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Pakistan’s ISI from the inside

Taimi Khan, Chief Justice ko Shikayat laga do Webby Uncle ki, kay wo moderation may interferance kar rahy hain :D

OOOO nahi yaar, just having a light moment with respectable VCheng Sir.
 
The US IMO is only seeing things from it's perspective, and thinking that the whole world does things the same way they do theirs'. But this region has alot of problems and the way US is doing it, i see no end, or maybe they are just faking it and do indeed mean to destabilise the region?
 
Americans using Pakistan like a disposable for their own goals in Asia, and we doing the same with them. Welcome to reality of politics.
 
Although I am taking a risk posting this since AM has not given me sanctuary to express my thoughts, I found what the article says between lines to be more interesting than the lines themselves.

............................

The ISI: AN EXCEPTIONAL SECRET SERVICE

By Lt. General Asad Durrani



In the process, from a small time player that undertook to punch above its weight, rubbing shoulders with the best in the game, the Americans, catapulted the Agency into the big league. Unsurprisingly, the ISI became a matter of great concern not only for its foes.

So the CIA built up the the ISI in order to serve its goals.

The shared objective - defeat of the occupation forces - was one reason; respect for each other's turf, the more important other.

But then it cannot follow that the CIA would respect any "turf". It was out to get the USSR and the ISI was a useful tool.


It did not mean that they trusted each other.

Of course. "Trust" between secret services is an impossibility by definition.


Twice these vilification campaigns led, under American pressure, to major purges of ISI's rank and file.

And the leadership of the ISI caved in twice to let these purges happen? What better example to illustrate that the subservience in the one-way relationship, rather than the "rubbing shoulders" with the big leagues.


In the early 1990s, we in the ISI understood this shift in American attitude as a big-brother's desire to establish hegemony, but more crucially - now that the Soviet Union after its withdrawal from Afghanistan had ceased to exist - to cut this upstart service to size.

So the useful tool built up to serve a particular purpose was not longer needed. Should this not have been clear much before the nineties?


But what seemed to have caused the most anguish amongst our American friends were the prospects of an increasingly confident ISI, vain enough to throw spanners in the work of the sole surviving superpower. These apprehensions were not entirely ill-founded as the Iraq-Kuwait crisis of 1990-91 was soon to show.

"Increasingly confident" and "vain enough" on the basis of playing as a temp in the big leagues, without any resources of its own to sustain such dreams? This would suggest cockiness peaking just before the downfall.

Sometimes in 1992, General Brent Scowcroft, former national security advisor to US Presidents Ford and George H.W. Bush, reportedly conceded that the ISI's assessment of Saddam's forces was closer to the mark than their own, which highly exaggerated Saddam's capacity. Now, if anyone else in the business too was to broadcast its account every time the CIA "sexed-up" a threat to suit American objectives (next time on Iraq's WMD holding for example), some pre-emption was obviously in order.

So what was to follow was to punish the ISI for a better assessment of Saddam's forces? Or for appearing to be smarter? This would be too naive an interpretation to work as any tangible reason.

Soon thereafter the ISI was cleansed of the old guard, most of them ostensibly for their infatuation with the "Jihadists" in Afghanistan and Kashmir.

So here comes Purge #3 in a relatively short period of time, washing away the veneer of confidence and vanity.

These purges must have served a few careers but when it came to taking decisions and making policies, the new guard had no choice but to put its shoulder behind the Taliban bandwagon.

So after three purges carried out by the ISI leadership at the CIA's behest, we are now to beleive that the survivors, no doubt carefully vetted by the CIA, chose to put their shoulders behind their favoured factions of the the Taliban, out of the independent conviction that they had no choice? Or does this mean that they were out-maneuvered and cornered into this position, right where the CIA wanted them to be?

The ISI was thereafter subjected to another purge in the hope that the refurbished setup would put its heart and soul behind the new decree: 'chase anyone resisting the American military operations in Afghanistan all the way to hell'.

So the ISI leadership carried out Purge #4 at the CIA's behest.

So, this time around as well, it is not any "rogue elements" in the ISI but the complexity of the crisis that necessitates selective use of force; essentially against the "rogue groups", some of them undoubtedly planted or supported by forces inimical to our past and present policies.

