India seeks Pak passageway for freight train service

[Omar1984]

Omar, we've had this discussion before the rail link to China from Pakistan is estimated to cost over 10 billion USD and take 15 years to build, a 2008 report on the PRC ECCO website deems this link to be commercially unviable but goes on to say that it can be built for strategic reasons. The decision to build the Pak-China rail link will remain with the Chinese since the cost of building and maintaining the link is higher on the Chinese side, it is still uncertain if China will invest in a Pak-China link when an alternative link via Central Asia is available to China. There is some speculation that the Chinese are slowly losing interest in Gwadar due to this and other considerations.
The good news is Pakistan can still access China via Afghanistan, I’m anxious for Pakistan and Afghanistan to get into a mutually beneficial commercial relationship - it is crucial for long term peace and stability.

Even through the worst of times for Pakistan, China has never left Pakistan:

Chinese dig in as foreigners leave Pakistan

QUETTA, Pakistan – China, rather than have its workers in Pakistan join the exodus of foreigners who are quitting the strife-torn country because of security concerns, the dismal state of the economy or both, is increasing its involvement there and planning further projects.

The number of Chinese engineers working in Pakistan has surged to 10,000 this year from 3,000 in 2008, working on 120 projects in different sectors of the economy. China is also involved in a 750-kilometer railway linking the two countries, from Havellian to the 4,730-meter-high Khunjerab Pass in Gilgit-Baltistan, the area until recently known as the Northern Areas. Havellian is linked with the rest of the rail network in Pakistan, and the Chinese will lay track within its territory up to Khunjerab.

Analysts say that China is increasingly interesting in investing in Gilgit-Baltistan, shifting its focus from insurgency-hit Balochistan in Pakistan’s southwest, where China is already involved in large development projects including Gwadar port. A proposed Pakistan-China energy and trade corridor, involving gas and oil pipelines and a rail link, would start in Gwadar and enter China’s Xinjiang region after running through the Gilgit-Baltistan region.

Some 767 development projects are to be carried out in Gilgit-Baltistan this year, with a particular focus and the help of China on the power sector to harness the huge hydro-power potential of the region.

China’s determination to maintain its interest in Pakistan was underlined recently by Chinese Ambassador to Pakistan, Lou Zhaohui, who told the media in Islamabad, “A number of foreigners [have] left Pakistan, but we are committed to complete all the projects on which Chinese are working.”

China has expressed satisfaction over the security being provided to its nationals in Pakistan, where the Chinese embassy has a joint task force with the interior ministry and has a 24-hour hotline.

Chinese dig in as foreigners leave Pakistan | PK on web

As for Afghanistan, China is helping Pakistan build a railway track to Afghanistan as well. Afghanistan is a member of the ECO states and the goal of this railway is to connect all the ECO member states through railway. Afghanistan is connected to China by the narrow Wakhan Corridor, the weather conditions might be a little better than the Karakoram Highway but China and Pakistan are working on a railway connecting Pakistan and China, you are right it may be costly but China is investing a lot. Pakistan maybe poor but we have a good friend.

Here's Pakistan's contribution the Pak-China railway:
http://www.defence.pk/forums/econom...arded-feasibility-pak-china-rail-service.html

P.S. China has not left Gwadar. Gwadar Port is HEAVILY invested by China, they will not forget about Gwadar, the entire city is still undergoing construction and the Chinese are helping Pakistanis build Gwadar.
View attachment 412c50a57158280c5e6df95037a8c69a.jpg

 

[Omar1984]

You shouldn't gloat over the billions of dollars Pakistan has denied itself over the years. Pakistan is already suffering, the opportunity cost is in the tens of billions, far more than Pakistan has had to borrow from the IMF.

By denying yourself access to one the worlds largest and fastest emerging markets, that is not only right next to you, but also the lack of language and cultural barriers, the potential for cooperation is huge.

Make no mistake, India isn't stuck. Have you looked at the map? notice India's huge coastline, merchant navy and relations with Iran. India has already built a huge port in Iran and will simply have to cover the Pakistani leg by sea. Not a best case scenario for India, sure. but can Pakistan do without money?

Its India who is requesting to be part of this project, not Pakistan requesting to be part of India project. What does that tell you? Who needs the other more?

India knows that to reach its full potential it must have easy access to Central Asia, Europe, and Middle East. The easiest way is a transit route through Pakistan.

Pakistan may have a smaller economy right now but we'll see what the future will hold when we are connected to all ECO member states and China through railway.

If only India had good relations with Pakistan. Their dream of being superpower would be reality if all major disputes with Pakistan were resolved.

Transit route to the western world will not come that easy to India.

