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Tiangong-1 2018 Reentry V1.0
Table of Contents
1. Introduction
2. The "12 March 2018" laser strikes event
3. Analysis of the post-"12 March 2018" event
4. Official Chinese statement after the post-"12 March 2018" event
5. The geomagnetic storm of 19 March 2018
6. The coup de grâce
7. Post-reentry analysis
1. Introduction
As all these questions can only expose how biased and ill-intentioned the Western propaganda machine is, hell-bent in smearing the ever more outstanding Chinese space achievements (due to desperation and jealousy as always), let us reassure all our Pakistani readers and other foes as well, with some clarifications.
China has been working on developing laser weapons since the 1960s, and the People’s Liberation Army in 2015 published the book Light War that gives a central role to fighting a future war using lasers.
As already disclosed by the media, China is known to have operated at least 3 ASAT laser stations, in Anhui, Sichuan and Xinjiang.
In 2005, Chinese researchers have successfully conducted a satellite-blinding experiment using a 50-100 kilowatt capacity mounted laser gun in Xinjiang province. The target was a low orbit satellite with a tilt distance of 600 kilometers. The diameter of the telescope firing the laser beam is 0.6 meters wide. The accuracy of acquisition, tracking and pointing is less than 5 microradians.
Three researchers, Gao Minghui, Zeng Yuquang and Wang Zhihong disclosed plan for even more powerful ASAT lasers in The Chinese Optics journal in December 2013.
All worked for the Changchun Institute for Optics, Fine Mechanics and Physics – the leading center for laser weapons technology.
The plan proposed the building of a 5-ton chemical laser as a combat platform capable of destroying satellites in orbit. Given funding by the Chinese military, which is in charge of China’s space program, the anti-satellite laser could be deployed by 2023.
Although high secrecy is strictly enforced, one could compare the case of Tiangong-1 space laboratory with the ill-fated Phobos-Grunt Mars probe, that reentered over the South Eastern Pacific Ocean on 15 January 2011.
There was no random reentry over highly populated area. This time Tiangong-1 will also reenter over the Pacific Ocean, in a remotely controlled mode.
This suggests that China will secretly use its laser ASAT stations, to produce a series of thrusts generated by heating the outer part of the spacecraft, thus lowering the perigee of Tiangong-1. Notice Tiangong-1 passes every day up to five times over China, heading south-Eastward toward the south Pacific.
Upon reaching the ultimate ~140 km altitude threshold, where a complete orbit is no longer possible, the coup de grâce will be given by piercing the forward part of the pressurized module, thus allowing all the remaining gaz to escape at high velocity, and generating an additional negative vector thrust (think of a coca cola bottle).
Alternately, by piercing the propellant tank (i.e. Hydrazine) would even provide a more powerfull thrust, but the targeting requires a higher accuracy.
If this procedure succeedes, this would eventually allow a safe reentry half an orbit later over the predesignated area over the Pacific Ocean.
This is the least China could do, as even North Korea has already disclosed its own Korean-style Anti-Meteor Laser System, needed to protect its planned future Lunar base, back in a New Year 2018 show!
▲ Map of Tiangong-1 ground track
▲ An official map of the Phobos-Grunt reentry released by Roskosmos by 20:00 Moscow Time on Jan. 15, 2012.
Notice the similarity with Tiangong-1 regarding the relative location of the impact zone and the ASAT laser stations!
▲ Space imagery of Tianshan ASAT laser station. 中国天山部署战略反卫星激光武器
▲ At T=40:54 North Korean Lunar base hit by meteor shower; Video published on Jan 1, 2018
▲ 10 North Korean astronauts combining beams of laser to thwart a meteor shower as depicted in a New Year 2018 show
▲ At T=40:54 North Korean Lunar base hit by meteor shower; At T=41:33 Combined laser beams used to protect the North Korean Lunar base from meteor shower, in a New Year 2018 show. Video published on Jan 1, 2018
2. The "12 March 2018" laser strikes event
Update confirming my previous assessment: The Chinese PLA ASAT laser stations seem to have already proceeded with their first in a series to come corrective laser surgical pinpoint accuracy strikes, as shown in the sudden increased decay rate of Tiangong-1 correlated by the official TLE of March 12!
Target in range, all PLA Laser Stations ready to fire!
▲ It is clearly visible an anomalous burst from the TLE 18070.1268 (March 11) to 18072.1107 (March 13), 6 consecutive TLEs.
▲ After the big variation in the decay rate on March 12, the totally controlled reentry is predicted at a slightly earlier date: 2-3 April 2018
▲ Groundtrack of a very good pass of Tiangong-1 over China's laser stations on 12 March 2018, especially a frontal approach over Tianshan ASAT station!