Of course, after the fourth purge, how can there be any "rogue" elements still left within the ISI? To me, this claim describes a classic set-up operation that the ISI swallowed, hook, line and sinker.

Indeed, the ISI suffers from many ailments, most of them a corollary of its being predominantly a military organisation and of the Army's exceptional role in Pakistani politics.

A military mind is not good at all for operating a spy agency, specially in the "big leagues", and the "exceptional" role in politics guarantees lots of easily manipulated influence for outside masters such as the CIA.


The most important takeaway from this fascinating snapshot of the ISI, the Taliban, and Pakistan's view of America and its strategic choices is that Pakistan will never be a predictable puppet of US interests.

This snapshot is not fascinating at all, being consistent with easily deducible facts in evidence for those who know where to look.

In summary:

"Pakistan will never be a predictable puppet of US interests, but a puppet nonetheless".

Discussing the comments but mot my person welcomed! :D
 
Problem with people is, especially western ones, they tend not to or don't want to see the reality.

Things in this part of the world are not in black &white, there are lot of factors involved with extreme complications in them.

And above all, we can't trust the Americans.


Can they trust us for that matter? The issue is not trust but divergent interests -- that fuels the mistrusts.

Pakistan should carefully review its policies based upon:

US will remain engaged one way or another, in Afghanistan for the next fifteen years.

The dream of Strategic depth in Afghanistan is gone for atleast the next fifteen years.

India is fast becoming a global economic power and regional strategic partner of US.

Kashmir solution on the basis of self determination might trigger a breakaway of Pakistani Kashmir due to prevailing Pakistani economic conditions.

Water will become a contentious issue -- a life and death struggle for Pakistan very quickly.

The only country that can have any sort of leverage on India in near term would be US.

The fact that one can not bank upon our Arab Brethren in a crunch situation.

US is one of our largest export market for textiles

Pakistan has strained relations with all its neighbors except China.

Above all, our economy is in shambles!!!!


It seems our work is cutout for us -- let us focus inwards and sort out the issues that ails us from inside. The heady days of the Afghan Jihad are gone, it is a uni polar world and China is not going to take on US any time soon. Not atleat in the way we dream of -- "Jihad." Both need each other to survive and prosper for the next couple of decades.

Let us contend ourselves by remaining neutral in this tug of war and jostling for resources by granting port facilities to both China and the US provided, they contribute towards our economic uplift in a meaningful manner and not by installing old cranes at Gawadar!!!

The time has come that both China and US are becoming desperate for a toe hold near the mouth of the Gulf. Time to strike a deal for Pakistan!!! Now or never time once again.
 
USA pushing pakistan since last 10 years to convert pakistan as pure first enemy of taliban so after he left we fight with them till we destroyed .trust on CIA mean you are world no-1 stupid .:tdown::disagree:
 
Can they trust us for that matter? The issue is not trust but divergent interests -- that fuels the mistrusts.

...........................

It seems our work is cutout for us -- let us focus inwards and sort out the issues that ails us from inside.
................................

Let us contend ourselves by remaining neutral in this tug of war and jostling for resources by granting port facilities to both China and the US .................

The time has come that both China and US are becoming desperate for a toe hold near the mouth of the Gulf. Time to strike a deal for Pakistan!!! Now or never time once again.


A great post, but how? Who is going to focus inwards to sort out internal ailments when there are billions of dollars to gobble up?

Playing China and USA against each other is not going to be fruitful at all.

The US already has firm footholds in the region.

Who speaks for Pakistan other than a power elite who have shown that they are only watching out for themselves?
 
Spy craft is a full time game and not a deputation or stint type operation. Despite having civilian operators in the lower cadres, ISI remains a "On Deputation" manned agency of the army.

Lately, technical's have been hired from the civilian set-up but these positions are not career oriented and there is not incentive to continue in the job for a longer term.

PA has in the past created an Intelligence Corps to push Intelligence as a career and spy craft as a MOS in the army. The Corps. as far as I know remains a "Corps" on paper and has not taken off due to lack of funds.

