The_Showstopper
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And who else do we have??
2014 Elections - Grave Implications for India
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And who else do we have??
BLING
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It should had been 10% or more . Now its down to 4% or less ! Just imagine the money India lost due to corruption ? Mind boggling . Congressi will never work for India as they been black mailed by ISI and Chinese with their Black Money . It must be the only reason why Sonia ji , mms ji dont want to act again st Pak or China
Fattyacids
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Corruption has always plagued India, regardless the political party. Sonia and MMS are actually saving the country. If they act against Pak and China, they might win your support, but they will end up losing India.
No consensus in BJP, Advani, Sushma and MM Joshi oppose Narendra Modi as PM candidate - The Times of India
NEW DELHI: L K Advani on Wednesday appeared to be a stumbling block for the BJP in finalising the name of Narendra Modi as its prime ministerial candidate and hectic efforts were underway to convince him to give up his opposition.
BJP president Rajnath Singh had a 30-minute meeting with Advani to persuade him on Modi's candidature but failed to get an assurance, sources said.
His predecessor Nitin Gadkari had met Advani on Tuesday as an emissary of the RSS for the same purpose but reportedly went back empty-handed. Gadkari left for Nagpur, where the RSS headquarters are located, to brief the Sangh leaders on the developments.
There are reports that RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat may meet Modi in Gandhinagar on Thursday to discuss this issue. RSS has categorically said there is no dispute over Modi's name but the timing of the announcement has to be decided by the BJP.
Meanwhile, general secretary (organisation) Ramlal - who is the RSS pointsman in BJP - has been given the task of finding a suitable date before September 19 when the parliamentary board members are in the capital so that a meeting can be held.
Other than Advani, leader of the opposition Sushma Swaraj and Murli Manohar Joshi are also opposed to announcing Modi as the PM candidate before the forthcoming assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Delhi.
"A decision on the issue will be taken by the parliamentary board with as much consensus as possible," BJP spokesperson Sudanshu Trivedi told reporters in reply to a question on whether all members are on board on Modi.
He denied reports that the panel may meet on September 13 and said no formal decision on a date has been taken yet.
Those opposed to Modi, however, maintain that had there been a consensus on his name the parliamentary board would have been called at a short notice.
"Looking for consensus date is a facade. parliamentary board meetings have been called even at a few hours notice," a senior leader said.
NEW DELHI: L K Advani on Wednesday appeared to be a stumbling block for the BJP in finalising the name of Narendra Modi as its prime ministerial candidate and hectic efforts were underway to convince him to give up his opposition.
BJP president Rajnath Singh had a 30-minute meeting with Advani to persuade him on Modi's candidature but failed to get an assurance, sources said.
His predecessor Nitin Gadkari had met Advani on Tuesday as an emissary of the RSS for the same purpose but reportedly went back empty-handed. Gadkari left for Nagpur, where the RSS headquarters are located, to brief the Sangh leaders on the developments.
There are reports that RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat may meet Modi in Gandhinagar on Thursday to discuss this issue. RSS has categorically said there is no dispute over Modi's name but the timing of the announcement has to be decided by the BJP.
Meanwhile, general secretary (organisation) Ramlal - who is the RSS pointsman in BJP - has been given the task of finding a suitable date before September 19 when the parliamentary board members are in the capital so that a meeting can be held.
Other than Advani, leader of the opposition Sushma Swaraj and Murli Manohar Joshi are also opposed to announcing Modi as the PM candidate before the forthcoming assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Delhi.
"A decision on the issue will be taken by the parliamentary board with as much consensus as possible," BJP spokesperson Sudanshu Trivedi told reporters in reply to a question on whether all members are on board on Modi.
He denied reports that the panel may meet on September 13 and said no formal decision on a date has been taken yet.
Those opposed to Modi, however, maintain that had there been a consensus on his name the parliamentary board would have been called at a short notice.
"Looking for consensus date is a facade. parliamentary board meetings have been called even at a few hours notice," a senior leader said.
General Elections 2014: The concerns and sentiments of urban voters - Moneylife
General Elections 2014: The concerns and sentiments of urban voters
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Moneylife Digital Team | 17/09/2013 05:33 PM |
Over 92% of the respondents in a survey of urban people expressed deep dissatisfaction over the current administrative and political system and are looking forward to a fundamental change in the next general elections
India is a few months away from its five-yearly general elections. The outcome of this election will set the pace of Indias future economic growth considering the present regime has led to a sharply declining economy, growing unemployment, high inflation and numerous charges of corruption. High levels of corruption and poor governance would lead Indias 700 million-plus voters seek greater accountability from political candidates and look for those who could forge a change. Kartavya, an organisation which conducts Mumbai level inter-collegiate debate competitions in association with Mumbai University, conducted a survey focussed on what the respondents felt about the current state of the political system in India, what they expect of an ideal prime ministerial candidate and who they think is an ideal candidate for becoming a prime minister, and why.
The survey which was open for over a period of two months, received over 2,500 responses with over 600 offline responses and nearly 1,900 online responses. India continues to face several challenges of poor economic growth, rising inflation and worsening current account deficit. Over 92% of the survey participants mentioned that they were not happy with the current political system.
When asked, which is the single biggest problem with India, more than half the participants replied that corruption is a major concern. As many as 35% of the survey respondents cite poor administration as the single biggest problem. Comparatively, very few are of the opinion that the poor justice system and inflation is the single biggest problem in India. Ultimately, corruption is probably the root cause of all evils.
