India's Forex Reserves Fall As Foreign Investors Head For The Exits

[kaykay]

Hehehe... For some 87 billions might be too big. For India, it's pocket change.

Well not exactly pocket change but Its manageable for sure. Unlike what some gloom and doom guys might wish for. Anyway better than those with 30-40% of external debt to GDP ratio guys with little forex.

 

[maithil]

Well not exactly pocket change but Its manageable for sure. Unlike what some gloom and doom guys might wish for. Anyway better than those with 30-40% of external debt to GDP ratio guys with little forex.

Come on.. With FDI set to touch 100 billion in 2 years and export 800 billions in same time frame, whats 87 billion? Include remittances and you have less than 30 billion deficit. That's what called pocket change.

Anyway let's put a kala teeka and stop giving these guys( with 40% external debt to GDP) a scare.

 

[SoulSpokesman]

@maithil @kaykay

To be honest I wont call the situation very comfortable- it never is during periods of high crude prices, Still India has seen worse days and I think we can hobble through this.

Regards

 

[MH.Yang]

Hehehe... Forex reserves fall to a paltry 588 Billions amid debt repayment. All this gloom and doom while GDP set to grow by North of 8 percent ( highest in last 22 years) and external debt to GDP ratio of 20%. Keep crying .

India's total debt is $1.4 trillion. India expects its currency to grow by 8%, but the rupee depreciation has exceeded 8% this year, so the GDP growth in dollar terms will be 0%. And CPI is also 8%, so the actual growth is also 0%.

 

[kaykay]

@maithil @kaykay

To be honest I wont call the situation very comfortable- it never is during periods of high crude prices, Still India has seen worse days and I think we can hobble through this.

Regards

Yes prolonged rising crude and gas prices are a headache for developing countries like ours. But there are many positives as well....this year our service export is expected to touch 300 billion usd and remittances and FDI at all time high...we will manage this. Infact we are managing this crisis better than the most in our neighborhood and beyond.

 

[MH.Yang]

Compare the size of economy, remittance etc then yeah. In Fy2020-21, overall deficit was merely 17 billion usd.

Hehehe... For some 87 billions might be too big. For India, it's pocket change.


Indonesia is hardly an economy to be used as barometer. Don't bust their bubbles.

Yes it is, oh, and how much is this as %age of Indonesian economy?

Indonesia’s External Debt Decreased in January 2022

www.bi.go.id

87 billion USD is "merely" ????

US $87 billion, accounting for 3% of India's GDP and 16% of India's foreign exchange reserves. The "merely" is a little too much.

 

[Bilal9]

India's external debt to GDP ratio is in check at lower than 20%.
India's forex reserves are roughly the same as Its external debt.
Overall export(commodity plus services) equals overall Import (commodity plus services). Chill. Economically India is stable.

How come it says here that India's debt to GDP ratio is 52%?

Please explain to a simple person as I am no expert in economic matters.

Debt-to-GDP Ratios | By Country | 2022 | Data | World Economics

World Economics has re-estimated each country

worldeconomics.com

 

[Indos]

US $87 billion, accounting for 3% of India's GDP and 16% of India's foreign exchange reserves. The "merely" is a little too much.

Yup that will cause huge stress on currency exchange rate, particularly under this current circumstances (high energy and commodity prices and The Fed aggressive tightening policy)

And no please dont be fooled by some PDF members saying currency depreciation is good for boosting export and hurting import, particularly it will be very bad under current situation for any nation that has huge percentage of debt compared to its GDP and whether their private sectors borrow huge money from foreign investors whether from bank loan or bond market.

 

[MH.Yang]

Yup that will cause huge stress on currency exchange rate, particularly under this current circumstances (high energy and commodity prices and The Fed aggressive tightening policy)

And no please dont be fooled by some PDF members saying currency depreciation is good for boosting export and hurting import, particularly it will be bad for any nation that has huge percentage of debt compared to its GDP and whether their private sectors borrow huge money from foreign investors whether from bank loan or bond market.

Yes.

Currency depreciation is indeed conducive to exports, but the premise is that you are an industrial country with low debt and foreign trade surplus.

Undervaluing the currency is good for China, but it does not mean it is also good for India.

 

[Bilal9]

Hehehe... Forex reserves fall to a paltry 588 Billions amid debt repayment. All this gloom and doom while GDP set to grow by North of 8 percent ( highest in last 22 years) and external debt to GDP ratio of 20%. Keep crying .

Let's not start frying Puris before oil is hot and ready.

