Washington Should Encourage The Philippines To Go Its Own Way With China

[Cossack25A1]

We should agree to Duterte's request that the US leave. Once he has taken the Philippines down the drain and get booted out, the next leader will ask US back in. Simple as that.

Hmm in 2022, well it would depend on how the "sleeping with China" went.

 

[Abacin]

Philippine has no future. No country kneeling before Pope has become a modern industrial society. Queen Elizabeth I initiated a war with Rome Catholic Pope, which helped the establishment of Great Britain empire. United States also banned Pope from the American land until Obama broke the rule. China officially also bans Roman Catholic since 1949 and China has become a major industrial power. Pope represents medieval religious society. If a country adores Catholic Pope, the country should stay in the medieval era.

China should also stay away from Philippine with only business involvement. Let United States and Japan waste time on them.

 

[gambit]

Hmm in 2022, well it would depend on how the "sleeping with China" went.

China will have next to nothing to do with the Philippines. Not to be mean, but you have nothing worthwhile to offer China.

Geopolitics is the study of how geography influences and even direct regional politics. The Philippines do not affect anyone else. You are an island state where one side is a vast stretch of ocean and on the other side, a country ( China ) is an overwhelming force. The Philippines affects no one and given the weaker military status to China, the Philippines have nothing to offer China in return for Chinese largesse. Without the US, China WILL take control of the SCS faster than any benefits any Sino-Filipino alliance can produce.

 

[Cossack25A1]

China will have next to nothing to do with the Philippines. Not to be mean, but you have nothing worthwhile to offer China.

Geopolitics is the study of how geography influences and even direct regional politics. The Philippines do not affect anyone else. You are an island state where one side is a vast stretch of ocean and on the other side, a country ( China ) is an overwhelming force. The Philippines affects no one and given the weaker military status to China, the Philippines have nothing to offer China in return for Chinese largesse. Without the US, China WILL take control of the SCS faster than any benefits any Sino-Filipino alliance can produce.

The recent shift in foreign policy of the PH under Duterte will likely end up with China totally controlling SCS. He had said before that he will stop any joint PH-US military exercises and patrols because China doesn't want it... and it seems that he is dead serious on what he said.

While the PH may not offer anything to China, the CCP is doing everything to get Duterte on their side because of the "First Island Chain" since their objective is clear - remove American presence in the Asia-Pacific. They will use their economic might and make offers of development just to make the PH shut up about the SCS issue.

 

[Beast]

The recent shift in foreign policy of the PH under Duterte will likely end up with China totally controlling SCS. He had said before that he will stop any joint PH-US military exercises and patrols because China doesn't want it... and it seems that he is dead serious on what he said.

While the PH may not offer anything to China, the CCP is doing everything to get Duterte on their side because of the "First Island Chain" since their objective is clear - remove American presence in the Asia-Pacific. They will use their economic might and make offers of development just to make the PH shut up about the SCS issue.

And you will have the poverty reduce! China will compensate by investment, train, airport, power station, school and roads.
Duterte is no idiot. He do what is best for Philippine.

 

[gambit]

The recent shift in foreign policy of the PH under Duterte will likely end up with China totally controlling SCS. He had said before that he will stop any joint PH-US military exercises and patrols because China doesn't want it... and it seems that he is dead serious on what he said.

If Duterte genuinely believes China have no designs on the SCS, then either Duterte is truly stupid, or his advisers are, or worse both. The Chinese signs are obvious as to what China want.

While the PH may not offer anything to China, the CCP is doing everything to get Duterte on their side because of the "First Island Chain" since their objective is clear - remove American presence in the Asia-Pacific. They will use their economic might and make offers of development just to make the PH shut up about the SCS issue.

The highlighted is non-realizable.

When we say 'undead', it mean the body was once alive, then died, then reanimated. So when I said 'non' it mean not possible. There are no prior conditions. If the US is not active in Asia, it is because we chose to leave, not because anyone, not even China, can make US leave. The Philippines is not the only country in Asia that we can have an alliance with. Viet Nam is probably the better option in terms of geopolitics.