When it came to rating the current government on corruption, cross border relations, infrastructure and economic development, majority of the participants ratedvery bad. Professor Abhijit A Gosavi, associate professor, Department of Engineering Management and Systems Engineering at Missouri University of Science and Technology, statistically analysed the entire survey. He combined the Poor and Very bad responses into one group and the remaining into another, and termed the other group as acceptable. According to his study, for each of the factorscorruption, cross-border relations, infrastructure, and economic development, a statistically significant majority rates the government poorly, i.e., not acceptable (again politically significant).
It is evident that the respondents are looking for a responsible PM candidate. On being asked as to what are the characteristics they would look for in a PM candidate, majority (77%) of the participants said that they would look for a great administrator who can deliver growth. According to Professor Gosavi, Question 10 has too many options that cannot be combined. For such cases, advanced statistical tools such as regression/ANOVA will be needed. He further says, Roughly speaking, it is clear that a great administrator who can deliver growth is most important to those surveyed.
In probably the most important question of the survey, on who the participants feel, is the best candidate for the post of the PM, as many as 87% of the respondents have picked Narendra Modi, chief minister of Gujarat. The all important question. Although, it will be nice to see if there is any statistical difference between Rahul Gandhi and Arvind Kejriwal, I suspect any tests there will reveal a statistical tie. But since only one person wins an election (even in a parliamentary system), we can combine all the non-Modi responses into one. The intervals are far apart; no question of overlap here even if we take the confidence level to 99%, indicating that Modi is very, very clearly a favourite with the surveyed group beating everyone else hollow, mentioned Professor Gosavi. The list included names of Manmohan Singh, LK Advani, Mayawati, Mulayam Singh Yadav, Mamta Banerjee and J Jayalalithaa.
When asked the reason for selecting their best candidate, majority of the respondents who chose Narendra Modi, mentioned that he is a good administrator and has proven his ability as the chief minister of Gujarat. From the survey it remains unresolved whether Modi is a polarising figure or not. According to the professor, If we combine the No and Cant say, the No and Cant say are winning statistically. I also analyzed this question again as 13A, leaving out those who said cant say (is there really anyone who doesnt have an opinion on him either way?!). That reveals a statistical tie! So it looks like it is hard to give a clear-cut answer to this question.
In two separate questions when asked whether Modi is an able administrator and whether the Gujarat model will work on a pan-India basis. A very significant proportion thinks he is an able administrator and a significant majority believes the model will work pan India.
Similarly in questions on whether the media targets Modi in an unfair manner and whether the Godhra riots have been given more media coverage than other riots in India here again, a significant margin feels he is indeed unfairly targeted.
On asked whether they would vote in the upcoming general elections, as many as 90% of the respondents replied that they will vote in the general elections of 2014. This is significantly high considering that just a little over half the participants had voted in the 2009 general elections. On asking the reason why one did not participate in the 2009 general elections, 62.5% of the respondents mentioned that they did not have a voters card. According to Mr Gosavi, This (question) was not easy to analyze given our methodology. But I tried to combine all the responses other than Dont have a voter card in my city to imply that all others do have a voter card. The result shows that a significant majority do NOT have voter cards, and perhaps this issue needs to be resolved?
With the Indian political scenario is becoming increasingly chaotic by the day, chances are we may be headed for early general elections. What happens in these elections will matter a lot. In this survey, majority of the participants were from in and around Mumbai and other urban areas. While almost 46% of the votes were cast by women in the 2009 general elections, just about 15% of the survey respondents were women. It is clear that even net savvy women on social media are neither interested in politics or personal finance issues. As we mentioned in our Cover Story on bank charges, (Read: Wake Up to Your Bank Charges) a massive 92% of the 1,500+ respondents to a survey o banking charges were men. This is rather shocking and indicates low financial literacy and apathy even among educated women, since almost everyone has at least one bank account.
General Elections 2014: The concerns and sentiments of urban voters
0 Comments, Be the first to comment
+ COMMENT
Moneylife Digital Team | 17/09/2013 05:33 PM |
Over 92% of the respondents in a survey of urban people expressed deep dissatisfaction over the current administrative and political system and are looking forward to a fundamental change in the next general elections
India is a few months away from its five-yearly general elections. The outcome of this election will set the pace of Indias future economic growth considering the present regime has led to a sharply declining economy, growing unemployment, high inflation and numerous charges of corruption. High levels of corruption and poor governance would lead Indias 700 million-plus voters seek greater accountability from political candidates and look for those who could forge a change. Kartavya, an organisation which conducts Mumbai level inter-collegiate debate competitions in association with Mumbai University, conducted a survey focussed on what the respondents felt about the current state of the political system in India, what they expect of an ideal prime ministerial candidate and who they think is an ideal candidate for becoming a prime minister, and why.
The survey which was open for over a period of two months, received over 2,500 responses with over 600 offline responses and nearly 1,900 online responses. India continues to face several challenges of poor economic growth, rising inflation and worsening current account deficit. Over 92% of the survey participants mentioned that they were not happy with the current political system.
When asked, which is the single biggest problem with India, more than half the participants replied that corruption is a major concern. As many as 35% of the survey respondents cite poor administration as the single biggest problem. Comparatively, very few are of the opinion that the poor justice system and inflation is the single biggest problem in India. Ultimately, corruption is probably the root cause of all evils.
When it came to rating the current government on corruption, cross border relations, infrastructure and economic development, majority of the participants ratedvery bad. Professor Abhijit A Gosavi, associate professor, Department of Engineering Management and Systems Engineering at Missouri University of Science and Technology, statistically analysed the entire survey. He combined the Poor and Very bad responses into one group and the remaining into another, and termed the other group as acceptable. According to his study, for each of the factorscorruption, cross-border relations, infrastructure, and economic development, a statistically significant majority rates the government poorly, i.e., not acceptable (again politically significant).
