illusion8
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Today, they may be on opposite sides of an emerging Afghanistan-Pakistan proxy battle. But come next year, the Afghan and Pakistani Taliban could formally join forces-a jihadist juggernaut with alarming implications for regional stability.
Some analysts warn that if Afghanistan and Pakistan continue to provide sanctuaries to their respective proxies after international troops withdraw from Afghanistan, intensified cross-border attacks could elicit increasingly strong retaliations from the Afghan and Pakistani militaries-and conceivably cause a proxy battle to escalate into full-blown war between Afghanistan and Pakistan.
This Taliban-as-proxy debate may be compelling --but is it convincing? Not really. And that's because the Afghan and Pakistani Taliban are destined to be partners, not rival proxies.
Consider that the two Talibans-which share a desire for Islamic rule under hardline interpretations of Sharia law-are already cooperating operationally in Afghanistan. The TTP recruits, trains, and dispatches fighters to the country from Pakistan's tribal belt. Both Talibansclaimed responsibility for a deadly attack on a CIA base in Afghanistan in 2009.
Such cooperation is long-standing. Many current TTP commanderswere fighting in Afghanistan in the 1990s, and came to Pakistan only after the Taliban regime they helped bring to power in Kabul was overthrown. In 2001, Sufi Mohammad-later a Swat-based TTP leader and father-in-law of Mullah Fazlullah-led fighters into Afghanistan to battle U.S. troops. Baitullah Mehsud, who preceded Hakimullah Mehsud as TTP leader, worked with Afghan fighters as a low-level Haqqani Network commander before helping found the TTP in 2007. In fact, the TTP's original reason for declaring war on Islamabad was the latter's support for the U.S.-led intervention in Afghanistan (the current rationale-the need to overthrow an un-Islamic, pro-democratic, illegitimate Pakistani government-came later).
Another reason to be skeptical about proxy talk is that proxy-patron relationships aren't as strong as often assumed on either side of the Durand Line. Afghan efforts to forge a partnership with the TTP remain fledgling. And the relationship between Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban isn't as cozy as it may seem. Afghan Taliban detainees quoted in a revealing 2012 report prepared by ISAF interrogators show little love for Pakistan: Low-level and high-level detainees alike describe Pakistan as "untrustworthy," "manipulative," "controlling," and "demeaning." They also complain of Pakistan's "willingness to immediately arrest any Taliban personnel deemed uncooperative," and contend that Pakistan has little interest in an end to the war in Afghanistan. This latter allegation, if true, suggests that Pakistan's security establishment could be behind the recent spate of killings of Afghan Taliban leaders (some of whom, to reiterate, were exploring talks with Kabul) on its soil.
The Afghan Taliban's mistrust of its Pakistani patron makes sense; after all, they've previously taken up arms against each other. When he was a Haqqani Network commander, Baitullah Mehsud fought the Pakistani military (no other major branch of the Afghan Taliban is known to have targeted the Pakistani state with force).
In the ISAF report, Taliban detainees express unhappiness about the tight control Pakistan's intelligence agency exerts over them, but conclude that they have little choice but to accept it so long as they require a sanctuary in Pakistan.
Yet this calculus could soon change. With most if not all international troops to be out of Afghanistan by year's end, the resulting security vacuum could give the Afghan Taliban opportunities to re-establish havens there. This suggests that Pakistan-based sanctuaries-a chief source of Pakistan's leverage over the Afghan Taliban-may no longer be necessary, prompting the Afghan Taliban to renounce its relationship with Pakistan and to form a terrifying tag team with the TTP.
Yes, the Pakistani and Afghan Taliban have their differences. Yet at the end of the day, they share the same hardline ideology and use the same violent means to pursue the same destabilizing goals. This suggests that their interests are better served by cooperating than by getting caught up in proxy battles. With Pakistan and Afghanistan either unwilling or unable to tame these two groups, and with international troops leaving Afghanistan, an Afghan-Pakistani Taliban syndicate would make for a formidable and ferocious force in a region already flush with violent fundamentalism.