If China gain control of the SCS with Filipino complicity, Duterte will go down in Filipino's history as the worst leader you yet have. Any economic build up will be short term. Look at the history of the Soviet empire for a sobering lesson. Just like Havana that mooched off Moscow, Manila will be dependent upon Beijing. You think the Philippines' elites will rise up in defense of their country when dollars, not RMB, are dangled in front of them by way of Duterte ?

 

[Nan Yang]

Manila pivot: Duterte to take huge delegation to China
As tensions with United States mount, president will be joined by around 250 business executives on his visit to Beijing next week

http://www.atimes.com/article/philippines-pivot-duterte-take-huge-delegation-china/

 

[TopCat]

The main reason Chinse are interested in 9 dotted lines are the US presence in Malacca strait. If US leaves then the importance of 9 dotted lines will cease and PH will get back its freedom of navigation through dotted lines.

 

[gambit]

The main reason Chinse are interested in 9 dotted lines are the US presence in Malacca strait. If US leaves then the importance of 9 dotted lines will cease and PH will get back its freedom of navigation through dotted lines.

This is like saying that if the police leave, there will no longer be any criminals.

No...I am NOT saying China is the criminal and the US is the policeman. NOT saying so.

What I am saying is that you showed a serious lack of understanding of the use and display of power in inter-state relationships, namely, the absence of a power does not equate to the absence of those who would seek to dominate.

The goal of any country is to ensure its own survival and there is nothing more assured of that than sheer physical power. Restrained, maybe. But there is no substitute for physical power. Even the ability to inflict damages, if not outright victory, is enough as a deterrence factor. Most modern states are comfortable with the idea that all they need is enough power to inflict damages, not conquering, power. See European Union.

But for a state that feels there is a need to project, if not actually have, overwhelming physical power over its immediate neighbors, the absence of a current dominant power is nothing but an invitation to become that dominant power and to work hard to assure that status for as long as possible.

The US did nothing to introduce and nurture in China the seed of the idea of the need for a Chinese dominance in Asia. That was done by the Europeans when they carved up China for their own interests. Next was the Japanese when they invaded mainland China and took over Manchuria. If anything, it was the US who had no colonial interests in mainland China and who helped the Chinese against Imperial Japan in WW II.

What motivated China to work to become the dominant Asian power was that 'hundred yrs of humiliation' produced by the Europeans, and now, since there is a status quo, an equilibrium of physical prowess among the Asian states, an inter-states condition that was majorly affected by the US from the end of WW II and throughout the Cold War, China is able to become that dominant power regardless of whether there is a US presence or not.

Let me put it this way...Even if I live in a gated neighborhood patrolled by our own security forces, that does not mean I should not have locks on my doors. Likewise, if there is no apparent challenges to my aspiration to be the dominant force in my neighborhood, that does not mean I should not become that dominant force. If an opportunity arise -- take it. My survival may not have been threatened before, but now my survival is even more assured in spite of a current security force.

 

[Cossack25A1]

If Duterte genuinely believes China have no designs on the SCS, then either Duterte is truly stupid, or his advisers are, or worse both. The Chinese signs are obvious as to what China want.


The highlighted is non-realizable.

When we say 'undead', it mean the body was once alive, then died, then reanimated. So when I said 'non' it mean not possible. There are no prior conditions. If the US is not active in Asia, it is because we chose to leave, not because anyone, not even China, can make US leave. The Philippines is not the only country in Asia that we can have an alliance with. Viet Nam is probably the better option in terms of geopolitics.

If China gain control of the SCS with Filipino complicity, Duterte will go down in Filipino's history as the worst leader you yet have. Any economic build up will be short term. Look at the history of the Soviet empire for a sobering lesson. Just like Havana that mooched off Moscow, Manila will be dependent upon Beijing. You think the Philippines' elites will rise up in defense of their country when dollars, not RMB, are dangled in front of them by way of Duterte ?

His statements in regards to China and the offered development aid indiindicates he believes that China's design for the SCS is "not bad" and instead sees what the US plans for the region as "bad".

While it is impossible for China to eject the US in the Asia-Pacific region, their objective is clear - to have significant influence over the nation's near China, even if it means attempting to control the SCS.

Given that for the next 6 years the PH relation with the US may experience downturn, it is likely that China will take advantage of this, using their economic might to sway Filipinos even if it meant losing an entire EEZ West of the Philippine islands.