Why the Taliban wont succeed in Afghanistan now!

[Abu Zolfiqar]

Afghanistan is such a fragmented and factionalized country. It's kind of been that way always, alas.

Areas of Afghanistan - especially in the East will likely be administered by Taleban. That's why the NATOs/west are eager for talks with them. Afghans should be grateful that Pakistan released Bahadur recently from detention -- as he was seen as a possibly successful mediator

what is obvious though is that Karzai will not last long at all; and that is good for Pakistan. In fact, from our perspective it will be a blessing.

terrorist groups such as BLA, and their supporters and financiers ---whether they be in the garb of NGOs or even such things as mini "consulates" of sorts....well, we know how they will turn out.


Reconciliation however is the most ideal thing for Afghanistan. But that is up to Afghans; they will need to get the shards of glass out from under their feet and try acting like one nation - if they really are one.

 

[Abu Zolfiqar]

When Pakistan cannot control Taliban inside their own country, it is the height of wishful thinking to control them in Afghanistan.

Rather, Taliban controlling Pakistan is far more likely.

if that were the case, then why does TTP have zero control in Swat, Bahrain, Dir, Buner, South Waziristan or much of Kurram?

thanks to better intel and vigilance (knock on wood) their bombing campaigns have subsided drastically; their arms caches are being uncovered (much from across the border --surely with some largess coming from another enemy country of ours)

as for the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (as they call themselves) -- it's hard to say what will happen. But it's obvious that since NATO is eager to save face and leave with dignity, the former is in a position of strength.

what Pakistan doesn't need (simply put) is moronic idiots in political positions suggesting that we engage in peace talks with ANY terrorist groups; be they TTP and like-minded factions, the Uzbeks/Arab jihadis holed up along the border areas as well as BLA - which is supported by your RAW (common knowledge now)

 

[Partharjun]

if that were the case, then why does TTP have zero control in Swat, Bahrain, Dir, Buner, South Waziristan or much of Kurram?

thanks to better intel and vigilance (knock on wood) their bombing campaigns have subsided drastically; their arms caches are being uncovered (much from across the border --surely with some largess coming from another enemy country of ours)

as for the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (as they call themselves) -- it's hard to say what will happen. But it's obvious that since NATO is eager to save face and leave with dignity, the former is in a position of strength.

what Pakistan doesn't need (simply put) is moronic idiots in political positions suggesting that we engage in peace talks with ANY terrorist groups; be they TTP and like-minded factions, the Uzbeks/Arab jihadis holed up along the border areas as well as BLA - which is supported by your RAW (common knowledge now)

I think the fundamental mistake you can make is to treat it as a law and order problem. It is Islamic fundamentalism mixed with ethnic issues. After all, wish as you may, the Durand line is not a "national" boundary. Unearthing of arms cache or hide and seek peace talks with one group or another hardly addresses the underlying dynamics.

The real problem is that Pakistan's long term support for Fundamentalist groups has caused a blow back in that a significant proportion of Pakistan's polity, citizenry and the armed forces are now infected with the same virus. Add to this the trans Durand tribal and ethnic morass, and I do not see any easy way Pakistan can extricate itself.

The foreign powers, including India, will certainly use this as an opportunity. But they, Pakistan itself is not innocent of playing this brand of Non state asset strategy.

 

[Sher Malang]

Good read but me the one living in this country can clearly say that Taliban is no more a threat, they are now a corny issue believe it or not this whole year for the first time in this decade people had very less fear and talk about Taliban; Taliban are weaker then ever at every category which they had leverage couple of years ago. With the high blood price ANSF paid this year, Taliban miserably failed to achieve their favorite planned targets and lost many of their men compared to the combats with US/NATO an year earlier.

We have successfully completed the 'security' transition, proved it worthy by action this year and the next is 'political' transition which is also very near only months to come but the last one will be 'economic' transition quitting the foreign aid and building our own economy which will take a decade to be implemented.

Bearing all this in mind, I still favor talks with all anti-Afghanistan groups including Taliban (the Afghan ones not foreigners) to make a dead end to this unpopular war.

PS: Our relations with Pakistan is getting better day by day too and we both as neighbors have many obligations towards each other I am sure relations will be improved between Afghanistan and Pakistan steadily.

 

[Secur]

IMF dollout or was it soft loan which Pakistan would never pay back.

Try not to get banned before you complete even 100 posts .