▲ Attitude and Inclination of Tiangong-1, as of 14 March 2018: totally controlled reentry is predicted for 2-3 April 2018
Coincidence? I think not!
3. Analysis of the post-"12 March 2018" event
Latest post-"12 March 2018" astrophotographies of China's orbital space laboratory Tiangong-1
Notice the regular and constant brightness of the path, indicating a stable attitude with no tumbling after the first laser strikes!
▲ TIANGONG 1 pass captured from Tanegashima on 13 March 2018, 19:06~18:08 JST, 10 seconds x 6, fisheye, APS-C10 mm, PENTAX K-5II s
Estimated Magnitude: 1.3
▲ TIANGONG 1 pass captured from Tanegashima on 14 March 2018, 18:54~18:56 JST, 5 seconds x 21, f/4 ISO 100, APS-C10 mm, PENTAX K-5II s
Estimated Magnitude: 0.5
For comparison, Tiangong-2, without any tumbling and with stable attitude:
▲ TIANGONG 2 pass between Arcturus and Uras Major captured from Tanegashima on 12 March 2018, 5:20~5:21 JST, 20 seconds x 4, f/3.2, ISO 2500, APS-C21 mm, PENTAX K-5II s
Estimated Magnitude: 1.0
4. Official Chinese statement after the post-"12 March 2018" event
More smoking gun, or rather smoking lasers!
Chinese official statement, suggesting a successful first series of laser strikes:
"
Coincidence? I think not!
5. The geomagnetic storm of 19 March 2018
Due to severe space weather caused by solar activities, a geomagnetic storm on 19 March 2018 is resulting in an increased decay rate, accelerating the date of reentry of Tiangong-1, around 3 April±1 day.
▲ Geomagnetic storm on 19 March 2018
Radar imagery indicating a good physical integrity of Tiangong-1, allowing the final coup de grâce that will be given by piercing the forward part of the pressurized module, thus allowing all the remaining gaz to escape at high velocity, and generating an additional negative vector thrust (think of a coca cola bottle). This would eventually allow a safe reentry half an orbit later over the predesignated area over the Pacific Ocean.
▲ Tiangong-1 image taken with radiotelescope at Fraunhofer on 21.3.2018
▲ Tiangong-1 image taken with radiotelescope at Fraunhofer on 21.3.2018
6. The coup de grâce
TBD
7. Post-reentry analysis
TBD
Table of Contents
1. Introduction
2. The "12 March 2018" laser strikes event
3. Analysis of the post-"12 March 2018" event
4. Official Chinese statement after the post-"12 March 2018" event
5. The geomagnetic storm of 19 March 2018
6. The coup de grâce
7. Post-reentry analysis
1. Introduction
As all these questions can only expose how biased and ill-intentioned the Western propaganda machine is, hell-bent in smearing the ever more outstanding Chinese space achievements (due to desperation and jealousy as always), let us reassure all our Pakistani readers and other foes as well, with some clarifications.
China has been working on developing laser weapons since the 1960s, and the People’s Liberation Army in 2015 published the book Light War that gives a central role to fighting a future war using lasers.
As already disclosed by the media, China is known to have operated at least 3 ASAT laser stations, in Anhui, Sichuan and Xinjiang.
In 2005, Chinese researchers have successfully conducted a satellite-blinding experiment using a 50-100 kilowatt capacity mounted laser gun in Xinjiang province. The target was a low orbit satellite with a tilt distance of 600 kilometers. The diameter of the telescope firing the laser beam is 0.6 meters wide. The accuracy of acquisition, tracking and pointing is less than 5 microradians.
Three researchers, Gao Minghui, Zeng Yuquang and Wang Zhihong disclosed plan for even more powerful ASAT lasers in The Chinese Optics journal in December 2013.
All worked for the Changchun Institute for Optics, Fine Mechanics and Physics – the leading center for laser weapons technology.
The plan proposed the building of a 5-ton chemical laser as a combat platform capable of destroying satellites in orbit. Given funding by the Chinese military, which is in charge of China’s space program, the anti-satellite laser could be deployed by 2023.
Although high secrecy is strictly enforced, one could compare the case of Tiangong-1 space laboratory with the ill-fated Phobos-Grunt Mars probe, that reentered over the South Eastern Pacific Ocean on 15 January 2011.
There was no random reentry over highly populated area. This time Tiangong-1 will also reenter over the Pacific Ocean, in a remotely controlled mode.
This suggests that China will secretly use its laser ASAT stations, to produce a series of thrusts generated by heating the outer part of the spacecraft, thus lowering the perigee of Tiangong-1. Notice Tiangong-1 passes every day up to five times over China, heading south-Eastward toward the south Pacific.
