12 countries strike TPP trade accord

[William Hung]

I went to watch a home football game at my school. in American football there is a play called the hail mary when a desperate team tosses the ball almost randomly as far as possible towards the touchdown zone. TPP is Vietnam hail mary.

LOL I just love these sourgrape comments from Chinese members. Why are you guys suddenly so interested about Vietnam and its own trade decisions? I never knew this TPP thing could make some Chinese butthurt so much.

Anyway as per usual, can you guys provide credible analysis and forecasts specifically for Vietnam? If you are going to single out VN, then do so. Don’t just post ambiguous articles and insinuatuons that is not necessarily true for Vietnam, like how TPP will erode worker’s rights, etc.

Lets break down the individual industries specifically for Vietnam and post your analysis and forecasts for each of them:

For example in the Pharmaceutical sector - how much does each type of medicine currently cost in VN? How accessible are they to the average Vietnamese consumer? How many Pharma company does VN currently have and what kind of product do they make? What is the current development stage of the Vietnamese pharma industry? What kind of progress do their research make? Once the TPP kicks in, what would the answers to all of these questions then be? How would it affect the economy of Vietnam? If there is going to be a difference, what would the effect on the overall economy be once we take into consideration the impact of the other sector like agriculture, diary, automobile, etc?

Then apply these same questions to all the other industries.

I can see a lot of Chinese members suddenly getting obssessive with this TPP ( especially with regards to VN) but can any one of you answer my challenge above and give your own or a credible analysis and forecasts about the impact of the TPP specifically for Vietnam? or are you guys not able to do this and were just posting sourgrape comments out of butthurt?

@JaiMin, let’s wait and see if the Chinese (or Bangladeshi) members can answer these questions first to see if they have done thier own research and homework before they made those comments about Vietnam and TPP. If they can’t, then it means that they were just making unsupported sourgrape claims out of butthurt or something lol.

 

[CAPRICORN-88]

While many anti-China element may be celebrating thinking that the TPP may destabilized China trade. The truth will soon be make known but in the meanwhile Joe Public is kept in the dark. Here is an interesting letter I read in the local newsmedia in Malaysia.

Letters - In the dark over TPPA
Posted on 4 October 2015 - 09:47pm

I HAVE read articles on TPPA (Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement) and would like to offer my opinion.

Union members can’t express happiness or sadness over the coming conclusion of TPPA. In other words, we are CONFUSED. The reason is because we DON'T EVEN KNOW the content of the agreement which contains 29 chapters including one on labour.

However, from the workers’ view, one agenda which concerns us very much is the investor state dispute settlement which SUPERCEDES local laws. That means any dispute with employers will be decided by international law. What will be the status of labour laws, collective agreements and other local laws? Will they be redundant and irrelevant?

Just this one topic creates shivers and we have not even gone into the other 28 chapters which include increase of cost for medicines.

While many consultations have taken place with the government, all these meetings were not transparent and merely sought opinions.

We urge the government to discuss with the Malaysian Trades Union Congress and other stakeholders any agreement which may be detrimental to workers, citizens and businesses.

A. Prem Kumar
General Secretary
Association of Maybank Executives


"That means any dispute with employers will be decided by international law"
See the confusion: Not international law but by US law. Only members of the WTO has subjected to international law.

US law may not benefit member of TPP e.g. Samsung which lost her case to Apple, won in Germany.

IMO as for China it will be business as usual because in reality, USA should be more concerned about China's SILK ROAD Corridors which will linked 2 of the most populated nations in the world in Asia, many ASEAN nations to Europe. China market in reality is TOO HUGE to be ignore. Her eMart alone will be 5X of USA soon.
Example: AIIB for instance which is supported by many European nations will be in operation soon will break the domination of the IMF.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

Well, the TPP will hurt Vietnam more than it will do to China.

To believe that the US will allow you to eat its lunch freely, you might live in an alternative universe.

 

[William Hung]

While many anti-China element may be celebrating thinking that the TPP may destabilized China trade. The truth will soon be make known but in the meanwhile Joe Public is kept in the dark. Here is an interesting letter I read in the local newsmedia in Malaysia.

Letters - In the dark over TPPA
Posted on 4 October 2015 - 09:47pm

I HAVE read articles on TPPA (Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement) and would like to offer my opinion.

Union members can’t express happiness or sadness over the coming conclusion of TPPA. In other words, we are CONFUSED. The reason is because we DON'T EVEN KNOW the content of the agreement which contains 29 chapters including one on labour.

However, from the workers’ view, one agenda which concerns us very much is the investor state dispute settlement which SUPERCEDES local laws. That means any dispute with employers will be decided by international law. What will be the status of labour laws, collective agreements and other local laws? Will they be redundant and irrelevant?

Just this one topic creates shivers and we have not even gone into the other 28 chapters which include increase of cost for medicines.

While many consultations have taken place with the government, all these meetings were not transparent and merely sought opinions.

