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Xi Jinping calls for ‘new Long March’ in dramatic sign that China is preparing for protracted trade

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Xi Jinping calls for ‘new Long March’ in dramatic sign that China is preparing for protracted trade war

Xi Jinping told cheering crowds in Jiangxi: ‘We are now embarking on a new Long March, and we must start all over again’

His comments come amid an increasingly sour mood in official Chinese media, which have become more forceful in anti-US rhetoric since trade war talks collapsed

Zhou Xin

Published: 8:24pm, 21 May, 2019


Chinese President Xi Jinping lays a floral basket at a monument marking the departure point of the Long March in Yudu county, Ganzhou, in Jiangxi province. Photo: Xinhua

Chinese President Xi Jinping has called for the nation to embark on a new Long March and “start all over again”, in the most dramatic sign to date that Beijing has given up hope of reaching a trade deal with the United States in the near term.

Xi is in Jiangxi province for his first domestic tour since the escalation of the trade war two weeks ago. Jiangxi is where China’s defeated Red Army started its fabled Long March in 1934, and Xi’s choice of destination is being viewed as an effort to invoke a spirit of endurance and to rally public spirit amid rising tensions with Washington.
“We are here at the starting point of the Long March to remember the time when the Red Army began its journey,”

Xi told cheering crowds on Monday, in footage posted on state broadcaster CCTV’s website on Tuesday. “We are now embarking on a new Long March, and we must start all over again.”

While Xi did not directly mention the trade war or the United States, his remarks are being perceived as clear signals that the Chinese public is being told to prepare for hardships because of the worsening external environment.

The economy is already slowing and the trade war could trim as much as 1 per cent from its gross domestic product, Wang Yang, one of the seven members of the elite Politburo Standing Committee of the Communist Party of China, said last week.

Vice-Premier Liu He, China’s top trade negotiator, accompanied Xi for the tour and is clearly visible at the president’s side in video footage of the tour.

On Monday, Xi also visited one of the country’s major rare earth mining and processing facilities amid speculation that China could ban rare earth exports to the US in retaliation for trade war escalation, as it did to Japan a decade ago.

Trump and Xi have a personal stake in ending the trade war

The Long March was a military retreat between 1934 to 1936 undertaken by the Red Army, the forerunner of the People’s Liberation Army, to evade Kuomintang troops during the Chinese civil war. The thousands of marchers covered some of the country’s harshest terrain and the feat is often evoked as a symbol of Chinese unity by the ruling Communist Party.

Xi’s message was delivered at a time when the country’s official media outlets have adopted increasingly nationalistic tones in relation to the trade war and broader Sino-US relations. However, media reports have stopped short of directly criticising US President Donald Trump.

A long article by the official Xinhua News Agency on Monday claimed that “bullying by the US side” was the cause of the failed trade talks.

“The People’s Republic [of China] has been standing tall in the East for the last 70 years, it has never lowered its head and it has never feared anyone,” Xinhua said. “History will prove again that bullying and threats by the US will not work.”

Trump is just following a long US tradition with tariffs on China

Xinhua followed this up on Tuesday with a report of Xi’s tour, saying that “every generation has its own long march”. It did not mention the trade war.

China has officially kept the door open to future trade talks, but no new talks have been scheduled. Technical work, such as document drafting and translation, largely ceased after the two sides failed to reach a final agreement in the 11th round of talks earlier in May, according to two sources who were briefed on the situation.

China warned last Friday that there was no point in holding more talks if the US was not “sincere” in wanting to achieve a fair outcome.

“The message is clear: China is ready to fight a protracted trade war,” said one source.

The US government’s decision last week to place Chinese technology firm Huawei and its affiliates on a trading black list has strengthened a perception in Beijing that the US is pursuing a broad strategy to thwart China’s rise, leaving little room for China to compromise on any front.

Beijing resumed its tit-for-tat approach in exchanging additional tariffs with the US and state media has pledged to fight “to the end” in the trade battle. Days after the US raised tariffs on US$200 billion of Chinese imports to 25 per cent from 10 per cent, Beijing said it would raise duties on US$60 billion of American goods on June 1.

At the same time, Chinese scholars are openly suggesting other ways Beijing could retaliate against the US. Jin Canrong, a professor of international relations at Renmin University in Beijing, wrote an article last week suggesting China could ban rare earth mineral exports to the US.

