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The giddy brigade
KHURRAM HUSAIN — UPDATED about 4 hours ago
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The writer is a member of staff.
The kind of childish enthusiasm that is growing around the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) needs to be tempered with a little dose of reality. The project is a good one, but people really need to understand that it is a very long-term proposition, not something that is about to start happening within a few years.
Take a couple of examples from the recent past. A few days ago, reports began circulating that Russia had asked to join CPEC and had been granted permission by the Pakistani government. This sounded odd to me, considering the land route to Gwadar port is hardly economically viable for Russia given the enormous distances.
Read: Has CPEC now kicked off?
The reports claimed that a senior official from “the Russian Intelligence Agency” (which one?) was on a visit to Pakistan and engaged in “secret negotiations” and “met with military high ups”. During this visit, he reportedly expressed an interest for his country to join CPEC, and the request was quickly granted.
What exactly does ‘joining CPEC’ mean? Use of the port? Use of the roads to drive cargo to the port?
A closer look at the reports revealed something odd. None of them had a clearly identifiable source, not even unofficial statements given off the record, which are traditionally put in quotes when being reported without attribution. Moreover, it didn’t appear right at all. What does “joining CPEC” really mean? Access to the roads and port? If so, an intelligence official will not be the conduit for such a request. Use of Gwadar port for refuelling and stocking up on supplies for Russian ships, whether military or civilian? Perhaps, but Gwadar is so far away from having that kind of infrastructure that it would make more sense to talk about using Karachi for that sort of operation for the time being.
And in any case, this is not how those kind of talks are held, in secret, between officials from “the Russian Intelligence Agency” and the military. There are formal channels for such talks.
The rumours became intense as they were picked up by TV channels, citing anonymous officials, and sparked some heavy-duty analysis, including from the Indian side, where a former diplomat actually wrote a lengthy column weaving a fantastic scenario around the development. Geopolitical minds were spinning like the wheels of a bullet train, imagining a giant bloc including China, Pakistan and Russia arrayed against India and America simultaneously. I’m always amazed at the speed with which people conjure up geopolitical scenarios of this sort in this country.
Then came the denial to stop the party before things really got out of hand. “Moscow is not discussing the possibility of joining the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor project with Islamabad,” the foreign affairs ministry in Russia tweeted, adding that “Pakistani media reports about ‘secret negotiations’ between Russia and Pakistan on the implementation of projects as part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor are not true to the facts.”
But some amount of damage had already been done. The tale had grown with the telling, with reports appearing that France wanted to join, that Boris Johnson had alluded to Britain’s interest in becoming a part, that Turkmenistan wanted in.
Ask yourself a simple question: what exactly does ‘joining CPEC’ mean? Use of the port? Use of the roads to drive cargo to the port? Contracts for construction of the infrastructure? Refuelling rights at Gwadar? None of the reports cared for these details. A simple runaway list of one country after another lining up to “join CPEC” was presented as some sort of game-changing moment that is about to alter the course of Pakistan’s history.
I often end up playing the role of spoiler in such giddy moments, and then get accused of being a RAW agent, a traitor, a sell-out and every other accusation that people habitually toss at those who hold views different from their own. So let me run that risk one more time. CPEC is a good thing for Pakistan, but as a road project alone, it is not viable for long-distance trade at the moment.
It connects the economy of Pakistan with the economy of Xinjiang province in China, not the total economy of China because most of that is located on the East coast where there are already multiple sea ports available for a fraction of the cost of overland freight.
So how large is the economy of Xinjiang? Answer: $150 billion. Meaning, the project is actually connecting us with an economy that is smaller than our own. I see no sense in the argument that Chinese oil imports could be diverted through Gwadar. Overland cost of transporting oil is multiple times what the sea cost is, and the province of Xinjiang is already surplus in oil, meaning they are not likely to be importing oil through Gwadar, only to transport it overland, across a 16,000-foot mountain pass.
As a strategic proposition, there may yet be more merit to CPEC, but as a commercial proposition, the trade possibilities it is opening up will be decades before they become viable and grow to any appreciable volume. The project should be pursued, but the giddiness needs to be tempered and a more realistic approach is necessary.
I read with sadness the statement by our railway minister that when he asked the Chinese about a bullet train for Pakistan as part of CPEC, “they laughed at us”. I believe there is some amount of snickering in Moscow, London and Paris as well about the reports we’ve been reading lately.
We are approaching the project more as a customer with a credit card in a shopping mall rather than a country with a policy direction and vision of where it wants to go over the next 25 years. If urging a little maturity in our thinking about projects of national importance makes me an agent of foreign powers in the minds of the giddy brigade, then so be it.
The writer is a member of staff.
khurram.husain@gmail.com
Twitter: @khurramhusain
Published in Dawn December 1st, 2016
KHURRAM HUSAIN — UPDATED about 4 hours ago
38 COMMENTS
The writer is a member of staff.
