600 miles has nothing. Thus leaving Gwadar effectively with no corridor leading to and my description of that port being a beached whale at the present.

t's already stalled

Stop fcukin bringing in partisan politics you idiot. The issue here is far bigger than any government in Pakistan. It has to do with China and how it runs it's geo-politics, how Pakistan fits in that and the nature of Pakistan culture,socio-political order.

 

[Ghost Hobbit]

Can you provide a link detailing the scope of the project?

I'm not going to take your word for it. I like to independently verify information that comes from Indians or India.

nope. No evidence at all.

 

[Indos]

It's the one man one vote system, make all interest groups sucking blood of Pakistan.

Infrastructure is just infrastructure. Road, railway, power stations, power grid, ports are tools, it's the man who using the tools made life meaningful and different.

There was no country on earth got prosperous by adopting western political system.

• Korea is set up , hijacked, controlled and funded by US. Korea actually is a cooperation Samsung covered by a country.

The strategy of Korea is to let the economy depends on 4-5 Conglomerations. Give them huge incentive so they can grow fast and build capital that is enough to make sophisticated factory. They get protection as well since they are being built before WTO exist.

Today Pakistan has FTA with China even before their domestic industry mature and strong, so Pakistan cannot adopt Korea economic development strategy. I would suggest Pakistan to scrap FTA and also scrap CPEC. The power plan can still be continued but the road and train project should not. If China want to invest in Pakistan for manufacturing, just invest now, no need to wait the motorway and train route project.

There is reason of why Indonesia doesnt want to become part of ASEAN road connection project since it will just smooth the goods coming from ASEAN countries to enter Indonesia market.

 

[Indus Pakistan]

Today Pakistan

Listen mister the problem with you guys is you know squat all about Pakistan and then you make flawed conclusions. Let me give you a speed intro.

Countries like Indonesia and Malaysia are East Asian equivalents of Oily Arabs. Your literally drowning in natural resources. Those natural resources are huge which then tie you in the global trading system. from that base you can build up because their is sufficient income/capital available to the governments. Pakistan has almost no resources given it's population size and mostly depends on ex-pat foreign remittances thus seriously limiting state's ability to chart a way out.

Malay/Indonesia economies got their jump start from -

• oil
• coal
• gold
• gas
• rubber
• palm oil

 

[Indus Pakistan]

Take out the natural resources you have, you guys would be dancing with Sub-Saharan Africans. Indonesia produces more oil than UAE, Oman, Bahrain or Qatar.

 

[Death Professor]

Let us just think from the POV of a exporter in Sialkot. Do you think you will send your products by truck or rail to Karachi and then have them trucked another 200 miles along the Makran Highway to Gwadar? You would be pretty dumb to do that. As you could easily use Port Qasim or Port Karachi. Why would you add another 200 miles of road and all the costs and time that would imply. For sake of using Gwadar? That is ridicalous.

The other possibilty is use the Quetta-Gwadar route or the alignment of the Western Corridior. The problem is the roads are terrible and law/order is not ideal. Why not just use the excellant M2-M3-M4-M5 motorways to Karach Port? So I am afraid as long as the Western Corridor does not recieve at least $25 billion to build proper motorway followed by proper security Gwadar will remain a beached whale and a white elephant with some ships forced to land there just for photo-ops.

Why the Chinese have not continued with CPEC with the gusto they showed at the outset is another subject we need to look at. But as thing stand CPEC has failed to bring transformation to Pakistan's economy. It has however brought some short term benefits. But sadly not the revolution we all hoped it would bring in.

The main issue, I see is that it would probably need more than 25 B$ to build the western corridor. All the infrastructure is on the eastern side along Indus river having it mostly populated. It wouldn't make sense to invest in Western route from zero, it would take too much time and money. The RoI would come after a long time, when people would "love" to move from their home provinces and live/invest in Baluchistan. Economic zones, infrastructure(electricity, water, land, etc), there is already a base and potential on the eastern side, why invest deeply into a western route so much when you can make eastern route better, much cheaper? Sure your thinking about what happens 70-100 years from now, and I am definitely with you on that, western corridor needs to be built but I don't think this is the need of the hour. And about your question about why would a business man choose Gwadar over Karachi, answer is time. I don't know the current status but these ports will definitely get congested over time. For western route, the base has to be Gwadar, Gwadar has to become a power house and it would force development from south to north towards central Baluchistan rather than from North to South into Baluchistan.

Listen mister the problem with you guys is you know squat all about Pakistan and then you make flawed conclusions. Let me give you a speed intro.

