What's new

Who are World's Top 10 Largest Creditor Nations?

Such a funny country.
Have money for immoral wars, but not on infra!
Trace the money, public benefits vs private arms dealer profits. Anyway that's US domestic affairs, outsiders couldn't care less, what directly affect other nations is their unsustainable trajectory of international debt, their net position tanked another $829 billion last year to negative $8.1097 trillion, which as % of GDP though has not sunk to PIIGS level yet, it's already as indebted as Eastern Europe, worse than Mexico, Venezuela or Brazil.

On the opposite side of the table are creditors, China Mainland, Hong Kong and Taiwan are all creditors and among the largest, owning huge net external assets, so it's vital to protect value especially those assets denominated in dollar.
 
.
You care for americano interests or indian interests?
It seems from your discourses you put murico corporate interests way beyond murico people or indian people's interests. Do you really care for any of those two countries?

I do care for American and Indian interests but when there is conflict I tend to side with whoever is right in my opinion. I don't wear my heart on my sleeve.
 
.
Such a funny country.
Have money for immoral wars, but not on infra!
China also just released 2016 year end data today, reports available in both SDR and dollar, here is the link http://www.safe.gov.cn/wps/portal/sy/tjsj_tzctb

At end 2016, China Mainland (excluding HK, TW, MC) net international position was +1.8005 trillion dollar (or +1.33935 trillion SDR), year-on-year increase of $127.7 billion. China Mainland has surpassed Germany by 2016Q3 to become world's second largest creditor, likely still is by 2016 end, anyway I will double after Bundesbank publish data tomorrow (https://www.bundesbank.de/Redaktion...s/Date/international_investment_position.html).

International assets continue to optimize:
  • Weight of outbound FDI in total international assets has increased to 20.37%, this is the priority item to be boosted.
  • Others (e.g. loans, trade credits) increased to 25.997%, also expect to trend upward
  • Forex reserves trimmed down to 46.56%; Still too heavy, long-term target at 20% or below.
1.png
 
.
China also just released 2016 year end data today, reports available in both SDR and dollar, here is the link http://www.safe.gov.cn/wps/portal/sy/tjsj_tzctb

At end 2016, China Mainland (excluding HK, TW, MC) net international position was +1.8005 trillion dollar (or +1.33935 trillion SDR), year-on-year increase of $127.7 billion. China Mainland has surpassed Germany by 2016Q3 to become world's second largest creditor, likely still is by 2016 end, anyway I will double after Bundesbank publish data tomorrow (https://www.bundesbank.de/Redaktion...s/Date/international_investment_position.html).

International assets continue to optimize:
  • Weight of outbound FDI in total international assets has increased to 20.37%, this is the priority item to be boosted.
  • Others (e.g. loans, trade credits) increased to 25.997%, also expect to trend upward
  • Forex reserves trimmed down to 46.56%; Still too heavy, long-term target at 20% or below.
Looking forward to new data.
Quite promising changes
 
.
  • Weight of outbound FDI in total international assets has increased to 20.37%, this is the priority item to be boosted.
  • Others (e.g. loans, trade credits) increased to 25.997%, also expect to trend upward
  • Forex reserves trimmed down to 46.56%; Still too heavy, long-term target at 20% or below.

I think the intention is to further reduce reliance on Forex and qualitatively improve and increase outbound investment to achieve higher returns.

On the other hand, manufacturing and services have kept expanding for the past five-six months in row, services expanding at a much faster pace than manifacturing:

b083fe955aa11a47f4691a.JPG

***
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2017-03/31/content_28752717.htm

BEIJING - China's service sector continued to expand in March, nearing a three-year record high, official data showed Friday.

The non-manufacturing purchasing managers' index came in at 55.1 in March, up from 54.2 in February, according to the the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

The official manufacturing PMI also expanded to 51.8 in March, NBS data showed.

***

I think improvements in international portfolio and healthier growth are all connected, pieces of China's New Normal.
 
.
I think the intention is to further reduce reliance on Forex and qualitatively improve and increase outbound investment to achieve higher returns.
Yes, just like private wealth management, an individual should optimize his own portfolio between cash, stocks and other. PBoC has been way too heavy on FX Reserves, peak time weight was over 60% of total assets, while Outbound FDI was far below 20%. Which nation in their sane mind allocates that much wealth in FX Reserves, especially a trade surplus nation? Japan is 14%, Germany is 2%, why China 60%? Surplus nations like UAE and Norway keep FX Reserves next to zero, park wealth almost entirely in SWF, why can't China?

While return on FX Reserves was utterly pitiful, inbound FDI has been scoring high returns, resulting in Investment Deficits for many years, that's no longer tolerable by new administration since late 2013.

As long as capital account is not freely convertible, financial derivatives and portfolio investments will always remain insignificant. No choice left, top priority is Outbound FDI, followed by Others (loans, trade credits).
 