The kind of childish enthusiasm that is growing around the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) needs to be tempered with a little dose of reality. The project is a good one, but people really need to understand that it is a very long-term proposition, not something that is about to start happening within a few years.
Take a couple of examples from the recent past. A few days ago, reports began circulating that Russia had asked to join CPEC and had been granted permission by the Pakistani government. This sounded odd to me, considering the land route to Gwadar port is hardly economically viable for Russia given the enormous distances.
Read: Has CPEC now kicked off?
The reports claimed that a senior official from “the Russian Intelligence Agency” (which one?) was on a visit to Pakistan and engaged in “secret negotiations” and “met with military high ups”. During this visit, he reportedly expressed an interest for his country to join CPEC, and the request was quickly granted.
What exactly does ‘joining CPEC’ mean? Use of the port? Use of the roads to drive cargo to the port?
A closer look at the reports revealed something odd. None of them had a clearly identifiable source, not even unofficial statements given off the record, which are traditionally put in quotes when being reported without attribution. Moreover, it didn’t appear right at all. What does “joining CPEC” really mean? Access to the roads and port? If so, an intelligence official will not be the conduit for such a request. Use of Gwadar port for refuelling and stocking up on supplies for Russian ships, whether military or civilian? Perhaps, but Gwadar is so far away from having that kind of infrastructure that it would make more sense to talk about using Karachi for that sort of operation for the time being.
And in any case, this is not how those kind of talks are held, in secret, between officials from “the Russian Intelligence Agency” and the military. There are formal channels for such talks.
The rumours became intense as they were picked up by TV channels, citing anonymous officials, and sparked some heavy-duty analysis, including from the Indian side, where a former diplomat actually wrote a lengthy column weaving a fantastic scenario around the development. Geopolitical minds were spinning like the wheels of a bullet train, imagining a giant bloc including China, Pakistan and Russia arrayed against India and America simultaneously. I’m always amazed at the speed with which people conjure up geopolitical scenarios of this sort in this country.
Then came the denial to stop the party before things really got out of hand. “Moscow is not discussing the possibility of joining the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor project with Islamabad,” the foreign affairs ministry in Russia tweeted, adding that “Pakistani media reports about ‘secret negotiations’ between Russia and Pakistan on the implementation of projects as part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor are not true to the facts.”
But some amount of damage had already been done. The tale had grown with the telling, with reports appearing that France wanted to join, that Boris Johnson had alluded to Britain’s interest in becoming a part, that Turkmenistan wanted in.
Ask yourself a simple question: what exactly does ‘joining CPEC’ mean? Use of the port? Use of the roads to drive cargo to the port? Contracts for construction of the infrastructure? Refuelling rights at Gwadar? None of the reports cared for these details. A simple runaway list of one country after another lining up to “join CPEC” was presented as some sort of game-changing moment that is about to alter the course of Pakistan’s history.
I often end up playing the role of spoiler in such giddy moments, and then get accused of being a RAW agent, a traitor, a sell-out and every other accusation that people habitually toss at those who hold views different from their own. So let me run that risk one more time. CPEC is a good thing for Pakistan, but as a road project alone, it is not viable for long-distance trade at the moment.
It connects the economy of Pakistan with the economy of Xinjiang province in China, not the total economy of China because most of that is located on the East coast where there are already multiple sea ports available for a fraction of the cost of overland freight.
So how large is the economy of Xinjiang? Answer: $150 billion. Meaning, the project is actually connecting us with an economy that is smaller than our own. I see no sense in the argument that Chinese oil imports could be diverted through Gwadar. Overland cost of transporting oil is multiple times what the sea cost is, and the province of Xinjiang is already surplus in oil, meaning they are not likely to be importing oil through Gwadar, only to transport it overland, across a 16,000-foot mountain pass.
As a strategic proposition, there may yet be more merit to CPEC, but as a commercial proposition, the trade possibilities it is opening up will be decades before they become viable and grow to any appreciable volume. The project should be pursued, but the giddiness needs to be tempered and a more realistic approach is necessary.
I read with sadness the statement by our railway minister that when he asked the Chinese about a bullet train for Pakistan as part of CPEC, “they laughed at us”. I believe there is some amount of snickering in Moscow, London and Paris as well about the reports we’ve been reading lately.
We are approaching the project more as a customer with a credit card in a shopping mall rather than a country with a policy direction and vision of where it wants to go over the next 25 years. If urging a little maturity in our thinking about projects of national importance makes me an agent of foreign powers in the minds of the giddy brigade, then so be it.
The writer is a member of staff.
khurram.husain@gmail.com
Twitter: @khurramhusain
Published in Dawn December 1st, 2016