ISI can learn from one of its mentors, CIA (as detailed by Gen Durrani i his article) and induct civilian leadership in the agency to ensure continuity and excellence in its ranks. Today, by the time a mid level officer on deputation starts getting the hang of it, he is ready to be posted back or returned to his unit.

The policy framework should always be in the hands of the elected reps. This is easier said than done. A way to do this would be to form think tanks sponsored by GoP (Not staffed by GoP) to recommend policy initiatives that can taken up by ISI and after study can be debated in the Senate Intelligence Committee with an eye on providing a solid, debated policy structure for the GoP to decide and ISI to implement. The tactical's should be left to the agency with an oversight by the SIC.
 
It seems our work is cutout for us -- let us focus inwards and sort out the issues that ails us from inside. The heady days of the Afghan Jihad are gone, it is a uni polar world and China is not going to take on US any time soon. Not atleat in the way we dream of -- "Jihad." Both need each other to survive and prosper for the next couple of decades.

Let us contend ourselves by remaining neutral in this tug of war and jostling for resources by granting port facilities to both China and the US provided, they contribute towards our economic uplift in a meaningful manner and not by installing old cranes at Gawadar!!!

The time has come that both China and US are becoming desperate for a toe hold near the mouth of the Gulf. Time to strike a deal for Pakistan!!! Now or never time once again.

I'm sorry but I strongly disagree with this suggestion, providing port facilities to US means providing foothold to a giant which we will not be able to push back any time soon. I don't know how you suggest this on one hand and then state on the other hand to stay for Pakistan to stay neutral. Contradictory statements IMHO.

One cannot stay neutral once Americans put their feet on solid grounds in a country.

At the moment our nation is resisting, please do not instigate something which has nothing to do with betterment of our country.

As far as China is concerned, I would not mind providing access to them, along with Russia if they are guaranteed by China itself.
 
A great post, but how? Who is going to focus inwards to sort out internal ailments when there are billions of dollars to gobble up?

Playing China and USA against each other is not going to be fruitful at all.

The US already has firm footholds in the region.

Who speaks for Pakistan other than a power elite who have shown that they are only watching out for themselves?

The key to all of the above is the Armed Forces of Pakistan and the National Security Council Setup. The Army, by hook or crook will have a foot in the National politics. What is needed is the politicians to have a foot in the policy formulation. This can be done provided the politicians want to shoulder the responsibility. Right now they are sitting comfortable and let the armed forces take the heat for one fiasco over another and perhaps rightly so. Meanwhile, as pointed out by you, they are busy gathering their booty.

IMHO the answer is the NSC, Mid term elections with hope that a more saner lot can take over. If not and we have the same old faces than we can not blame any one else but ourselves and rightly so.
 
The key to all of the above is the Armed Forces of Pakistan and the National Security Council Setup. The Army, by hook or crook will have a foot in the National politics. What is needed is the politicians to have a foot in the policy formulation. This can be done provided the politicians want to shoulder the responsibility. Right now they are sitting comfortable and let the armed forces take the heat for one fiasco over another and perhaps rightly so. Meanwhile, as pointed out by you, they are busy gathering their booty.

IMHO the answer is the NSC, Mid term elections with hope that a more saner lot can take over. If not and we have the same old faces than we can not blame any one else but ourselves and rightly so.

Sadly, I do not see any realistic hope of a change in the status quo.
 
Spy craft is a full time game and not a deputation or stint type operation. Despite having civilian operators in the lower cadres, ISI remains a "On Deputation" manned agency of the army.

Lately, technical's have been hired from the civilian set-up but these positions are not career oriented and there is not incentive to continue in the job for a longer term.

PA has in the past created an Intelligence Corps to push Intelligence as a career and spy craft as a MOS in the army. The Corps. as far as I know remains a "Corps" on paper and has not taken off due to lack of funds.

ISI can learn from one of its mentors, CIA (as detailed by Gen Durrani i his article) and induct civilian leadership in the agency to ensure continuity and excellence in its ranks. Today, by the time a mid level officer on deputation starts getting the hang of it, he is ready to be posted back or returned to his unit.

The policy framework should always be in the hands of the elected reps. This is easier said than done. A way to do this would be to form think tanks sponsored by GoP (Not staffed by GoP) to recommend policy initiatives that can taken up by ISI and after study can be debated in the Senate Intelligence Committee with an eye on providing a solid, debated policy structure for the GoP to decide and ISI to implement. The tactical's should be left to the agency with an oversight by the SIC.

