Mansoor Ahmed from Quaid-e-Azam University’s Department of Defence and Strategic Studies, who specializes in Pakistan’s national deterrent and delivery programs, says this fits into a long pattern of reporting that shows Pakistan has a fast-growing arsenal but one he believes still pales in comparison to India’s.
He highlights a number of reports, including from the IPFM itself, that show India “is expanding and adding several un-safeguarded facilities in its military nuclear fuel cycle suitable for producing fissile material,” and has the world’s fastest growing nuclear program.
“These include the rare materials plant centrifuge facility; a second plutonium production reactor; and one 500 megawatt electricity experimental fast breeder reactor. In addition, four reprocessing plants of 350 thm/year [tons of heavy metal per year] are in operation, an industrial-scale 500 thm/year reprocessing plant and another large industrial scale centrifuge enrichment plant are in the pipeline along with four additional” fast breeder reactors by 2020, he said.
“As of the end of 2013, India’s fissile material stockpiles include 800-1,000 kilograms of weapon-grade plutonium from CIRUS and Dhruva-1 production reactors; 2 tons of highly enriched uranium [HEU] from RMP; and 15 tons of weapon-usable reactor-grade plutonium from its pressurized heavy water reactors [PHWRs].”
He says the significance of these cannot be underestimated.
“These stocks are outside [International Atomic Energy Agency] safeguards and are sufficient for producing about 250 warheads from weapon-grade plutonium; 40 warheads from HEU; and 1,875 warheads from reactor-grade plutonium, which was used in one of India’s 1998 nuclear tests” he said.
Additional capabilities will be added within the next three to five years, he said, that could produce another 171 kilograms of weapon-grade plutonium.
“These figures would add up with existing capacities and would allow India to produce about 100 warheads from weapon-grade plutonium and HEU each year in addition to 50 warheads from one PHWR run on low-burn up,” he said.
“Even if a fraction of the other seven PHWRs are used to produce fuel for India’s fast breeder reactors as claimed, these can still add another 137 weapons worth of fissile material each year,” he said.
“Compared to this, Pakistan’s total existing and expected annual fissile material production capacity from four Khushab plutonium production reactors is not more than 46 kilograms of weapon-grade plutonium and 100-125 kilograms of weapon-grade HEU, only sufficient for 17 warheads annually.”
