World of Drones: Examining the proliferation, development, and use of armed drones

[The SC]

This In-Depth report from the International Security Program examines the proliferation, development, and use of armed drones. The World of Drones database draws upon media reports and other open source information to track which countries and non-state actors have armed drones or are in the process of developing them; which actors have used armed drones in combat; and which non-state actors are artificially equipping over-the-counter drones with improvised explosives like ISIS, or have obtained military-grade UAVs like Hezbollah.

1. Introduction: How We Became a World of Drones

Experts are still predicting that drones will change the character of warfare, but the reality is that warfare has already changed. The era of armed drone use has arrived, and the rapid proliferation of drone technology among states and militant groups alike poses a new threat to the international community.

Who has drones and how are they getting them? This site seeks to answer those questions, tracking which countries currently possess armed drones and how they acquired them, based on an analysis of hundreds of news reports and government documents.

So far, nine countries have used armed drones in combat: the United States, Israel, the United Kingdom, Pakistan, Iraq, Nigeria, Iran, Turkey, and Azerbaijan. But many other countries are arming drones.

In New America’s World of Drones database, countries are sorted into three groups: those that use drones in combat, those that possess armed drones but have not used them in combat, and those that are developing armed drones. A country’s drone capabilities are classified according to the U.S. Air Force tier system. Tier I includes low altitude, low endurance drones like the Orbiter; Tier II is comprised of medium altitude, long endurance drones like the Reaper or the Predator; and Tier II+ applies to high altitude, long endurance drones like the Global Hawk. Mini and micro drones are not classified in the tier system.


Imports and Exports of Drones

Click on a country to see its imports or exports


ExportersImportersArmeniaAustraliaAustriaBelarusCanadaChinaEstoniaFranceGermanyIsraelJapanMalaysiaNetherlandsRussiaSingaporeSouth AfricaSouth KoreaSwedenTurkeyUnited StatesAlgeriaAngolaAustraliaAustriaAzerbaijanBelarusBelgiumBoliviaBotswanaBrazilBurundiCanadaChileChinaColombiaCroatiaDenmarkEcuadorEgyptEstoniaEthiopiaFinlandFranceGeorgiaGermanyGreeceHungaryIndiaIndonesiaIraqItalyIvory CoastJapanJordanKazakhstanKenyaLebanonLibyaLithuaniaMalaysiaMexicoMoroccoNetherlandsNew ZealandNigeriaPakistanPanamaPeruPhilippinesPolandRepublic of SerbiaRomaniaRussiaSingaporeSouth KoreaSpainSri LankaSwedenSwitzerlandTaiwanThailandTurkeyUgandaUkraineUnited Arab EmiratesUnited KingdomUnited StatesVietnamnone


A. Top Sellers
United States

The United States and Israel are the biggest producers and sellers of drones. America’s leading combat drone is the MQ-9 Reaper, manufactured by General Atomics, which the Air Force has used to support operations around the world for 10 years. After the September 11th attacks, the United States conducted the first strikes under the burgeoning U.S. drone program using the MQ-1 Predator, which the Air Force flew in combat for 21 years. On February 27, 2017, the Department of Defense announced the retirement of the Predator drone to “keep up with the continuously evolving battlespace environment.” The United States has sold drones only to NATO members.

Israel

Israel’s IAI Heron is designed to compete with the Reaper. Israel is the largest exporter of drones in the world. Israel accounted for 41 percent of all drones exported between 2001 and 2011, according to a database compiled by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), though Israel refuses to release the full list of countries to which it has sold military arms. A partial list of recipients includes the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, France, Australia, Germany, Spain, Brazil, India, China, the Netherlands, Azerbaijan, and Nigeria.

China
China is a growing drone exporter and has filled gaps in the market with its more liberal export policy. In 2015, Pakistan, Iraq, and Nigeria all conducted strikes using armed drones supplied by, or developed in coordination with, China.

