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Originally published in The Inflectionist - UK (05 Feb, 2015)
The United States has recently succeeded in confusing the world, following its positional shifts regarding the Taliban. Since 9/11, the Taliban have been enemy number one in the War on Terror, primarily for providing safe haven to terrorist organizations and for carrying out their own attacks on the Afghan government. With the recent statements that the US government will no longer be seeking to neutralize Mullah Omar, the leader of the Taliban, and with the announcement only days ago that the Afghan Taliban will no longer be considered terrorists, the US has set a policy that is in direct conflict not only with its own strategy, but with the potential peace of the entire region.
For those who live in Afghanistan and Pakistan, the Afghan Taliban is nothing short of a terrorist organization, providing safe haven and material support to groups including Lashkar-e-Taiba, al-Qaeda and ISIS, while they continue terrorist attacks on the government in Kabul. It cannot be seen by citizens in this region as a productive move for the US government to take a step back from a known terror infrastructure.
There are two ways to consider this positional change. The first is that this is an attempt by the United States to recognize the Taliban as a legitimate political force in Afghanistan, which calls the entire War on Terror into question. By recognizing this group as a legitimate political force, the USA may be attempting to bring the Taliban to the negotiation table with the new Ghani government in order to re-instate a semblance of peace to the country. The US government should be aware, however, that the Taliban is not a trustworthy partner in the peace process. Former President Karzai on numerous occasions attempted to play a double game with the US and court the Taliban to stabilize his regime, only to find that the Taliban does what it wants, when it wants. Giving the Taliban the legitimacy of a political force works against the interests of the Ghani government and all the countries in the region, giving the possibility of peace and stability little chance of success.
The second way to consider this positional change is that this is being done at the request of the new regime in Saudi Arabia. While the announcement about Mullah Omar was made prior to the visit, all analysts in the region know that the Saudis hold a great deal of sway over US foreign policy, being their only official ally in the Middle East. As the world watched, the Saudis played the lead role in lobbying the United States and other Western powers for the invasion of Syria, leading to the creation of the Free Syrian Army and ISIS; the installation of the semi-military government of el-Sissi in Egypt, which led to the release of Mubarak, a long time US ally; and the use of US military forces against ISIS in Iraq. Given their recent influence, it would be no surprise if the Saudis were behind this positional shift, since they have long been financial and diplomatic supporters of the Taliban leadership and mission.
This also creates a dilemma for Pakistan and China, who have been asked to be Afghanistan’s partners in the peace and rebuilding process by the United States and other Western powers. Pakistan, who is currently fighting a prolonged war on the Afghan border with the TTP terrorist group, has regularly asked the Afghan government to assist in eliminating the safe havens on their side of the border where injured terrorists and weapons depots are available under the Taliban’s protection. This positional change will make it difficult for President Ghani of Afghanistan to take meaningful steps against the TTP. Secondly, China has earmarked millions in funding to assist in the rebuilding and stabilization of Afghanistan, taking up the mantle that was once held by India during the Karzai government. China has long stood firmly by Pakistan in the fight against terrorism, offering military and material support to eliminate the scourge of TTP. Such allegiance has now come under threat.
While the reasons and rationale for this decision by the Obama government are unclear to most in any of the affected governments, this is a major policy shift for the War on Terror and greatly effects the on-going fight against terror groups in the region, as well as the future stability and growth of Afghanistan under President Ghani.
One can’t help but wonder if the Saudi Arabian and Indian governments have used their influence over the United States to keep the Taliban in play, rather than allowing the respective governments to finally find peace in the region.
The United States has recently succeeded in confusing the world, following its positional shifts regarding the Taliban. Since 9/11, the Taliban have been enemy number one in the War on Terror, primarily for providing safe haven to terrorist organizations and for carrying out their own attacks on the Afghan government. With the recent statements that the US government will no longer be seeking to neutralize Mullah Omar, the leader of the Taliban, and with the announcement only days ago that the Afghan Taliban will no longer be considered terrorists, the US has set a policy that is in direct conflict not only with its own strategy, but with the potential peace of the entire region.
For those who live in Afghanistan and Pakistan, the Afghan Taliban is nothing short of a terrorist organization, providing safe haven and material support to groups including Lashkar-e-Taiba, al-Qaeda and ISIS, while they continue terrorist attacks on the government in Kabul. It cannot be seen by citizens in this region as a productive move for the US government to take a step back from a known terror infrastructure.
There are two ways to consider this positional change. The first is that this is an attempt by the United States to recognize the Taliban as a legitimate political force in Afghanistan, which calls the entire War on Terror into question. By recognizing this group as a legitimate political force, the USA may be attempting to bring the Taliban to the negotiation table with the new Ghani government in order to re-instate a semblance of peace to the country. The US government should be aware, however, that the Taliban is not a trustworthy partner in the peace process. Former President Karzai on numerous occasions attempted to play a double game with the US and court the Taliban to stabilize his regime, only to find that the Taliban does what it wants, when it wants. Giving the Taliban the legitimacy of a political force works against the interests of the Ghani government and all the countries in the region, giving the possibility of peace and stability little chance of success.
The second way to consider this positional change is that this is being done at the request of the new regime in Saudi Arabia. While the announcement about Mullah Omar was made prior to the visit, all analysts in the region know that the Saudis hold a great deal of sway over US foreign policy, being their only official ally in the Middle East. As the world watched, the Saudis played the lead role in lobbying the United States and other Western powers for the invasion of Syria, leading to the creation of the Free Syrian Army and ISIS; the installation of the semi-military government of el-Sissi in Egypt, which led to the release of Mubarak, a long time US ally; and the use of US military forces against ISIS in Iraq. Given their recent influence, it would be no surprise if the Saudis were behind this positional shift, since they have long been financial and diplomatic supporters of the Taliban leadership and mission.
This also creates a dilemma for Pakistan and China, who have been asked to be Afghanistan’s partners in the peace and rebuilding process by the United States and other Western powers. Pakistan, who is currently fighting a prolonged war on the Afghan border with the TTP terrorist group, has regularly asked the Afghan government to assist in eliminating the safe havens on their side of the border where injured terrorists and weapons depots are available under the Taliban’s protection. This positional change will make it difficult for President Ghani of Afghanistan to take meaningful steps against the TTP. Secondly, China has earmarked millions in funding to assist in the rebuilding and stabilization of Afghanistan, taking up the mantle that was once held by India during the Karzai government. China has long stood firmly by Pakistan in the fight against terrorism, offering military and material support to eliminate the scourge of TTP. Such allegiance has now come under threat.
While the reasons and rationale for this decision by the Obama government are unclear to most in any of the affected governments, this is a major policy shift for the War on Terror and greatly effects the on-going fight against terror groups in the region, as well as the future stability and growth of Afghanistan under President Ghani.
One can’t help but wonder if the Saudi Arabian and Indian governments have used their influence over the United States to keep the Taliban in play, rather than allowing the respective governments to finally find peace in the region.
