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Windfall for Chinese on coal fired projects

that's some higher than Himalayas profit right there....all at the cost of the few Pakistani taxpayers
Sir are you a real accountant?
Not a single post analyzing the actual content of the article :-)

Gentleman I am An ACCA Finalist And trolling Aside I Can tell You That While The Article Is True It Is Very one Sided.
This Is What Is Written
In his article, “Financing burden of CPEC”, former Governor State Bank of Pakistan, Dr Ishrat Husain recently wrote, “The loans would be taken by Chinese companies, mainly from the China Development Bank and China Exim Bank, against their own balance sheets”.
Dr Husain estimated that at 40 per cent equity and 17 per cent guaranteed return on these projects would entail annual payments of $2.4 billion from the current account.

Now Let Me Tell You That This Is Just One Side. Pakistan Loses An Estimated 2% Of It's GDP Annually Due To Power Shortage.Right Now At Present GDP($232.3 Billion) This Is $4.646 Billion.Not Only That Once These Power Projects Are Online We Will Recover This Lost Wealth But We Create More New Wealth Because Pakistan Would Become A Power Surplus Country.So While We Would Be Paying $2.4 Billion We Would Be Earning Much More(Nearly Double).

Secondly Pakistan Is Not Solely Going Rely On Thermal Based Power Plants But Multiple New Hydro Power Projects As Well(Kohala,Neelum Jhelum,Suki Kinari and Karot).Hydel Power Projects Should Not Cost More Than Rs.0.5 to 1
per Unit.They Will Balance Out The Realtively High Cost Of Coal Based and Thermal Based Power
 
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Sir! This is what I was referring to that we don't know any official details. Now that they are available. This is scary.
And let me be the cynic but in the end we will find ruling family involved in these projects after some years just like we now found Qatari connection.
@Zaki
 
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Gentleman I am An ACCA Finalist And trolling Aside I Can tell You That While The Article Is True It Is Very one Sided.
This Is What Is Written


Now Let Me Tell You That This Is Just One Side. Pakistan Loses An Estimated 2% Of It's GDP Annually Due To Power Shortage.Right Now At Present GDP($232.3 Billion) This Is $4.646 Billion.Not Only That Once These Power Projects Are Online We Will Recover This Lost Wealth But We Create More New Wealth Because Pakistan Would Become A Power Surplus Country.So While We Would Be Paying $2.4 Billion We Would Be Earning Much More(Nearly Double).

Secondly Pakistan Is Not Solely Going Rely On Thermal Based Power Plants But Multiple New Hydro Power Projects As Well(Kohala,Neelum Jhelum,Suki Kinari and Karot).Hydel Power Projects Should Not Cost More Than Rs.0.5 to 1
per Unit.They Will Balance Out The Realtively High Cost Of Coal Based and Thermal Based Power
The payment outgo is hard cash from the central bank reserves while the efficiency gains and savings are highly subjective and a miniscule portion would return to the treasury in the form of taxes. Therefore, the payments affect the current account balances given the limited forex availability and are of immediate concern.
 
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The payment outgo is hard cash from the central bank reserves while the efficiency gains and savings are highly subjective and a miniscule portion would return to the treasury in the form of taxes. Therefore, the payments affect the current account balances given the limited forex availability and are of immediate concern.

You Don't Get It The Government Is Not Paying From It's Own Pocket It Is Going To Be Paid From Bills Collected From The Industries and Consumers Who Will Create The Extra Wealth.Let Me Just Give You An Example A Few Years Back Our Textile Industry Was Losing Rs200 Billion (Roughly $2 Billion) A Year and $1 Billion Export Orders Were Diverted on Account of Eratic Energy Supply.These Are The Kind Of Losses We Are Going to Recover

http://www.dawn.com/news/781056

http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/201...caused-rs-200b-annual-loss-to-textile-sector/

Just in 2012 We Lost $3 Billion Exports

http://nation.com.pk/business/07-Dec-2012/textile-sector-to-lose-3-billion-export-orders-says-aptma

Half A Million People Will Get Back To Work


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...chi-factory-signals-pakistan-s-textile-crisis
 
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This practice of giving massive tax breaks is employed all over the world, I forget to see, what's wrong with this deal, to all our Indian friends celebrating the massive stupidity of Pakistani journalist

