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KABULCoalition-building for Afghanistan's presidential election is culminating this week, with a handful of likely front-runners emerging ahead of Sunday's registration deadline and the line between the president's allies and opponents becoming increasingly blurry.
President Hamid Karzai isn't allowed to stand for a third term in the April election. His successor would oversee a critical period in Afghanistan's history, as U.S.-led coalition troops withdraw, foreign aid declines and the Taliban insurgency seeks to regain power.
If it is conducted successfully, despite Taliban violence and fears of fraud, the election would help secure continued international backing for the Afghan government and would mark the country's first democratic transfer of power.
"This is an election that everyone is waiting for. Every Afghan's life depends on this election," said Ziaulhaq Amarkhil, the country's chief electoral officer. "If we have a good election, we will have a good government. And if we have a good government, we will fight against corruption and bring peace to this country."
While many Afghan politicians and foreign diplomats voice private concerns that the election might be scrapped because of widening violence or Mr. Karzai's reluctance to relinquish power, preparations for the vote are going ahead. Candidates for Afghan president and the two vice-presidential posts must resign from the government and parliament by Sunday.
One of the more prominent presidential aspirants, Mr. Karzai's transition adviser and former finance minister Ashraf Ghani, announced his resignation Monday. "I'll be entering the race," Mr. Ghani said in an interview. "What I'll bring is a balance between continuity and change, something that escaped us for the last 94 years," the period since Afghanistan became independent.
In multiethnic Afghanistan, where no single community has an absolute majority, presidential hopefuls have traditionally sought to build support across ethnic lines. Mr. Karzai, an ethnic Pashtun, ran both times with an ethnic Tajik as his first vice president and an ethnic Hazara as his second vice president.
This time coalition talks are centering on choosing the highest-profile running mates who would garner such multiethnic backing.
For the most prominent opposition candidate, former Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah, who is of mixed Tajik and Pashtun descent but is widely viewed as a Tajik, the challenge is to sign on a high-profile Pashtun candidate for first vice president.
For the two candidates close to Mr. Karzai, Foreign Minister Zalmai Rassoul and the president's brother Qayum Karzai, the main priority is to locate prominent Tajik running mates. Mr. Ghani also hasn't yet picked vice-presidential nominees.
"Vice-presidential candidates in fact represent a political deal, cementing the coalition politically," said Haneef Atmar, a former interior minister who is considering a presidential run or backing a candidate he sees as reformist, such as Messrs. Rassoul or Ghani.By searching for running mates, candidates are conducting a de facto public opinion survey, gauging their own electability, he said.
The one candidate who has had the most success garnering prominent backers so far is Mr. Abdullah, who came in second after Mr. Karzai in the 2009 election, with 30.6% of the national vote. He was expected to announce his ticket as soon as Tuesday, aides said.
In recent weeks, Mr. Abdullah secured the support of some of Afghanistan's power brokers and former warlords.They include Mr. Karzai's current first vice president, Marshal Mohammed Fahim, the governor of northern Balkh province, Mohammed Atta Noor, and the former emir of western Afghanistan, Ismail Khan, who is now minister of electricity and water.
Mr. Abdullah also signed up former Hazara warlord Mohammed Mohaqeq as his second vice president, an agreement that was brokered by Mr. Atta, according to aides. The Hazara community, some 9% of the population, votes in high numbers, and Mr. Mohaqeq's backing of Mr. Karzai in 2009 was instrumental in the president's re-election.
Mr. Mohaqeq was the biggest Hazara catch available; his main Hazara rival, current Vice President Karim Khalili, isn't eligible to run again.
Mr. Abdullah, however, has yet to find a high-profile Pashtun vice president. Economy Minister Abdul Hadi Arghandiwal, who heads the legal wing of the Hezb-e-Islami party founded by warlord Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, has demurred at his offer, proposing one of his deputies for the ticket.
Though Mr. Karzai has often said he isn't backing any particular candidate, he has repeatedly named Mr. Rassoul, his septuagenarian foreign minister, as a likely successor. Opponents say Mr. Rassoul is a figurehead who, if elected, would allow Mr. Karzai, only 55 years old, to govern from behind the scenes, and who would pave a return to a Karzai presidency five years lateras did Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Mr. Rassoul, who descends from noble Pashtun lineage and studied as a medical doctor in France, has also attracted the backing of some of the country's more reform-minded technocrats, including some who have broken with Mr. Karzaiin another crossover between government and opposition.
Mr. Rassoul's backers in recent days were hopeful that they could persuade a leading Tajik opposition politician, former parliament speaker Yunus Qanooni, to join their ticket as the first vice president. Mr. Qanooni, however, turned down these overtures and instead threw his support behind Mr. Abdullah, said his aide Ghulam Seddiq Qadiri.
