muse
ELITE MEMBER
- Joined
- Oct 26, 2006
- Messages
- 13,006
- Reaction score
- 0
Nayef favourite to be next Saudi crown prince
Gulfnews: Nayef favourite to be next Saudi crown prince
04/10/2009 05:52 PM | Oxford Analytica
EVENT: Crown Prince Sultan Bin Abdul Aziz, who is also the First Deputy Prime Minister, left a US hospital on March 31 after his second recent operation.
SIGNIFICANCE: The government insists all is well, but Crown Prince Sultan is 82, and has been out of the country since November. Moreover, Prince Nayef, the long-serving Interior Minister, was on March 27 appointed Second Deputy Prime Minister, a post that has been vacant since King Abdullah's succession in 2005 and normally seen as indicating the likely line of succession.
ANALYSIS
King Abdullah set up the Allegiance Council in 2006 to deal with the selection of a Crown Prince after Sultan and other matters related to succession. The King, after consulting members of the Council, will present up to three candidates to the Council for it to choose.
If the Council rejects them, it will make its own nomination and there will then be a vote between that nominee and the King's. However, the King is likely to put forward a single candidate that he knows will be endorsed. The Council has 35 members who are the sons of King Abdul Aziz or, if any member has died, one of their sons; the eldest sons of the King and the Crown Prince are also members. The body is chaired by the 82-year old Prince Mesha'al Bin Abdul Aziz, who is close to King Abdullah.
When the King announced the formation of the Allegiance Council on the eve of a five-day holiday, he caught senior members of the family by surprise. It was seen as an attempt to prevent the Sudairi princes (the sons of Abdul Aziz by Hassa Al Sudairi) from becoming a dominant royal faction, as has happened in Qatar and Kuwait. The Sudairis include the late King Fahd, Sultan, Nayef, Prince Ahmad, the Deputy Interior Minister, and Prince Salman, the Governor of Riyadh.
King Abdullah, as regent between 1995 and 2005, often struggled to impose his authority on the Sudairis as long as the incapacitated King Fahd survived but could not rule. Abdullah reduced Sudairi influence by bringing other half brothers to his entourage. He created a Family Council to build up support within the wider Al Saud family. However, the Sudairis remain powerful, and the sons of Sultan and Nayef are also the de facto assistant ministers of defence and interior - as is Mit'ab, Abdullah's son, in the National Guard commanded by his father. The Sudairis were not happy with the idea of an Allegiance Council.
The key questions have been whether the Allegiance Council would choose a Sudairi and whether the successor would be a son of Abdul Aziz or from the next generation. The appointment of Nayef goes some way to answering these.
There are six Sudairi princes (including Sultan) on the Allegiance Council and they will clearly exert a considerable influence on the decision. It has always seemed likely that one of them would be chosen.
Nayef is now the clear favourite even though his new position is being portrayed as an administrative arrangement necessitated by Sultan's prolonged absence.
The 73-year-old Salman is thought to have the widest support of any potential crown prince. He is the respected administrator of family affairs and is one of the most able of the senior princes.
However, Nayef (75) wants to be king and seems to be in better health than in recent years - and seniority in age is a factor. He has been the formal head of Saudi Arabia's successful counter-terrorist programme, is a conservative figure close to the senior religious scholars, and has been prominent in recent months.
Prince Talal, one of the most outspoken of the King's half-brothers and a noted advocate of reform, has asked the King to clarify the effect of the promotion of Nayef on the succession process. Many will be asking the same question in private. The move appears to have dashed hopes that the next Crown Prince could come from one of the non-Sudairi brothers. However, one of them could eventually become king, with Prince Muqrin, the youngest at 65 and head of Saudi Intelligence, probably the most able.