Chinese are investing money so obviously they will get the returns that's why people invest, Chinese insurance company is insuring it, so obviously they will get the premiums

Please feel free to tell us all that multinationals investing in India or anywhere else in the world aren't collecting profits on their investments
 
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You Don't Get It The Government Is Not Paying From It's Own Pocket It Is Going To Be Paid From Bills Collected From The Industries and Consumers Who Will Create The Extra Wealth.Let Me Just Give You An Example A Few Years Back Our Textile Industry Was Losing Rs200 Billion (Roughly $2 Billion) A Year and $1 Billion Export Orders Were Diverted on Account of Eratic Energy Supply.These Are The Kind Of Losses We Are Going to Recover

http://www.dawn.com/news/781056

http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/201...caused-rs-200b-annual-loss-to-textile-sector/

Half A Million People Will Get Back To Work


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...chi-factory-signals-pakistan-s-textile-crisis
Yes I don't get it. Here's why-
No matter how much bills you collect, you still have to make the interest, principal and dividend payments in foreign currency affecting your BoP and current account (Given the lenders and the equity owners are based in China). The bills collected will not increase your forex reserves. Also bear in mind that most of the returns are guaranteed by the state which means any shortfall shall have to be compensated by the taxpayer.

And with regards to the textile industry- Keeping in mind that textiles are a major chunk of your exports. Customers once lost are not easy to regain. Like other industries and products textile exports are a function of competitiveness. As on date Bangladesh and Vietnam have taken up a lot of market-share from Pakistan and other suppliers. Electricity availability is not much of an issue in Bangladesh and Vietnam- so once the electricity is available Pakistani exporters would still need to get competitive in other areas of production to regain lost market share.
 
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Yes I don't get it. Here's why-
No matter how much bills you collect, you still have to make the interest, principal and dividend payments in foreign currency affecting your BoP and current account (Given the lenders and the equity owners are based in China). The bills collected will not increase your forex reserves. Also bear in mind that most of the returns are guaranteed by the state which means any shortfall shall have to be compensated by the taxpayer.

And with regards to the textile industry- Keeping in mind that textiles are a major chunk of your exports. Customers once lost are not easy to regain. Like other industries and products textile exports are a function of competitiveness. As on date Bangladesh and Vietnam have taken up a lot of market-share from Pakistan and other suppliers. Electricity availability is not much of an issue in Bangladesh and Vietnam- so once the electricity is available Pakistani exporters would still need to get competitive in other areas of production to regain lost market share.

I Am Not Surprised You Do Not Get It.Loans Given By China Development Bank and China Ex Im Bank Are Not Given To Pakistan Government Directly They Are Given To The Private Companies Constructing The Power Plants.These Power Plants Are Being Constructed on An IPP Basis With A Debt Equity Ratio of 75:25.All Costs You Mentioned Are Built In The Tariff.

One Power Crisis Is Over Regaining Competitiveness Will Not Be Much Of A Problem.Pakistan Has Some of The Lowest Labour Costs In The World Plus Now We Also Have GSP Plus Status
 
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I Am Not Surprised You Do Not Get It.Loans Given By China Development Bank and China Ex Im Bank Are Not Given To Pakistan Government Directly They Are Given To The Private Companies Constructing The Power Plants.These Power Plants Are Being Constructed on An IPP Basis With A Debt Equity Ratio of 75:25.All Costs You Mentioned Are Built In The Tariff.

One Power Crisis Is Over Regaining Competitiveness Will Not Be Much Of A Problem.Pakistan Has Some of The Lowest Labour Costs In The World Plus Now We Also Have GSP Plus Status
So the IPP's print their own dollars or yuan to repatriate their profits or they will keep their profits in Pakistan forever? And do they make the interest payments to China Development Bank in Pakistani rupees? Good luck for your ACCA exams. I suppose interest payments are made from project cashflows.
Labour costs are equally cheap in Bangladesh and Vietnam is technologically more advanced.
By the way, I am a CPA and CGMA.
 
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The Chinese Manufacturing Miracle

Just watch viedoes about air pollution in China where a haze covers the entire regions where coal plants are located. People wear masks in order not inhale polluted air. The honeybees have disappeared and the farmers are forced to pollinate crops with hands.
 
