Hey, it’s Saturday night, March 29, 2025, and we’re two days out from an election that’s got everyone’s attention not just in Wisconsin, but across the whole dang country. On Tuesday, April 1, Wisconsinites will pick a new Supreme Court justice, and trust me, this isn’t your average sleepy spring vote. This race is a monster already the priciest judicial election in U.S. history, with over $81 million spent and counting. It’s Susan Crawford, a liberal judge from Dane County, versus Brad Schimel, a conservative judge and ex-Republican attorney general from Waukesha County. The stakes? Control of the state’s highest court, a 4-3 liberal edge hangs in the balance, and the fallout could ripple way beyond the Badger State. So, what’s this all about? Why’s it matter so much? Let’s break it down.
The Setup
Picture Wisconsin’s Supreme Court: seven justices, elected for 10-year terms in nonpartisan races technically, no “D” or “R” next to their names. But let’s be real: everyone knows who’s who. Right now, it’s a 4-3 liberal majority, flipped in 2023 when Janet Protasiewicz won big, ending 15 years of conservative control. That shift changed everything tossed out gerrymandered maps, brought back ballot drop boxes, and put abortion rights back in play. Now, liberal Justice Ann Walsh Bradley’s retiring after 30 years, and this election decides if that majority holds or flips back.
The candidates? Crawford’s got the progressive vibe former prosecutor, worked for a Democratic governor, backed by the state’s Dems. Schimel’s the conservative pick served as AG from 2015 to 2019, now a judge, and he’s got Republicans and Trump world cheering him on. It’s officially nonpartisan, but it’s as partisan as a Packers-Bears game.
Why It’s a Big Deal
Wisconsin’s a swing state always has been. Five of the last seven presidential races here came down to less than 1%. Trump squeaked by with 29,300 votes last November, after Biden won by even less in 2020. The Supreme Court’s a kingmaker here it rules on voting laws, redistricting, abortion, you name it. Since the U.S. Supreme Court dumped Roe v. Wade in 2022, state courts like Wisconsin’s are where the action’s at. This election’s not just about one seat; it’s about who calls the shots on stuff that could sway Congress and the White House down the line.
Take abortion. Wisconsin’s got an 1849 law banning it, a “trigger law” that kicked in post-Roe. For a year, abortions stopped clinics shuttered, chaos reigned. Then a lower court said, nah, that law doesn’t actually ban it, and services restarted. Now, two cases are simmering: Kaul v. Urmanski asks if that old law still stands, and a Planned Parenthood suit wants the state constitution to protect abortion rights. The current court heard Kaul already, but the new justice elected Tuesday could tip Planned Parenthood or any appeal. Crawford’s pro-choice; Schimel says it’s up to voters, not judges, but he’s called the ban “valid.” That’s a fault line right there.
Then there’s redistricting. In 2023, the liberal court trashed Republican-drawn maps that locked in GOP majorities despite close statewide votes. New maps from Democratic Governor Tony Evers gave Dems 14 more legislative seats last fall not enough to flip the legislature, but a dent. Republicans scream gerrymandering; Dems say it’s fairness. U.S. House maps are next Hakeem Jeffries flat-out said Monday on X that Crawford’s win could redraw them, maybe flipping two GOP seats. In a razor-thin Congress, that’s huge.
Voting rules? The court’s been a battlefield. It killed drop boxes in 2022 under conservatives, then brought them back last year with liberals in charge. It shot down Trump’s 2020 bid to toss 200,000 ballots too. With 2026 midterms and 2028’s presidential race looming, who’s on this bench could set the rules drop boxes, voter ID, all of it.
The Money Flood
This race is drowning in cash $81 million by Friday, per the Brennan Center, smashing the $56 million record from 2023. It’s not even close Crawford’s side has dropped $40 million, Schimel’s $46 million, with more pouring in for turnout drives. Billionaires are all over it. George Soros kicked in $1 million to Wisconsin Dems in January; Reid Hoffman tossed $250,000. On the flip side, roofing magnate Diane Hendricks bankrolled Republicans, and then there’s Elon Musk oh boy, Musk.
Musk’s the big spender over $20 million through his America PAC and Building America’s Future groups, plus $2 million straight to the state GOP last week (they funneled $1.2 million to Schimel same day). He’s even offering $100 to Wisconsinites who sign an anti-“activist judges” petition—shady, maybe illegal, and Wisconsin AG Josh Kaul sued Friday to stop it. Musk’s in deep tweeting support for Schimel, tying it to “voting fraud” prevention. Why? Tesla’s suing Wisconsin over a dealership ban, a case that could hit this court. Conflict much?
The Campaign Chaos
It’s a slugfest. Crawford’s hammering Schimel on abortion ads say he’ll kill women’s rights and tying him to Musk and Trump. Billboards scream, “Don’t let Elon buy the Supreme Court,” with Musk as Schimel’s puppet master. She’s leaning hard into reproductive freedom, rallying Tuesday with abortion rights folks like Mini Timmaraju in Madison. Schimel’s hitting back calls Crawford soft on crime, spotlighting light sentences in child assault cases from her judge days. He’s got ads with his adopted daughters, pushing a pro-life slant, and says courts shouldn’t “make law.”