It now seems unlikely that the King will nominate someone from the next generation. There are a number of able candidates from the more than 200 grandsons of Abdul Aziz but selecting one of them before a consensus has emerged would lead to destabilising tensions within the family. The sons of the late King Faisal (all in their 60s) are often spoken of as the most able and all have been successful in difficult jobs:
Prince Saud has been foreign minister for many years. Prince Turki ran Saudi intelligence for over 20 years before become Ambassador in London and then Washington. Prince Khalid is the Governor of Makkah.
In addition, King Abdullah, Sultan and Nayef have positioned their sons as de facto deputies within their bailiwicks. The sons of other former kings also occupy top positions (for example Prince Mohammad Bin Fahd, the Governor of the Eastern Province), but these are not seen as potential monarchs.
The positions of those sons acting as their fathers' virtual deputies could pose a problem for the future. It is not clear what would happen if one of their fathers died - in other words whether they would succeed him or the King would select other candidates - probably one of his half-brothers while leaving the son as a deputy. Developments within the Defence Ministry in recent months suggest that Prince Khalid Bin Sultan will not succeed his father.
A Saudi King leads by first building a consensus within the family and then among the elites - the civil service, business, university and clerical establishments. The most successful have given a clear lead and built the consensus in the direction which they think is the best for the country.
Abdullah has pursued an energetic economic reform programme and has reduced the influence of the most conservative of the Ulema. A successor is likely to continue in the same general direction.
Some brothers, but not likely successors, want to accelerate reform as do many in the next generation. However, Nayef is known for his conservative views and closeness to the religious establishment and is likely to favour a more cautious approach. Nevertheless, he knows that consensus is the key and since his appointment he has spoken of the importance of moderation in domestic and foreign policy.
The Al Saud family does not discuss succession with outsiders. There is thus a significant element of speculation in examining the succession. If the family has to choose a new Crown Prince in the near future, Abdullah will have the key influence and will consult within the family and come up with a candidate who he thinks would have the most support and continue his policies.
CONCLUSION
The promotion of Nayef is a clear sign that he is now favoured to be the next Crown Prince, though it is not a foregone conclusion that the king will nominate him. While some would not welcome Nayef's ascendancy, there is a tradition in the family of rallying behind the chosen successor - and for that successor to recognise the consensus style of decision-making.
Gulfnews: Nayef favourite to be next Saudi crown prince
04/10/2009 05:52 PM | Oxford Analytica
EVENT: Crown Prince Sultan Bin Abdul Aziz, who is also the First Deputy Prime Minister, left a US hospital on March 31 after his second recent operation.
SIGNIFICANCE: The government insists all is well, but Crown Prince Sultan is 82, and has been out of the country since November. Moreover, Prince Nayef, the long-serving Interior Minister, was on March 27 appointed Second Deputy Prime Minister, a post that has been vacant since King Abdullah's succession in 2005 and normally seen as indicating the likely line of succession.
ANALYSIS
King Abdullah set up the Allegiance Council in 2006 to deal with the selection of a Crown Prince after Sultan and other matters related to succession. The King, after consulting members of the Council, will present up to three candidates to the Council for it to choose.
If the Council rejects them, it will make its own nomination and there will then be a vote between that nominee and the King's. However, the King is likely to put forward a single candidate that he knows will be endorsed. The Council has 35 members who are the sons of King Abdul Aziz or, if any member has died, one of their sons; the eldest sons of the King and the Crown Prince are also members. The body is chaired by the 82-year old Prince Mesha'al Bin Abdul Aziz, who is close to King Abdullah.
When the King announced the formation of the Allegiance Council on the eve of a five-day holiday, he caught senior members of the family by surprise. It was seen as an attempt to prevent the Sudairi princes (the sons of Abdul Aziz by Hassa Al Sudairi) from becoming a dominant royal faction, as has happened in Qatar and Kuwait. The Sudairis include the late King Fahd, Sultan, Nayef, Prince Ahmad, the Deputy Interior Minister, and Prince Salman, the Governor of Riyadh.