It is evident that the respondents are looking for a responsible PM candidate. On being asked as to what are the characteristics they would look for in a PM candidate, majority (77%) of the participants said that they would look for a great administrator who can deliver growth. According to Professor Gosavi, Question 10 has too many options that cannot be combined. For such cases, advanced statistical tools such as regression/ANOVA will be needed. He further says, Roughly speaking, it is clear that a great administrator who can deliver growth is most important to those surveyed.
In probably the most important question of the survey, on who the participants feel, is the best candidate for the post of the PM, as many as 87% of the respondents have picked Narendra Modi, chief minister of Gujarat. The all important question. Although, it will be nice to see if there is any statistical difference between Rahul Gandhi and Arvind Kejriwal, I suspect any tests there will reveal a statistical tie. But since only one person wins an election (even in a parliamentary system), we can combine all the non-Modi responses into one. The intervals are far apart; no question of overlap here even if we take the confidence level to 99%, indicating that Modi is very, very clearly a favourite with the surveyed group beating everyone else hollow, mentioned Professor Gosavi. The list included names of Manmohan Singh, LK Advani, Mayawati, Mulayam Singh Yadav, Mamta Banerjee and J Jayalalithaa.
When asked the reason for selecting their best candidate, majority of the respondents who chose Narendra Modi, mentioned that he is a good administrator and has proven his ability as the chief minister of Gujarat. From the survey it remains unresolved whether Modi is a polarising figure or not. According to the professor, If we combine the No and Cant say, the No and Cant say are winning statistically. I also analyzed this question again as 13A, leaving out those who said cant say (is there really anyone who doesnt have an opinion on him either way?!). That reveals a statistical tie! So it looks like it is hard to give a clear-cut answer to this question.
In two separate questions when asked whether Modi is an able administrator and whether the Gujarat model will work on a pan-India basis. A very significant proportion thinks he is an able administrator and a significant majority believes the model will work pan India.
Similarly in questions on whether the media targets Modi in an unfair manner and whether the Godhra riots have been given more media coverage than other riots in India here again, a significant margin feels he is indeed unfairly targeted.
On asked whether they would vote in the upcoming general elections, as many as 90% of the respondents replied that they will vote in the general elections of 2014. This is significantly high considering that just a little over half the participants had voted in the 2009 general elections. On asking the reason why one did not participate in the 2009 general elections, 62.5% of the respondents mentioned that they did not have a voters card. According to Mr Gosavi, This (question) was not easy to analyze given our methodology. But I tried to combine all the responses other than Dont have a voter card in my city to imply that all others do have a voter card. The result shows that a significant majority do NOT have voter cards, and perhaps this issue needs to be resolved?
With the Indian political scenario is becoming increasingly chaotic by the day, chances are we may be headed for early general elections. What happens in these elections will matter a lot. In this survey, majority of the participants were from in and around Mumbai and other urban areas. While almost 46% of the votes were cast by women in the 2009 general elections, just about 15% of the survey respondents were women. It is clear that even net savvy women on social media are neither interested in politics or personal finance issues. As we mentioned in our Cover Story on bank charges, (Read: Wake Up to Your Bank Charges) a massive 92% of the 1,500+ respondents to a survey o banking charges were men. This is rather shocking and indicates low financial literacy and apathy even among educated women, since almost everyone has at least one bank account.
Tuhin A Sinha 's Blog : Why 2014 will be a watershed moment in Indian history
Why 2014 will be a watershed moment in Indian history
The CNN-IBN Election Tracker's findings last week came as a pleasant surprise for BJP supporters and well wishers across the country as it corroborated the public sentiment which you can sense the moment you step out and talk to the common man on the streets. The findings from UP were particularly heartening where a 33 per cent vote share and 30 plus seats have been predicted for the party. This, when elections seem at least 8 months away, even the candidates have not been declared and Modi hasn't made his presence in UP felt yet.
Personally, I feel this is an election where the BJP tally in UP could go well up to 45-50. And mind you, polarisation will not be the only reason for it. Both the SP and BSP are faced with a major credibility crisis as they have supported the UPA through all its misdeeds. And hence, directly or indirectly, the resentment against the UPA is bound to extend to SP and BSP as well. Moreover, the SP's support towards criminal elements in the last year and half has anyway angered the young and educated voters who want a 'decisive' change. Hence it appears obvious that even though 'minorityism' will be a factor that the SP will exploit to its advantage, the sheer magnitude of angst against the ruling parties at the centre and in the state will render its efforts ineffective. And the natural gainer in this situation will be the BJP since the Congress is no more than a fringe player in UP.
Also surprising are the findings of some of the other surveys, which predict a 10 per cent vote share for the BJP in TN, 12 per cent in West Bengal and 16 per cent in Kerala. Now a vote-share in this range is unlikely to have a direct bearing on the seats that the party can win. But what it can't conceal is a strong groundswell of support building up for the party across the country and across all sections of the society.
For all those who are quick to point out that the UPA's decline hasn't resulted in a commensurate gain for the BJP, my answer is just wait and watch. It helps not to peak before time. Don't underestimate the intelligence of the Indian voters. Given a choice between BJP and instability, they will vote the same way as they did in the previous election when they had to choose between the Congress and instability.