.
Malaysia on Trump’s list of ‘trade cheats’

Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/...mps-list-of-trade-cheats/#hvzm7BbIPdTRlJti.99
trump1-march17.ashx

WASHINGTON: President Donald Trump will order staff Friday to pinpoint countries and goods responsible for America’s nearly US$50bil trade deficit, in a protectionist warning shot to trade partners like China.

Top administration officials said Trump will issue a pair of executive orders aimed at rooting out the causes and culprits behind America’s trade deficit, in a first step toward converting tough trade rhetoric into action.

Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said one order would result in analysts going “country by country, and product by product,” reporting back to Trump within 90 days.

They will look, he said, for evidence of “cheating,” inappropriate behavior, trade deals that have not lived up to their promise, lax enforcement, currency misalignment and troublesome World Trade Organization constraints.


”It will form the basis for decision making by the administration,” he said.

The order comes a week before Trump meets Chinese President Xi Jinping and is likely to be seen as a warning shot across Beijing’s bow.

”Needless to say the number one source of the deficit is China” he said, before listing more than a dozen other “countries that will potentially be involved.”

The others listed were: Japan, Germany, Mexico, Ireland, Vietnam, Italy, South Korea, Malaysia, India, Thailand, France, Switzerland, Taiwan, Indonesia and Canada.

However Ross said the presence of a deficit did not necessarily mean that retaliatory or remedial action would be taken.

“It’s a little bit hard to say that someone is an evil-doer if they are providing a product we can’t,” he said.

“In some cases it will simply be that they are better at making the product or can do it far cheaper than we can.”

“This is not meant to say that everybody on this little list is an evil-doer.”

Trade reset

Throughout the campaign Trump had vowed to put America’s trading relationship with the world on a more advantageous basis and put “America first.”

Critics counter that although the United States runs a deficit with some countries, no nation has benefited more from current global trading arrangements than its only superpower.

In a second executive order Trump will order the government to look at ways the United States can better recover trade duties on products that are subsidized by foreign governments or dumped on the US market.

“We’ve under collected 2.8 billion of these duties” said Peter Navarro, a top Trump trade advisor outlining the plan.

Under the proposals being considered US customs officials could impose more substantial bonding requirements at the border or examine products’ risk.

Listing various problem areas, Navarro said: “This is a big deal. It’s steel, chemicals, agricultural products, machinery -- it’s the whole gambit.”

Navarro insisted the new measures would be fall within rules at the WTO, where some might see the United States erecting a technical barrier to trade.

“There is no issue here” he said. “We’ve been collecting these duties - we just haven’t been doing it very well. The WTO is silent on the issue of incompetence.” - AFP
 
.
Malaysia on Trump’s list of ‘trade cheats’
Another list? Last year US singled out six nations for "special monitoring" and now this, as if the whole world is all wrong except themselves. See this https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/us-singles-out-china-and-five-others-for-special-monitoring.457610/

Instead of blaming six currencies, three of which are even in SDR, or blaming everyone scoring trade surplus with them, why not look inwards? PIIE has an analysis (see post #60), in 2000 Obstfeld and Rogoff calculated that returning trade to balance would require a real depreciation of the dollar of around 13%, in 2005 they adjusted that to 33%. Now after BEA released the jaw dropping data of 2016 year-end US international indebtedness, I can't imagine the outcome if Obstfeld and Rogoff run their calculation again.
 
.
Malaysia on Trump’s list of ‘trade cheats’

Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/...mps-list-of-trade-cheats/#hvzm7BbIPdTRlJti.99
trump1-march17.ashx

WASHINGTON: President Donald Trump will order staff Friday to pinpoint countries and goods responsible for America’s nearly US$50bil trade deficit, in a protectionist warning shot to trade partners like China.

Top administration officials said Trump will issue a pair of executive orders aimed at rooting out the causes and culprits behind America’s trade deficit, in a first step toward converting tough trade rhetoric into action.

Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said one order would result in analysts going “country by country, and product by product,” reporting back to Trump within 90 days.

They will look, he said, for evidence of “cheating,” inappropriate behavior, trade deals that have not lived up to their promise, lax enforcement, currency misalignment and troublesome World Trade Organization constraints.


”It will form the basis for decision making by the administration,” he said.

The order comes a week before Trump meets Chinese President Xi Jinping and is likely to be seen as a warning shot across Beijing’s bow.

”Needless to say the number one source of the deficit is China” he said, before listing more than a dozen other “countries that will potentially be involved.”

The others listed were: Japan, Germany, Mexico, Ireland, Vietnam, Italy, South Korea, Malaysia, India, Thailand, France, Switzerland, Taiwan, Indonesia and Canada.

However Ross said the presence of a deficit did not necessarily mean that retaliatory or remedial action would be taken.

