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On Russia's position in the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia
20 October 2020
The overwhelming majority of Russians are aware of the long-standing dispute between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the territorial ownership of Nagorno-Karabakh. People also know about the resumption of the conflict. As a rule, it is believed that both parties are equally to blame. Also, most often people say that they treat both countries - participants of the confrontation equally. As for forecasts, 29% of Russians are confident that the conflict will continue, 40% think that it will begin to subside.
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Do you know that there is a long-standing dispute between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the territorial affiliation of Nagorno-Karabakh, or have you heard anything about it?
DATA IN% OF THE INTERESTED
%
87%
Известно
12%
Ничего не слышал(-а)
1%
Затрудняюсь ответить
Do you know, have you heard something or hear for the first time now that at the end of September, after several years of armistice, the armed conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh resumed?
DATA IN% OF THE INTERESTED
%
57%
Знаю
27%
Что-то слышал(-а)
15%
Слышу впервые
Are you following closely, not very closely or not at all following the news about the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh?
DATA IN% OF THE INTERESTED
The question was asked to those who know or have heard something about the resumption of the conflict around Nagorno-Karabakh, - answered 85% of respondents
28%
I follow closely
42%
I don't follow very closely
fourteen%
Do not follow
1%
I am at a loss to answer
What sources do you mainly get news about the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh from?
DATA IN% OF THE INTERESTED
The question was asked to those who know or have heard something about the resumption of the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, with the exception of those who do not follow the news about the conflict - answered 70% of respondents
43%
From TV and radio programs
17%
From news sites on the internet
6%
From social networks, messengers
3%
From relatives, friends, acquaintances
0%
From newspapers and print media
1%
I am at a loss to answer
The participants in the conflict explain the events in different ways, accusing each other of the beginning of hostilities. Which side do you think is more to blame for the resumption of the armed conflict - Azerbaijan or Armenia?
DATA IN% OF THE INTERESTED
The question was asked to those who know or have heard something about the resumption of the conflict around Nagorno-Karabakh, - answered 85% of respondents
nine%
Azerbaijan
8%
Both sides, but to a greater extent - Azerbaijan
41%
Both sides equally
2%
Both sides, but to a greater extent - Armenia
2%
Armenia
23%
I am at a loss to answer
And personally, in the current situation, do you rather sympathize with Azerbaijan or Armenia? Or do you treat both sides of the conflict equally?
DATA IN% OF THE INTERESTED
The question was asked to those who know about the long-standing dispute over the territorial affiliation of Nagorno-Karabakh and those who know or have heard something about the resumption of the conflict, - 92% of respondents answered
2%
I rather sympathize with Azerbaijan
12%
Rather sympathize with Armenia
71%
I treat both sides of the conflict equally
7%
I am at a loss to answer
What position do you think Russia should now take: support Azerbaijan, support Armenia or not support either side?
DATA IN% OF THE INTERESTED
The question was asked to those who are aware of the long-standing dispute over the territorial affiliation of Nagorno-Karabakh, and to those who heard about the resumption of the conflict - 92% of respondents answered
1%
Support Azerbaijan
8%
Support Armenia
59%
Support neither side
24%
I am at a loss to answer
Why, in your opinion, should Russia support Azerbaijan?
DATA IN% OF THE INTERESTED
Open question. Was asked to think that Russia should support Azerbaijan, - 1% of respondents answered
Show Answers
All Answers
1%
Difficult to answer, no answer
<1%
Why, in your opinion, should Russia support Armenia?
DATA IN% OF THE INTERESTED
Open question. Was asked to think that Russia should support Armenia, - 8% of respondents answered
Show Answers
Armenia is a union state, friendly to Russia
3%
This is the responsibility of Russia under the CSTO treaty
2%
Armenians are Christian brothers
1%
Armenia is right in this conflict
1%
Armenia is a calmer, more peaceful country
1%
Other
1%
Difficult to answer, no answer
2%
Why, in your opinion, shouldn't Russia support either side?