 

[dbc]

Omar, I'm not questioning China's commitment to Pakistan. Having negotiated with Chinese officials I know the Chinese are driven by maximizing returns for their investment, I just don’t see ROI in a rail link between Pakistan and China especially considering the line will have to be laid at 15,000 ft at its highest point. I know China has done it before with a rail link between Qinghai and Tibet (16,400 ft) but will they repeat that feat for Pakistan’s benefit? Unless the Chinese see some strategic importance in this project I just don’t see it happening. As for Gwadar, Chinese investments in Gwadar has slowed considerably in ’09 I attribute this to loss of interest – what’s your take on this?

 

[Omar1984]

Omar, I'm not questioning China's commitment to Pakistan. Having negotiated with Chinese officials I know the Chinese are driven by maximizing returns for their investment, I just don’t see ROI in a rail link between Pakistan and China especially considering the line will have to be laid at 15,000 ft at its highest point. I know China has done it before with a rail link between Qinghai and Tibet (16,400 ft) but will they repeat that feat for Pakistan’s benefit? Unless the Chinese see some strategic importance in this project I just don’t see it happening. As for Gwadar, Chinese investments in Gwadar has slowed considerably in ’09 I attribute this to loss of interest – what’s your take on this?

Recent reports have suggested that Pakistan and China made agreements on the Pak-China Railway and China is intersted in being linked to the Pakistan-Iran-Turkey railway so we'll see if we are connected to China through railway in the near future.

Pakistan has some problems in areas near Gwadar so maybe because of the situation there work has been slowed off in Gwadar, but there is still some Chinese workers present in Gwadar, if they have lost total interst in Gwadar they would've all left.

The recent news I posted in my previous post suggests that China is working heavily on Gilgit-Baltistan now (those areas are located near the Pakistan-China border). For China to use Gwadar Port, their goods must go through Gilgit-Baltistan to get into China so its important we work on Gilgit-Baltistan as well.

The Government of Pakistan and the Pakistani military are working on stabilizing the situation in Gwadar, once that area is stabilized then we'll see better days for Pakistan.

I have faith

 

[sajan]

Originally Posted by bigmoneymaker View Post
the economic structure of india is not that much different from that of pakistan(mainly base on agricultural econ income), unlike china exports most of the daily necessities to the world as world factory, freight carriage fee can mean a lot to the fate of dragon..
india is able to compete with china in term of exports, opportunity cost for carriage fee can hardly be reduced for india because that means it is the india that should be in the position to beg pakistan to let it have access to a cheaper alternative freight route rather than shipping on sea which cannot travel straight link like the train on the land...and of course it is a test for indian to learn humble for peacefully developing ties and strategies...

"kariyam kanan kazhuthakkalum pidikkam..."
No problem in doing that...

 

[ejaz007]

India left IPI project on the basis of security concern and the assumption that the pipeline shall make India dependent on Pakistan. Now they are ignoring both things.

Well I guess where ever Indians turn they find Pakistan standing in their way. .

When they wish to do business with Afghanistan, Pakistan is in their way, when they turn to Iran they have to go through Pakistan and now Turkey and beyond they can not bypass Pakistan.

 

[Omar1984]

Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, Maldives and Myanmar are "opportunity" for Pakistan? and what is India eying at? Iran, Afghanistan, Turky, Central Asia, Middle East and Europe? Trade and business opportunity Pakistan is not even 1/10 of what it would be for India. So India is like 10 times more in need of Pakistan than we need them.

In the same week, we have received strong protest from India on the construction of Bunji Dam and the same week India is requesting for trade route. Has Indian leaders lost commonsense that when you are going to request something, you don't point finger a the same time.

India would earn billions of dollars from trade with Central Asia, Middle East, and Europe through Pakistani soil and gain influence into these very important regions. India would then use those billions of dollars to expand their defence budget and buy even more weapons and some members here are saying Pakistan should allow India access through Pakistan for a couple of million dollars even if relations with India are horrible and there have been no improvement in talks over disputes with India

Also India might do some drama baazi on the train then blame Pakistan for it that would harm Pakistan's relations with Iran and Turkey. This train is one good thing that happened to Pakistan recently, we dont need to ruin it for Pakistan its best to keep India out of this.

 

[WarProfessor]

there is still some Chinese workers present in Gwadar, if they have lost total interst in Gwadar they would've all left.

China is working heavily on Gilgit-Baltistan now

If indeed they all left, doesn't mean they actually left.

 

[EjazR]

Just FYI, almost all bilateral trade with India be it China (55B+), Turkey(3B+), Iran (13B+) e.t.c are much higher than Pakistani bilateral trade. And this is already happening

Moreover, India will be buying energy from central asia, so it will be a net income for these countries. India will not "earn" anything from here.

To say that India will benefit if we allow it transit is just naive. India is already doing trade without transit, while Pakistan hasn't been able to do so yet even though it is connected through borders already.
Atleast take a moment to think before you give reasons for not giving transit access

 

[Hyde]

Good for all south Asia............ i have no objection on this.......... the day india resolve the Kashmir issue.......... We will start competing with Europe

 

[Comet]

Good for all south Asia............ i have no objection on this.......... the day india resolve the Kashmir issue.......... We will start competing with Europe

Excellent saying.

