What ails the Indian economy?

[Nilgiri]

UP/Bihar human resources development lags behind Tamilnadu. Even if they caught up on human development the physical infrastructure like access to ports cannot be fixed

Well they need to catch up and start changing. Definitely with human development will come better infrastructure. More human development means more productivity and also more desire for further change to increase it. That will improve the infrastructure over time, it can piggy back on the better states in the interim anyway by focusing on connection to those. But without human development + better delivery by bureaucracy, no one wants to invest to create the basic production jobs in the scales needed in these areas.

 

[SBUS-CXK]

Again, you should really desist from spreading lies:

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/i-ne...for-a-hard-landing.520248/page-2#post-9900505

Just like that lie you continually peddled about India attacking China knowing a famine was happening in the latter.



Out of interest do you know anything about how the IIP is sampled compared to the SNA 2008 GVA method used for GDP now...specifically their relative imprints on non formal and below 10 employee enterprises?

Its more useful to discuss that compared to cherry picking numbers thinking there is some international equivalency at play for each one.



Uh no its not, definitely not the way its measured....there is no magic target (given the fuzzy precision and relevance of the estimates in the first place). India has generated huge employment at officially 4% growth before and created next to no employment at near 10% growth...all depending how you measure employment. Its actually quite funny how India expanded around 25% in nominal USD terms one year when it produced negligible formal jobs (yes under Man-moron Sink). You expect half a term of Modi to suddenly fix 2 terms of on the ground (as far as jobs and cold deployed long term capital) economic destruction ("growth" based on hot capital, asset inflation, previous momentum sapping, fiscal mismanagement AND 0 reform)?

You also seem to lack an understanding of unemployment (not a real problem in India) compared to underemployment (the real issue). Its ok you don't need to reply to all this (yet again), its simply not your cup of cha



Yeah, even ignoring what I just typed above for second, do you know how ridiculous you sound? 6.9% = total deterioration compared to 7.1% because of magic 7% threshold determined by some big all knowing computer?

No wonder Mao and extreme leftist ideology of completely controlled and fully 100% "calculated" economic doctrine appealed to you folks so much....it still there lurking to this day. Quite disturbing.



We have been told that since the 70s. We ignore basic things in such statements: Massive short term private market pressure in labour market (compared to long term capital ROI), the creation of many jobs in new sectors esp proliferation of new sectors unimagined before) and taxation on the capital investment route to provide welfare/training long term in relation to all of this.

Doesn't just apply to India either of course.

India's economic policy has no problem.
But India's industrial structure is the biggest problem.

 

[Great Sachin]

Modi is overhauling the economy for faster growth....you can not drive your car when it it being overhauled ....so cool down ...5.7% is just one quarter growth rate....

 

[Nilgiri]

India's economic policy has no problem.
But India's industrial structure is the biggest problem.

Can you explain a bit what you mean?

 

[SBUS-CXK]

Can you explain a bit what you mean?

India is proud of IT industry. And tried to bypass the manufacturing phase. But it turned out to be impossible, so Modi proposed "made in India".

But I've heard that UC browsers and WeChat are popular in India?

 

[ashok321]

Only a miracle can save the Indian economy from Modi govt

 

[pothead]

https://twitter.com/x/status/916232291940044800

 

[ashok321]

Can you imagine some; India is importing Fertilizer from China big way = 10 million metric tons year 2015.

 

[ashok321]

 

[Nilgiri]

India is proud of IT industry. And tried to bypass the manufacturing phase. But it turned out to be impossible, so Modi proposed "made in India".

But I've heard that UC browsers and WeChat are popular in India?

For manufacturing, India did not develop the broad SME base like it did with automobiles/transport esp w.r.t exports (which are pretty successful in comparison, India actually exports more cars both in number and value than China now) in the 90s and after. SME elsewhere only slowly being done now....GST is long overdue for helping this. Only with better demand from such SMEs (that provide to larger conglomerates who do the design/finished product/assembly) can heavy industry then achieve more economies of scale in a feedback loop.