In November 2013, Pakistan’s military unveiled two domestically produced drones that experts say appear to be based on China’s CH-3, a model which Pakistan also has in its arsenal. The CH-3 appears to be China’s most popular model, with exports to both Pakistan and Nigeria, and an upgraded Chinese model, the CH-4, has appeared in arsenals across the Middle East. On December 6, 2015, Iraqi armed forces released footage of a CH-4 in action, striking an ISIS position in Ramadi. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Egypt are reported to have purchased the CH-4 as well. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have operated unarmed versions of the CH-4 in their campaign in Yemen, and in 2014, Jordan was reported to be in talks to purchase armed drones from China to combat ISIS in Syria.

A new addition to the Caihong family, the CH-5, debuted in 2016. The CH-5 has increased altitude, operational, and payload capacities. According to Caihong developers, a number of nations are in talks to purchase the new model.


B. Top Buyers
India
According to SIPRI’s arms transfers database and Statista, India and the United Kingdom are the largest importers of drones internationally. According to a Business Insider report based on SIPRI data, India accounted for 22.5 percent of drone imports between 1985-2014. That percentage shrinks to 13.2 percent when measured between 2010-2014, but still puts India in second place. In addition to its imports, India also has indigenous Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles (UCAVs) in its drone arsenal. On November 16, 2016, India’s Rustom-II, an armed Medium-Altitude, Long-Endurance (MALE) drone, successfully completed a test flight.

United Kingdom
From 2010-2014, the United Kingdom was the largest importer of drones, accounting for 33.9 percent of drone imports for this period. The United Kingdom produces small, MALE, and Watchkeeper drones, which is based on an imported Hermes 450 drone from Israel, domestically and is the only country to which the United States exports armed Reaper drones from United States.

UK Defence Secretary Michael Fallon announced at a 2016 security conference hosted by the United States a new contract with General Atomics that will double the Royal Air Force’s (RAF) drone fleet. The “Protector” drones developed under the contract will provide an update to to the Reapers in the military’s arsenal, improving imaging and increasing the airborne time. The UK will arm the Protector with indigenously developed Brimstone 2 missiles and Paveway IV laser-guided bombs, according to a Guardian report.

 

[The SC]

2. Who Has What: Countries with Drones Used in Combat

For nearly a decade, the small group of armed drone users was limited to the the United States, the United Kingdom, and Israel. But that club expanded with the entry of Pakistan in 2015. Pakistan used its domestic model, the Burraq—modeled after the Chinese CH-3—to strike militants in the North Waziristan tribal region. The Pakistani government announced the strike publicly.

Nigeria and Iraq both used versions of China’s popular Caihong drone when striking at militants within their borders in February and May respectively. Turkey launched a strike in 2016 against presumed ISIS militants on its border region just a year after demonstrating armed drone development capability. Iran also launched its first strike in 2016, though it has been developing its drone capability for decades.

Countries with Drones Used in Combat
Countries with Drones Used in Combat

Search:
Country Date Country of Use Drone Model Used Drones in Arsenal
Azerbaijan April 05, 2016 Nagorno-Karabakh IAI Harop
Iran February 04, 2016 Syria Shahed 129 Ababil (five variants), Mohajer (four variants), Karrar, Yasir, H-110 Sarir, Hazem, Hamaseh, Shahed 129, Ra'ad-85
Iraq May 25, 2016 Home country CH-4 ScanEagle (United States), CH-4B (China)
Israel October 24, 2004 Gaza Unknown
Nigeria February 03, 2016 Home country CH-3 Aerostar (Israel), CH-3 (China) GULMA (Domestic)
Pakistan September 07, 2015 Home country Burraq Burraq, Shahpar, Arrow
Turkey December 09, 2016 Home country Bayraktar TAI ANKA, Bayraktar, Heron (Israel), Aerostar (Israel), Gnat (United States)
United Kingdom NaN, 0NaN Afghanistan MQ-9 Reaper
United States October 07, 2001 Afghanistan Predator RQ-11 Raven, AeroVironment Wasp III, AeroVironment RQ-20 Puma, RQ-16, T-Hawk, MQ-1C Grey Eagles, MQ-9 Reapers, RQ-7 Shadow, RQ-4 Global Hawk


