What the fall of Afghanistan means for Iran

[AmirPatriot]

A short, surprise blog post from me on the possible implications for Iran regarding the situation in Afghanistan. I'm curious to hear how other members here think Iran should manage this.

What the fall of Afghanistan means for Iran

In 1998, 8 Iranian diplomats and a journalist at the Iranian consulate in Mazar-i-Sharif were murdered by Taliban forces, which controlled the city at that time. What followed were months of tensions, with Iran deploying tens of thousands of troops and heavy weaponry at the border, and cross-border skirmishes breaking out. All out war however, was avoided.

As I write this piece, the Taliban are sweeping through Afghanistan. In the past 8 days, they have captured 16 of Afghanistan's 34 provinces and show no sign of slowing down. The Afghan National Army is crumbling, and the only foreign troops coming in are tasked with evacuating embassies.

Iranian tanks lined up on the Afghan border in 1998​

For the full blog post, click the link below

What the fall of Afghanistan means for Iran

Will the Taliban govern an actual country, or a terrorist fiefdom?

irangeomil.blogspot.com

 

[FuturePAF]

With an ailing supreme leader and the death of Suliemani less than two years ago, a lot will fall into the shoulders of the new “Hardline” Iranian President. Considering the Hazara/Shia majority areas of Afghanistan were mot touched by the Talibs despite their massive Blitzkrieg for the past few months, there is a lot happening behind the scenes we in the general public don’t know about.

In short, The Iranians will keep a weary eye on Afghanistan. With the westerners out, they will be somewhat relieved. But on the other hand a new massive refugee exodus could keep them very busy unless they (possibly financially/ food aid) support the Talibs for a few years.

 

[Stryker1982]

A short, surprise blog post from me on the possible implications for Iran regarding the situation in Afghanistan. I'm curious to hear how other members here think Iran should manage this.

What the fall of Afghanistan means for Iran

In 1998, 8 Iranian diplomats and a journalist at the Iranian consulate in Mazar-i-Sharif were murdered by Taliban forces, which controlled the city at that time. What followed were months of tensions, with Iran deploying tens of thousands of troops and heavy weaponry at the border, and cross-border skirmishes breaking out. All out war however, was avoided.

As I write this piece, the Taliban are sweeping through Afghanistan. In the past 8 days, they have captured 16 of Afghanistan's 34 provinces and show no sign of slowing down. The Afghan National Army is crumbling, and the only foreign troops coming in are tasked with evacuating embassies.

View attachment 769481

Iranian tanks lined up on the Afghan border in 1998​

For the full blog post, click the link below

What the fall of Afghanistan means for Iran

Will the Taliban govern an actual country, or a terrorist fiefdom?

irangeomil.blogspot.com

With an ailing supreme leader and the death of Suliemani less than two years ago, a lot will fall into the shoulders of the new “Hardline” Iranian President. Considering the Hazara/Shia majority areas of Afghanistan were mot touched by the Talibs despite their massive Blitzkrieg for the past few months, there is a lot happening behind the scenes we in the general public don’t know about.

In short, The Iranians will keep a weary eye on Afghanistan. With the westerners out, they will be somewhat relieved. But on the other hand a new massive refugee exodus could keep them very busy unless they (possibly financially/ food aid) support the Talibs for a few years.

Yes, it seems that the Shia population is not combative, or resistant to Talib forces at all. No mobilizations despite the propaganda that is trying to turn this into a sectarian religious conflict. I have even seen selfies with Talib forces. Perhaps their is some sort of prior "peace agreement" behind the scenes.

Both Islamabad and Tehran seem content with Talib forces as long as all agreements are maintained not to allow anti-Iran/anti-Iran forces to hide there, and I'm sure similar agreement is talked about with Pakistan and Taliban about not allowing anti-Pakistan pro-India groups to hide there and cause problems.

 

[Dalit]

Iran has to look beyond India. India is a spoiler and a lapdog of the US. Iran must concentrate on the region. Chabahar can be a success without Indian involvement.

The Taliban aren't going to attack the Shia population. It won't serve any purpose. We will hear a lot of propaganda from Indian and Western sources. The propaganda needs to be ignored. All like-minded regional countries must come together and talk with the Taliban. US/NATO and India should be excluded.

Regional success is only possible if regional countries cooperate.

 

[FuturePAF]

Yes, it seems that the Shia population is not combative, or resistant to Talib forces at all. No mobilizations despite the propaganda that is trying to turn this into a sectarian religious conflict. I have even seen selfies with Talib forces. Perhaps their is some sort of prior "peace agreement" behind the scenes.