These contain elements that are vital for many hi-tech products, and China accounts for 90 per cent of global production. China could also start dumping its vast holdings of US treasuries, Jin wrote, even though conventional wisdom suggests this would hurt China more than the US.

In addition, Beijing could close its market to major US firms such as General Motors and Apple, which derive significant portions of their global profits from sales in China, Jin noted.The Chinese government has said it would be forced take “necessary countermeasures” against the US in response to the US raising tariffs on May 10, although Beijing has to date stopped short of further escalation, apart from its own reciprocal tariff raise.

The Chinese public’s expectation of a near-term trade deal with US, however, has been replaced by a growing confrontational spirit.

Sue Trinh, a strategist with Royal Bank of Canada in Hong Kong, wrote in note on Tuesday that there has been “a significant nationalist shift in Chinese rhetoric” regarding the trade war, particularly the use of militaristic imagery terminology in official media.

An opinion piece in the state-run Global Times last Friday argued that Beijing is in no hurry to end the trade war because China is more capable of withstanding the ensuing pain than the US.
“In the best scenario, China would become more adaptable and cut our reliance on the US market for good,” the editorial said.

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3011186/xi-jinping-calls-ne
 
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...Xi told cheering crowds on Monday, in footage posted on state broadcaster CCTV’s website on Tuesday. “We are now embarking on a new Long March, and we must start all over again.”...
“The message is clear: China is ready to fight a protracted trade war,” said one source...

...The Chinese public’s expectation of a near-term trade deal with US, however, has been replaced by a growing confrontational spirit...

...An opinion piece in the state-run Global Times last Friday argued that Beijing is in no hurry to end the trade war because China is more capable of withstanding the ensuing pain than the US.
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May 20, 2019
China's Tariff List Advertises Its Trade War Weakness

President Donald Trump obviously overstated the case when he claimed that a trade war with China would be “easy to win.”


by Alan Tonelson

Unless Chinese leader Xi Jinping and his advisors are completely incompetent, there’s only one way to interpret Beijing’s list of U.S. products that will be slapped with retaliatory tariffs on June 1 if the trade war with the United States isn’t somehow deescalated pronto: China increasingly realizes that it’s playing a losing hand in the trade war, and its counter-moves have been made mainly for public consumption in China.

After all, the ostensible purpose of retaliation is inflicting enough pain on the target to change behavior. Therefore, you’d think that most of the new China tariffs would hit products that generate major earnings either for the entire U.S. economy or for key political constituencies (as with the previous import taxes on soybeans). But according to a compilation by Quartz.com, few of the goods scheduled by China to take the biggest (25 percent) tariff hits merit these definitions. Indeed, many aren’t even made in the United States anymore, or certainly not in meaningful quantities, much less exported to any measurable extent to China.

If you doubt that such items are found on China’s list, then check out the following American-made products that Quartz contends will get hit by those steepest Chinese tariffs, and the dollar value of their exports to the People’s Republic in 2018. They are ostensibly judged to contain the greatest economic and/or political shock potential.

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Women’s swimsuits: $2,542.

Miscellaneous knitted or crocheted fabrics: $2,893.

Men and boys’ underwear: $229,455.

Men and boys’ wool/animal hair trousers: $49,629.

Men and boys’ overcoats: $4,900.

Men’s silk ties: $11,214.

Cotton baby clothes and accessories: $13,224.

Synthetic baby clothes and accessories: $10,922.

Ski boots with rubber/plastic soles: $8,100.

Cotton printed sheets: $3,680.


Miscellaneous mulberry silk: $7,306.

Carbon paper: $62,096.

Bamboo mats and screens: $8,710.

Calendars: $12,620.

Porcelain or china household toilet articles: $8,000.

Articles of natural or cultured pearls: $7,188.


Miscellaneous non-electric household appliances: $19,355.

Cast iron bathtubs: $61,790.

Picks, spades, and rakes: $6,120.


Household dish washing machines: $5,388.

Sewing machine needles: $6,100.

Non-electronic calculators: $6,800.

Electronic calculators: $27,690.

Microwave ovens: $205,682.

Cordless phones: $94,849.

Phonograph turntables: $1,192,612.

Plastic eyeglass frames: $189,758.

Binoculars: $201,779.

Instant print cameras: $191,105.

Rattan seats: $4,232.

Christmas tree lights: $159,967.

