Xi: Chinese Foreign Policy Under a Powerful but Exposed Leader

[William Hung]

From Council on Foreign Relations:

http://www.cfr.org/china/xi-jinping-global-stage/p37569

Xi Jinping on the Global Stage
Chinese Foreign Policy Under a Powerful but Exposed Leader

Author: Robert D. Blackwill


In light of China's deepening economic slowdown, "China's foreign policy may well be driven increasingly by the risk of domestic political instability," write Robert D. Blackwill,Henry A. Kissinger senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), andKurt M. Campbell, the Asia Group's chairman and chief executive officer, in a new Council Special Report. "Economic growth and nationalism have for decades been the two founts of legitimacy for the Communist Party, and as the former wanes, [Chinese leader Xi Jinping] will likely rely increasingly on the latter."

Xi's "dominance of the decision-making process [has] made him a powerful but potentially exposed leader," the authors note. To protect his position, Xi will "most probably stimulate and intensify Chinese nationalism—long a pillar of the state's legitimacy—to compensate for the political harm of a slower economy, to distract the public, to halt rivals who might use nationalist criticisms against him, and to burnish his own image."

The report—Xi Jinping on the Global Stage: Chinese Foreign Policy Under a Powerful but Exposed Leader—notes that China's economy, which had expanded at an annual rate of 10 percent for three decades, is entering a new era of considerably slower growth.

To strengthen his position at home, Xi "will probably intensify his personality cult, crack down even harder on dissent, and grow bolder in using the anticorruption campaign against elites who oppose him." Internationally, Xi "may provoke disputes with neighbors, use increasingly strident rhetoric in defense of China's national interests, and take a tougher line in relations with the United States and its allies to shift public focus away from economic troubles."

Free full PDF file of the report in the link.

Very good analysis. It’s also a common view in Vietnamese academic/political circles. Xi ’s foreign policy is regarded as unstable and unreliable due to his paranoia over losing domestic legitimacy and power.

@JaiMin @Cao Đài @Cossack25A1 @LeveragedBuyout

 

[Cossack25A1]

The CCP always looks for reasons to make sure that their legitimacy is never questioned, and the rapid development of China is used as one of the basis for their legitimacy because they know that sooner or later, the Chinese people will begin to question them is no development occurs.

Another way to make sure the people never question the CCP's legitimacy are the territorial disputes; that China must appear to be strong and never bow down to other countries, thus the CCP decides to build those islands and ignoring the condemnation of other countries.

The modernization of the PLA also comes in mind.

Another possible way to prevent the questioning is the Century of Humiliation, where China was beaten by European (including Tsarist Russia) and USA, from the Opium Wars up to the Boxer Rebellion (and even WW2 if we add the Japanese)

As for Xi Jinping, as far as I have read, he is a "Princeling / Party's Crown Prince."

 

[xunzi]

Overanalysis and comical. Let us remind, if there is no smoke, there is no fire.

 

[sweetgrape]

Hehe, the report cater to many China hater favor, happy you like it, enjoy it.

In the world, too much genuis, stay at home, can know the "fact", China is a big elephant, only staying in the cage, will be liked.

And, seem a huge of foreigner, especially American, Japanese, Vietnamese and phillippine don't like him, well, question is, he is Chinese leader, you liking or not is not important, attacking against Xi will make him get more support from Chinese,

 

[cnleio]

ppl just like reading "The Collapse of China" theory

 

[Beidou2020]

LOL Viets and Pinoys are coming up with all kinds of reasons to soothe their bruised egos as China builds in the SCS.

Xi is a Chinese patriot. A hardliner. He is doing what other Chinese leaders should have done. As China's power rises and its capabilities increase, it can push its weight around.

China being assertive will now be the norm, not the exception. It won't be just in the SCS either.

 

[Dungeness]

Some people need their daily dose of "China Collapse" pills to get by, and some people made a living making "China Collapse" pills.

 

[William Hung]

Overanalysis and comical. Let us remind, if there is no smoke, there is no fire.

My friend, the report contains a very very very simple analysis, it might be considered too simple and commonsensical. Not sure why you would consider it an overanalysis.

ppl just like reading "The Collapse of China" theory

Some people need their daily dose of "China Collapse" pills to get by, and some people made a living making "China Collapse" pills.

My friends, I hope “China collapse” is not always on your mind. The report doesn’t say anything about China collapsing.

Hehe, the report cater to many China hater favor, happy you like it, enjoy it.

In the world, too much genuis, stay at home, can know the "fact", China is a big elephant, only staying in the cage, will be liked.