“It’s a little bit hard to say that someone is an evil-doer if they are providing a product we can’t,” he said.

“In some cases it will simply be that they are better at making the product or can do it far cheaper than we can.”

“This is not meant to say that everybody on this little list is an evil-doer.”

Trade reset

Throughout the campaign Trump had vowed to put America’s trading relationship with the world on a more advantageous basis and put “America first.”

Critics counter that although the United States runs a deficit with some countries, no nation has benefited more from current global trading arrangements than its only superpower.

In a second executive order Trump will order the government to look at ways the United States can better recover trade duties on products that are subsidized by foreign governments or dumped on the US market.

“We’ve under collected 2.8 billion of these duties” said Peter Navarro, a top Trump trade advisor outlining the plan.

Under the proposals being considered US customs officials could impose more substantial bonding requirements at the border or examine products’ risk.

Listing various problem areas, Navarro said: “This is a big deal. It’s steel, chemicals, agricultural products, machinery -- it’s the whole gambit.”

Navarro insisted the new measures would be fall within rules at the WTO, where some might see the United States erecting a technical barrier to trade.

“There is no issue here” he said. “We’ve been collecting these duties - we just haven’t been doing it very well. The WTO is silent on the issue of incompetence.” - AFP

The US regime starts to talk a strange language such as 'evils'. What is this fanaticism?

The US must immediately leave the WTO before we start a motion regarding unfair US trade practices such as government subsidy, protectionism and bail outs, which impair fair competition.
 
.
Looking forward to new data.
Quite promising changes
Data available, largest creditor nation at end 2016 is still Japan, followed by China Mainland and Germany. The largest debtor nation is still United States.
  • Japan: +¥358.267 trillion or +$3.0634 trillion
  • China Mainland: +SDR1.3394 trillion or +$1.8005 trillion
  • Germany: +€1.705 trillion or +$1.7939 trillion
  • United States: -$8.1097 trillion
Citations:
http://www.mof.go.jp/international_policy/reference/iip/201703a.pdf
http://usd.fx-exchange.com/jpy/2016_12_31-exchange-rates-history.html
https://www.bundesbank.de/Redaktion...rmoegen_quartal.en.pdf?__blob=publicationFile
http://eur.fxexchangerate.com/usd-2016_12_31-exchange-rates-history.html
https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/international/intinv/intinvnewsrelease.htm
 
.
Guys, what is the difference between China printing Yuan and China accumulating printed dollars? If people can answer this, then you would understand that ultimately, money must be used to build infrastructure, improve technology be it military/civilian, improve the living standards of the people. That's why when China invests crazily in infrastructure, it has got no effect on our inflation, we are using the dollars accumulated to buy overseas resources to finance that endeavor. If we were only printing Yuan and doing it domestically, inflation would be crazy and the economy would collapse. However, thanks to having dollars, we can access the world's resources to build new China. The only way to stop our dependence on USD$ would be to internationalize Yuan, which is what we are trying to do.

We are still dependent on exports due to our huge population, which we had been trying to reduce, but we can't reduce it immediately, hence we change the population policy to 2 child policy, whereby the reduction can be smoother. Until China reaches a more stable population of say 600-800 million with good infrastructure and social development level, we are still dependent on the US led world economy. I foresee Chinese total independence around 2050, population will start falling in 2025 and by 2050, it will be stable.

That's why we have the term Chimerica, we are the same beast.
 
.
Balance of Payments, International Investment Position and External Debt Statistics of Hong Kong
Fourth Quarter 2016
http://www.statistics.gov.hk/pub/B10400012016QQ04B0100.pdf
hkd.fxexchangerate.com/usd-2016_12_31-exchange-rates-history.html
Summary:
External financial assets at +HK$35,497.2 billion
External financial liabilities at -HK$26,342.2 billion
Net external financial assets +HK$9,155.0 billion or +US$1.1808 trillion (as a staggering ratio of 368% to GDP)​

Apart from JP, DE and China Mainland, Hong Kong and Taiwan are the only other two net creditor economies with IIP exceeding trillion dollar level. Taiwan was +$1.053905 trillion at end 2015, 2016 data will be available in June 2017, I will update next month. My estimate of China combined (Mainland + HK + Taiwan) is about +$4 trillion, higher than Japan.
 
. .
I foresee Chinese total independence around 2050, population will start falling in 2025 and by 2050, it will be stable.

Once the population starts dropping due to low birth rate, it's almost impossible to reverse it. As long as the fertility rate is much lower than 2.1, the population will keep declining.
 
.
The US regime starts to talk a strange language such as 'evils'. What is this fanaticism?

The US must immediately leave the WTO before we start a motion regarding unfair US trade practices such as government subsidy, protectionism and bail outs, which impair fair competition.

You should start such proceedings ASAP
 
.

Pakistan Affairs Latest Posts

Country Latest Posts

Back
Top Bottom