Both Islamabad and Tehran seem content with Talib forces as long as all agreements are maintained not to allow anti-Iran/anti-Iran forces to hide there, and I'm sure similar agreement is talked about with Pakistan and Taliban about not allowing anti-Pakistan pro-India groups to hide there and cause problems.

Hopefully Afghanistan becomes the Switzerland of Asia. neutral in the affairs of its neighbors and just focused on business and the well being of its people.

 

[sha ah]

Iran will be happy that Americans have left. Iran won't intervene in Afghanistan in any way as long as the Taliban abide by or work towards the following conditions.

1) Peace and stability on the Afghan-Iran border. No cross border raids and no mass exodus of immigrants into Iran.

2) Taliban do not harm Iranian diplomats. In Herat Iranian diplomats were not harmed in any way, which is a good sign.

3) Taliban do not harm or persecute Hazara or Shia people of Afghanistan.

4) Taliban work towards ending the drug trade which is extremely harmful to Iran.

 

[CIA Mole]

the goal of US interventions have always been to destabilize and prevent development, this is so their corporate giants can exploit the resources.


remember what happened to countries that tried to defend its oil from the US or demand gold instead of dollar?



US does not know how to stabilize these places

 

[RealNapster]

A short, surprise blog post from me on the possible implications for Iran regarding the situation in Afghanistan. I'm curious to hear how other members here think Iran should manage this.

What the fall of Afghanistan means for Iran

In 1998, 8 Iranian diplomats and a journalist at the Iranian consulate in Mazar-i-Sharif were murdered by Taliban forces, which controlled the city at that time. What followed were months of tensions, with Iran deploying tens of thousands of troops and heavy weaponry at the border, and cross-border skirmishes breaking out. All out war however, was avoided.

As I write this piece, the Taliban are sweeping through Afghanistan. In the past 8 days, they have captured 16 of Afghanistan's 34 provinces and show no sign of slowing down. The Afghan National Army is crumbling, and the only foreign troops coming in are tasked with evacuating embassies.

View attachment 769481

Iranian tanks lined up on the Afghan border in 1998​

For the full blog post, click the link below

What the fall of Afghanistan means for Iran

Will the Taliban govern an actual country, or a terrorist fiefdom?

irangeomil.blogspot.com

Why Iran have a duty to protect Afghanistan's Shia community and why do you think their presence in Afghanistan allow you to put pressure, influence and actions to "protect" them ? Do Afghan Taliban led Afghan government will enjoy the same "responsibility and duty" to "protect" Sunni population of Iran ???

When will Iran come out of this Shia Sunni politics ? When will you guys stop meddling in other Muslim countries in the name of "protection" ? Zainabiyun is no secret, what if Afghan Taliban or Pakistan create same sort of unit enrolling Iranian Sunnis ? Stop....

 

[AmirPatriot]

Both Islamabad and Tehran seem content with Talib forces as long as all agreements are maintained not to allow anti-Iran/anti-Iran forces to hide there, and I'm sure similar agreement is talked about with Pakistan and Taliban about not allowing anti-Pakistan pro-India groups to hide there and cause problems

This is what I think too. Taliban taking over was just a matter of time once the Americans left. So as long as they are... normal, there will be no problems. They won't necessarily be liked by everyone, but if there is no source of friction there will be no reason for tension.

I hope the reassurances from members here about current Taliban policies/attitudes towards Shia is true and remains so for the long term. I should remind all that there are a lot of media in Afghanistan presently, doing plenty of interviews with the Taliban. They are trying to gain legitimacy on all fronts. So that's why I am wary.

Iran has to look beyond India. India is a spoiler and a lapdog of the US. Iran must concentrate on the region. Chabahar can be a success without Indian involvement.

India is a trade partner, not an ally. I only mentioned them in the context of the development of Chabahar and the wider province. If they pull out then Iran may not have the (spare) resources to finish the job given the current economic situation.

 

[sha ah]

Don't be a hypocrite when it comes to Iran. Currently Pakistan is supporting the Taliban. All of the Taliban leadership are currently in Pakistan. Even Chinese media outlets have verified this. Don't even try denying this. The entire world knows the truth.

Iran is an Islamic Republic and 90%+ Shia. So when Muslims, especially Shia are being oppressed or hurt anywhere, Iranian people care and Iran does have as much of a right as any other country to intervene to defend its national security/interests.

