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Why war with Pakistan — is not an option!
Global Village Space |
Raghu Raman |
In the 1983 film WarGames, a nuclear war simulation is accidentally started by a supercomputer designed to take over in event of the cold war spiraling out of control. After evaluating all the possibilities, the computer declares that “war is a strange game, in which the only winning move – is not to play”. That advice is possibly the trust for India right now.
That era of “decisive” short wars – especially in the context of an Indo-Pak war is largely over.
For all the xenophobic warmongering touted in every medium, India cannot ‘win’ a war against Pakistan and the sooner we appreciate this politico-military reality, the more coherent and serious we will sound to our adversaries and the world community. The demands for a ‘once and for all’ resolution of Kashmir/Pakistan emanating from several quarters, which surprisingly includes some veterans – equating India’s non-retaliation with impotence – perhaps don’t factor the larger picture and the stark truth of modern military warfare.
Read more: India’s first use Nuclear Policy: Should Pakistan be worried?
Matter of fact, short of total genocide, no country regardless of its war-withal can hope to achieve a decisive victory with a ‘short war’ in today’s world. As the US is discovering eight years, trillion dollars and over 25,000 casualties later – in Afghanistan. That era of “decisive” short wars – especially in the context of an Indo-Pak war is largely over because of several reasons.
Firstly – the much vaunted Indian military superiority is largely an accounting subterfuge. Sure we have more soldiers, tanks, aircraft, and ships than Pakistan, but banking on mere numbers is misleading and irrelevant in military strategy. Pakistan has successfully locked down over 30% of our Army in internal counter-insurgency roles that not only sucks in combat troops from their primary roles for prolonged periods but also alienates the local population in the valley.
Pakistan and China have achieved military interoperability – which is the capability of their two armies to execute joint missions against a common target.
The major reason of the Pakistani Op Gibraltar’s failure in 1965, was the overwhelming loyalty of Kashmiri locals towards India. Disguised Pakistani troops who had infiltrated into the valley to incite rebellions were caught by the locals and promptly handed over to the Indian security forces. 50 years later, sentiment in the valley is very different. And this ‘turning move’ has been achieved by Pakistan with a ridiculously low investment of merely a few hundred terrorists and psychological operations.
Another substantial part of our Army is locked down in the North East insurgency and we are still trying to build adequate force levels against our much stronger adversary all along our border with China. India’s Chinese front is in a tenuous state because of decades of neglect and the massive infrastructure China has built to be able to mobilize several divisions in a matter of hours into that theater.
Read full article:
Why war with Pakistan — is not an option!
Global Village Space |
Raghu Raman |
In the 1983 film WarGames, a nuclear war simulation is accidentally started by a supercomputer designed to take over in event of the cold war spiraling out of control. After evaluating all the possibilities, the computer declares that “war is a strange game, in which the only winning move – is not to play”. That advice is possibly the trust for India right now.
That era of “decisive” short wars – especially in the context of an Indo-Pak war is largely over.
For all the xenophobic warmongering touted in every medium, India cannot ‘win’ a war against Pakistan and the sooner we appreciate this politico-military reality, the more coherent and serious we will sound to our adversaries and the world community. The demands for a ‘once and for all’ resolution of Kashmir/Pakistan emanating from several quarters, which surprisingly includes some veterans – equating India’s non-retaliation with impotence – perhaps don’t factor the larger picture and the stark truth of modern military warfare.
Read more: India’s first use Nuclear Policy: Should Pakistan be worried?
Matter of fact, short of total genocide, no country regardless of its war-withal can hope to achieve a decisive victory with a ‘short war’ in today’s world. As the US is discovering eight years, trillion dollars and over 25,000 casualties later – in Afghanistan. That era of “decisive” short wars – especially in the context of an Indo-Pak war is largely over because of several reasons.
Firstly – the much vaunted Indian military superiority is largely an accounting subterfuge. Sure we have more soldiers, tanks, aircraft, and ships than Pakistan, but banking on mere numbers is misleading and irrelevant in military strategy. Pakistan has successfully locked down over 30% of our Army in internal counter-insurgency roles that not only sucks in combat troops from their primary roles for prolonged periods but also alienates the local population in the valley.
Pakistan and China have achieved military interoperability – which is the capability of their two armies to execute joint missions against a common target.
The major reason of the Pakistani Op Gibraltar’s failure in 1965, was the overwhelming loyalty of Kashmiri locals towards India. Disguised Pakistani troops who had infiltrated into the valley to incite rebellions were caught by the locals and promptly handed over to the Indian security forces. 50 years later, sentiment in the valley is very different. And this ‘turning move’ has been achieved by Pakistan with a ridiculously low investment of merely a few hundred terrorists and psychological operations.
Another substantial part of our Army is locked down in the North East insurgency and we are still trying to build adequate force levels against our much stronger adversary all along our border with China. India’s Chinese front is in a tenuous state because of decades of neglect and the massive infrastructure China has built to be able to mobilize several divisions in a matter of hours into that theater.
Read full article:
Why war with Pakistan — is not an option!