Anyway, there is more to an election than numbers. And that is where this election will be different from many others that I have witnessed closely since 1989. If there is something that sets this election apart from many others, it is the passionate involvement of the youth. The same youth who seemed indifferent towards politics until 5 years ago are now making efforts to ensure that their voice and vote counts. Unlike 5 years ago when they would get swayed by the propaganda around Gujarat riots, this time they are equipped with facts and figures. They want to discuss jobs, poverty, development, the economy and everything that makes the Congress uncomfortable.
In fact last week, I was invited by the dynamic Piyush Goyal to witness a seminar of 200 plus young professionals from across the country who will be spearheading BJP's IT campaign for 2014. What I witnessed here was an eye- opener. There was a gentleman from Bangalore who has quit his high-flying corporate job till the elections get over, in order to work for the party full time. There were a couple of college students from West Bengal who were ready to drop a year and get involved with the campaign full time. All these people are doing their bit without charging a penny and in fact even paying for their travel.
It was heartening to witness this kind of unselfishness in the youth. I wondered what could have resulted in this massive transformation in just the last 3 to 4 years. The answer was simple: an intense hatred for the Congress for having taken people for a ride, doubled up with the hope provided by Modi of ridding the country of the malaise of mal-governance and unaccountability. The youth this time is determined to lead from the front and ensure that things change.
When the public sentiment for or against something is so strong, data and logic are often forced to take a backseat. I was not born when the rebellion against Emergency took place. But from whatever I have read and known about it, the public sentiment against the present regime is as strong. Even in 1977 until the election results were out, the Janta Party leaders were sceptical of winning a majority. Nobody had imagined they would end up winning 300 plus seats. The sentiments today are similar. The situation at the ground level is slowly but surely building up towards a concrete, unprecedented change. The results of 2014 will surprise everybody.
Moreover, 2014 will produce a new generation of young leaders, much like Emergency did. That would make it a Watershed election in Indian politics.
Why 2014 will be a watershed moment in Indian history
The CNN-IBN Election Tracker's findings last week came as a pleasant surprise for BJP supporters and well wishers across the country as it corroborated the public sentiment which you can sense the moment you step out and talk to the common man on the streets. The findings from UP were particularly heartening where a 33 per cent vote share and 30 plus seats have been predicted for the party. This, when elections seem at least 8 months away, even the candidates have not been declared and Modi hasn't made his presence in UP felt yet.
Personally, I feel this is an election where the BJP tally in UP could go well up to 45-50. And mind you, polarisation will not be the only reason for it. Both the SP and BSP are faced with a major credibility crisis as they have supported the UPA through all its misdeeds. And hence, directly or indirectly, the resentment against the UPA is bound to extend to SP and BSP as well. Moreover, the SP's support towards criminal elements in the last year and half has anyway angered the young and educated voters who want a 'decisive' change. Hence it appears obvious that even though 'minorityism' will be a factor that the SP will exploit to its advantage, the sheer magnitude of angst against the ruling parties at the centre and in the state will render its efforts ineffective. And the natural gainer in this situation will be the BJP since the Congress is no more than a fringe player in UP.
Also surprising are the findings of some of the other surveys, which predict a 10 per cent vote share for the BJP in TN, 12 per cent in West Bengal and 16 per cent in Kerala. Now a vote-share in this range is unlikely to have a direct bearing on the seats that the party can win. But what it can't conceal is a strong groundswell of support building up for the party across the country and across all sections of the society.
For all those who are quick to point out that the UPA's decline hasn't resulted in a commensurate gain for the BJP, my answer is just wait and watch. It helps not to peak before time. Don't underestimate the intelligence of the Indian voters. Given a choice between BJP and instability, they will vote the same way as they did in the previous election when they had to choose between the Congress and instability.
Anyway, there is more to an election than numbers. And that is where this election will be different from many others that I have witnessed closely since 1989. If there is something that sets this election apart from many others, it is the passionate involvement of the youth. The same youth who seemed indifferent towards politics until 5 years ago are now making efforts to ensure that their voice and vote counts. Unlike 5 years ago when they would get swayed by the propaganda around Gujarat riots, this time they are equipped with facts and figures. They want to discuss jobs, poverty, development, the economy and everything that makes the Congress uncomfortable.
In fact last week, I was invited by the dynamic Piyush Goyal to witness a seminar of 200 plus young professionals from across the country who will be spearheading BJP's IT campaign for 2014. What I witnessed here was an eye- opener. There was a gentleman from Bangalore who has quit his high-flying corporate job till the elections get over, in order to work for the party full time. There were a couple of college students from West Bengal who were ready to drop a year and get involved with the campaign full time. All these people are doing their bit without charging a penny and in fact even paying for their travel.
It was heartening to witness this kind of unselfishness in the youth. I wondered what could have resulted in this massive transformation in just the last 3 to 4 years. The answer was simple: an intense hatred for the Congress for having taken people for a ride, doubled up with the hope provided by Modi of ridding the country of the malaise of mal-governance and unaccountability. The youth this time is determined to lead from the front and ensure that things change.
When the public sentiment for or against something is so strong, data and logic are often forced to take a backseat. I was not born when the rebellion against Emergency took place. But from whatever I have read and known about it, the public sentiment against the present regime is as strong. Even in 1977 until the election results were out, the Janta Party leaders were sceptical of winning a majority. Nobody had imagined they would end up winning 300 plus seats. The sentiments today are similar. The situation at the ground level is slowly but surely building up towards a concrete, unprecedented change. The results of 2014 will surprise everybody.
Moreover, 2014 will produce a new generation of young leaders, much like Emergency did. That would make it a Watershed election in Indian politics.
Opinion polls predict BJP win in MP, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan - Rediff.com India News
The Bharatiya Janata Party is projected to retain power in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh and dislodge Congress in Rajasthan in the assembly polls to be held this year, according to opinion polls aired by two news channels.
