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Why China is taking over the ‘American century’

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Why China is taking over the ‘American century’
Instead of recouping its former technological prowess, the US relies on China-bashing and tech bans
By DILIP HIROAUGUST 19, 2020

For the Trump administration’s senior officials, it has been open season on bashing China. If you need an example, think of the president’s blame game about “the invisible Chinese virus” as it spreads wildly across the US.

When it comes to China, in fact, the ever more virulent criticism never seems to stop.

Between the end of June and the end of July, four members of President Donald Trump’s cabinet vied with one another in spewing anti-Chinese rhetoric. That particular spate of China bashing started when FBI Director Christopher Wray described Chinese President Xi Jinping as the successor to Soviet dictator Josef Stalin.

It was capped by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s clarion call to US allies to note the “bankrupt” Marxist-Leninist ideology of China’s leader and the urge to “global hegemony” that goes with it, insisting that they would have to choose “between freedom and tyranny.” (Forget which country on this planet actually claims global hegemony as its right.)

At the same time, the Pentagon deployed its aircraft carriers and other weaponry ever more threateningly in the South China Sea and elsewhere in the Pacific.

The question is: What lies behind this upsurge in Trump administration China baiting? A likely answer can be found in the president’s blunt statement in a July interview with Chris Wallace of Fox News that “I’m not a good loser. I don’t like to lose.”

The reality is that, under Donald Trump, the United States is indeed losing to China in two important spheres. As Wray put it, “In economic and technical terms [China] is already a peer competitor of the United States … in a very different kind of [globalized] world.”

In other words, China is rising and the US is falling. Don’t just blame Trump and his cronies for that, however, as this moment has been a long time coming.

Facts speak for themselves. Nearly unscathed by the 2008-09 global recession, China displaced Japan as the world’s second-largest economy in August 2010. In 2012, with US$3.87 trillion worth of imports and exports, it overtook the US total of $3.82 trillion, elbowing it out of a position it had held for 60 years as the No 1 cross-border trading nation worldwide.

By the end of 2014, China’s gross domestic product, as measured by purchasing power parity, was $17.6 trillion, slightly exceeding the $17.4 trillion of the United States, which had been the globe’s largest economy since 1872.

In May 2015, the Chinese government released a “Made in China 2025” plan aimed at rapidly developing 10 high-tech industries, including electric cars, next-generation information technology, telecommunications, advanced robotics, and artificial intelligence.

Other major sectors covered in the plan included agricultural technology, aerospace engineering, the development of new synthetic materials, the emerging field of biomedicine, and high-speed rail infrastructure.

The plan was aimed at achieving 70% self-sufficiency in high-tech industries and a dominant position in such global markets by 2049, a century after the founding of the People’s Republic of China.

Semiconductors are crucial to all electronic products and, in 2014, the government’s national integrated-circuit industry development guidelines set a target: China was to become a global leader in semiconductors by 2030.

In 2018, the local chip industry moved up from basic silicon packing and testing to higher-value chip design and manufacturing. The following year, the US Semiconductor Industry Association noted that, while America led the world with nearly half of global market share, China was the main threat to its position because of huge state investments in commercial manufacturing and scientific research.

study by Nanjing University’s Qingnan Xie and Harvard University’s Richard Freeman noted that between 2000 and 2016, China’s share of global publications in the physical sciences, engineering and math quadrupled, exceeding that of the US.

In 2019, for the first time since figures for patents were compiled in 1978, the US failed to file for the largest number of them. According to the World Intellectual Property Organization, China filed applications for 58,990 patents and the United States 57,840.

In addition, for the third year in a row, the Chinese high-tech corporation Huawei Technologies Company, with 4,144 patents, was well ahead of US-based Qualcomm (2,127).

Among educational institutions, the University of California maintained its top rank with 470 published applications, but Tsinghua University ranked second with 265. Of the top five universities in the world, three were Chinese.