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So the IPP's print their own dollars or yuan to repatriate their profits or they will keep their profits in Pakistan forever? And do they make the interest payments to China Development Bank in Pakistani rupees? Good luck for your ACCA exams. I suppose interest payments are made from project cashflows.
Labour costs are equally cheap in Bangladesh and Vietnam is technologically more advanced.
By the way, I am a CPA and CGMA.

Yes Consumers and Industries Pay In Rupees Which Will Be Repatriated in Dollars But These Industries Will Export
In Dollars,So It's Not A One Way Cash Flow

I Wish You Best For Your Career and Professional Exams As Well
 
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Gentleman I am An ACCA Finalist And trolling Aside I Can tell You That While The Article Is True It Is Very one Sided.
This Is What Is Written


Now Let Me Tell You That This Is Just One Side. Pakistan Loses An Estimated 2% Of It's GDP Annually Due To Power Shortage.Right Now At Present GDP($232.3 Billion) This Is $4.646 Billion.Not Only That Once These Power Projects Are Online We Will Recover This Lost Wealth But We Create More New Wealth Because Pakistan Would Become A Power Surplus Country.So While We Would Be Paying $2.4 Billion We Would Be Earning Much More(Nearly Double).

Secondly Pakistan Is Not Solely Going Rely On Thermal Based Power Plants But Multiple New Hydro Power Projects As Well(Kohala,Neelum Jhelum,Suki Kinari and Karot).Hydel Power Projects Should Not Cost More Than Rs.0.5 to 1
per Unit.They Will Balance Out The Realtively High Cost Of Coal Based and Thermal Based Power
You missed the main point the article says.. The article says upto this day everybody thinks that equity percentage is 40% and return is 17%.. $2.4 billion figure was emerged from this thinking( Dr.Hussain estimated).. But now it's revealed that equity percentage is only 25% but return is as high as 34%.. That means the burden on the current account is much more than expected.. From where your exchequer finds this much dollars every year??
 
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Published: February 15, 2017

ISLAMABAD: In what appear to be heavily China-favoured deals, Pakistan has offered up to 34.5 per cent annual profit on equity invested in coal-fired energy projects of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and loans have been obtained at six per cent interest rates, excluding insurance cost.

The official documents revealed that by including the cost of insurance, also paid to a Chinese insurance company, the cost of borrowings would surge to 13 per cent. Adding insult to injury, the government has already exempted income of Chinese financial institutions from dividend income tax.


The Ministry of Water and Power on Tuesday submitted details of terms of conditions of financing and tariff structures of energy projects in a meeting of the National Assembly’s Standing Committee on Planning and Development, shedding some light on these deals.

The ministry provided financing details of eight energy projects having cumulative generation capacity of 7,880 megawatts and being set up at a cost of $12.54 billion. Their sponsors have obtained $9.5 billion loans at an interest rate of London Interbank Offered Rate (Libor) plus 4.5 per cent, according to these documents. The six-month Libor rate was 1.34 per cent and one-year Libor was 1.71 per cent. This would translate into an interest rate equivalent to 5.84 per cent to 6.2 per cent.

The debt to equity ratio for all these eight projects is 75 per cent debt and 25 per cent equity except in case of Karot hydropower project where the debt ratio is 80 per cent.

Besides, China Export and Credit Insurance Corporation (Sinosure) would charge seven per cent fee on the insurance of the loans given to these companies.

Pakistan and China had signed CPEC Energy Framework Agreement in November 2014. Out of $55 billion estimated cost of the CPEC, an amount of $35 billion is earmarked for energy projects.

However, the alarming thing was the return on equity that in case of coal-fired power plants was in between 27.2 per cent to 34.49, almost double the standard 17 per cent rates. In case of hydel-based projects, the internal rate of return (IRR) was 17 per cent. The high return on equity had to be given to make these projects attractive, as people were not ready to invest in coal-based projects, said Omer Rasul, Additional Secretary Ministry of Water and Power after the meeting.

In his article, “Financing burden of CPEC”, former Governor State Bank of Pakistan, Dr Ishrat Husain recently wrote, “The loans would be taken by Chinese companies, mainly from the China Development Bank and China Exim Bank, against their own balance sheets”.
Dr Husain estimated that at 40 per cent equity and 17 per cent guaranteed return on these projects would entail annual payments of $2.4 billion from the current account.