Other Christmas articles: $199,416.

Badmitton or similar rackets: $2,561.

Miscellaneous toy balls: $16,746.

Folding umbrellas: $23,180.

Synthetic wigs, fake beards, eyebrows, and eyelashes: $114,165.

Harpsichords and similar musical instruments: $88,165.

Uncooked egg noodles: $9,859.

Soy sauce: $212,883.

Your eyes aren’t deceiving you. These totals are not in billions of dollars, or hundreds of millions of dollars, or—with one exception—even in millions of dollars. They’re in thousands of dollars.

Now, it’s true that lots of the industries turning out these products are no doubt tiny, niche industries. So, it's possible that although these China exports are tiny in absolute terms, they’re a big share of their total sales or profits.

But then again, they’re niche industries. As a result, by definition, they’re almost completely inconsequential in terms of American growth and employment.

As mentioned by some of the press coverage, there’s evidence that China has concentrated the tariffs in the agriculture sector and the chemicals sector—obviously two very big parts of the American economy. But if you look in detail at Beijing’s tariff list, what’s most striking is how few major U.S. export categories are affected.

For example, take a look at chemicals (and chemical products). Nineteen sub-sectors in this grouping generated at least $100 million in U.S. exports to China last year. Their total sales to the People’s Republic were just under $5.24 billion—about 44 percent of the total $11.80 billion worth of 2018 American chemical and chemicals-related shipments to China. Three types of chemical products will clearly be subjected to tariffs: makeup and skincare preparations, certain kinds of photographic film, and ethylbenzene. Their total exports to China in 2018 fell slightly short of $745 million. That’s only 6.31 percent of all 2018 U.S. exports to China in these sectors, and less than one half of one percent of America’s $159.13 billion in total chemicals and chemicals-related exports last year.

Numerous other chemicals and chemicals-related sectors have been targeted for China tariffs, too. But taken together, the numbers simply don’t move the needle on a part of the American economy that had a total output hit of $354 billion in 2017 (the last year for which data is available).

These groupings do not exhaust the list of American-made goods that China has said will meet 25 percent tariffs when they arrive at Chinese ports and airports. Beijing hasn’t given out the exact numbers yet, but the total could conceivably be in the tens of billions of dollars. According to the Chinese, $60 billion of American exports will be tariffed at various rates, including the 25 percent. That accounts for about 60 percent of American sales to the PRC at an annualized rate so far this year.

But based on what we know, what’s even more revealing about China’s choices are the U.S.-made products that haven’t made any tariff list. They include civilian aircraft and their engines and parts, which had a 2018 export total of $17.73 billion. They include semiconductors and their components, which last year had China shipments that totaled several billion additional dollars. They include the equipment needed to manufacture and inspect semiconductors and their parts, which racked up at least $850 million in 2018 exports to China; devices for conducting chemical and physical analyses (with $912 million in China exports last year); laser equipment ($304 million), motor vehicles, auto parts, and plastics resins and polymers (which each produced billions in exports to China); and billions of dollars’ worth of other products that the Chinese either can’t (yet) make or can’t make in the amounts that they need—or that consist of goods preferred by Chinese consumers over their Made in China counterparts.

America’s tariff lists for Chinese goods have contained any number of obscure, exotic products as well. But from the start, they’ve been dominated by products valued highly by China’s leaders for their industrial and technological importance—especially those covered by the Made in China 2025 program aimed at achieving Chinese global dominance throughout advanced manufacturing and information technology sectors. Subsequently, the Trump administration has added the kinds of consumer products on which the PRC relies heavily for both export earnings and its own domestic employment.

President Donald Trump obviously overstated the case when he claimed that a trade war with China would be “easy to win.” In particular, previous Chinese retaliatory moves, like those tariffs on soybeans and other farm products, damaged American agriculture and produced howls of pain throughout rural areas that generally have been Trump’s political strongholds.

But released in response to Trump’s recent—and perhaps least expected—escalation of the trade war, the latest Chinese tariff list undoubtedly aimed to underscore China’s economic strength and resilience. And in principle, there could be more to come from Beijing, both in scale and scope. The most accurate description of China’s new announcement, though, is a confession of weakness—and a confirmation that Trump has read the bilateral economic balance of power exactly right.
 
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look at the positive side - no reference to Cultural Revolution or Great Leap Forward :enjoy:
 
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