Neck-and-neck race in consumer electronics
By 2019, the leaders in consumer technology in America included Google, Apple, Amazon and Microsoft; in China, the leaders were Alibaba (founded by Jack Ma), Tencent (Tengxun in Chinese), Xiaomi and Baidu. All had been launched by private citizens.

accounted for 85% of China’s high-tech exports.

Shaken by an official 2005 report that found serious flaws in the country’s innovation system, the government issued a policy paper the following year listing 20 mega-projects in nanotechnology, high-end generic microchips, aircraft, biotechnology, and new drugs. It then focused on a bottom-up approach to innovation, involving small startups, venture capital, and cooperation between industry and universities, a strategy that would take a few years to yield positive results.

In January 2000, less than 2% of Chinese used the Internet. To cater to that market, Robin Li and Eric Xu set up Baidu in Beijing as a Chinese search engine. By 2009, in its competition with Google China, a subsidiary of Google operating under government censorship, Baidu garnered twice the market share of its American rival as Internet penetration leapt to 29%.

In the aftermath of the 2008-09 global financial meltdown, significant numbers of Chinese engineers and entrepreneurs returned from Silicon Valley to play an important role in the mushrooming of high-tech firms in a vast Chinese market increasingly walled off from US and other Western corporations because of their unwillingness to operate under government censorship.

Soon after Xi Jinping became president in March 2013, his government launched a campaign to promote “mass entrepreneurship and mass innovation” using state-backed venture capital. That was when Tencent came up with its super-app WeChat, a multi-purpose platform for socializing, playing games, paying bills, booking train tickets, and so on.

Jack Ma’s e-commerce behemoth Alibaba went public on the New York Stock Exchange in September 2014, raising a record $25 billion with its initial public offering. By the end of the decade, Baidu had diversified into the field of artificial intelligence, while expanding its multiple Internet-related services and products. As the search engine of choice for 90% of Chinese Internet users, more than 700 million people, the company became the fifth-most-visited website in cyberspace, its mobile users exceeding 1.1 billion.

Xiaomi Corporation would release its first smartphone in August 2011. By 2014, it had forged ahead of its Chinese rivals in the domestic market and developed its own mobile-phone chip capabilities. In 2019, it sold 125 million mobile phones, ranking fourth globally.

By the middle of 2019, China had 206 privately held startups valued at more than $1 billion, besting the US with 203.

Among the country’s many successful entrepreneurs, the one who particularly stood out was Jack Ma, born Ma Yun in 1964. Though he failed to get a job at a newly opened Kentucky Fried Chicken outlet in his home city of Hangzhou, he did finally gain entry to a local college after his third attempt, buying his first computer at the age of 31.

In 1999, he founded Alibaba with a group of friends. It would become one of the most valuable tech companies in the world. On his 55th birthday, he was the second-richest man in China, with a net worth of $42.1 billion.

Born in the same year as Ma, his American counterpart, Jeff Bezos, gained a degree in electrical engineering and computer science from Princeton University. He would found Amazon.com in 1994 to sell books online, before entering e-commerce and other fields.

Amazon Web Services, a cloud computing company, would become the globe’s largest. In 2007, Amazon released a handheld reading device called the Kindle. Three years later, it ventured into making its own television shows and movies.

In 2014, it launched Amazon Echo, a smart speaker with a voice assistant named Alexa that let its owner instantly play music, control a smart home, and get information, news, weather, and more.

With a net worth of $145.4 billion in 2019, Bezos became the richest person on the planet.

Deploying an artificial-intelligence inference chip to power features on its e-commerce sites, Alibaba categorized a billion product images uploaded by vendors to its e-commerce platform daily and prepared them for search and personalized recommendations to its customer base of 500 million. By allowing outside vendors to use its platform for a fee, Amazon increased its items for sale to 350 million – with 197 million people accessing Amazon.com each month.