Aren't you considering GoP more than what they are worth? Zilch!

Providing any access to GoP inside Military establishment without cleansing the major political parties from anti-Pakistan and self-indulged elements is like giving monkeys a box of matchstick and then lighting one in front of them.

I would rather take control from GoP of every major department and run in privately by specialists who have clean slate from last 2-3 generations.

If we take your suggestion ‘think tank sponsored by GoP (but not staffed)’ who is to know GoP is not going to ‘interfere’ in their work later in the coming time?
 
Yups, and i worry, that if US kept up its childish attitude, they are gonna destabilize this whole region, which already has happened alot, and we have taken the brunt out of it, with thousands dead, economy in bad shape, militancy again reappeared in Baluchistan with foreign forces help, trouble in the tribal areas as well as other parts of the KPK with lot of support from across the border.

To me it seems, US wants this to happen, that is why they are so persistent and they came for this very exact reason.

US is playing a very dangerous game.

The US is playing with the fire using its overconfidence. That will burn it rightaway............Insha-Allah........:coffee:
 
I'm sorry but I strongly disagree with this suggestion, providing port facilities to US means providing foothold to a giant which we will not be able to push back any time soon. I don't know how you suggest this on one hand and then state on the other hand to stay for Pakistan to stay neutral. Contradictory statements IMHO.

One cannot stay neutral once Americans put their feet on solid grounds in a country.

At the moment our nation is resisting, please do not instigate something which has nothing to do with betterment of our country.

As far as China is concerned, I would not mind providing access to them, along with Russia if they are guaranteed by China itself.

It is not a contradictory statement my friend -- staying neutral does not necessarily mean siding with China or otherwise but keeping the status quot at any given time. If we seem desperate to give one to China than it would be logical to give access to its nemesis in the region to maintain the status quot.

My friend, and this from the bottom of my heart -- diplomacy is not a child's play and there are no absolutes in there - -just interests. US and for that matter China are not our Mamoos or even KSA!!!! They have interest in the region or specifically with us.

China wants to have access to shortest possible route to African oil where it has huge concessions in a number of countries about to go hot. At the same time it wants to have some control on worlds 65% of oil flowing out of this region as a counter balance against possible choke off of its trade routes in and around Straits of Malacca and Singapore.

US while progressively moving away from dependency on gulf oil, still has legitimate interests to ensure access to free flowing oil from the region for its allies, globally. While it squarely sits inside the gulf (Bahrain) it is in danger of being bottled-up once a flare -up with China happens. It requires a facility near the mouth of the gulf to monitor or if this is not possible than deny everyone else the chance to do the same. It is a classic chess game.

Coupled with concerted effort to replace China as its largest global trading partner in the long run with India, it is developing India as a classic "Rope-a-Dope" patsy against China.

China on the other hand is fast gobbling up all and any rare earth resources around the world (95% known rare earth deposits are in the control of China) to ensure US dependency on China remains as it is. To counter balance the Patsy game, China is developing Pakistan as an irritant against India to keep them off balance.

There is nothing wrong with this if the players in question are happy with their roles.

However, the question is should Pakistan again dabble in a global game or for that matter can it afford to at this point in time or can it take that kind of pressure from both India and US come crunch time. Can it depend upon China to come to our real aid and not just send us some planes or boats. After all they did not deploy their forces against India in 71' nor did they back us in Kargil.

I have tried to explain here the " The New Great Game" and the role of China -- it is a lot more complicated and has a number of variables that can not be discussed at this point in time as it would require a lot of time and effort. But I have tried to put forward the basic crux/essence of the situation panning out today.

Do we want to form another alliance based upon the use of Pakistan as a patsy yet again but this time from our friends from the east. I guess thrice is not enough to whet our appetite for such a role or maybe we are a dutiful lot of soldiers destined to click our heals for the highest bidder.

We keep on playing from the same play book -- what I am suggesting is more out of box, a more imaginative approach to get what we want out of this Great Game without burning our fingers this time around.

BTW have we thought of the Mullah and his views on going east????
 

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