Countries like Indonesia and Malaysia are East Asian equivalents of Oily Arabs. Your literally drowning in natural resources. Those natural resources are huge which then tie you in the global trading system. from that base you can build up because their is sufficient income/capital available to the governments. Pakistan has almost no resources given it's population size and mostly depends on ex-pat foreign remittances thus seriously limiting state's ability to chart a way out.

Malay/Indonesia economies got their jump start from -

• oil
• coal
• gold
• gas
• rubber
• palm oil

View attachment 713467

Well to be fair we had/have huge coal reserves, we just procrastinated over them. Meanwhile China and India made power plants and burned them as much as they could to further their economy. Now that train is gone and there is restrictions on "CHEAP" coal power plants. We could have made use of them while we had the chance, 60's 70's were the right time. Environment friendly coal power plants are expensive.

 

[vi-va]

Listen mister the problem with you guys is you know squat all about Pakistan and then you make flawed conclusions. Let me give you a speed intro.

Countries like Indonesia and Malaysia are East Asian equivalents of Oily Arabs. Your literally drowning in natural resources. Those natural resources are huge which then tie you in the global trading system. from that base you can build up because their is sufficient income/capital available to the governments. Pakistan has almost no resources given it's population size and mostly depends on ex-pat foreign remittances thus seriously limiting state's ability to chart a way out.

Malay/Indonesia economies got their jump start from -

• oil
• coal
• gold
• gas
• rubber
• palm oil

View attachment 713467

Pakistan has man power. Pakistan should leverage man power for labor intensive industry, it will provide more jobs opportunities to ordinary man and women.

Vietnam population 90 millions, export US$267 billion in 2020.
Pakistan population 220 millions, export US$ 23 billions in 2019.

Pakistan should integrate into East/SE Asia supply chain and adopt export driven economy, just like all East/SE Asia countries did.

For export driven economy, Pakistan need Sea Port, more Sea Port, and upgrade existing Sea Port, upgrade and build more railway, connect major cities, along Hindu River. More power stations and connect them all together by power grid. Literally do what China did in past 3 decades.

Let me give you guys an example of Foxconn.

Foxconn employed less than a million employees in China directly. For every single Foxconn assemble factory, there will be hundreds of other factories built, either close to Foxconn, or connect by railway, road within 50 miles. Those factories are not owned by Foxconn, they provide parts, services to Foxconn.

Foxconn provided at least 10 millions jobs directly and indirectly, which means 10 millions families can feed themselves.

Why Foxconn choose China? Incentives. Tax, Water, railway, road, electricity, cable, land, law, labor, government policies, government services, efficiencies.

India has a lot more youth, but not skilled labors. Labors are those who can work under great pressure, disciplined, skillful. India lack of good infrastructure.

That's why most industries stay in China, but not India.

While India propaganda machine running in full speed to slander CPEC, but look at India 2021 budget, more infrastructure to be built, more fund.

@Indus Pakistan

 

[Chakar The Great]

Says who? India is about to open the biggest industrial zone in the world supported with the biggest frieght corridoor in the world and the whole thing took about 8 years. Surely you're not suggesting CEPC is anywhere close to that project in scale or scope?

India is about to do this and that. You guys are "always going" to do something.


So come back to me when you have done anything. You were suppose to be 5trillion dollar economy ?? Super power by 2020 what happen to all of those ridiculous claims ??


CPEC is not merely an economic project, its strategic. Obviously its stupid to expect that Indians would get it, a country where over 1000sq Km are taken over by Chinese and villages are built in Arunachal Pradesh come here and lecture us.




I know it pains India that Pakistan is developing CPEC, from several terrorist attacks on CPEC projects , killing of Chinese engineers, attack on Gwader airport and so on and so forth. If CPEC is disastrous why the entire Indian RAW funding and machinery is trying to sabotage it.
I will create a separate thread on achievements via CPEC so far.

 

[Indos]

Take out the natural resources you have, you guys would be dancing with Sub-Saharan Africans. Indonesia produces more oil than UAE, Oman, Bahrain or Qatar.

Well I dont doubt Allah SWT gifts to Indonesia on natural resources we have. AlhamduliLLAH. It is indeed really important for our economic development, not only during the beginning of our serious economic development since Soeharto period (1967-1998), but even Today we try to benefit from our vast nickle reserve to build EV industry.

Despite so I need to correct your false data since UAE, Qatar, and China oil production is larger than Indonesia and USA is also number one oil biggest producing countries in the world for so long and it remain in first position until Today.