What really stood in the way (in the crucial 90s after 1991 reforms which already is 10+ years after China's and more limited) is the credit-GDP ratio did not increase like in China for number of reasons (labour laws stayed rigid and archaic, inefficient economic buffering, too much focus on real estate rather than capital goods and many more reasons that affected liquidity flow from banks for investment)....so it means only couple industries (with quick ROI and high frequency markers that can raise more capital quickly) could be prioritised/expanded by the private enterprises (outside of IT which was a new industry so had no heritage of regulations).

Modi Make in India will only really thus be a 2nd term thing for developing better, right now so much more reforms need to be done....be it the credit liquidity issues still present or labour problems + training. Good news is that the lessons have been learned by the successful areas (mid populated) and can be implemented in not so successful regions (more heavily populated) without much intervention/direction by federal govt.

 

[SBUS-CXK]

For manufacturing, India did not develop the broad SME base like it did with automobiles/transport esp w.r.t exports (which are pretty successful in comparison, India actually exports more cars both in number and value than China now) in the 90s and after. SME elsewhere only slowly being done now....GST is long overdue for helping this. Only with better demand from such SMEs (that provide to larger conglomerates who do the design/finished product/assembly) can heavy industry then achieve more economies of scale in a feedback loop.

What really stood in the way (in the crucial 90s after 1991 reforms which already is 10+ years after China's and more limited) is the credit-GDP ratio did not increase like in China for number of reasons (labour laws stayed rigid and archaic, inefficient economic buffering, too much focus on real estate rather than capital goods and many more reasons that affected liquidity flow from banks for investment)....so it means only couple industries (with quick ROI and high frequency markers that can raise more capital quickly) could be prioritised/expanded by the private enterprises (outside of IT which was a new industry so had no heritage of regulations).

Modi Make in India will only really thus be a 2nd term thing for developing better, right now so much more reforms need to be done....be it the credit liquidity issues still present or labour problems + training. Good news is that the lessons have been learned by the successful areas (mid populated) and can be implemented in not so successful regions (more heavily populated) without much intervention/direction by federal govt.

China's main exports are machinery and transportation equipment. For example, Mumbai Metro Line 1, Delhi metro. In fact, China's transportation facilities are exported to 102 countries. CRRC has also set up factories in India. For small businesses, DJI is currently the world's leading UAV manufacturer, and even the IDF（Israel Defense Forces） buys DJI products. Chinese drones also set up factories in Saudi arabia（China to open a drone factory in Saudi Arabia）.BYD is the world's top electric car manufacturer.

I think one of the important reasons that affect the small enterprises in India is that India has no uniform tariff system, bad road traffic and power shortages. But the more important reason is the lack of vocational training, shortage of skilled workers in India.

Modi made in India, India's trade deficit with China further expanded. Because China is the most complete industrial system in the world, which has been established in China for 60 years. Even India's “made” guns still need Chinese parts.

Fake Chinese spares for indigenised Bofors guns

But please India friends do not complain that China cheap cheap parts will have an impact on the India weapons.
Because Saudi friends can testify, China' cannons is one of the world's top.

Saudis Use Chinese-made Cannons in Yemen

 

[ashok321]

 

[Nilgiri]

I think one of the important reasons that affect the small enterprises in India is that India has no uniform tariff system, bad road traffic and power shortages. But the more important reason is the lack of vocational training, shortage of skilled workers in India.

Yes and these are all major issues being addressed by the current administration....but they have not even finished one term so we have to give time for the results and analysis.

The targets are increasing, they are not static and even though they are still being missed, the direction is welcome now compared to before (FY17 is only half way through):

There is much to learn from all the mistakes and apply course correction from what works and what doesnt work:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...programs-no-match-for-india-s-army-of-workers

The basic summary in the end:

There’s still much to be done to provide employment to those coming out of these courses, but a good foundation has been laid, said Sougata Roy Choudhury, senior director for skills in the Confederation of Indian Industry. "The challenge is to how to mobilize serious candidates, give them quality training, create superior infrastructure, boost capacity of trainers, streamline accreditation of the training centers and get greater industry engagement."