Big names are parachuting in. Trump endorsed Schimel last weekend; Don Jr. campaigned with him March 17, saying it’s key for Dad’s agenda. Bernie Sanders stumped for Crawford, slamming Musk’s cash. Tim Walz told Wisconsin Public Radio it’s a fight against Trump and Musk’s influence. Eric Holder’s set to boost Crawford next month. It’s a national circus Republicans want Trump’s November juice to carry over; Dems see it as a rebound from 2024’s bruises.
Turnout’s the Key
Early voting started March 18, and it’s nuts 345,000 ballots by Friday, 48% more than two years ago. Milwaukee’s up 46%; Waukesha, a GOP stronghold, is rocking too. Polls are tight Newsweek says a March 23 Marquette poll had Crawford at 42%, Schimel at 35%, 17% undecided, but OnMessage’s March 9-10 survey showed them tied at 47%. It’s a coin toss, and it’s all about who shows up. Spring elections usually tank 2023 hit 41%, double the norm but this feels bigger.
Dems are worried about fatigue Angela Lang from Black Leaders Organizing for Communities told CNN folks are “checked out” post-2024. Republicans fear complacency John Beauchamp from Jefferson County GOP told PBS Wisconsin Trump fans might sit this out, thinking November was enough. Both sides are scrambling Swing Left’s knocking doors, Musk’s PAC is mailing flyers, and ads are everywhere.
National Stakes
This isn’t just Wisconsin’s fight. If Crawford wins, liberals lock the court through 2028—more Evers maps, maybe abortion rights cemented, voting access expanded. Schimel wins, it’s 3-3 with Justice Brian Hagedorn as the swing vote again conservatives could claw back maps, tighten voting, maybe nix that abortion ruling. In a state where Trump’s margin was razor-thin, and Congress hangs by a thread, that’s seismic.
It’s a Trump test too his first big post-inauguration gauge. Musk’s clout’s on the line $20 million says he wants a win. Dems need a spark after 2024; this could be it or a gut punch. The 2026 midterms and 2028 White House race? This court could draw the lines, literally and figuratively.
What’s Next?
Polls close 8 p.m. Tuesday results should roll in quick. Whoever wins, it’s not over five more court races hit Wisconsin through 2029, two conservative seats up in ’26 and ’27. Legal fights are brewing too Musk’s giveaways, Tesla’s suit, abortion cases. The court’s quieter now 14 decisions last term, down from 90-plus in neighboring states but its impact? Massive.
So, here we are 10:58 p.m. EDT, two days out. Wisconsin’s Supreme Court race is a pressure cooker money, power, rights, all boiling over. It’s not just a seat; it’s a lever for the future. Who’s got it Crawford or Schimel? We’ll know soon. What do you think does this flip the script or hold the line? Either way, it’s one for the books.
The Setup
Picture Wisconsin’s Supreme Court: seven justices, elected for 10-year terms in nonpartisan races technically, no “D” or “R” next to their names. But let’s be real: everyone knows who’s who. Right now, it’s a 4-3 liberal majority, flipped in 2023 when Janet Protasiewicz won big, ending 15 years of conservative control. That shift changed everything tossed out gerrymandered maps, brought back ballot drop boxes, and put abortion rights back in play. Now, liberal Justice Ann Walsh Bradley’s retiring after 30 years, and this election decides if that majority holds or flips back.
The candidates? Crawford’s got the progressive vibe former prosecutor, worked for a Democratic governor, backed by the state’s Dems. Schimel’s the conservative pick served as AG from 2015 to 2019, now a judge, and he’s got Republicans and Trump world cheering him on. It’s officially nonpartisan, but it’s as partisan as a Packers-Bears game.
Why It’s a Big Deal
Wisconsin’s a swing state always has been. Five of the last seven presidential races here came down to less than 1%. Trump squeaked by with 29,300 votes last November, after Biden won by even less in 2020. The Supreme Court’s a kingmaker here it rules on voting laws, redistricting, abortion, you name it. Since the U.S. Supreme Court dumped Roe v. Wade in 2022, state courts like Wisconsin’s are where the action’s at. This election’s not just about one seat; it’s about who calls the shots on stuff that could sway Congress and the White House down the line.
Take abortion. Wisconsin’s got an 1849 law banning it, a “trigger law” that kicked in post-Roe. For a year, abortions stopped clinics shuttered, chaos reigned. Then a lower court said, nah, that law doesn’t actually ban it, and services restarted. Now, two cases are simmering: Kaul v. Urmanski asks if that old law still stands, and a Planned Parenthood suit wants the state constitution to protect abortion rights. The current court heard Kaul already, but the new justice elected Tuesday could tip Planned Parenthood or any appeal. Crawford’s pro-choice; Schimel says it’s up to voters, not judges, but he’s called the ban “valid.” That’s a fault line right there.