"People say that, with Rassoul, Karzai would last 15 more yearsfive indirectly, and then 10 directly again," said Homayoun Assefy, a senior aide to Mr. Abdullah who ran as his first vice-presidential candidate in the 2009 elections. "Rassoul is a man from a good family, gentle and civilized, but one who has never done politics." Mr. Rassoul's backers said he would be a reform-minded leader determined to stamp out corruption.
President Karzai also said on several occasions that he has urged his older brother Qayum, a U.S. green-card holder with a restaurant business in Maryland, not to run for the presidency.
Many senior Afghan politiciansincluding those backing Mr. Rassoulsaid they doubt those assertions. They are fretting that such statements are meant for foreign consumption, and that the president would end up throwing the weight of Afghanistan's government machinery behind his own kin. "Do you really think Karzai would be able to turn against his own brother?" one Afghan politician asked.
The president's other brother, Mahmood Karzai, who is running Qayum's campaign, said in an interview that Qayum would file his nomination papers by Saturday, and that negotiations over possible support with the president were still under way.
Mahmood Karzai said his brother Qayum plans to run as the candidate of change, aiming to spur economic development, bring peace, restore justice and curb corruption.
"This is a criminal enterprise, not a government," Mahmood said. As for Mr. Rassoul, Mahmood dismissed him as representing the status quo. "His campaign is basically in the corridors of the executive branch, not with the public," Mahmood said.
Mahmood Karzai declined to say who Qayum's vice-presidential candidates would be, but said that the team wasn't looking for famous warlords. "If you're looking for a paper tiger, it's very difficult because there are few," he said. "But if you're looking for people who believe in the future of this country and not the past, who will be reform-minded it is easy."
Other presidential hopefuls are also preparing to submit nominations this week, and could gather momentum and emerge among the front-runners in the months before the vote. The more prominent ones include former Islamist warlord Abdul Rasoul Sayyaf and former Defense Minister Abdul Rahim Wardak.
All of the candidates are courting the support of mercurial Uzbek leader Abdul Rashid Dostum, a former warlord who backed Mr. Karzai in 2009. The Uzbek community accounts for about one-tenth of Afghanistan's population, and much of it votes in accordance with Mr. Dostum's directions.
Mr. Dostum, however, has requested that the first vice president's post be reserved for an Uzbeka condition that none of the main candidates has agreed to accommodate so far.
Ehsanullah Amiri
contributed
KABULCoalition-building for Afghanistan's presidential election is culminating this week, with a handful of likely front-runners emerging ahead of Sunday's registration deadline and the line between the president's allies and opponents becoming increasingly blurry.
President Hamid Karzai isn't allowed to stand for a third term in the April election. His successor would oversee a critical period in Afghanistan's history, as U.S.-led coalition troops withdraw, foreign aid declines and the Taliban insurgency seeks to regain power.
If it is conducted successfully, despite Taliban violence and fears of fraud, the election would help secure continued international backing for the Afghan government and would mark the country's first democratic transfer of power.
"This is an election that everyone is waiting for. Every Afghan's life depends on this election," said Ziaulhaq Amarkhil, the country's chief electoral officer. "If we have a good election, we will have a good government. And if we have a good government, we will fight against corruption and bring peace to this country."
While many Afghan politicians and foreign diplomats voice private concerns that the election might be scrapped because of widening violence or Mr. Karzai's reluctance to relinquish power, preparations for the vote are going ahead. Candidates for Afghan president and the two vice-presidential posts must resign from the government and parliament by Sunday.
One of the more prominent presidential aspirants, Mr. Karzai's transition adviser and former finance minister Ashraf Ghani, announced his resignation Monday. "I'll be entering the race," Mr. Ghani said in an interview. "What I'll bring is a balance between continuity and change, something that escaped us for the last 94 years," the period since Afghanistan became independent.
In multiethnic Afghanistan, where no single community has an absolute majority, presidential hopefuls have traditionally sought to build support across ethnic lines. Mr. Karzai, an ethnic Pashtun, ran both times with an ethnic Tajik as his first vice president and an ethnic Hazara as his second vice president.
This time coalition talks are centering on choosing the highest-profile running mates who would garner such multiethnic backing.
For the most prominent opposition candidate, former Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah, who is of mixed Tajik and Pashtun descent but is widely viewed as a Tajik, the challenge is to sign on a high-profile Pashtun candidate for first vice president.
For the two candidates close to Mr. Karzai, Foreign Minister Zalmai Rassoul and the president's brother Qayum Karzai, the main priority is to locate prominent Tajik running mates. Mr. Ghani also hasn't yet picked vice-presidential nominees.