Then it will truly be Century of Asia

 

[Omar1984]

Just FYI, almost all bilateral trade with India be it China (55B+), Turkey(3B+), Iran (13B+) e.t.c are much higher than Pakistani bilateral trade. And this is already happening

Moreover, India will be buying energy from central asia, so it will be a net income for these countries. India will not "earn" anything from here.

To say that India will benefit if we allow it transit is just naive. India is already doing trade without transit, while Pakistan hasn't been able to do so yet even though it is connected through borders already.
Atleast take a moment to think before you give reasons for not giving transit access

but transit route is an easier route to reach Central Asia, Middle East, and Europe for India so it would benefit India why would India ask for access to Pakistan-Iran-Turkey railway if it wouldnt be beneficial for them.

And this railway will soon be linked to all Central Asian countries eventually as promised by ECO, this would give India easy access to CAR's through Pakistan like it wanted to for so long. Also to be any kind of power, you must have influence in other important region, transit route through Pakistan will give India influence and easy access to 3 important regions: Europe, Middle East, and Central Asia.

At the same time theres mistrust between Pakistan and India...India is always telling other countries to put pressure on Pakistan, how can we be so sure India wont make up some drama on this train to isolate Pakistan from the international community, like it always dreams of.

Its not in Pakistan's interest to allow India any kind of transit route through Pakistan, unless all major disputes with India are resolved.

 

[FireFighter]

Omar, I'm not questioning China's commitment to Pakistan. Having negotiated with Chinese officials I know the Chinese are driven by maximizing returns for their investment, I just don’t see ROI in a rail link between Pakistan and China especially considering the line will have to be laid at 15,000 ft at its highest point. I know China has done it before with a rail link between Qinghai and Tibet (16,400 ft) but will they repeat that feat for Pakistan’s benefit? Unless the Chinese see some strategic importance in this project I just don’t see it happening. As for Gwadar, Chinese investments in Gwadar has slowed considerably in ’09 I attribute this to loss of interest – what’s your take on this?

From the POV of Investors, Pakistan is probably the worst place to invest right now due to the ongoing war and political instability.

Most Western investment firms have pulled out of Pakistan. Major Western insurance companies had stopped issuing insurances.

The US and whole of Europe has ditched Pakistan. No investments, no infrastructure development, no tech transfer, no military hardware for Pakistan...

When the whole Western World is busy cornering Pakistan (due to the Nukes), despite of all this, China remains insistent in doing development Projects in Pakistan.

Now, what does that tell you?

This friendship goes beyond economic interests, my friend.

 

[Iron_Eagle_17]

From the POV of Investors, Pakistan is probably the worst place to invest right now due to the ongoing war and political instability.

Most Western investment firms have pulled out of Pakistan. Major Western insurance companies had stopped issuing insurances.

The US and whole of Europe has ditched Pakistan. No investments, no infrastructure development, no tech transfer, no military hardware for Pakistan...

When the whole Western World is busy cornering Pakistan (due to the Nukes), despite of all this, China remains insistent in doing development Projects in Pakistan.

Now, what does that tell you?

This friendship goes beyond economic interests, my friend.

Indeed my friend but those who are blinded by hatred and their own philosphy cannot think of anything better.

 

[R.A.W.]

but transit route is an easier route to reach Central Asia, Middle East, and Europe for India so it would benefit India why would India ask for access to Pakistan-Iran-Turkey railway if it wouldnt be beneficial for them.

And this railway will soon be linked to all Central Asian countries eventually as promised by ECO, this would give India easy access to CAR's through Pakistan like it wanted to for so long. Also to be any kind of power, you must have influence in other important region, transit route through Pakistan will give India influence and easy access to 3 important regions: Europe, Middle East, and Central Asia.

At the same time theres mistrust between Pakistan and India...India is always telling other countries to put pressure on Pakistan, how can we be so sure India wont make up some drama on this train to isolate Pakistan from the international community, like it always dreams of.

Its not in Pakistan's interest to allow India any kind of transit route through Pakistan, unless all major disputes with India are resolved.

Do I need to remind you again that Pakistan is not the only route to central asia. Though this may be the only root.

In economics if the size of business grows then the transportation costs becomes comparably small. For example hiring a big ship is far cheaper then hiring a small one or with small space within a ship. So with the growth of the Indian oversea market Pakistan cannot totally cut off India though what max it can do is to make the cost of Indian products bit high. But with the market value for the Indian products which are already existent in the market that can be negotiated.

In terms of European market if you will study you will the trends are different in comparison to Indian and Pakistani market. The equations of cheaper always sells is not applicable to the European market. People prefer brands over costs.