If USA can intervene in the region to defend its national security then why can't Iran? If Pakistan can give support to the Taliban because it's their national interest, then why can't Iran do the same ?

Iran would prefer not to intervene anywhere in any way but if it's in Iran's national interest, Iran will not hesitate to do whatever is necessary regardless of what anyone says or thinks.

People can cry, scream, complain, whine. Iran will do whatever it needs to do.

Why Iran have a duty to protect Afghanistan's Shia community and why do you think their presence in Afghanistan allow you to put pressure, influence and actions to "protect" them ? Do Afghan Taliban led Afghan government will enjoy the same "responsibility and duty" to "protect" Sunni population of Iran ???

When will Iran come out of this Shia Sunni politics ? When will you guys stop meddling in other Muslim countries in the name of "protection" ? Zainabiyun is no secret, what if Afghan Taliban or Pakistan create same sort of unit enrolling Iranian Sunnis ? Stop....

 

[Muhammed45]

Why Iran have a duty to protect Afghanistan's Shia community and why do you think their presence in Afghanistan allow you to put pressure, influence and actions to "protect" them ? Do Afghan Taliban led Afghan government will enjoy the same "responsibility and duty" to "protect" Sunni population of Iran ???

When will Iran come out of this Shia Sunni politics ? When will you guys stop meddling in other Muslim countries in the name of "protection" ? Zainabiyun is no secret, what if Afghan Taliban or Pakistan create same sort of unit enrolling Iranian Sunnis ? Stop....

Because the Anglo savages have been chasing Shias every where in their Islamic colonies. As Mr Hempher mentions in his memoire, wherever there was Shia majority, we failed to project power of British kingdom. He mentions that Shias are not controllable, they are not purchase-able and they follow their third imam's way of fighting.

This is not Shia Sunni problem, i have always said that. Its all about colonialism and the ones who say no to colonial bullies and also the submissive ones.

As for Taliban, they need to be cautious of Saudi supported and paid factions. Iran will support them in all areas if they keep their safe distance from Anglo dog Saudi.

One thing for sure, Iran will not hesitate in protecting Shias and so far because of Iranian requests Shia majority areas have accepted Taliban without picking a fight. Its mostly done in order to keep the invading forces such as NATO out of Afghanistan and also for sake of long lasting peace.

Israel should remain our top priority.

Don't be a hypocrite when it comes to Iran. Currently Pakistan is supporting the Taliban. All of the Taliban leadership are currently in Pakistan. Even Chinese media outlets have verified this. Don't even try denying this. The entire world knows the truth.

Pakistan needs to put itself together man, on one hand they claim supporting taliban on other hand they allow Americans to massacre Taliban. WTF

 

[Dalit]

Iran and Pakistan had their differences over the years. There have been irritants. We have supported our own groups for whatever reason. This is no secret.

Time has come to resolve all irritants for the greater good. Pakistan and Iran have an opportunity to work together in the face of US/Western hostility. If US/Western hostility doesn't unify Iran, Pakistan and the wider region unfortunately nothing will.

Both Iran and Pakistan must have ironclad agreements regarding regional interests. We share a border and we have the same interests, namely regional security and economic development. As the US/NATO troops exit both Iran and Pakistan have an amazing opportunity to reset their relationship. We have common foes and challanges. The region has common foes and challanges. Today the region has the ability to make or break the future of millions of people.

I hope that Pakistan and Iran can overcome their differences and cooperate as friendly allies and neighbours. It is the need of the hour. For the sake of region and above all their own people.

 

[Maula Jatt]

Why Iran have a duty to protect Afghanistan's Shia community and why do you think their presence in Afghanistan allow you to put pressure, influence and actions to "protect" them ? Do Afghan Taliban led Afghan government will enjoy the same "responsibility and duty" to "protect" Sunni population of Iran ???

When will Iran come out of this Shia Sunni politics ? When will you guys stop meddling in other Muslim countries in the name of "protection" ? Zainabiyun is no secret, what if Afghan Taliban or Pakistan create same sort of unit enrolling Iranian Sunnis ? Stop....

Who else will protect the Shias?

If Taliban go back to thier olden ways

You think Pakistan will come and be like hey Taliban c'mon dude cut it out

No we wouldn't care, as long as they're not creating problems for our Shiate group, we are ok

In this atmosphere only Iran is left to counter the butchery against a minority group (that's why comparing Shia to Sunni is a false equivalence as one is a minority - more succeptable to violance)

As long as Iran doesn't bring instability into stable countries and goes overboard

I don't think it's an issue

 

[Maula Jatt]

Iran and Pakistan had their differences over the years. There have been irritants. We have supported our own groups for whatever reason. This is no secret.