China also led the world in mobile payments, with the US in sixth place. In 2019, such transactions in China amounted to $80.5 trillion. Because of the Covid-19 pandemic, the authorities encouraged customers to use mobile payment, online payment, and barcode payment to avoid the risk of infection. The projected total for mobile payments: $111.1 trillion. The corresponding figures for the United States at $130 billion look puny by comparison.

In August 2012, the founder of the Beijing-based ByteDance, 29-year-old Zhang Yiming, broke new ground in aggregating news for its users. His product, Toutiao (Today’s Headlines), tracked users’ behavior across thousands of sites to form an opinion of what would interest them most, and then recommended stories.

By 2016, it had already acquired 78 million users, 90% of them under 30.

In September 2016, ByteDance launched a short-video app in China called Douyin that gained 100 million users within a year. It would soon enter a few Asian markets as TikTok. In November 2017, for $1 billion, ByteDance would purchase Musical.ly, a Shanghai-based social-network app for video creation, messaging, and live broadcasting, and set up an office in California.

Zhang merged it into TikTok in August 2018 to give his company a larger footprint in the US and then spent nearly $1 billion to promote TikTok as the platform for sharing short-dance, lip-sync, comedy, and talent videos. It has been downloaded by 165 million Americans and driven the Trump administration to distraction.

A Generation Z craze, in April 2020 it surpassed 2 billion downloads globally, eclipsing US tech giants. That led President Trump (no loser he!) and his top officials to attack it, and he would sign executive orders attempting to ban both TikTok and WeChat from operating in the US or being used by Americans (unless sold to a US tech giant). Stay tuned.

Huawei’s octane-powered rise
But the biggest Chinese winner in consumer electronics and telecommunications has been Shenzhen-based Huawei Technologies Company, the country’s first global multinational. It has become a pivot point in the geopolitical battle between Beijing and Washington.

Huawei (in Chinese, it means “splendid achievement”) makes phones and the routers that facilitate communications around the world. Established in 1987, its current workforce of 194,000 operates in 170 countries. In 2019, its annual turnover was $122.5 billion.

In 2012, it outstripped its nearest rival, the 136-year-old Ericsson Telephone Corporation of Sweden, to become the world’s largest supplier of telecommunications equipment, with 28% of market share globally. In 2019, it forged ahead of Apple to become the second-largest phone maker after Samsung.

Several factors have contributed to Huawei’s stratospheric rise: its business model, the personality and decision-making mode of its founder Ren Zhengfei, state policies on high-tech industry, and the firm’s exclusive ownership by its employees.

Born in 1944 in Guizhou province, Ren Zhengfei went to Chongqing University and then joined a military research institute during Mao Zedong’s chaotic Cultural Revolution (1966-1976). He was demobilized in 1983 when China cut back on its engineering corps. But the army’s slogan, “fight and survive,” stayed with him. He moved to the city of Shenzhen and worked in the country’s infant electronics sector for four years, saving enough to co-found what would become the tech giant Huawei.

He focused on research and development, adapting technologies from Western firms, while his new company received small orders from the military and later substantial research and development grants from the state to develop GSM (Global System for Mobile Communication) phones and other products. Over the years, the company produced telecommunications infrastructure and commercial products for third-generation (3G) and 4G smartphones.

As China’s high-tech industry surged, Huawei’s fortunes rose. In 2010, it hired IBM and Accenture PLC to design the means of managing networks for telecom providers. In 2011, the company hired the Boston Consulting Group to advise it on foreign acquisitions and investments.

Like many successful American entrepreneurs, Ren has given top priority to the customer and, in the absence of the usual near-term pressure to raise income and profits, his management team has invested $15 billion to 20 billion annually in R&D work.

That helps explain how Huawei became one of the globe’s five companies in the 5G smartphone business, topping the list by shipping out 6.9 million phones in 2019 and capturing 36.9% of the market. On the eve of the release of 5G phones, Ren revealed that Huawei had a staggering 2,570 5G patents.

So it was unsurprising that in the global race for 5G, Huawei was the first to roll out commercial products in February 2019. One hundred times as fast as its 4G predecessors, 5G tops out at 10 gigabits per second, and future 5G networks are expected to link a huge array of devices, from cars to washing machines to doorbells.