Then there’s redistricting. In 2023, the liberal court trashed Republican-drawn maps that locked in GOP majorities despite close statewide votes. New maps from Democratic Governor Tony Evers gave Dems 14 more legislative seats last fall not enough to flip the legislature, but a dent. Republicans scream gerrymandering; Dems say it’s fairness. U.S. House maps are next Hakeem Jeffries flat-out said Monday on X that Crawford’s win could redraw them, maybe flipping two GOP seats. In a razor-thin Congress, that’s huge.
Voting rules? The court’s been a battlefield. It killed drop boxes in 2022 under conservatives, then brought them back last year with liberals in charge. It shot down Trump’s 2020 bid to toss 200,000 ballots too. With 2026 midterms and 2028’s presidential race looming, who’s on this bench could set the rules drop boxes, voter ID, all of it.
The Money Flood
This race is drowning in cash $81 million by Friday, per the Brennan Center, smashing the $56 million record from 2023. It’s not even close Crawford’s side has dropped $40 million, Schimel’s $46 million, with more pouring in for turnout drives. Billionaires are all over it. George Soros kicked in $1 million to Wisconsin Dems in January; Reid Hoffman tossed $250,000. On the flip side, roofing magnate Diane Hendricks bankrolled Republicans, and then there’s Elon Musk oh boy, Musk.
Musk’s the big spender over $20 million through his America PAC and Building America’s Future groups, plus $2 million straight to the state GOP last week (they funneled $1.2 million to Schimel same day). He’s even offering $100 to Wisconsinites who sign an anti-“activist judges” petition—shady, maybe illegal, and Wisconsin AG Josh Kaul sued Friday to stop it. Musk’s in deep tweeting support for Schimel, tying it to “voting fraud” prevention. Why? Tesla’s suing Wisconsin over a dealership ban, a case that could hit this court. Conflict much?
The Campaign Chaos
It’s a slugfest. Crawford’s hammering Schimel on abortion ads say he’ll kill women’s rights and tying him to Musk and Trump. Billboards scream, “Don’t let Elon buy the Supreme Court,” with Musk as Schimel’s puppet master. She’s leaning hard into reproductive freedom, rallying Tuesday with abortion rights folks like Mini Timmaraju in Madison. Schimel’s hitting back calls Crawford soft on crime, spotlighting light sentences in child assault cases from her judge days. He’s got ads with his adopted daughters, pushing a pro-life slant, and says courts shouldn’t “make law.”
Big names are parachuting in. Trump endorsed Schimel last weekend; Don Jr. campaigned with him March 17, saying it’s key for Dad’s agenda. Bernie Sanders stumped for Crawford, slamming Musk’s cash. Tim Walz told Wisconsin Public Radio it’s a fight against Trump and Musk’s influence. Eric Holder’s set to boost Crawford next month. It’s a national circus Republicans want Trump’s November juice to carry over; Dems see it as a rebound from 2024’s bruises.
Turnout’s the Key
Early voting started March 18, and it’s nuts 345,000 ballots by Friday, 48% more than two years ago. Milwaukee’s up 46%; Waukesha, a GOP stronghold, is rocking too. Polls are tight Newsweek says a March 23 Marquette poll had Crawford at 42%, Schimel at 35%, 17% undecided, but OnMessage’s March 9-10 survey showed them tied at 47%. It’s a coin toss, and it’s all about who shows up. Spring elections usually tank 2023 hit 41%, double the norm but this feels bigger.
Dems are worried about fatigue Angela Lang from Black Leaders Organizing for Communities told CNN folks are “checked out” post-2024. Republicans fear complacency John Beauchamp from Jefferson County GOP told PBS Wisconsin Trump fans might sit this out, thinking November was enough. Both sides are scrambling Swing Left’s knocking doors, Musk’s PAC is mailing flyers, and ads are everywhere.
National Stakes
This isn’t just Wisconsin’s fight. If Crawford wins, liberals lock the court through 2028—more Evers maps, maybe abortion rights cemented, voting access expanded. Schimel wins, it’s 3-3 with Justice Brian Hagedorn as the swing vote again conservatives could claw back maps, tighten voting, maybe nix that abortion ruling. In a state where Trump’s margin was razor-thin, and Congress hangs by a thread, that’s seismic.
It’s a Trump test too his first big post-inauguration gauge. Musk’s clout’s on the line $20 million says he wants a win. Dems need a spark after 2024; this could be it or a gut punch. The 2026 midterms and 2028 White House race? This court could draw the lines, literally and figuratively.
What’s Next?
Polls close 8 p.m. Tuesday results should roll in quick. Whoever wins, it’s not over five more court races hit Wisconsin through 2029, two conservative seats up in ’26 and ’27. Legal fights are brewing too Musk’s giveaways, Tesla’s suit, abortion cases. The court’s quieter now 14 decisions last term, down from 90-plus in neighboring states but its impact? Massive.
So, here we are 10:58 p.m. EDT, two days out. Wisconsin’s Supreme Court race is a pressure cooker money, power, rights, all boiling over. It’s not just a seat; it’s a lever for the future. Who’s got it Crawford or Schimel? We’ll know soon. What do you think does this flip the script or hold the line? Either way, it’s one for the books.