Upon reaching the ultimate ~140 km altitude threshold, where a complete orbit is no longer possible, the coup de grâce will be given by piercing the forward part of the pressurized module, thus allowing all the remaining gaz to escape at high velocity, and generating an additional negative vector thrust (think of a coca cola bottle).
Alternately, by piercing the propellant tank (i.e. Hydrazine) would even provide a more powerfull thrust, but the targeting requires a higher accuracy.
If this procedure succeedes, this would eventually allow a safe reentry half an orbit later over the predesignated area over the Pacific Ocean.
This is the least China could do, as even North Korea has already disclosed its own Korean-style Anti-Meteor Laser System, needed to protect its planned future Lunar base, back in a New Year 2018 show!
Notice the similarity with Tiangong-1 regarding the relative location of the impact zone and the ASAT laser stations!
https://defence.pk/pdf/attachments/...3/?temp_hash=a775523a2fc44b8a75ddd84168d9cac3
http://
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CxBj71x2wtE
http://
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CxBj71x2wtE
https://defence.pk/pdf/attachments/...5/?temp_hash=a775523a2fc44b8a75ddd84168d9cac3
https://c1.staticflickr.com/5/4671/38881704724_bc097d03e2_b.jpg
https://www.flickr.com/photos/dprktoday/38881704724/
https://c1.staticflickr.com/5/4671/38881704724_bc097d03e2_b.jpg
https://www.flickr.com/photos/dprktoday/38881704724/
https://defence.pk/pdf/attachments/...4/?temp_hash=a775523a2fc44b8a75ddd84168d9cac3
http://
http://
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CxBj71x2wtE
http://
http://
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CxBj71x2wtE
______________________________________
2. The "12 March 2018" laser strikes event
Update confirming my previous assessment: The Chinese PLA ASAT laser stations seem to have already proceeded with their first in a series to come corrective laser surgical pinpoint accuracy strikes, as shown in the sudden increased decay rate of Tiangong-1 correlated by the official TLE of March 12!
Target in range, all PLA Laser Stations ready to fire!
▲ It is clearly visible an anomalous burst from the TLE 18070.1268 (March 11) to 18072.1107 (March 13), 6 consecutive TLEs.
▲ After the big variation in the decay rate on March 12, the totally controlled reentry is predicted at a slightly earlier date: 2-3 April 2018
https://defence.pk/pdf/attachments/...2/?temp_hash=830ea009297af6bd801354cea69d77ff
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DYQMBjVUMAE1kHU.jpg
https://twitter.com/maki_naruto/status/973917021594255361
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DYQMBjVUMAE1kHU.jpg
https://twitter.com/maki_naruto/status/973917021594255361
Coincidence? I think not!
______________________________________
3. Analysis of the post-"12 March 2018" event
Latest post-"12 March 2018" astrophotographies of China's orbital space laboratory Tiangong-1
Notice the regular and constant brightness of the path, indicating a stable attitude with no tumbling after the first laser strikes!
https://defence.pk/pdf/attachments/...1/?temp_hash=e4d24499e00af15d7774fb0ec52e7788
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DYKeyPDVoAIlcka.jpg
https://twitter.com/makkisse999/status/973515308710313984
#天宮1号 (TIANGONG 1)の通過を撮影。予報1.3等級、北西から東へ。最高通過点高度29°(方位28°)。3/13, 19:06~18:08 頃、太陽高度-10°。明るい＆雲多い,と状況悪かったが、ちらっと見えました。。 露出10秒x6枚 比較明合成, 対角魚眼 トリミング
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DYKeyPDVoAIlcka.jpg
https://twitter.com/makkisse999/status/973515308710313984
#天宮1号 (TIANGONG 1)の通過を撮影。予報1.3等級、北西から東へ。最高通過点高度29°(方位28°)。3/13, 19:06~18:08 頃、太陽高度-10°。明るい＆雲多い,と状況悪かったが、ちらっと見えました。。 露出10秒x6枚 比較明合成, 対角魚眼 トリミング
Estimated Magnitude: 1.3
https://defence.pk/pdf/attachments/...4/?temp_hash=830ea009297af6bd801354cea69d77ff
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DYPwEMcVMAArZN2.jpg
https://twitter.com/makkisse999/status/973886180964974593
#天宮1号 (TIANGONG 1)の通過を撮影。予報0.5等級、北西から東へ。最高通過点高度48°(方位31°)。18:54~18:56 頃、太陽高度-7~-8°。昨日よりも更に明るいが雲は無かった。目視出来たような・・・。画像調整強。 露出5秒x21枚 比較明合成, 対角魚眼 トリミング
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DYPwEMcVMAArZN2.jpg
https://twitter.com/makkisse999/status/973886180964974593
#天宮1号 (TIANGONG 1)の通過を撮影。予報0.5等級、北西から東へ。最高通過点高度48°(方位31°)。18:54~18:56 頃、太陽高度-7~-8°。昨日よりも更に明るいが雲は無かった。目視出来たような・・・。画像調整強。 露出5秒x21枚 比較明合成, 対角魚眼 トリミング
Estimated Magnitude: 0.5