Delhi, though, may have a hung assembly with BJP ahead of incumbent Congress while Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party playing the kingmaker.
Shivraj Singh Chouhan will storm to power for the third time in Madhya Pradesh with BJP projected to win 130 out of 230 assembly seats, both Times Now and Headlines Today claimed.
BJP will win 13 seats less than it did in 2008 polls. Congress will win only 84 seats, 13 seats more than its present strength, it was predicted.
In Delhi, Congress has been projected to win 29 and 28 seats respectively out of 70 seats by the channels. BJP has been given 30 and 28 seats by them and AAP is nine and seven seats respectively.
The Ashok Gehlot government is likely to face defeat with Congress being projected to get 79 and 64 seats in 200 seat-strong Rajasthan assembly. BJP has been projected to win 97 and 118 seats by both the surveys.
Chhattisgarh Chief Minister Raman Singh will retain power with BJP projected to win 47 out 90 seats in the assembly polls, according to the surveys. It has 50 seats currently. They given Congress 40 seats, a gain of two seats.
Times Now said 56 per cent voters want Chouhan back as chief minister while 23 per cent preferred Jyotiraditya Scindia.
Dikhit remains the most popular choice for the post of chief minister in Delhi. She was liked by 37 per cent of respondents in Times Now and 40 percent in Headlines Today.
Kejriwal is the choice for 22 per cent and 17 per cent.
Delhi BJP President Vijay Goyal has found favour with only 12 and 18 per cent of the respondents respectively in the surveys.
In Rajasthan, Gehlot is the choice of only 25 per cent of respondents for the next chief minister in both the surveys while Raje has been preferred by 44 and 42 per cent respectively.
Singh is also the most popular choice for the top post in Times Now survey with 48 per cent respondents liking him while Ajit Jogi of Congress is the choice of 23 per cent.
The Times Now survey also projected Narendra Modi as the most popular choice for the prime minister's chair, way ahead of Rahul Gandhi and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.
As many as 55 and 48 per cents of respondents in Delhi and Rajasthan respectively said they wanted Modi as PM while 18 and 17 per cent of them chose Rahul.
Manmohan Singh was preferred by three and eight percent of respondents in these states respectively.
The Bharatiya Janata Party is projected to retain power in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh and dislodge Congress in Rajasthan in the assembly polls to be held this year, according to opinion polls aired by two news channels.
Delhi, though, may have a hung assembly with BJP ahead of incumbent Congress while Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party playing the kingmaker.
Shivraj Singh Chouhan will storm to power for the third time in Madhya Pradesh with BJP projected to win 130 out of 230 assembly seats, both Times Now and Headlines Today claimed.
BJP will win 13 seats less than it did in 2008 polls. Congress will win only 84 seats, 13 seats more than its present strength, it was predicted.
In Delhi, Congress has been projected to win 29 and 28 seats respectively out of 70 seats by the channels. BJP has been given 30 and 28 seats by them and AAP is nine and seven seats respectively.
The Ashok Gehlot government is likely to face defeat with Congress being projected to get 79 and 64 seats in 200 seat-strong Rajasthan assembly. BJP has been projected to win 97 and 118 seats by both the surveys.
Chhattisgarh Chief Minister Raman Singh will retain power with BJP projected to win 47 out 90 seats in the assembly polls, according to the surveys. It has 50 seats currently. They given Congress 40 seats, a gain of two seats.
Times Now said 56 per cent voters want Chouhan back as chief minister while 23 per cent preferred Jyotiraditya Scindia.
Dikhit remains the most popular choice for the post of chief minister in Delhi. She was liked by 37 per cent of respondents in Times Now and 40 percent in Headlines Today.
Kejriwal is the choice for 22 per cent and 17 per cent.
Delhi BJP President Vijay Goyal has found favour with only 12 and 18 per cent of the respondents respectively in the surveys.
In Rajasthan, Gehlot is the choice of only 25 per cent of respondents for the next chief minister in both the surveys while Raje has been preferred by 44 and 42 per cent respectively.
Singh is also the most popular choice for the top post in Times Now survey with 48 per cent respondents liking him while Ajit Jogi of Congress is the choice of 23 per cent.
The Times Now survey also projected Narendra Modi as the most popular choice for the prime minister's chair, way ahead of Rahul Gandhi and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.
As many as 55 and 48 per cents of respondents in Delhi and Rajasthan respectively said they wanted Modi as PM while 18 and 17 per cent of them chose Rahul.
Manmohan Singh was preferred by three and eight percent of respondents in these states respectively.
Do ordinary Indians know their national leaders? - Rediff.com News
Do ordinary Indians know their national leaders?
With photographs of some of India's top political leaders, Rediff.com's A Ganesh Nadar travelled to the interiors of Tamil Nadu to see if the common man could identify their netas.
Political parties have begun to gear up for the 2014 elections, but first they have to face the electorate in five states in the assembly elections due later this year.
The national leaders are busy addressing massive rallies, flying around in helicopters, even while being fiercely guarded by their security cordon.
They may be sold on their own visibility and recognisability and appeal among the voters, but how well-known are they really in India’s small towns and villages?
A Ganesh Nadar travelled to the interiors of Tamil Nadu -- both to places where the literacy level is fairly high and other places where it is low -- and showed voters photographs of some of our national leaders to see if they could tell who's who.
For the low literacy area Nadar chose Vasudevanallur, at the foothills of the Western Ghats, about 90 km from district headquarters in Tirunelveli. For the high literacy area he chose Nalumavadi village in Tuticorin district. This village has two higher secondary schools, one English medium school and five primary Tamil medium schools.