We urge the government to discuss with the Malaysian Trades Union Congress and other stakeholders any agreement which may be detrimental to workers, citizens and businesses.

A. Prem Kumar
General Secretary
Association of Maybank Executives


"That means any dispute with employers will be decided by international law"
See the confusion: Not international law but by US law. Only members of the WTO has subjected to international law.

US law may not benefit member of TPP e.g. Samsung which lost her case to Apple, won in Germany.

IMO as for China it will be business as usual because in reality, USA should be more concerned about China's SILK ROAD Corridors which will linked 2 of the most populated nations in the world in Asia, many ASEAN nations to Europe. China market in reality is TOO HUGE to be ignore. Her eMart alone will be 5X of USA soon.
Example: AIIB for instance which is supported by many European nations will be in operation soon will break the domination of the IMF.

LOL that is an outdated letter. Now that the TPP deal has been agreed upon, the contents of the deal will be made public soon. Then each member countries will have their own procedures and decisions to pass it or not. But there will be no more negotiations, either each country accept it, or they are out. The letter you posted was for the negotiating stage.

And and dispute will be settled with US laws? do you even know what you are talking about? lol

Well, the TPP will hurt Vietnam more than it will do to China.

To believe that the US will allow you to eat its lunch freely, you might live in an alternative universe.

TPP will hurt Vietnam?

So can you answer all my questions in post #61 and provide your analysis and forecasts (or ones from credible sources) specifically for Vietnam?

 

[Beidou2020]

TPP is designed to increase the barriers for local companies to compete with American multinationals.

America is promising to increase investment in these countries but in return laws are designed to protect American multinationals from local competition.

Local companies will be the biggest losers from this trade agreement.

 

[anon45]

@Nihonjin1051 @F-22Raptor @anon45 How many years are remaining until the TPP is fully implemented? What will China's total nominal GDP be at by that time?

Id imagine relatively quickly, it is fast tracked in US congress.

 

[Huan]

Id imagine relatively quickly, it is fast tracked in US congress.

Can you give it in numbers?

 

[grand]

the bar for tpp is very high china shouldnt join. also the rules apparently favor u.s..

china, a huge economy, should no longer be just a rule follower, it needs to become a rule setter. the u.s. and japan are both crumbling economies. china should focus on new, emerging markets, its one belt one road initiative.

 

[Viva_Viet]

LOL I just love these sourgrape comments from Chinese members. Why are you guys suddenly so interested about Vietnam and its own trade decisions? I never knew this TPP thing could make some Chinese butthurt so much.

Anyway as per usual, can you guys provide credible analysis and forecasts specifically for Vietnam? If you are going to single out VN, then do so. Don’t just post ambiguous articles and insinuatuons that is not necessarily true for Vietnam, like how TPP will erode worker’s rights, etc.

Lets break down the individual industries specifically for Vietnam and post your analysis and forecasts for each of them:

For example in the Pharmaceutical sector - how much does each type of medicine currently cost in VN? How accessible are they to the average Vietnamese consumer? How many Pharma company does VN currently have and what kind of product do they make? What is the current development stage of the Vietnamese pharma industry? What kind of progress do their research make? Once the TPP kicks in, what would the answers to all of these questions then be? How would it affect the economy of Vietnam? If there is going to be a difference, what would the effect on the overall economy be once we take into consideration the impact of the other sector like agriculture, diary, automobile, etc?

Then apply these same questions to all the other industries.

I can see a lot of Chinese members suddenly getting obssessive with this TPP ( especially with regards to VN) but can any one of you answer my challenge above and give your own or a credible analysis and forecasts about the impact of the TPP specifically for Vietnam? or are you guys not able to do this and were just posting sourgrape comments out of butthurt?

@JaiMin, let’s wait and see if the Chinese (or Bangladeshi) members can answer these questions first to see if they have done thier own research and homework before they made those comments about Vietnam and TPP. If they can’t, then it means that they were just making unsupported sourgrape claims out of butthurt or something lol.

Chinese couldnt predict the fall of its own RMB even when Niceguy tried his best to explain, so how can you hope Chinese here predict some thing correctly about the benefit that VN will get ??

Maybe TPP is a good thing,
it gives vietnam a rare chance to show themselves on the world stage.
We China will wait some time and have a look.
If vietnam can survive,
then China will seek to join in.
Go,vietnam!

US treat VN in different way, you cant learn anything from us in TPP. If we unhappy with the deal, we will burn up their factories, beat up those foreign 'investors' as we did in the last riots, but US wont sue VN bcs they need VN to contain CN.

If CN do the same, then US will show No mercy to your people .

 

[grand]

Chinese couldnt predict the fall of its own RMB even when Niceguy tried his best to explain, so how can you hope Chinese here predict some thing correctly about the benefit that VN will get ??

we just have different opinions.

if vietnam think tpp will benefit vietnam it should join. good luck.

 

[anon45]

Can you give it in numbers?