For comparison, Tiangong-2, without any tumbling and with stable attitude:
https://defence.pk/pdf/attachments/...2/?temp_hash=e4d24499e00af15d7774fb0ec52e7788
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DYCk-4zU0AA1E2P.jpg
https://twitter.com/makkisse999/status/972959236274601984
#天宮2号 (TIANGONG-2)の通過を撮影。3月12日 5:20~5:21, 予報1.0等級。最高通過点高度67°。影出からMax高度を少し過ぎたあたりまで。アルクトゥルスと北斗七星の間を通過。1、2枚目が空いたのは連写用レリーズのロック忘れ。 追尾(ポータブル赤道儀) 露出20秒×4枚 比較明合成,
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DYCk-4zU0AA1E2P.jpg
https://twitter.com/makkisse999/status/972959236274601984
#天宮2号 (TIANGONG-2)の通過を撮影。3月12日 5:20~5:21, 予報1.0等級。最高通過点高度67°。影出からMax高度を少し過ぎたあたりまで。アルクトゥルスと北斗七星の間を通過。1、2枚目が空いたのは連写用レリーズのロック忘れ。 追尾(ポータブル赤道儀) 露出20秒×4枚 比較明合成,
Estimated Magnitude: 1.0
______________________________________
4. Official Chinese statement after the post-"12 March 2018" event
More smoking gun, or rather smoking lasers!
Chinese official statement, suggesting a successful first series of laser strikes:
"
Descent of China’s Tiangong-1 will not cause damage to earth: expert
March 14, 2018
According to the latest information issued by China’s manned space engineering office, since Feb. 25 to Mar. 4, 2018, Tiangong-1 was orbiting in stable condition and good shape at an average height of about 251.5 kilometers (perigee height: 238.6 km; apogee height: 264.4 km; orbital inclination: 42.79 degrees).
China has been monitoring Tiangong-1, Zhu said, adding that the space lab will burn up after entering the atmosphere and the remaining wreckage will fall into a designated area of the sea, without endangering the Earth’s surface.
Aerospace expert Pang Zhihao explained that an international tradition to handle retired large spacecrafts operated at near-earth orbits is to let them fall to an abyssal zone in southern Pacific Ocean far away from the continents.
Being called the “graveyard of spacecraft”, the water was the falling location for Mir space station and Progress spacecraft of Russia, and the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory of the US, Pang added.
http://en.people.cn/n3/2018/0314/c90000-9437070.html
March 14, 2018
According to the latest information issued by China’s manned space engineering office, since Feb. 25 to Mar. 4, 2018, Tiangong-1 was orbiting in stable condition and good shape at an average height of about 251.5 kilometers (perigee height: 238.6 km; apogee height: 264.4 km; orbital inclination: 42.79 degrees).
China has been monitoring Tiangong-1, Zhu said, adding that the space lab will burn up after entering the atmosphere and the remaining wreckage will fall into a designated area of the sea, without endangering the Earth’s surface.
Aerospace expert Pang Zhihao explained that an international tradition to handle retired large spacecrafts operated at near-earth orbits is to let them fall to an abyssal zone in southern Pacific Ocean far away from the continents.
Being called the “graveyard of spacecraft”, the water was the falling location for Mir space station and Progress spacecraft of Russia, and the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory of the US, Pang added.
http://en.people.cn/n3/2018/0314/c90000-9437070.html
,,
Coincidence? I think not!
______________________________________
5. The geomagnetic storm of 19 March 2018
Due to severe space weather caused by solar activities, a geomagnetic storm on 19 March 2018 is resulting in an increased decay rate, accelerating the date of reentry of Tiangong-1, around 3 April±1 day.
https://defence.pk/pdf/attachments/...7/?temp_hash=830ea009297af6bd801354cea69d77ff
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DY0gAXLVwAE2J5h.jpg
https://twitter.com/maki_naruto/status/976472731217641472
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DY0gAXLVwAE2J5h.jpg
https://twitter.com/maki_naruto/status/976472731217641472
Radar imagery indicating a good physical integrity of Tiangong-1, allowing the final coup de grâce that will be given by piercing the forward part of the pressurized module, thus allowing all the remaining gaz to escape at high velocity, and generating an additional negative vector thrust (think of a coca cola bottle). This would eventually allow a safe reentry half an orbit later over the predesignated area over the Pacific Ocean.
______________________________________
6. The coup de grâce
TBD
______________________________________
7. Post-reentry analysis
TBD
Attachments
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