Huawei’s exponential success has increasingly alarmed a Trump administration edging ever closer to conflict with China. Last month, Secretary of State Pompeo described Huawei as “an arm of the Chinese Communist Party’s surveillance state that censors political dissidents and enables mass internment camps in Xinjiang.”

In May 2019, the US Commerce Department banned American firms from supplying components and software to Huawei on national-security grounds. A year later, it imposed a ban on Huawei buying microchips from American companies or using US-designed software. The White House also launched a global campaign against the installation of the company’s 5G systems in allied nations, with mixed success.

Ren continued to deny such charges and to oppose Washington’s moves, which have so far failed to slow his company’s commercial advance. Its revenue for the first half of 2020, $65 billion, was up by 13.1% over the previous year.

From tariffs on Chinese products and that recent TikTok ban to slurs about the “kung flu” as the Covid-19 pandemic swept America, President Trump and his team have been expressing their mounting frustration over China and ramping up attacks on an inexorably rising power on the global stage. Whether they know it or not, the American century is over, which doesn’t mean that nothing can be done to improve the US position in the years to come.

Setting aside Washington’s belief in the inherent superiority of America, a future administration could stop hurling insults or trying to ban enviably successful Chinese tech firms and instead emulate the Chinese example by formulating and implementing a well-planned, long-term high-tech strategy. But as the Covid-19 pandemic has made abundantly clear, the very idea of planning is not a concept available to the “very stable genius” currently in the White House.

https://asiatimes.com/2020/08/why-china-is-taking-over-the-american-century/
 
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The author must have earned a lot of money for this article.

Instead of journalism,
it should be be placed as Fiction, fantasy, Sci-Fi piece.
 
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US is just a sore loser who refuses to admit the defeat.
Come on here ... why would any proud country admit defeat? And moreover, the US has clearly not been defeated yet. On the contrary, it is fighting back, with the Huawei sanctions and other actions against Chinese tech firms. Does this look like a defeated country to you?
The author must have earned a lot of money for this article.

Instead of journalism,
it should be be placed as Fiction, fantasy, Sci-Fi piece.
Are you just salty that the author did not include the "Indian century" here :rofl::rofl::rofl: ... stop your population from defacating in the streets, then we will talk about India joining the big boys club.
 
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1) In 2020 median age in China is 38,4 while USA's median age is 38,3---and China is aging very rapidly due to one child policy....in the near future average Chinese will be several years older than average American with all the consequences it will have for economy, (especially for Chinese desire to swith to economy based on consumption)

2) Total corporate/household/government debt in China is 320% of GDP and is growing very rapidly...Corporate debt alone is 190% of GDP...This is very high for a country at this level of economic development and increases the risk of financial crises similar to Japan in 1990s

3) Chinese Navy's power projection capabilities will be comparable to USA's only in 2040 or later

4) entire Chinese trade---its exports.... and its imports of food/oil/raw materials pass through the oceans controlled by the US Navy and this will not change until 2040.

(for example if USA decides to start a war with Iran in the Persian Gulf, oil supplies to China will stall and this will generate a massive economic shock to highly indebted Chinese economy...and CHina can do nothing about it due to power projection limits of PLA......at the same time USA has its own shale oil production and can be nearly immune to oil crisis in the Persian Gulf)

In general Chinese economic model is a copy of Japanese economic model.

Do you remember what happened with Japan?

In 1980 there was a Japanophobia in USA with concerns that Japan is going to overtake USA as a next superpower

At first Japan was growing 10% a year from 1950 until 1987 and then suddenly Japanese economic growth slowed to 1% a year from 1990 until 2020.

Japanese had high saving rates and this generated high level of investments and high rates of GDP growth.

There are three types of economic growth: 1)export driven growth 2)investment driven growth 3)consumption driven growth

When Japan exhausted all three types of growth models--- its economy stalled.