When the Afghan and Pakistani Taliban Unite
Some analysts warn that if Afghanistan and Pakistan continue to provide sanctuaries to their respective proxies after international troops withdraw from Afghanistan, intensified cross-border attacks could elicit increasingly strong retaliations from the Afghan and Pakistani militaries-and conceivably cause a proxy battle to escalate into full-blown war between Afghanistan and Pakistan.
This Taliban-as-proxy debate may be compelling --but is it convincing? Not really. And that's because the Afghan and Pakistani Taliban are destined to be partners, not rival proxies.
Consider that the two Talibans-which share a desire for Islamic rule under hardline interpretations of Sharia law-are already cooperating operationally in Afghanistan. The TTP recruits, trains, and dispatches fighters to the country from Pakistan's tribal belt. Both Talibansclaimed responsibility for a deadly attack on a CIA base in Afghanistan in 2009.
Such cooperation is long-standing. Many current TTP commanderswere fighting in Afghanistan in the 1990s, and came to Pakistan only after the Taliban regime they helped bring to power in Kabul was overthrown. In 2001, Sufi Mohammad-later a Swat-based TTP leader and father-in-law of Mullah Fazlullah-led fighters into Afghanistan to battle U.S. troops. Baitullah Mehsud, who preceded Hakimullah Mehsud as TTP leader, worked with Afghan fighters as a low-level Haqqani Network commander before helping found the TTP in 2007. In fact, the TTP's original reason for declaring war on Islamabad was the latter's support for the U.S.-led intervention in Afghanistan (the current rationale-the need to overthrow an un-Islamic, pro-democratic, illegitimate Pakistani government-came later).
Another reason to be skeptical about proxy talk is that proxy-patron relationships aren't as strong as often assumed on either side of the Durand Line. Afghan efforts to forge a partnership with the TTP remain fledgling. And the relationship between Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban isn't as cozy as it may seem. Afghan Taliban detainees quoted in a revealing 2012 report prepared by ISAF interrogators show little love for Pakistan: Low-level and high-level detainees alike describe Pakistan as "untrustworthy," "manipulative," "controlling," and "demeaning." They also complain of Pakistan's "willingness to immediately arrest any Taliban personnel deemed uncooperative," and contend that Pakistan has little interest in an end to the war in Afghanistan. This latter allegation, if true, suggests that Pakistan's security establishment could be behind the recent spate of killings of Afghan Taliban leaders (some of whom, to reiterate, were exploring talks with Kabul) on its soil.
The Afghan Taliban's mistrust of its Pakistani patron makes sense; after all, they've previously taken up arms against each other. When he was a Haqqani Network commander, Baitullah Mehsud fought the Pakistani military (no other major branch of the Afghan Taliban is known to have targeted the Pakistani state with force).
In the ISAF report, Taliban detainees express unhappiness about the tight control Pakistan's intelligence agency exerts over them, but conclude that they have little choice but to accept it so long as they require a sanctuary in Pakistan.
Yet this calculus could soon change. With most if not all international troops to be out of Afghanistan by year's end, the resulting security vacuum could give the Afghan Taliban opportunities to re-establish havens there. This suggests that Pakistan-based sanctuaries-a chief source of Pakistan's leverage over the Afghan Taliban-may no longer be necessary, prompting the Afghan Taliban to renounce its relationship with Pakistan and to form a terrifying tag team with the TTP.
Yes, the Pakistani and Afghan Taliban have their differences. Yet at the end of the day, they share the same hardline ideology and use the same violent means to pursue the same destabilizing goals. This suggests that their interests are better served by cooperating than by getting caught up in proxy battles. With Pakistan and Afghanistan either unwilling or unable to tame these two groups, and with international troops leaving Afghanistan, an Afghan-Pakistani Taliban syndicate would make for a formidable and ferocious force in a region already flush with violent fundamentalism.
When the Afghan and Pakistani Taliban Unite
TTP is already divided and being worn down