And, seem a huge of foreigner, especially American, Japanese, Vietnamese and phillippine don't like him, well, question is, he is Chinese leader, you liking or not is not important, attacking against Xi will make him get more support from Chinese,

Please be more open-minded and learn how to see the world through a more mature lens. “A hates me, B likes me, C hates me but D likes me and I don’t care if E hates me” is a very juvenile way of seeing the world, which would be quite normal if we were 6 years old children in an elementary school setting. Now that we have grown up, please learn to see and interpret the world in a more complicated way.

The CCP always looks for reasons to make sure that their legitimacy is never questioned, and the rapid development of China is used as one of the basis for their legitimacy because they know that sooner or later, the Chinese people will begin to question them is no development occurs.

Another way to make sure the people never question the CCP's legitimacy are the territorial disputes; that China must appear to be strong and never bow down to other countries, thus the CCP decides to build those islands and ignoring the condemnation of other countries.

The modernization of the PLA also comes in mind.

Another possible way to prevent the questioning is the Century of Humiliation, where China was beaten by European (including Tsarist Russia) and USA, from the Opium Wars up to the Boxer Rebellion (and even WW2 if we add the Japanese)

As for Xi Jinping, as far as I have read, he is a "Princeling / Party's Crown Prince."

I used to think that an armed conflict in Asia, even just a small one, is out of the question. I am beginning to see more and more influential people (such as US think tanks) considering it as real possibilities. That’s the interesting thing, regardless if Xi will start trouble or not, just seeing how decision-makers from other countries are making contingency plans for such outcome is interesting. Contingency planning is normal and is expected, but when a number of countries share the same analysis, thats when their contingency plan gets interesting. I can now see very interesting and surprising developments in the region, especially w.r.t. the US being a welcomed player in the Asia region and the strengthening of its military partnership with many countries in the region. These kind of reports are interesting because it may give hints to the rationale behind such developments.

 

[xunzi]

My friend, the report contains a very very very simple analysis, it might be considered too simple and commonsensical. Not sure why you would consider it an overanalysis.

My friend, you don't have to overanalyze anything. Let keep it simple. As our enemy, you can make any excuse as much as you want but don't expect the Chinese people to give up our national territorial integrity. By doing so will have a nasty ending for any party. As far as what is going on in the dispute, please allow me to remind you that this is a "read and react" from our perspective. Who was the one causing trouble and breaking the status quo in East Asia Diaoyu dispute and who was the one that militarizing the SCS? It certainly wasn't us, my lovely friend. LOL

 

[Abacin]

The problem is that most foreign experts haven't read Chinese history. If they could take a look at Chinese Han Dynasty history with external nomadic threat Huns. After bearing many humiliations for some emperors to improve the economy, Wu Emperor reversed the policy and started aggressively against Huns with its followers. Then after hundreds of years' continuous wars and zigzags, China annihilated most followers and Huns had to flee to the West.

Almost all Chinese know that We are repeating the history, but very few foreign experts have talked about. This just shows how ignorant the West is in understanding China. Maybe This is due to the difficulty in understanding Chinese and heavy reliance on revolution losers such as Hong Kong and Taiwan experts. Since Mao took the leadership of CCP, the West almost always made a wrong bet.

The Taiwan Relation Act is very humiliating to most Chinese. In Chinese history, foreign intervention is always treated as very and very bad. The external humiliation always help China solidify greatly to solve the threat. Chinese dynasty usually only collapsed without external threat. Then we would start fighting internally and break up solidarity easily.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

It's actually the opposite.

If Xi is truly being aggressive, that is because of his full and absolute confidence.

 

[sweetgrape]

Please be more open-minded and learn how to see the world through a more mature lens. “A hates me, B likes me, C hates me but D likes me and I don’t care if E hates me” is a very juvenile way of seeing the world, which would be quite normal if we were 6 years old children in an elementary school setting. Now that we have grown up, please learn to see and interpret the world in a more complicated way.

Of course, we are more open-minded than you Vietnamese, do you believe that?

Seems you go through more thing than China, in the world, more article and opinion on China than Vietnam, no need you tell me the sense, you see me as a 6 years old children, If I told you, you are, do you believe that?

In the world, too many and much information, different opinions, when you just walk out to see the world, you are curious about the world, accept most of all of them, think it can help, as long time go, you will find, most of thing is not worth reading and caring, take the article you post for example, you Vietnamese and other China hater like, but for our most of Chinese, this are sh1t, don't know whether you understand? or as time go, you will, kid.