The results were embarrassing, to put it mildly, embarrassing for the national leaders, that is.
President Pranab Mukherjee, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, Congress President Sonia Gandhi, Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi, Priyanka Gandhi, Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi, Bharatiya Janata Party patriarch L K Advani, BJP leaders Arun Jaitley and Sushma Swaraj were the leaders people were to identify. Thrown into the mix was a photograph of Bollywood superstar Amitabh Bachchan.
P Irulandi, 55, a farmer in Vasudevanallur, has never been to school.
“This is Sonia Gandhi, Rahul and Priyanka," Irulandi was bang on. "You know, (Tamil Nadu politician) G K Moopanar split the Congress and formed the Tamil Manila Congress. After his death his son Vasan merged the Tamil Manila Congress with the Indian National Congress. There was a public meeting in Madurai. I attended that, so I know this family of Congress leaders,” he explained how he correctly identified the family.
But he couldn’t identify other leaders from the photographs, but after looking at Arun Jaitley’s photo said, “This fellow looks like Rajiv Gandhi.”
Irulandi also said, “Sonia Gandhi now heads the government and her children help her.”
Irulandi knew the Gandhi family, but not the President, the prime minister, or anyone from the opposition, including the BJP's prime ministerial aspirant or even Bachchan.
Kanapathy, 49, and her husband Natarajan, are farm labourers in Vasudevanallur.
“This is Manmohan Singh, he is the prime minister, and this is Sonia Gandhi, she is a Congress leader. I don’t know what they both do because there is no rain and food prices are beyond our reach,” said Kanapathy sarcastically. “Who are these other people?”
Kanapathy could not identify the President, opposition leaders, Modi or Bachchan. Maybe, we should have used a picture of Rajnikanth instead?
N Madaswamy, 55, belongs to Nalumavadi village, and is a coconut tree climber by profession. He is uneducated, and has never been to school.
“I don’t know who these people are. I don’t need to know. I have never voted in any election, and I am not going to vote. I don’t think it is necessary,” said Madaswamy.
Madaswamy is as common as a common man can get. He doesn’t recognise any one of the leaders and does not think it necessary to vote. He is happy by himself, and thinks politics is a waste of time.
The irony being, a lot of our educated elite in the cities may also agree with him!
C Alagesan, 60, belongs to Nalumavadi village. He is a farmer, and also runs a small shop. He has studied up to the seventh standard.
“This man is the President (pointing at Pranab Mukherjee), I don’t know his name though. This is Sonia Gandhi, super boss of the government, this is her daughter Priyanka,” says Alagesan.
“This is that BJP amma (Sushma Swaraj). She makes long speeches in Parliament.”
“This is an actor” (at Bachchan).
“This is Advani. This is Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, who doesn’t do anything.”
“This is the BJP's prime minister aspirant, but I don’t know his name.”
“And this fellow looks like Rajiv Gandhi” (at Arun Jaitley).
Alagesan is one of the few who managed to correctly identify several leaders.
P Manthiram, 55, belongs to Nalumavadi village, and makes beds out of palm fibre for a living. He has never been to school.
“This is Manmohan Singh, he is the prime minister, but he is not a good leader.”
“This is Sonia Gandhi, she is the super prime minister. She has not done anything.”
“I don’t know the others. I am not interested, too.”
Do ordinary Indians know their national leaders?
With photographs of some of India's top political leaders, Rediff.com's A Ganesh Nadar travelled to the interiors of Tamil Nadu to see if the common man could identify their netas.
Political parties have begun to gear up for the 2014 elections, but first they have to face the electorate in five states in the assembly elections due later this year.
The national leaders are busy addressing massive rallies, flying around in helicopters, even while being fiercely guarded by their security cordon.
They may be sold on their own visibility and recognisability and appeal among the voters, but how well-known are they really in India’s small towns and villages?
A Ganesh Nadar travelled to the interiors of Tamil Nadu -- both to places where the literacy level is fairly high and other places where it is low -- and showed voters photographs of some of our national leaders to see if they could tell who's who.
For the low literacy area Nadar chose Vasudevanallur, at the foothills of the Western Ghats, about 90 km from district headquarters in Tirunelveli. For the high literacy area he chose Nalumavadi village in Tuticorin district. This village has two higher secondary schools, one English medium school and five primary Tamil medium schools.
The results were embarrassing, to put it mildly, embarrassing for the national leaders, that is.
President Pranab Mukherjee, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, Congress President Sonia Gandhi, Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi, Priyanka Gandhi, Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi, Bharatiya Janata Party patriarch L K Advani, BJP leaders Arun Jaitley and Sushma Swaraj were the leaders people were to identify. Thrown into the mix was a photograph of Bollywood superstar Amitabh Bachchan.
P Irulandi, 55, a farmer in Vasudevanallur, has never been to school.
“This is Sonia Gandhi, Rahul and Priyanka," Irulandi was bang on. "You know, (Tamil Nadu politician) G K Moopanar split the Congress and formed the Tamil Manila Congress. After his death his son Vasan merged the Tamil Manila Congress with the Indian National Congress. There was a public meeting in Madurai. I attended that, so I know this family of Congress leaders,” he explained how he correctly identified the family.
But he couldn’t identify other leaders from the photographs, but after looking at Arun Jaitley’s photo said, “This fellow looks like Rajiv Gandhi.”
Irulandi also said, “Sonia Gandhi now heads the government and her children help her.”
Irulandi knew the Gandhi family, but not the President, the prime minister, or anyone from the opposition, including the BJP's prime ministerial aspirant or even Bachchan.