Time has come to resolve all irritants for the greater good. Pakistan and Iran have an opportunity to work together in the face of US/Western hostility. If US/Western hostility doesn't unify Iran, Pakistan and the wider region unfortunately nothing will.

Both Iran and Pakistan must have ironclad agreements regarding regional interests. We share a border and we have the same interests, namely regional security and economic development. As the US/NATO troops exit both Iran and Pakistan have an amazing opportunity to reset their relationship. We have common foes and challanges. The region has common foes and challanges. Today the region has the ability to make or break the future of millions of people.

I hope that Pakistan and Iran can overcome their differences and cooperate as friendly allies and neighbours. It is the need of the hour. For the sake of region and above all their own people.

I feel both countries want friendly relationship and understand the value of it but two things that holds em back

- For Pak we feel India in Iran is part of Indias strategy to encircle Pakistan and create tensions in all our border areas

- Kabul went completely nuts in thier support for India, that's why hostilities rose not the same with Tehran

They understand Pakistans concern and know Thier national intrests too

So they are trying to balance these issues

Tehrans concern

US, but this one is largely gone - Pak isn't exactly a friend of US rn

Saudi- we have close relationship with Arab states which for Tehran is a matter of concern

Pakistan like thier Iranian counterpart is trying to find a balance

Trying to avoid conflicts that are anti-Iran (Yemen), not taking any outwardly anti-Iran positions with Saudi

Islamabad does it because

A- Can result in rise of seceterianism in Pakistan itself
B- Iran is a neighbor, Pakistan cannot afford more hostile borders
C- Pakistan is at its core a pan- islamist nation (I am not too sure if it's a good thing)

Taking sides in a beef between Muslim countries isn't exactly a great political decision as far as domestic politics is concerned

 

[RealNapster]

Because the Anglo savages have been chasing Shias every where in their Islamic colonies. As Mr Hempher mentions in his memoire, wherever there was Shia majority, we failed to project power of British kingdom. He mentions that Shias are not controllable, they are not purchase-able and they follow their third imam's way of fighting.

This is not Shia Sunni problem, i have always said that. Its all about colonialism and the ones who say no to colonial bullies and also the submissive ones.

As for Taliban, they need to be cautious of Saudi supported and paid factions. Iran will support them in all areas if they keep their safe distance from Anglo dog Saudi.

One thing for sure, Iran will not hesitate in protecting Shias and so far because of Iranian requests Shia majority areas have accepted Taliban without picking a fight. Its mostly done in order to keep the invading forces such as NATO out of Afghanistan and also for sake of long lasting peace.

Israel should remain our top priority.

Pakistan needs to put itself together man, on one hand they claim supporting taliban on other hand they allow Americans to massacre Taliban. WTF

As far as I am aware, the situation in Afghanistan is bad but still the sectarian issue is not a big one. I don't see daily killings of Shias just because they were Shias. So I think this is a little hypocrite on Iran's part that it want influence on states that have Shia population but won't accept any external influence on its own Sunni population. You took this sectarian shit to Yemen, Iraq and Syria already. You already hiring Shias from Pakistan and Afghanistan in zainabeyun to fight on Iran's behalf in middle East. Stop this shit. I am no Saud fan. Just stating that fact that don't tease nations to a level that they start retaliating. I consider Iran as a brother country but I won't want your sectarian shit to now hit Afghanistan after destabilising 3 Muslim nation's already.

On the part of Mr hempher statement. I am aware of the history of influence British (and later USA) had on Iran for atleast 4-5 decades.

be a hypocrite when it comes to Iran. Currently Pakistan is supporting the Taliban

We support them ideologically not because they are Sunni but because they are a major stakeholder in Afghanistan and is going to rule it in coming days. We always had a stubborn Afghanistan and this is our chance to have a friendly Afghan government led by Taliban. That's why we are supporting them. Your argument is flawed.

Iran is an Islamic Republic and 90%+ Shia. So when Muslims, especially Shia are being oppressed or hurt anywhere, Iranian people care and Iran does have as much of a right as any other country to intervene to defend its national security/interests

Your "right to intervene" ends on your border. Issue with Iran is that it never stop on its border. You are not the choose protector of Shias till eternity. Your national security is not related to murder cases in Afghan towns.

If USA can intervene in the region to defend its national security then why can't Iran?

You are no USA. And even USA don't fight based on sectarianism and religion. They fight for their way of life, their influence and business.