3. Who Has What: Countries with Armed Drones
Countries with Armed Drones
Search:
Country Year Description
United States 2001 The U.S. conducted the country's first drone strikes in Afghanistan in 2001.
United Kingdom 2008
Ukraine 2016 On May 31, 2016, Ukraine succesfully tested the indigenously developed Yatagan-2, which detonates on impact.
Turkmenistan 2016 In November 2016, the Turkmenistan military displayed two Chinese-made WJ-600A/D UCAVs in a parade.
Spain 2015 In 2015, the U.S. approved the sale of armed Reaper drones to Spain.
Poland 2017 In 2017, the Polish Ministry of Defence announced that 15 companies sumbitted bids to develop MALE UCAVs for Poland. Poland operates small munition UAVs.
Pakistan 2015 Pakistan unveiled an armed version of its domestically produced Barraq on September 7, 2015, with its first successful drone strike.
Nigeria 2015 A 2015 photo revealed a crashed Chinese-made CH-3 in Nigeria, indicating acquisition.
Kazakhstan 2016 In 2016, Kazakhstan purchased two Wing-Loong armed drones from China.
Italy 2015 In 2015, the U.S. approved a longstanding request from Italy to arm its MQ-9 Reaper drones with Hellfire missiles.
Israel 2004 Israel has never publically acknowledged drone use, but reports of Israel's drone use are innumberable.
Iran 2010 Iran unveiled its first armed drone, the Karrar, on August 22, 2010, and continues production and use of UCAVs.
India 2016 In 2016, India's Rustom II, a MALE combat drone, completed the first test flight. India reportedly ordered 10 combat-capable Heron drones from Israel in 2015.
Greece 2016 The nEUROn stealth UCAV was flown in public in June 2016.
Georgia 2015 Georgia unveiled its first domestically produced armed drone in 2015, an unmanned attack helicopter developed by the Georgian state R&D center "Delta."
France 2016 Naval testing of the nEUROn was conducted in May 2016.
Egypt 2015 Egypt has purchased Wing Loong and CH-4 UCAVS from China.
China 2013 In November 2013, China successfully tested a stealth armed drone called the Sharp Sword.
Azerbaijan 2016 In 2016, footage emerged of an Israeli kamikazi drone flying over disputed Azerbaijani-Armenian territory, reportedly targeting a bus carrying Armenians.

4. Who Has What: Countries Developing Armed Drones
European nations have acted collectively to develop the next generation of armed drones, most notably the nEUROn UCAV technology demonstrator and the MALE unmanned aircraft. Resembling the American X-47B, a drone primarily operated by the U.S. Navy in carrier-based operations, but purportedly more advanced than present-day “Predator-class” drones, the nEUROn UCAV demonstrator unveiled on January 20, 2012 in France is a product of a joint European effort involving France, Italy, Greece, Spain, Switzerland, and Sweden. It is the first stealth combat drone developed in Europe.



In another showcasing of cooperative European stealth drone design, the “drone users club” consisting of France, Germany, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland and Spain, agreed on November 19, 2013, to jointly develop armed, MALE drones.

The desire to develop armed drones domestically extends beyond European borders. Pakistan, Turkey, Iran, Russia, Taiwan, and India have taken steps toward independent armed drone production with varying results. Seeking protection against neighboring China and Pakistan, India developed Rustom-I UAVs in 2009 and armed Rustom-II MALE UAVs in 2015. While Russia and Taiwan remain in the research and development stage, Pakistan, Iran, and Turkey have succeeded in developing armed drones.