=====================================

We also see a slip in growth numbers now and then because there are many shocks and reforms being administered to the system. Latest numbers show things are now settling and rebounding, and quite likely to higher levels than before.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.co...ef-christine-lagarde/articleshow/61087784.cms

https://www.ibef.org/news/indias-iip-in-august-highest-in-9-months-inflation-unchanged

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com...-fastest-in-6-months/articleshow/61075560.cms

 

[Shajida Khan]

This is PDF son, it belongs to Pakistan, maybe you are in the wrong place.

Father, If this is PDF then talking about Pakistan's trouble should be of paramount importance.

Distribution of wealth. India has too much money in the hands of too few people. The concept of trickle down is false. Billionaires don't buy from the sabzi mandi or hire a poor woman as a cleaner. They eat at exclusive restaurants and have meals sourced from exotic high end suppliers (businesses owned by millionaires), their apartments are cleaned by specialist firms who know how to treat special expensive materials. Basically the money circulates amongst other wealthy people.

If you want to reduce poverty you need more socialist ideas. Free school meals, free healthcare, unemployment benefits, social housing, micro loans, tax breaks for SME's, regulation to prevent anti competitive behaviour by big firms, price control on gas and electricity, cheap public transport.

Ideas like this directly put the wealth of the elite into the pockets of the poor (via taxation). Those people are then finally able to have extra money which they can either spend on luxury items or invest in business and other economic activities. This in turn will drive growth.

Oh my god! Both India and China had socialistic models for quite sometime. And they were disasters. Massive disasters. Economics is not as cut and dry as you portray. Remember, current China is much much more unequal to 50s or 60s China but still poors in China are much much better in todays China compared to what they were in 50s or 60s. Not to mention they have much lesser poor. Its one thing to be poor in a rich/upper-middle income country and another thing to be a poor in a lower middle to poor country.

If India has one thing to do, that is to get away from being poor as a country even at the cost of inequality. Having a bigger and unequally distributed pie is better than an equally distributed smaller pie. To put in words of Deng, "Let some people get rich first.".

The future is uncertain for India, the millions of jobs needed when AI and robotics is making many jobs redundant.

Even tried training a DNN? The very epitome of AI and modern automation? The ****-a-ton amount of data that needs to be fed to it so it trains is SO huge that to create such a data set takes a HUGE amount of man-power.

Automation will eliminate a lot of jobs at the same time create a lot of other jobs and business opportunities. Remember the time when tailors used to whine about how sewing machines will take their jobs? Well those machines enabled the very same tailors to take much bigger orders.

 

[SBUS-CXK]

Yes and these are all major issues being addressed by the current administration....but they have not even finished one term so we have to give time for the results and analysis.

The targets are increasing, they are not static and even though they are still being missed, the direction is welcome now compared to before (FY17 is only half way through):

There is much to learn from all the mistakes and apply course correction from what works and what doesnt work:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...programs-no-match-for-india-s-army-of-workers

The basic summary in the end:

There’s still much to be done to provide employment to those coming out of these courses, but a good foundation has been laid, said Sougata Roy Choudhury, senior director for skills in the Confederation of Indian Industry. "The challenge is to how to mobilize serious candidates, give them quality training, create superior infrastructure, boost capacity of trainers, streamline accreditation of the training centers and get greater industry engagement."

=====================================

We also see a slip in growth numbers now and then because there are many shocks and reforms being administered to the system. Latest numbers show things are now settling and rebounding, and quite likely to higher levels than before.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.co...ef-christine-lagarde/articleshow/61087784.cms

https://www.ibef.org/news/indias-iip-in-august-highest-in-9-months-inflation-unchanged

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com...-fastest-in-6-months/articleshow/61075560.cms

Long time no see, I guess you're on another forum. Welcome back.