CRISIL and RBI both pegging GDP growth in India at around 7 percent at the latest. For 2023-24 FY, the forecast is around 6% - as sharp rebound effect fades. And judging by Indian standards, "predik-suns" don't mean jack squat.

India's GDP Growth Forecast FY23 and FY24 by various Financial Organizations

India's GDP Growth Forecast various Financial Organizations: Financial year 2023 and 2024 (Last Update-4 March 2024) Here we are providing the list of

ambitiousbaba.com

Your information is from 2021, when outlandish claims were made e.g. 10 per cent growth etc.

India GDP growth projected at 7.2% for FY23: RBI Governor

RBI Policy: The central bank has kept the repo rate unchanged at 4% for the 11th time in a row

www.livemint.com

MSN

www.msn.com

87 billion USD is "merely" ????

You are talking to Modi's bhakts, these people lie to themselves even while dreaming at night.

Fraud and lying is second nature to some of these people in India, starting with their CVs/resumes.

 

[SoulSpokesman]

@Bilal9

Bilalbhai,

CRISIL and RBI both pegging GDP growth in India at around 7 percent at the latest. For 2023-24 FY, the forecast is around 6% - as sharp rebound effect fades.

I think I will take 7% in FY 2023 and 6% thereafter, happily.

Regards

 

[Indos]

Let's not start frying Puris before oil is hot and ready.

You are talking to Modi's bhakts, these people lie to themselves even while dreaming at night.

Fraud and lying is second nature to some of these people in India, starting with their CVs/resumes.

What I can say any economist has their own calculation and it can be different in how they respond the economy fluctuation.

Just to remind folks here about Indonesia Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati, she became nervous when Indonesia posted high trade deficit in 2018 which is actually only 8 billion USD (considered as very high in Indonesian standard based on our trade history). Even it is despite our GDP growth is still around 5 % and inflation is below 4% although we did experience of decreasing FDI during that year around 7 %.

The currency strength that she had in mind during that period, Indonesian economists still remember what happen during Asian Financial Crisis, so we are very prudent and take currency depreciation as some thing serious.

That 2018 year is one of the main reason Indonesia gov even didnt buy any foreign defense equipment and start negotiating on KFX/IFX program, this is despite we have already trillion USD economy (nominal GDP) during that year.

Some sharp policies are made and thanks God we can decrease the trade deficit into around 3 billion USD in 2019 with around 32 % increase in FDI and since 2020 we always post trade surplus so far

 

[maithil]

India's total debt is $1.4 trillion. India expects its currency to grow by 8%, but the rupee depreciation has exceeded 8% this year, so the GDP growth in dollar terms will be 0%. And CPI is also 8%, so the actual growth is also 0%.

India's external debt is around 620 billions. That includes external debt owned by private sector. Indian Government share of that external debt is close to 140 Billions. Rest is owned by private sector.

India is not expecting its currency to grow by 8%. Our GDP is set to increase by more than 8%. There is a difference.

Let's not start frying Puris before oil is hot and ready.

CRISIL and RBI both pegging GDP growth in India at around 7 percent at the latest. For 2023-24 FY, the forecast is around 6% - as sharp rebound effect fades.

India's GDP Growth Forecast FY23 and FY24 by various Financial Organizations

India's GDP Growth Forecast various Financial Organizations: Financial year 2023 and 2024 (Last Update-4 March 2024) Here we are providing the list of

ambitiousbaba.com

Your information is from 2021, when outlandish claims were made e.g. 10 per cent growth etc.

India GDP growth projected at 7.2% for FY23: RBI Governor

RBI Policy: The central bank has kept the repo rate unchanged at 4% for the 11th time in a row

www.livemint.com

MSN

www.msn.com

You are talking to Modi's bhakts, these people lie to themselves even while dreaming at night.

Fraud and lying is second nature to some of these people in India, starting with their CVs/resumes.

Not a fan of puris, Indian GDP growth for 2021-2022 was 8.7 % . This was reported in June 2022 . We will see whats actual growth in 2022-23 in June next year. Till then Keep crying.

 

[Black Tornado]

How come it says here that India's debt to GDP ratio is 52%?

Please explain to a simple person as I am no expert in economic matters.

Debt-to-GDP Ratios | By Country | 2022 | Data | World Economics

World Economics has re-estimated each country

worldeconomics.com

We’re talking of External debt

 

[maithil]

We’re talking of External debt

He is a simple person. These facts are beyond his understanding capacity.