Countries Manufacturing Armed Drones
Search:
Country Year Description
United States 2001 A modified version of the Predator, armed with Hellfire missiles was successfully tested in January 2001.
Israel 2004 Israel has reportedly been developing drones for nearly forty years.
United Kingdom 2005 The UK began developing the Taranis UCAV in 2005. Test flights began in 2013.
France 2006 France is the leader of the nEUROn UCAV development project. The primary contractor is Dassault Aviation
Iran 2010 Iran unveiled the Karrar, a long-range drone, on August 23, 2010.
China 2013 In 2013, the New York Times reported that China considered conducting a drone strike, indicating armed drone development.
Pakistan 2013 Beginning development in 2013, Pakistan's military has successfully tested its Burraq and Shahpar drone in its own territory in September and October of 2015.
Italy 2015 The nEUROn European stealth drone collaboration completed the first operational tests at an Italian air base.
Greece 2015 Greece is an investor in the nEUROn stealth drone development project.
Spain 2015 Spain is an investor in the nEUROn stealth drone project and Germany's partner on the EADS Barracuda MALE, UAV/UCAV project.
Jordan 2015 In May 2015, U.S. Rep. Duncan Hunter revealed that Jordan was in talks with China to acquire armed drone technology. It is unclear if Jordan made a purchase.
Germany 2015 In May 2015 Germany signed an agreement with France and Italy to begin development of an armed "Euro-drone" which could be deployed by 2025.
Georgia 2015 Georgia unveiled its first domestically produced armed drone in 2015, an unmanned attack helicopter developed by the Georgian state R&D center "Delta."
India 2016 In 2016, India's Rustom II, a MALE combat drone, completed the first test flight.
Ukraine 2016 In 2016, Ukraine unveiled a prototype of the AN-BK-1 Horlytsia which, after development, will be the Ukraine's largest drone and will carry a payload. Ukraine has also successfully tested the Yatagan-2, a small, Ukrainian-made armed drone.
Australia 2017 A Reaper was shipped to Australia in March 2017, as Australia is weighing competing U.S. and Israeli UCAV contracts. Australia does not yet operate UCAVs.


5. Non-State Actors with Drone Capabilities
Several non-state actors have incorporated drones into their operations. While rebel groups from South America to the Middle East have used commercially available rotary-winged drones to surveil enemy positions, more tech-savvy groups such as ISIS have armed these over-the-counter drones and used them in combat.

ISIS, the militant group headquartered in Syria and Iraq, announced in January 2017 the establishment of a formal drone unit—"Unmanned Aircraft of the Mujahideen"—that organizes unmanned aircraft campaigns on the battlefield.

Like other groups, ISIS traffics in commercial drone technology, attaching munitions to over-the-counter quadcopters and small fixed-wing drones. Unlike groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas, ISIS does not yet have access to military-grade unmanned aircraft.

However, their drone campaigns are highly organized and have resulted in casualties. In October 2016, Kurdish forces shot down and confiscated an ISIS quadcopter, artificially armed with explosives. It later detonated, killing two Kurdish fighters, in the first known incident of the militant group killing troops on the battlefield with their unmanned systems.

The deadly attack followed two years of ISIS using drones only for surveillance. U.S. officials confirmed to the Washington Post that the group crossed a threshold in terms of drone capability with the strike.

Houthi Rebels, the Iran-backed rebel group in Yemen, unveiled a new drone capability on January 30, 2017, when it struck a Saudi warship in the Red Sea with an armed unmanned maritime craft. This maritime drone strike killed two Saudi Navy sailors and injured three others. Like the armed commercial drones popular among militant groups, this drone requires remote operation.

Evidence shows that the rebel group is acquiring drones from Iran. On January 28, 2017, the UAE Air Force assisted Arab Coalition Forces in destroying an Iranian military drone prior to launch from Houthi-controlled territory. Also, two military-grade UAVs were on display at an event attended by senior rebel officials on February 26, 2017: the Qasif 1 which resembles Iran’s Ababil 2 and the Raqeep, which according to IHS Jane’s, “may have been an AeroVironment RQ-11 Raven that crashed in Yemen and was reassembled for the event.”