Kanapathy, 49, and her husband Natarajan, are farm labourers in Vasudevanallur.
“This is Manmohan Singh, he is the prime minister, and this is Sonia Gandhi, she is a Congress leader. I don’t know what they both do because there is no rain and food prices are beyond our reach,” said Kanapathy sarcastically. “Who are these other people?”
Kanapathy could not identify the President, opposition leaders, Modi or Bachchan. Maybe, we should have used a picture of Rajnikanth instead?
N Madaswamy, 55, belongs to Nalumavadi village, and is a coconut tree climber by profession. He is uneducated, and has never been to school.
“I don’t know who these people are. I don’t need to know. I have never voted in any election, and I am not going to vote. I don’t think it is necessary,” said Madaswamy.
Madaswamy is as common as a common man can get. He doesn’t recognise any one of the leaders and does not think it necessary to vote. He is happy by himself, and thinks politics is a waste of time.
The irony being, a lot of our educated elite in the cities may also agree with him!
C Alagesan, 60, belongs to Nalumavadi village. He is a farmer, and also runs a small shop. He has studied up to the seventh standard.
“This man is the President (pointing at Pranab Mukherjee), I don’t know his name though. This is Sonia Gandhi, super boss of the government, this is her daughter Priyanka,” says Alagesan.
“This is that BJP amma (Sushma Swaraj). She makes long speeches in Parliament.”
“This is an actor” (at Bachchan).
“This is Advani. This is Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, who doesn’t do anything.”
“This is the BJP's prime minister aspirant, but I don’t know his name.”
“And this fellow looks like Rajiv Gandhi” (at Arun Jaitley).
Alagesan is one of the few who managed to correctly identify several leaders.
P Manthiram, 55, belongs to Nalumavadi village, and makes beds out of palm fibre for a living. He has never been to school.
“This is Manmohan Singh, he is the prime minister, but he is not a good leader.”
“This is Sonia Gandhi, she is the super prime minister. She has not done anything.”
“I don’t know the others. I am not interested, too.”
2014: Winning India
Quick question: Who is India’s biggest “minority”? No, it isn’t Muslims. It’s first-time voters who’ll be between 18 and 23 years old in May 2014.
What is the precise number of these young people who will be eligible to cast their vote in a Lok Sabha poll for the first time?
According to the 2011 Census, the number is a staggering 149.36 million. That’s well over 20% of the 725 million voters the Election Commission (EC) reckons will be eligible to vote in 2014.
The total number of 149.36 million first-time voters will likely swell by May 2014 to around 160 million (the census was held in 2011). Muslims eligible to vote in 2014, in contrast, are estimated at around 110 million (of the total 180-million Muslim population).
So any political party that can capture the imagination – and trust – of these 160 million young Indians eligible to vote for the first time in their lives will have an edge in 2014.
The other large minority among the 725 million-strong electorate in 2014 is of course the urban and semi-urban middle-class voter. This slice adds up to another 150 million eligible voters. That is why the Congress is keen a professional like Nandan Nilekani, the former Infosys CEO and now head of the Aadhaar project, contests from Bangalore. It hopes to draw some of the sting from the urban middle-class backlash against misgovernance.
The 2014 election will probably be the first Lok Sabha poll decided not only on caste, religion and region – though those will play an important role – but by a combination of young first-time voters and the urban and semi-urban middle-class.
For the UPA, the food security and land acquisition acts as well as the direct benefit transfer (DBT) scheme were meant to snap up the rural vote. It knows the urban and first-time voter is largely lost to it because these segments are the most vocal critics of the government’s serial corruption.
Unfortunately for the UPA, its large rural vote demographic has been hit by inflation and joblessness. Together the two could hurt the Congress in 2014 despite its food security legislation for which states will anyway appropriate credit.
Inflation is a double-edged sword. It hurts voters in both cities and villages but a large chunk of rural voters who live off their farm produce welcome higher food prices. Much of the inflated food price though is sucked away by corrupt middlemen, many linked to political elements, deeply embedded in the farm-to-fork chain. They have a vested interest in rising prices.
The minorities, which usually hand the Congress nearly a third of its seats, are no longer a secure votebank. Muzaffarnagar has broken not only the centuries-old Jat-Muslim bond but its malign collateral damage could travel across north India.
The Congress has used polarisation to capture Muslim votes for decades. That strategy, predicated on keeping Muslims backward and in perpetual fear of “communal forces”, is beginning to backfire.
As a result, the Congress’ two traditional electoral strengths – the rural poor and Muslims – could desert it in 2014: the former over inflation and jobs; the latter over betrayal.
Two myths meanwhile need to be dismantled as we approach the 2014 general election:
One: A presidential-style contest is unsuited to a parliamentary democracy like India.
Nonsense. Britain, Canada and Australia are also parliamentary democracies. In each, the principal parties choose their leader through internal democratic ballots. Voters know precisely who will be prime minister if the party they vote for forms the government.
In Britain, for example, in the 2010 general election the Conservative party was led by David Cameron and Labour by Gordon Brown. Voters were clear about each party’s prime ministerial choice before they cast their vote.
The presidential vs. parliamentary debate is therefore bogus, designed to shield the Congress’ reluctance to risk Rahul as prime ministerial candidate. In the feudal Congress a non-Gandhi prime minister anyway does not have the last word on policy. Such a system would be ridiculed in any other serious parliamentary democracy.
To cover up this democratic anomaly, the Congress has floated a second myth: Rahul, unlike Narendra Modi, is not “desperate” to be prime minister.