DATA IN% OF THE INTERESTED
Open question. Asked those who think that Russia should not support either side, - 59% of respondents answered
Show Answers
You cannot interfere in the affairs of other states, they must resolve the conflict between them themselves
20%
Russia must deal with internal problems
nine%
Armenia and Azerbaijan are friendly countries to us, you can lose contact with one of them
8%
Russia should try to reconcile the parties
6%
Russia can be dragged into hostilities, Russians will die
five%
Support from one of the two parties can worsen the situation
4%
Russia may be to blame
3%
Russia must be neutral
2%
Armenia moved away from Russia
1%
Other
1%
Difficult to answer, no answer
6%
Some believe that Russia should do everything in its power to end the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Others believe that Russia should not be very active on this issue. Which point of view is closer to you?
DATA IN% OF GROUPS
The question was asked to those who are aware of the long-standing dispute over the territorial affiliation of Nagorno-Karabakh, and to those who heard about the resumption of the conflict - 92% of respondents answered
47%
Rather the first (Russia must do everything in its power to end the conflict)
39%
Rather the second (Russia should not be very active in this matter)
6%
I am at a loss to answer
Rather the first (Russia must do everything in its power to end the conflict)
Rather the second (Russia should not be very active in this matter)
I am at a loss to answer
General population
47
39
6
18-30 years old
33
44
five
31-45 years old
36
45
6
46-60 years old
55
38
6
Over 60 years old
63
27
7
0255075100
Rather the first (Russia must do everything in its power to end the conflict)
Rather the second (Russia should not be very active in this matter)
I am at a loss to answer
General population
47
39
6
Secondary general education and below
50
32
4
Secondary special education
48
38
6
Higher education
44
44
7
0255075100
What actions, in your opinion, should Russia take to end the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia?
DATA IN% OF THE INTERESTED
Open question. Was asked by those who think that Russia should do everything in its power to end the conflict, - answered 47% of respondents
Show Answers
Organize diplomatic negotiations, mediate these negotiations
29%
Introduce peacekeeping forces into an armed conflict zone
2%
To teach a lesson, to take tough force measures
1%
Influence the situation with economic leverage
1%
Other
2%
Difficult to answer, no answer
fourteen%
Do you think the aggravation of the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh will continue in the near future or will it begin to subside?
DATA IN% OF THE INTERESTED
The question was asked to those who know about the long-standing dispute over the territorial affiliation of Nagorno-Karabakh and those who know or have heard something about the resumption of the conflict, - 92% of respondents answered
29%
Will continue
40%
Will begin to subside
22%
I am at a loss to answer
Data source: All-Russian telephone survey of citizens of the Russian Federation 18 years old and older on October 9-11, 2020, 1000 respondents. The error stat does not exceed 3.8%.
Until March 22, 2020, FOMnibus, a weekly all-Russian apartment poll, was conducted. 53 constituent entities of the Russian Federation, 104 settlements, 1500 respondents.
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FOM poll: 12% with Armenia, 2% with Azerbaijan, 71% with neither/equally.
Armenophilia tends to increase with:
- Higher education
- Wealth
- Muscovites
Probably the single most interesting result is that Azerbaijan doesn’t enjoy elevated sympathy in neither the North Caucasus (10% pro-Armenia, 0% pro-Azeri) nor in the Volga region (11% pro-Armenian, 1% pro-Azeri), as one might naively expect from religious/ethnic factors.
This is relevant because the latter, which contains DICh, would be the focal point of any broad Islamic-oriented support for Azerbaijan (*very* broad, because Azerbaijan is a secular Shi’ite state, whereas the “problematics” within DICh are Sunni fundamentalists), whereas the former, which contains Volga Tatars and some other Turkic peoples, would be the focal point of any ethnonationalist Turkic-oriented support for Azerbaijan.
But in neither case does it seem to make a statistically noticeable difference, in fact both regions are more pro-Armenian than the average. (Though this in turn is probably a statistical artifact of low samples than anything real).
There are good reasons for Russia to extend some degree of aid to Armenia to prevent the conquest of Artsakh. But Armenian scaremongering about Turks weaponizing Dagestanis or Volga Tatars against Russia probably don’t come into that equation.
Who Do Russians Support in Karabakh War 2020?
FOM poll: 12% with Armenia, 2% with Azerbaijan, 71% with neither/equally. Armenophilia tends to increase with: Higher education Wealth Muscovites But the effects aren\'t that big. Probably the single most interesting result is that Azerbaijan doesn\'t enjoy elevated sympathy in neither the North...
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