King Abdullah, as regent between 1995 and 2005, often struggled to impose his authority on the Sudairis as long as the incapacitated King Fahd survived but could not rule. Abdullah reduced Sudairi influence by bringing other half brothers to his entourage. He created a Family Council to build up support within the wider Al Saud family. However, the Sudairis remain powerful, and the sons of Sultan and Nayef are also the de facto assistant ministers of defence and interior - as is Mit'ab, Abdullah's son, in the National Guard commanded by his father. The Sudairis were not happy with the idea of an Allegiance Council.
The key questions have been whether the Allegiance Council would choose a Sudairi and whether the successor would be a son of Abdul Aziz or from the next generation. The appointment of Nayef goes some way to answering these.
There are six Sudairi princes (including Sultan) on the Allegiance Council and they will clearly exert a considerable influence on the decision. It has always seemed likely that one of them would be chosen.
Nayef is now the clear favourite even though his new position is being portrayed as an administrative arrangement necessitated by Sultan's prolonged absence.
The 73-year-old Salman is thought to have the widest support of any potential crown prince. He is the respected administrator of family affairs and is one of the most able of the senior princes.
However, Nayef (75) wants to be king and seems to be in better health than in recent years - and seniority in age is a factor. He has been the formal head of Saudi Arabia's successful counter-terrorist programme, is a conservative figure close to the senior religious scholars, and has been prominent in recent months.
Prince Talal, one of the most outspoken of the King's half-brothers and a noted advocate of reform, has asked the King to clarify the effect of the promotion of Nayef on the succession process. Many will be asking the same question in private. The move appears to have dashed hopes that the next Crown Prince could come from one of the non-Sudairi brothers. However, one of them could eventually become king, with Prince Muqrin, the youngest at 65 and head of Saudi Intelligence, probably the most able.
It now seems unlikely that the King will nominate someone from the next generation. There are a number of able candidates from the more than 200 grandsons of Abdul Aziz but selecting one of them before a consensus has emerged would lead to destabilising tensions within the family. The sons of the late King Faisal (all in their 60s) are often spoken of as the most able and all have been successful in difficult jobs:
Prince Saud has been foreign minister for many years. Prince Turki ran Saudi intelligence for over 20 years before become Ambassador in London and then Washington. Prince Khalid is the Governor of Makkah.
In addition, King Abdullah, Sultan and Nayef have positioned their sons as de facto deputies within their bailiwicks. The sons of other former kings also occupy top positions (for example Prince Mohammad Bin Fahd, the Governor of the Eastern Province), but these are not seen as potential monarchs.
The positions of those sons acting as their fathers' virtual deputies could pose a problem for the future. It is not clear what would happen if one of their fathers died - in other words whether they would succeed him or the King would select other candidates - probably one of his half-brothers while leaving the son as a deputy. Developments within the Defence Ministry in recent months suggest that Prince Khalid Bin Sultan will not succeed his father.
A Saudi King leads by first building a consensus within the family and then among the elites - the civil service, business, university and clerical establishments. The most successful have given a clear lead and built the consensus in the direction which they think is the best for the country.
Abdullah has pursued an energetic economic reform programme and has reduced the influence of the most conservative of the Ulema. A successor is likely to continue in the same general direction.
Some brothers, but not likely successors, want to accelerate reform as do many in the next generation. However, Nayef is known for his conservative views and closeness to the religious establishment and is likely to favour a more cautious approach. Nevertheless, he knows that consensus is the key and since his appointment he has spoken of the importance of moderation in domestic and foreign policy.
The Al Saud family does not discuss succession with outsiders. There is thus a significant element of speculation in examining the succession. If the family has to choose a new Crown Prince in the near future, Abdullah will have the key influence and will consult within the family and come up with a candidate who he thinks would have the most support and continue his policies.
CONCLUSION
The promotion of Nayef is a clear sign that he is now favoured to be the next Crown Prince, though it is not a foregone conclusion that the king will nominate him. While some would not welcome Nayef's ascendancy, there is a tradition in the family of rallying behind the chosen successor - and for that successor to recognise the consensus style of decision-making.