China is the same as Japan: high rate of savings generate high rates of investment and high rates of GDP growth

1) First Chinese economy grows through boosting exports (1984-2008)----in 2008 this model exhausted itself

2) Then China grows through boosting investments----it tells the local governments to borrow money from banks and build infrastructure and tells state owned companies to borrow money from banks and build new factories even if they are not very profitable----but as corporate debt is 190% of GDP (the highest in the world) and total debt is 320% of GDP-----investment driven growth is no longer possible

3) There is a hope to switch to economy based on consumption----but consumption is mainly made by younger generations---as China is aging rapidly---consumption driven growth is impossible

So probably Chinese economy will stall this decade like Japanese economy did in 1990, because all three types of growth (export driven/investment driven/consumption driven) is coming to their limits in China
 
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1) In 2020 median age in China is 38,4 while USA's median age is 38,3---and China is aging very rapidly due to one child policy....in the near future average Chinese will be several years older than average American with all the consequences it will have for economy, (especially for Chinese desire to swith to economy based on consumption)

2) Total corporate/household/government debt in China is 320% of GDP and is growing very rapidly...Corporate debt alone is 190% of GDP...This is very high for a country at this level of economic development and increases the risk of financial crises similar to Japan in 1990s

3) Chinese Navy's power projection capabilities will be comparable to USA's only in 2040 or later

4) entire Chinese trade---its exports.... and its imports of food/oil/raw materials pass through the oceans controlled by the US Navy and this will not change until 2040.

for example if USA decides to start a war with Iran in the Persian Gulf, oil supplies to China will stall and this will generate a massive economic shock to highly indebted Chinese economy...and CHina can do nothing about it due to power projection limits of PLA......at the same time USA has its own shale oil production and can be nearly immune to oil crisis in the Persian Gulf

In general Chinese economic model is a copy of Japanese economic model.

Do you remember what happened with Japan?

In 1980 there was a Japanophobia in USA with concerns that Japan is going to overtake USA as a next superpower

At first Japan was growing 10% a year from 1950 until 1987 and then suddenly Japanese economic growth slowed to 1% a year from 1990 until 2020.

Japanese had high saving rates and this generated high level of investments and high rates of GDP growth.

There are three types of economic growth: 1)export driven growth 2)investment driven growth 3)consumption driven growth

When Japan exhausted all three types of growth models--- its economy stalled.

China is the same: high rate of savings generate high rates of investment and high rates of GDP growth

1) First China grows through increasing exports 1980-2008----in 2008 this model exhausted itself

2) Then China grows through boosting investments----it tells the local governments to borrow money from banks and build infrastructure and tells state owned companies to borrow money from banks and build new factories even if they are not very profitable----but as corporate debt is 190% of GDP (the highest in the world) and total debt is 320% of GDP-----investment driven growth is no longer possible

3) There is a hope to switch to economy based on consumption----but consumption is mainly made by younger generations---as China is aging rapidly---consumption driven growth is impossible

So probably Chinese economy will stall this decade like Japanese economy did in 1990, because all three types of growth (export driven/investment driven/consumption driven) is coming to their limits in China
Japan's GDP in PPP term never surpassed US , Japan never became the world biggest trading nation, industrial nation and manufacturing nation. Comparing a massive nation with one fifth of the humanity with tiny Japan is just ridiculous, Japan is US slave and has to do all US biddings even at its own expenses, China dosen't toe US lines.

Now China's economy is recovering and picking up fast, and US economy is crashing with over 31% plummet. If US couldn't get its house in order from this virus and social chaos, the overtaking by China can happen in couples of years.
 
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Japan's GDP in PPP term never surpassed US , Japan never became the world biggest trading nation, industrial nation and manufacturing nation. Comparing a massive nation with one fifth of the humanity with tiny Japan is just ridiculous, Japan is US slave and has to do all US biddings even at its own expenses, China dosen't toe US lines.