But the details showed that the equity is 25 per cent while the return is as high as 34.55 per cent. So far, National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) has approved tariffs for eight CPEC energy projects, said Safeer Ahmad, Director Finance of Private Power Infrastructure Board (PPIB).

Pakistan has approved 30.65 per cent return on Equity for 660MW Engro Powergen Thar coal-II project. The project cost is $995.4 million and the sponsors have taken $746.55 million loan at almost 6 per cent interest rate. The project got tariff of Rs8.5 per unit.

The government did not approve a separate policy for CPEC energy projects as these plants are set up under the existing energy policies, said Ahsan Iqbal, Minister for Planning and Development, at the floor of the Senate.

The government gave 27.2 per cent return on equity to 1320MW Port Qasim Power Plant. The total cost of the project is $1.92 billion and the sponsors have arranged $1.44 billion loan at 6 per cent interest rate.

The 1320MW Thar Coal power plant by Shanghai Electric Power got the maximum return on equity at 34.49 per cent. The total project cost is $1.92 billion and the sponsors have obtained $1.44 billion loan at 6 per cent interest rate. However, the 1320MW Hubco Coal power, being built in collaboration with China Power Hub, having same cost and debt-equity ratio would get 27.2 per cent return on equity.

The 330MW Thar Energy Limited project, having $497.7 million cost, would attract 30.65 per cent return on equity. The sponsors have got $373.3 million loan.

The 1320MW Sahiwal coal power project would get 27.2 per cent return on equity and the sponsors have obtained $1.44 billion loan, according to Ministry of Water and Power.

Omer Rasul said that the CPEC energy projects were in IPP mode and there was no public financing involved. He said that the average tariff of coal-based power plant was Rs8.3 per unit. However, energy experts said that the actual tariff was far higher than this, as the NEPRA calculated the tariff at 85% plant capacity.

The 870MW Suki Kinari hydro project, having $1.7 billion cost would get 17 per cent internal rate of return. The project will be completed by obtaining $1.3 billion loan at 6 per cent interest rate. The 720MW Karot hydro power project will also get 17 per cent internal rate of return. Its debt-equity ratio is 80-20 and the company has got $1.4 billion loan to complete it.

Would be good to see the original official documents as there are several potential issues here. First of all its not clear whether the article means IRR when it mentions RoE. Nominal RoE may be 30% but IRR would be lower. I can't comment on the insurance cost, but the cost of debt seems reasonable. These are long tenure, back-ended loans, and some may even be convertible or mezzanine in nature, which attract higher yields.

Secondly, while safe to infer that they are talking about USD IRRs, not sure in which currency they are quoting the RoEs.

So the IPP's print their own dollars or yuan to repatriate their profits or they will keep their profits in Pakistan forever? And do they make the interest payments to China Development Bank in Pakistani rupees? Good luck for your ACCA exams. I suppose interest payments are made from project cashflows.
Labour costs are equally cheap in Bangladesh and Vietnam is technologically more advanced.
By the way, I am a CPA and CGMA.

Don't think anyone's disputing that these will cause a forex outflow at the onset and on a standalone basis. But the point Samlee is making is that the Pakistani government is betting on a multiplier effect with enough of that effect trickling down to the export industry to offset the forex outflow. Given that a former SBP governor thinks that is plausible (though challenging), I wouldn't say that Samlee is completely off the mark.
 
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well yes, this is true for thar coal, to kick start the project

but Thar investment is private venture so i would say the only relevant part is that the return is 34%, 9loans were taken by engro), which is very high yet surprisingly the price is just 8.4 units which is cheaper than most sources of power. this offer was given based upon first comers/risk takers. it is no longer offered any more as engro took the risk. now further bidding will be competitive

the bigger scandal was quaid-i-azam solar park where even higher returns were offered than withdrawn, now we have legal problems

Thank you for the details.
 
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Just watch viedoes about air pollution in China where a haze covers the entire regions where coal plants are located. People wear masks in order not inhale polluted air. The honeybees have disappeared and the farmers are forced to pollinate crops with hands.
ٰI agree, but it's just an opportunity coming our way and the government has already jumped on it. That's why I am focusing on the wins instead of the negative side. In fact, we will not rely solely on coal. We'll have other solar and hydro projects as well.
 
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