Peshawar to Karachi - Estimated HSR Cost: $33 billion.

[Kompromat]

Forgive me for blowing smoke today.

Distance from Karachi to Peshawar connecting all major cities and divisions in between including, Hyderabad, Multan, Faisalabad, Lahore etc will be around 1800 km (est).

China is building its high speed railway at a cost of $30 million per mile, which works out to be about $33 billion dollars in order to build a Peshawar to Karachi HSR connecting a market of over 200 million people.

Each train carries up to 1500 passagers.

Journey takes 5-6 hrs.

Let's assume, there's an investor who wants to build this HSR project.

Q: Would it make sense?
Q: What are potential benefits & risks?

 

[BHarwana]

Okay let's see pro and cons of this. If I miss some aspects please feel free to add.

I will also explain why China wants to build railways in Pakistan and around the world.

 

[Kabira]

Very costly for Pakistan, no one will finance it in short term. Best option for now is $8b CPEC project to upgrade railways to speed of 160km/h.

Maybe in 50 years.

For now motorways and upgraded railways should be good enough. Also make air travel cheaper between north and south.

 

[BHarwana]

1 a single bus from Peshawar to Karachi takes 45 passengers at max. So if we consider a HSR it will take 1500 passengers in one go. Which means 34 busses will take that many passengers.

Bringing in economies of scale concept yes it will reduce the cost of travel.

It will also hurt economic growth in many areas because many business of retail are located along highways and they earn a lot from passengers.

 

[MBT 3000]

better railways are needed

 

[BHarwana]

It will reduce our crude oil import bill massively as HRS is electricity based. So that will be plus point for us. Which means KSA and UAE will not finance it but Qatar will finance the project.

 

[Cash GK]

Okay let's see pro and cons of this. If I miss some aspects please feel free to add.

I will also explain why China wants to build railways in Pakistan and around the world.

they want to send heir products quickly become pakistanis roads or not good enough. pakistanis trains are not good enough

 

[Kabira]

It will reduce our crude oil import bill massively as HRS is electricity based. So that will be plus point for us. Which means KSA and UAE will not finance it but Qatar will finance the project.

?? Do you even know how it works? Qatar will not finance China project. And China already rejected Pakistan proposal, remember Nawaz promise of bullet trains?

 

[Sinnerman108]

1 a single bus from Peshawar to Karachi takes 45 passengers at max. So if we consider a HSR it will take 1500 passengers in one go. Which means 34 busses will take that many passengers.

Bringing in economies of scale concept yes it will reduce the cost of travel.

It will also hurt economic growth in many areas because many business of retail are located along highways and they earn a lot from passengers.

Economies are built on railways.

 

[war&peace]

It won't be profitable. HSRs are not profitable on most routes except a few and that is why world has abstained from HSRs so far. We need to wait until 5-10 years before thinking about such a project. A much prudent approach is to have dual tracks, advanced signalling system and trains running at 160 kph at higher frequency, modern wagons, once your GDP crosses equivalent of 1 trillion dollars, you can build such HSRs.

 

[Indus Pakistan]

Q: Would it make sense?

Yes. 200 million people and growing. Most of that population is laid out in linear model and this HSR would run through most of the population nodes.

Q: What are potential benefits & risks?

The benefits are obvious and no point in even enumerating. But the risks are divided into -

1. real
2. perception

Leaving the real the perception investors have about Pakistan is very, very poor. From investment point of view Pakistan is percieved as marginally better then Afghanistan. Therefore I cannot percieve of a private investor or consortia of investors bothering with sinking $33 billion into Pakistan which would give phenomenol returns over the long term but from POV of investior would be almost gambling. Pakistan is a destination most investors stay well clear off especially where the returns are over the long term. The country is seen as fragile, weak, lawless, full of extremism and bursting with chaos which is not something that investors like. The recent events with TLP are good example that go to reinforce the nehative view of Pakistan across the globe.

I can easily see a TLP type frenzied mob blocking HSR operations, burning trains or tearing track along various points as they did with the motorway network. Given there are plenty of other destiniations that are attractive but percieved as stable like Vietnam, India, Bangladesh etc I can't see this happening. Not at least until extremism is resolved and the state ensure due process of law on all marauding idiots like Rizvi.

That leaves investment hinged on strategic interests. This can only be China but the Chinese have already investing in CPEC and I don't see them extending that to HSR. Their investment are driven by strategic calculus and no more.

That is my few pennies on the subject.

 

[TheNoob]

Pakistan can not rely on Railway for distant travels.
If we're going HSR or Bullet Train levels...
Flight companies will always be the better choice in the end VS the cost and time.

 

[CriticalThought]

@Horus even before analyzing the feasibility we need to look at the need. Why do people need HSRs? In countries facing dense urbanization, the only solution to the growth problem is outward expansion. That means you either need to move people's workplaces or reduce the travel time. HSR is a solution for the latter. It allows cities to expand further, and allows people to commute to different cities for work on a daily basis. Why do people in Pakistan travel between cities? Our biggest crunch times are actually during holidays. That means, our inter-city travel is mostly for personal reasons rather than business purposes. An HSR might make sense, for example, between Karachi and Hyderabad if cheap housing is created in Hyd and people can commute easily to Karachi.

The OP is another example of everything that is wrong with Pakistanis today. We dream of ideas based on a wish and a prayer. 'Connect 200 million people'. Sounds flashy, but that's not how you start a new project - EXCEPT if you have 33 billion dollars in the pocket.

 

[BHarwana]

?? Do you even know how it works? Qatar will not finance China project. And China already rejected Pakistan proposal, remember Nawaz promise of bullet trains?

Qatar financed a thermal power project with China already so why not? Sorry you seemed insecure in a sudden.

 

[Yankee-stani]

I can easily see a TLP type frenzied mob blocking HSR operations, burning trains or tearing track along various points as they did with the motorway network. Given there are plenty of other destiniations that are attractive but percieved as stable like Vietnam, India, Bangladesh etc I can't see this happening. Not at least until extremism is resolved and the state ensure due process of law on all marauding idiots like Rizvi.

That leaves investment hinged on strategic interests. This can only be China but the Chinese have already investing in CPEC and I don't see them extending that to HSR. Their investment are driven by strategic calculus and no more.
[/QUOTE]

I mean why not Turkey they are doing HSR pretty quickly not asking for Pakistan to start setting HSR projects but thats down the road type of stuff, plus I think first the RCD train that connects Iran,Turkey,Pakistan should be expanded and infrastructure upgraded on the Pakistani side