We here would think differently. Pakistan foreign policy regarding India has almost the appearance of talks for the sake of talks. There is no real set agenda, not even a proposal on how to begin the talks. Risking talks as such is a meaningless exercise that serves no real purpose other than to invite attacks on Indians.
But that aside, I wanted to engage you in a discussion regarding the developments in Kashmir and how we think it will evolve in medium term, and what will be its implications for the region, the two countries, and most importantly, for the Kashmiris themselves. I wanted to do it last time around too, but am almost always running short on time.
Dispute the first paragraph, since we have historical proof that talks have nearly led to solutions with smart thinking from both sides; where they have been sabotaged is by hardliners not willing to give up their stake in the process and associated importance.
No one is going to listen to swami if peace comes, what enemy will he spread hate against? What will Zaid Hamid do?
Let think of military terms, since Indians like to bring up Pakistan Army as some overlord. What was Kargil after all? It was one man and his cabal’s attempt at securing military glory before talks solved a major issue and made them irrelevant.
Would there still not be such aspirants today in both armies?
To quote Ashoka Kunjoor
“Hum ko jo taane dete hain, ham khoye hain in rang-raliyon mein
Hum ne un ko bhi chhup chhup ke aate dekhaa in galiyon mein”
While the influence in governance is/was not comparable until recently, there have been hardliners in the India military and bureaucrats who have sabotaged peace right when it was tangible.
I have the fortune of knowing Indian Kashmiri muslims through my education who less than five years ago were focused on India as their country, India as their economic future, India as their land and India as their passport.
Today I am barely able to reach them on whatsapp and when I do they are extremely cynical about ever letting the current angst go. They are realistic about options, but are confident that the fight for their rights and socio-economic independence will go on, militant or not.
That should sum up what is the near medium term. What was a half hearted attempt with a militant effort led by a mix of punjabi and Azad Kashmir boys is now getting local recruits who are then killing any locals loyal to the Kashmir government. This is textbook growing insurgency from what was a few years ago a quelled one. And before one blames Pakistan on it, there were MUCH more open borders along the LoC after 71 till the late 90’s yet nothing took off. It wasn’t until the population was targeted in lieu of killing militancy that the insurgency took hold. The advent of inclusiveness and tighter border control in the last decade had again calmed down the vallet until this current religious extremist government took steps that ignited the support.
Insurgencies arent quelled by killing Burhan Wanis, they are killed by arresting him and then giving jobs to his family.