Hezbollah, a Lebanese militant group, was the first non-state actor known to deploy military drones, launching a Mirsad 1 military-grade surveillance drone into Israeli airspace in November 2004. According to an American Federation of Science (FAS) report Hezbollah flew the drone “south from Lebanon into Israel, hovered over the Western Galilee town of Nahariya for about 20 minutes and then returned to Lebanon before the Israeli air force could intercept it.”

Despite the evidence that Hezbollah has long had functioning military drones, the group has used them sparingly. In 2006, the militant group launched armed Ababil drones into Israeli airspace that were subsequently shot down. The group has recently demonstrated a preference for commercial drones. In August 2016, the group used small quadcopters armed with munitions to launch an attack on rebel positions in Aleppo, Syria.

Hamas, the Palestinian group which rules the Gaza strip, has military-grade, Iranian-made Ababil drones. Hamas claims to have manufactured three types of drones themselves: surveillance, armed, and one to serve as a guided missile.

In September 2016, the Israeli Defense Forces shot down a Hamas drone that had breached Israeli airspace. And in December of the same year, Hamas’ Qassam Brigades, the militant wing of the organization, acknowledged the death of Mohammed Zawari, the apparent supervisor of their drone program, shedding light on the group’s little-known drone operations.

Hamas has posted video and images of a drone in its possession that has four small rockets or missiles under its wings.

Other Non-State Actors with Drones
In addition to ISIS, the Houthi rebel group in Yemen, Hezbollah, and Hamas, several other groups are reported to have used commercial drones to surveil enemy forces in combat zones. These groups include: Libyan rebels, the Donetsk People’s Republic, the Kurdish Peshmerga, Jabhat al-Nusra, Faylaq al-Sham and Saraya al-Khorani, both Syrian rebel groups, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), and Colombian and Mexican drug cartels.

6. The Future of Drone Warfare: Striking at Home
The United States and the United Kingdom have used drones to kill their own citizens abroad. Pakistan, Iraq, Nigeria, and Turkey have struck militants within their borders, and Israel has conducted strikes within the occupied Palestinian territories. The legality of drone strikes is unclear under international law, and the legal status of using drones to kill citizens abroad—or within controlled territory—is even less so.

Where Citizens of the United States and United Kingdom Were Targeted

Anwar al-Awlaki was targeted and killed by a U.S. drone strike in Yemen on September 30, 2011, along with three other al Qaeda militants. One of these three was Saudi-born American citizen Samir Khan, editor of al Qaeda’s English language online magazine, Inspire. Anwar al-Awlaki’s American-born son, 16- year- old Abdulrahman Anwar al-Awlaki, was killed in an October 14, 2011, drone strike on an outdoor cafe in Shabwa, Yemen. The target of the strike was reportedly not Abdulrahman, but Egyptian al-Qaeda leader Ibrahim al-Banna. According to a BBC report, a memo from U.S. Assistant Attorney General David Barron to Attorney General Eric Holder “cited a 2006 Israeli Supreme Court decision that targeted killings were a legitimate form of self defence[sic].”

Mohammed Emwazi, the Kuwaiti-born British ISIS member known as “Jihadi John” was killed on November 12, 2015, when his vehicle was targeted by British and American drones in Raqqa, Syria. His car was hit with a hellfire missile fired from an American Reaper drone. Two British citizens, Reyaad Khan and Ruhul Amin, were killed in a targeted RAF drone strike in Raqqa, Syria on August 21, 2015.

Where Pakistan Conducts Strikes at Home
On September 7, 2015, Pakistan conducted a drone strike—using an indigenously built drone—in Shawal Valley in North Waziristan, a semiautonomous tribal region bordering Afghanistan. Three “high-profile” terrorists were killed, according to the Pakistani Army’s spokesman.