Now China's economy is recovering and picking up fast, and US economy is crashing with over 31% plummet. If US couldn't get its house in order from this virus and social chaos, the overtaking by China can happen in couples of years.
Being the largest trading nation .....it is better to be self-sufficient with little dependence on exports

What will happen with CHina and its economy, if USA imposes a naval blockade
 
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Being the largest trading nation .....it is better to be self-sufficient with little dependence on exports

During the coronavirus, we are very self relaint, US was running out of everything including toilet paper and their medical workers were donning trashbags and their patients died due to lack of ventilators.
US relies too much on China, not the other way around.
 
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US will never do, they are not stupid enough to shoot themselves in the feet, wanna bet?
"If you take an entire Chinese naval force--it can not defeat a single US aircraft carrier battler group"--Peter Zeihan
 
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"If you take an entire Chinese naval force--it can not defeat a single US aircraft carrier battler group"--Peter Zeihan
This is called "self reliance"

China becomes world leader in industrial economy scale
Updated: 2019-09-23 17:05
China became the world leader on the industrial economy scale, with the digital economy scale reaching 31 trillion yuan ($4.36 trillion) in 2018, accounting for one-third of the country's GDP, Sina Finance reported on Monday.

China has become the only country in the world to obtain all the industrial categories listed in the United Nations industrial classification, said Miao Wei, minister of industry and information technology, at a news conference on Friday.

The industrial added value of the country saw an average annual growth of 11 percent from 12 billion yuan in 1952, to over 30 trillion yuan in 2018, Miao said.

The country's added value of the manufacturing industry accounted for over 28 percent of the world's total in 2018, becoming an important engine driving world industrial growth. Among the world's more than 500 major industrial products, China ranks first in output at over 220.

Statistics from the World Bank indicate the added value of China's manufacturing industry surpassed that of the United States to become the world's number one manufacturing country in 2010.

Meanwhile, the technological innovation capacity of China's industrial communications industry has greatly improved and the country has the largest number of necessary patents for 5G standards.

In the past 70 years, China's small and medium companies and private companies played an important role in increasing employment, keeping stable growth and stimulating innovation, according to Miao.

By the end of 2018, the number of small and middle-sized companies surpassed 30 million and the number of self-employed industrial and commercial households exceeded 70 million. These contributed over 50 percent of the country's tax revenue, over 60 percent of the GDP, over 70 percent of technological innovations and more than 80 percent of labor force employment.

Miao also emphasized the importance of promoting high-quality development of major technical equipment, including the homegrown large passenger plane the C919, which effectively promoted the upgrading of China's industrial technology and enhanced basic industrial capacity and the industrial chain on the one hand.

On the other hand, major technical equipment could also provide basic support to key areas in the national economic development, including energy, petrochemicals and transportation, Miao added.

China will continue to take supply-side structural reform as its main task, and work to address major weaknesses in research and development, engineering, and industrialization to enhance our innovation capabilities and promote the high-quality development of major technical equipment, according to Miao.
 
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Chinese economy has risen and developed far more rapidly then the USA expected. USA is using the same tactics (impose trade restrictions until demographic decline sets in) it used against Japan in 90's to try to stop or delay China surpassing it in most economic stats. China will surpass the USA irrespective, IMO. It is unlikely that USA will go to war against China directly. It may fight through proxies as in the first cold war.
 
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"If you take an entire Chinese naval force--it can not defeat a single US aircraft carrier battler group"--Peter Zeihan
We'll see, but this is another topic, being discussed in other threads many times already

2019 naval surface vessels launched by country in metric tons
3a6bq4p7kuy41.jpg



China’s vast fleet is tipping the balance in the Pacific
https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/china-army-navy/

China’s navy shipbuilders are ‘outbuilding everybody’
https://asiatimes.com/2020/03/chinas-navy-shipbuilders-are-outbuilding-
everybody/

China Can Sink American Ships Faster Than America Can Replace Them
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davida...r-than-america-can-replace-them/#59ce8d9e6b45
 
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