Will be put to a vote in congress sometime in the early half of next year. Specific date? I'm not that close to the halls of power lol.

In anycase before that date people will be able to read the TPP, as after 30 days for the lawmakers to review it it will be made open to the public and their reactions will be gauged by the congressmen.

 

[Viva_Viet]

we just have different opinions.

if vietnam think tpp will benefit vietnam it should join. good luck.

But only 1 option become true. A so called " different opinions" only show that your educational system is so bad, they only teach BS in school and cant help people predict correctly what will happen.

 

[grand]

But only 1 option become true. A so called " different opinions" only show that your educational system is so bad, they only teach BS in school and cant help people predict correctly what will happen.

if you prefer to live in lala land no one can stop you.

its self-evident who is doing better in economy, vietnam or china.

its self-evident who is doing better in economy, china, u.s. or japan.

 

[William Hung]

Chinese couldnt predict the fall of its own RMB even when Niceguy tried his best to explain, so how can you hope Chinese here predict some thing correctly about the benefit that VN will get ??

Yeah I’ve always asked them to provide credible analysis and forecasts for VN to back up their claims about the impact of the TPP on VN but they can never do that. I dont expect them to be able to make a proper forecast and prediction.

I remember lots of Chinese members even predicted the TPP negotiation to die.

Nothing will happen because TPP is already dead..

It was fun hearing Niceguy mumbling TPP for a while but other people need to get a clue why the US was so hastily to push TPP forward.

What happens when the TPP kicks in?

@utp45

He is getting over excited, better don't disturb him.



About the support for TPP in Vietnam, it is a little bit complicated. The TPPs, as you know, it requirements is to reform State Owned Enterprises (SOEs) in Vietnam, which suck up the lion’s share of government contracts, state-provided land use rights and bank loans due to their political connections, most often leaving private sector firms outside of closed-door deals. Also, it projects information often are not make public, so it is easily lead to corruption and lack of transparency

SOEs in Vietnam, according to study and survey done by govt and NGOs, are much less productive than private companies, (pretty much same like the rest of the worlds), and SOEs in many industries stay monopoly and too much reliant and favored from government which lead to inefficiency , so more competition with foreign firms are goods, SOEs will fail if they can’t boost productivity to stay competitive with international firms . By one measure, the incremental capital output ratio, or ICOR, SOEs require three times as much input to produce a unit of output as does the domestic private sector. Yet the big banks don’t loan to these more efficient, private sector firms. Instead, politics drives them to pour resources into the SOEs.

This use of capital keeps productivity low – and salaries along with it – while stoking inflation through the oversupply of money without simultaneous improvements in the economy’s efficiency. Average workers suffer on both ends. As long as their only competitive advantage is their cheapness, they can’t ask for raises. And with all the capital sloshing around the inefficient economy, inflation eats into their already low wages. So TPPs, as many officers in our country believe the entrance of foreign products and services, under FDI (foreign direct investment) or other ways, will help Vietnam, because at the least it will train Vietnamese employees in sophisticated skills and management skills and transfer of technologies to improve their productivity. Government also got FTAs with European Unions(EUs) and Eurasian unions(EEUs) in hope both take effect in the end of this year and boost FDIs. Plus S.Korea also

Vietnam follow export oriented economy, so this will lead to migrations in hundred thousand from rural to urban and industrial areas to seek for income improvement and better future (same case like China about 10 to 20 years ago i think). And life is getting more and more expensive in the industrialized areas and often the salaries of those workers are not in matches with the cost of living or inflation in other words. In a long run, this can increase the gap between rich and poor- not a good thing. So, the big problem in Vietnam is not unemployment, but inflation. VN need a leap in her education and training.

So, naturally, private businesses in Vietnam hope for a fairer shake in a TPP world. But surprisingly, many officials are also excited about this aspect of the treaty. The common refrain is that everybody in Vietnam knows that the SOEs hold the economy back, but the political will to cut them loose, and with them all the political benefits the ruling party can gain – the cushy positions for supporters and former officials and their families – is hard to muster. The TPP can be just the push that’s needed to inject this willpower into the reform process.

In fact, the governing party has staked its legitimacy on consistently improving living conditions. Nobody looks at the slowing economy and the erosion of salaries by inflation with greater trepidation than the political elite in Ha Noi. That is why the TPP is the governing party’s top economic priority, and also why the SOEs, with all their influence, won’t be able to hold back this agreement.

About the SOEs in Vietnam, i think you can ask @Yorozuya about it, he is quite well-known about SOEs i think. Or ask @Carlosa about how he think of those SOEs

IMO, except some of them quite efficient and well manage, the rests are suck, govt current action to reform is good

Yes this sounds true. But this is maybe too hard for some members here to comprehend or accept because of their butthurt. Hard for them to see the future if they have once predicted that TPP negotiation will die.

Personally, I am happy that workers can now have the legal rights to form their own independent worker’s union without the interference from govt and companies.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

Does anyone understand this?