Where Iraq Conducts Strikes at Home
On May 25, 2016, Iraq’s Army Aviation unit published a video on YouTube that showed four drone strikes that reportedly killed 10 ISIS fighters. The Iraqi military conducted the strike with China’s Caihong 4 (CH-4).

Where Nigeria Conducts Strikes at Home
On February 3, 2016, Nigeria reported the military’s first use of an armed drone, striking at the militant group Boko Haram. Nigeria used the Caihong 3 (CH-3) to conduct the strike.

As export laws loosen internationally and drone technology proliferates, nations mired in internal conflict (i.e. insurgent and terrorist threats) may choose to strike within their own borders at higher rates.

Where Turkey Conducts Strikes at Home
In 2016, Turkey deployed armed Bayraktar TB2 drones in domestic counter-terrorism operations against PKK militants in the southeastern Hakkari province. According to Turkish Defense Minister Fikri Isik, the drones killed 72 people in strikes on militants in the first two months of their deployment.

Where Israel Conducts Strikes within Controlled Territory
Israel has made extensive use of armed drones in the Gaza Strip. Israeli drones have targeted a number of Hamas leaders, including senior military commander Ahmed Jabari, who was killed on November 14, 2012.


7. The Future of Drone Warfare: The Rise of Maritime Drones
When the Houthi rebels in Yemen first used maritime drones in January 2017, the assault on a Saudi frigate highlighted the little-known development of sea-capable semi-autonomous weapons. While maritime drone technology is not yet proliferating at the pace of aerial drones, countries like the United States, the United Kingdom, and Russia are already looking seaward in terms of drone development.

The U.S. Navy sees maritime drones as a key part of the Third Offset strategy, which seeks to leverage next-generation technologies against America’s adversaries. Unmanned Underwater Vehicles (UUVs) will enable the creation of an underwater intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance network that mirrors U.S. aerial and land-based networks. According to a 2016 DoD report entitled “Autonomous Undersea Vehicle Requirement for 2025,” Submarine based UUVs will be used to extend the effective range of the host submarine’s sensors and weaponry. These drones will also be used to carry out missions considered too dangerous for crewed vehicles, like mine countermeasures, and to serve as decoys to disguise the locations of manned submarines.

According to a 2016 U.S. Naval Institute news report, Commander of U.S. Submarine Force Pacific Rear Adm. Fritz Roegge said at the Oct. 27 Naval Submarine League annual symposium that the Navy would have a functioning UUV squadron by 2019. In remarks delivered aboard the USS Princeton on February 3, 2016, Defense Secretary Ash Carter said the United States would invest “$600 million over the next 5 years” in UUVs.

In April 2016, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) christened the Sea Hunter, a 132-foot autonomous ship designed to locate enemy submarines. In December 2016, the U.S. Navy demonstrated that a swarm of autonomous surface vessels could work cooperatively to patrol a harbor. The drone boats are programmed to identify and track potentially threatening vessels, both surface craft and submarines. The Echo Voyager, introduced in 2016, is a large reconnaissance UUV that can operate autonomously for six months and surface to send data to its operator via satellite.

The British Royal Navy appears to share the United States’ interest in maritime drones. The United States and United Kingdom staged the first Unmanned Warrior exercise in Scotland in October 2016, where drones from different countries were networked together to work as a unit.



In August 2015, Russia launched a retrofitted SSBN capable of launching crewed mini-subs as well as UUVs like the deepwater surveillance drone Klavesin-1R. In September 2015, the Washington Free Beacon reported that Russia was developing a stealthy, nuclear-armed UUV called the “Status-6”. Documents shown on Russian TV in November 2015 appeared to confirm the initial reports, though the apparent security lapse may well have been a deliberate effort to spread false information about the program.

https://www.newamerica.org/in-depth/world-of-drones/7-future-drone-warfare-rise-maritime-drones/