In term of gas, Qatar and China position is much higher than Indonesia and even Egypt produce more gas than Indonesia

USA and China also produce more coal than Indonesia where for China their production difference is huge compared to Indonesia

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Indonesia has become net oil importer since 2003 and the reason we still export crude oil is because we dont have enough oil refinery to process our crude oil. Vietnam, your role model country, in the other hand is still net oil exporting country until Today with huge surplus. Surprise ?

List of countries by net oil exports - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Indos]

Listen mister the problem with you guys is you know squat all about Pakistan and then you make flawed conclusions. Let me give you a speed intro.

Countries like Indonesia and Malaysia are East Asian equivalents of Oily Arabs. Your literally drowning in natural resources. Those natural resources are huge which then tie you in the global trading system. from that base you can build up because their is sufficient income/capital available to the governments. Pakistan has almost no resources given it's population size and mostly depends on ex-pat foreign remittances thus seriously limiting state's ability to chart a way out.

Malay/Indonesia economies got their jump start from -

• oil
• coal
• gold
• gas
• rubber
• palm oil

View attachment 713467

You get 8 years old data from here isnt it ?

Economy of Indonesia - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

This is the newest development. Alhamdulillah there is progress going on.

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Jakarta (ANTARA) - Indonesia’s manufacturing industry recorded US$94.36 billion in exports in January-September this year, contributing 80.5 percent to the country’s total exports for the period.

“It means that our industry sector is still aggressively penetrating the international market amid this difficult time as an impact of the COVID-19 pandemic,” head of the Data and Information Center of the Industry Ministry, R Janu Suryanto, said here on Friday.

Indonesia's manufacturing exports top US$94 bln

Indonesia’s manufacturing industry recorded US$94.36 billion in exports in January-September this year, contributing 80.5 percent to the country’s ...

en.antaranews.com

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Just to correct the data

 

[Indus Pakistan]

You get 8 years old data from here isnt it ?

The point was Indonesia stood up on back of oil, gas, gold, natural resources. That is fact. Of course once you get the boost from natural resources you begin to invest and diversify the economy. Last time I went to UAE I did not see much oil but I did see tourism, banking, media etc all bulit on oil wealth. Got it Indus or Indos?

Amazing thing even countrries 1,000s of miles awy are naming themselves on our geography ..... !!!

 

[Indos]

The point was Indonesia stood up on back of oil, gas, gold, natural resources. That is fact. Of course once you get the boost from natural resources you begin to invest and diversify the economy. Last time I went to UAE I did not see much oil but I did see tourism, banking, media etc all bulit on oil wealth. Got it Indus or Indos?

Yup, pretty much true. I dont doubt that.

Amazing thing even countrries 1,000s of miles awy are naming themselves on our geography ..... !!!

he he. We have connection isnt it ? As I have stated before to you maybe two years ago, our indigenous name is Nusantara.

I think South Korea should be your role model in term of how they can become so industrialized despite having a war and has limited natural resources like oil, gas, coal and others.

 

[Indus Pakistan]

The main issue, I see is that it would probably need more than 25 B$ to build the western corridor. All the infrastructure is on the eastern side along Indus river having it mostly populated. It wouldn't make sense to invest in Western route from zero, it would take too much time and money. The RoI would come after a long time, when people would "love" to move from their home provinces and live/invest in Baluchistan. Economic zones, infrastructure(electricity, water, land, etc), there is already a base and potential on the eastern side

Great post and thank you for actually grappling with the thust of what I said in the opening post. Your reply deserves a detailed response which I will get to later.

 

[Mugen]

Yup, pretty much true. I dont doubt that.


he he. We have connection isnt it ? As I have stated before to you maybe two years ago, our indigenous name is Nusantara.

I think South Korea should be your role model in term of how they can become so industrialized despite having a war and has limited natural resources like oil, gas, coal and others.

South Koreans are intelligent and hard working people, the opposite of Pakistanis.

 

[Indos]

South Koreans are intelligent and hard working people, the opposite of Pakistanis.

I believe if we really implement Islam values we can actually surpass many Non-Muslim nations. There is reason why I put this Quran verse in my PDF profile so me and other Muslim can get inspired of. It is Allah promise and I believe if we put our intention as Jihad, there will be huge help coming from our God.

(8:65) O Prophet! Rouse the believers to fighting. If they be twenty of you who persevere they shall vanquish two hundred; and if there be of you a hundred, they shall vanquish a thousand of those who disbelieve, for they are a people who lack understanding.

Modern war is economy and technology right ? Just like how USSR lost cold war due to economy competition with Anti Communist countries