"Vice-presidential candidates in fact represent a political deal, cementing the coalition politically," said Haneef Atmar, a former interior minister who is considering a presidential run or backing a candidate he sees as reformist, such as Messrs. Rassoul or Ghani.By searching for running mates, candidates are conducting a de facto public opinion survey, gauging their own electability, he said.
The one candidate who has had the most success garnering prominent backers so far is Mr. Abdullah, who came in second after Mr. Karzai in the 2009 election, with 30.6% of the national vote. He was expected to announce his ticket as soon as Tuesday, aides said.
In recent weeks, Mr. Abdullah secured the support of some of Afghanistan's power brokers and former warlords.They include Mr. Karzai's current first vice president, Marshal Mohammed Fahim, the governor of northern Balkh province, Mohammed Atta Noor, and the former emir of western Afghanistan, Ismail Khan, who is now minister of electricity and water.
Mr. Abdullah also signed up former Hazara warlord Mohammed Mohaqeq as his second vice president, an agreement that was brokered by Mr. Atta, according to aides. The Hazara community, some 9% of the population, votes in high numbers, and Mr. Mohaqeq's backing of Mr. Karzai in 2009 was instrumental in the president's re-election.
Mr. Mohaqeq was the biggest Hazara catch available; his main Hazara rival, current Vice President Karim Khalili, isn't eligible to run again.
Mr. Abdullah, however, has yet to find a high-profile Pashtun vice president. Economy Minister Abdul Hadi Arghandiwal, who heads the legal wing of the Hezb-e-Islami party founded by warlord Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, has demurred at his offer, proposing one of his deputies for the ticket.
Though Mr. Karzai has often said he isn't backing any particular candidate, he has repeatedly named Mr. Rassoul, his septuagenarian foreign minister, as a likely successor. Opponents say Mr. Rassoul is a figurehead who, if elected, would allow Mr. Karzai, only 55 years old, to govern from behind the scenes, and who would pave a return to a Karzai presidency five years lateras did Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Mr. Rassoul, who descends from noble Pashtun lineage and studied as a medical doctor in France, has also attracted the backing of some of the country's more reform-minded technocrats, including some who have broken with Mr. Karzaiin another crossover between government and opposition.
Mr. Rassoul's backers in recent days were hopeful that they could persuade a leading Tajik opposition politician, former parliament speaker Yunus Qanooni, to join their ticket as the first vice president. Mr. Qanooni, however, turned down these overtures and instead threw his support behind Mr. Abdullah, said his aide Ghulam Seddiq Qadiri.
"People say that, with Rassoul, Karzai would last 15 more yearsfive indirectly, and then 10 directly again," said Homayoun Assefy, a senior aide to Mr. Abdullah who ran as his first vice-presidential candidate in the 2009 elections. "Rassoul is a man from a good family, gentle and civilized, but one who has never done politics." Mr. Rassoul's backers said he would be a reform-minded leader determined to stamp out corruption.
President Karzai also said on several occasions that he has urged his older brother Qayum, a U.S. green-card holder with a restaurant business in Maryland, not to run for the presidency.
Many senior Afghan politiciansincluding those backing Mr. Rassoulsaid they doubt those assertions. They are fretting that such statements are meant for foreign consumption, and that the president would end up throwing the weight of Afghanistan's government machinery behind his own kin. "Do you really think Karzai would be able to turn against his own brother?" one Afghan politician asked.
The president's other brother, Mahmood Karzai, who is running Qayum's campaign, said in an interview that Qayum would file his nomination papers by Saturday, and that negotiations over possible support with the president were still under way.
Mahmood Karzai said his brother Qayum plans to run as the candidate of change, aiming to spur economic development, bring peace, restore justice and curb corruption.
"This is a criminal enterprise, not a government," Mahmood said. As for Mr. Rassoul, Mahmood dismissed him as representing the status quo. "His campaign is basically in the corridors of the executive branch, not with the public," Mahmood said.
Mahmood Karzai declined to say who Qayum's vice-presidential candidates would be, but said that the team wasn't looking for famous warlords. "If you're looking for a paper tiger, it's very difficult because there are few," he said. "But if you're looking for people who believe in the future of this country and not the past, who will be reform-minded it is easy."
Other presidential hopefuls are also preparing to submit nominations this week, and could gather momentum and emerge among the front-runners in the months before the vote. The more prominent ones include former Islamist warlord Abdul Rasoul Sayyaf and former Defense Minister Abdul Rahim Wardak.
All of the candidates are courting the support of mercurial Uzbek leader Abdul Rashid Dostum, a former warlord who backed Mr. Karzai in 2009. The Uzbek community accounts for about one-tenth of Afghanistan's population, and much of it votes in accordance with Mr. Dostum's directions.
Mr. Dostum, however, has requested that the first vice president's post be reserved for an Uzbeka condition that none of the main candidates has agreed to accommodate so far.
Ehsanullah Amiri
contributed