The truth of course is that Rahul, like mother Sonia, already enjoys effective veto power over the prime minister. He doesn’t need to be prime minister. Power without responsibility is an undemocratic tradition the Gandhis have established since 2004 and Rahul is perfectly happy with the status quo.
* * *
Several key questions remain:
One, will the BJP benefit from the Congress’ leadership deficit?
Two, will the Congress and SP’s decades-long polarisation of Muslims in Uttar Pradesh, culminating in Muzaffarnagar, play into the BJP’s hands in 2014?
Three, will Narendra Modi’s appeal to three key constitutuencies – first-time voters, the urban middle-class, and the silent Hindu majority – generate a wave that will take the BJP past 200 seats in the 16th Lok Sabha?
In part 2, an updated party-wise, seat-wise, state-wise projection of the 2014 Lok Sabha election will attempt to answer these and other questions.
Quick question: Who is India’s biggest “minority”? No, it isn’t Muslims. It’s first-time voters who’ll be between 18 and 23 years old in May 2014.
What is the precise number of these young people who will be eligible to cast their vote in a Lok Sabha poll for the first time?
According to the 2011 Census, the number is a staggering 149.36 million. That’s well over 20% of the 725 million voters the Election Commission (EC) reckons will be eligible to vote in 2014.
The total number of 149.36 million first-time voters will likely swell by May 2014 to around 160 million (the census was held in 2011). Muslims eligible to vote in 2014, in contrast, are estimated at around 110 million (of the total 180-million Muslim population).
So any political party that can capture the imagination – and trust – of these 160 million young Indians eligible to vote for the first time in their lives will have an edge in 2014.
The other large minority among the 725 million-strong electorate in 2014 is of course the urban and semi-urban middle-class voter. This slice adds up to another 150 million eligible voters. That is why the Congress is keen a professional like Nandan Nilekani, the former Infosys CEO and now head of the Aadhaar project, contests from Bangalore. It hopes to draw some of the sting from the urban middle-class backlash against misgovernance.
The 2014 election will probably be the first Lok Sabha poll decided not only on caste, religion and region – though those will play an important role – but by a combination of young first-time voters and the urban and semi-urban middle-class.
For the UPA, the food security and land acquisition acts as well as the direct benefit transfer (DBT) scheme were meant to snap up the rural vote. It knows the urban and first-time voter is largely lost to it because these segments are the most vocal critics of the government’s serial corruption.
Unfortunately for the UPA, its large rural vote demographic has been hit by inflation and joblessness. Together the two could hurt the Congress in 2014 despite its food security legislation for which states will anyway appropriate credit.
Inflation is a double-edged sword. It hurts voters in both cities and villages but a large chunk of rural voters who live off their farm produce welcome higher food prices. Much of the inflated food price though is sucked away by corrupt middlemen, many linked to political elements, deeply embedded in the farm-to-fork chain. They have a vested interest in rising prices.
The minorities, which usually hand the Congress nearly a third of its seats, are no longer a secure votebank. Muzaffarnagar has broken not only the centuries-old Jat-Muslim bond but its malign collateral damage could travel across north India.
The Congress has used polarisation to capture Muslim votes for decades. That strategy, predicated on keeping Muslims backward and in perpetual fear of “communal forces”, is beginning to backfire.
As a result, the Congress’ two traditional electoral strengths – the rural poor and Muslims – could desert it in 2014: the former over inflation and jobs; the latter over betrayal.
Two myths meanwhile need to be dismantled as we approach the 2014 general election:
One: A presidential-style contest is unsuited to a parliamentary democracy like India.
Nonsense. Britain, Canada and Australia are also parliamentary democracies. In each, the principal parties choose their leader through internal democratic ballots. Voters know precisely who will be prime minister if the party they vote for forms the government.
In Britain, for example, in the 2010 general election the Conservative party was led by David Cameron and Labour by Gordon Brown. Voters were clear about each party’s prime ministerial choice before they cast their vote.
The presidential vs. parliamentary debate is therefore bogus, designed to shield the Congress’ reluctance to risk Rahul as prime ministerial candidate. In the feudal Congress a non-Gandhi prime minister anyway does not have the last word on policy. Such a system would be ridiculed in any other serious parliamentary democracy.
To cover up this democratic anomaly, the Congress has floated a second myth: Rahul, unlike Narendra Modi, is not “desperate” to be prime minister.
The truth of course is that Rahul, like mother Sonia, already enjoys effective veto power over the prime minister. He doesn’t need to be prime minister. Power without responsibility is an undemocratic tradition the Gandhis have established since 2004 and Rahul is perfectly happy with the status quo.
* * *
Several key questions remain:
One, will the BJP benefit from the Congress’ leadership deficit?
Two, will the Congress and SP’s decades-long polarisation of Muslims in Uttar Pradesh, culminating in Muzaffarnagar, play into the BJP’s hands in 2014?
Three, will Narendra Modi’s appeal to three key constitutuencies – first-time voters, the urban middle-class, and the silent Hindu majority – generate a wave that will take the BJP past 200 seats in the 16th Lok Sabha?
In part 2, an updated party-wise, seat-wise, state-wise projection of the 2014 Lok Sabha election will attempt to answer these and other questions.
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Delhi assembly elections would determine how much modi magic actually works in region where BJP doesn't has any popular leaders since in Rajasthan, Chattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh they have leaders like Vasundhara Raje, Raman Singh, Shivraj Singh Chauhan etc while they don't have any local popular leader in Delhi and thus relying heavily on Modis Popularity
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Delhi elections has AAP magic right now.....BJP cannot win there ....
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