War, Pipelineistan-style

[fd24]

United States Secretary of State Hillary "We came, we saw, he died" Clinton's message to Pakistan was stark; try to go ahead with the IP (Iran-Pakistan) gas pipeline, and we're going to take you out financially.

Islamabad, its economy in tatters, living in power-cut land, and desperate for energy, tried to argue. Pakistan's top official in the Petroleum and Natural Resources Ministry, Muhammad Ejaz Chaudhry, stressed that the 2,775-km, $1.5 billion IP was absolutely crucial for Pakistan's energy security.

That fell on deaf ears. Clinton evoked "particularly damaging" sanctions - tied to Washington's push to isolate Iran by all means available and the no-holds-barred campaign to force particularly India, China and Turkey to cut off their imports of Iranian oil and gas.

So as Washington has been impotent to disrupt Pipelineistan moves in Central Asia - by isolating Iran and bypassing Russia - it's now going ballistic to prevent by all means the crucial integration of Southwest Asia and South Asia, from Iran's giant South Pars gas field to Pakistan's Balochistan and Sindh provinces.

IP, it should be remembered, is the original, $7 billion IPI; Iran-Pakistan-India, also known as the "peace pipeline". India dropped out in 2009 after non-stop harassment by the George W Bush and then Barack Obama administrations; India was offered access to civilian nuclear technology.

China, for its part, is still eyeing the possibility of extending IP out of Gwadar port, then crossing to Pakistan's north alongside the Karakoram Highway all the way to Xinjiang. China is already helping Islamabad to build civilian nuclear reactors - as part of Pakistan's energy security policy.

ICBC, China's largest bank and the world's number one lender, was already positioned as financial adviser to IP. But then, contemplating the (sanctions) writing on the wall, it started to "show less interest", as Islamabad chose to spin it. Is ICBC totally out? Not exactly. At least according to the Pakistani Ministry of Petroleum's spokesman, Irfan Ashraf Qazid; "ICBC is still engaged in the IP project and the negotiations are still going on."

A mega-bank such as ICBC, with myriad global interests, may be wary of defying the Washington sanction machine; but other financing options may be found, as in other banks or government-level agreements with China or Russia. Pakistan's Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar has just made it very clear. Pakistan badly needs gas that should start flowing by December 2014.

Islamabad and Tehran have already agreed on pricing. Iran's 900-km stretch of IP is already built; Pakistan's is starting, via ILF Engineering from Germany. Iran's IRNA agency said Pakistan has announced that the IP is still on; predictably, Western media spin is that the Chinese got scared and backed out.

IPC, anyone?

For Washington, the only way to go is another Pipelineistan gambit - the perennially troubled TAPI (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India). Even assuming it will find financing; even assuming the Taliban will be taking their cut (that was, in fact, why negotiations between them and the Bill Clinton then Bush administrations failed); and even assuming it would not be bombed routinely by mujahideen, TAPI would only be ready, optimistically, by 2018. And Islamabad simply can't wait that long.
Predictably, Washington's anti-IP campaign has been relentless - including, of course, shadow war. Islamabad is convinced that the CIA, the Indian intel agency RAW, the Israeli Mossad and the British MI-6 have been actively conspiring to get some sort of Greater Balochistan to secede from the central government. They have been, a la Libyan model, financing and weaponizing selected Baloch fighters. Not because they love their independent spirit - but as a means to balkanize Pakistan.

To compound Washington's fury, "isolated" Iran, by the way, is about to start exporting an extra 80,000 barrels of oil a day to Pakistan; and has already committed $250 million to the Pakistani stretch of IP.

This has got the potential of becoming much, much uglier. Washington won't be deterred from its intent to smash IP. For an Iran under pressure and a strangled Pakistani economy - as well as China - this is all about the Asian Energy Security Grid.

ICBC may be out - sort of. But the whole thing could become even juicier if Beijing decides to step in for good, and turn it from IP to IPC. Will Washington have the guts to defy Beijing head on?

Asia Times Online :: War, Pipelineistan-style

 

[lem34]

Something to add:

US-Russia confrontation over Pakistan
14 March 2012, 18:41 (GMT+04:00)

Azerbaijan, Baku, March 14 / Trend /

Azer Ahmedbeyli, Trend analytical centre expert

About which reset can we speak, if the United States and Russia from time to time show polar positions on the major international problems? Examples abound: expansion of NATO toward Russia's borders, placement of missile defense in Europe, attitude to confrontation in Libya which has already become a history, today's confrontation in Syria, the parties' positions regarding Iran's nuclear program. There are also more subtle forms of confrontation, such as in Central Asia. If we remove the rhetoric and look at the action, it makes grade as a continuation of the Cold War. The names, as well as the scope and methods, in this case are not of fundamental importance, the main thing is that the essence of what is happening doesn't change: the confrontation, though not direct, as in the Caribbean crisis continues, and often without taking into account interests of third countries involved in it.

Pakistan by virtue of a range of circumstances may be the next target in the struggle for spheres of influence. Until recently, this question was not at agenda at all, Pakistan was, and is likely to remain a reliable strategic ally of the United States. Not mentioning the well-known fact in the recent cooling of US-Pakistani relations, let's focus only on one thing - the issue of gas pipeline project from Iran to Pakistan. Pakistan's economy, according to international organizations, is one of the fastest growing in the world. Acute need to provide it with hydrocarbon fuel makes Islamabad to act strictly from the perspective of its economic interests. United States, for obvious reasons, are dead set against this project, as well as any other, where the word Iran is. The U.S. uses such arguments as persuasion of Islamabad that Iran is an unreliable partner, and veiled threats, such as the submitting to Congress in February issue of self-determination of Balochistan province.

Pakistani press reported that these days the Pakistani side received from Russia a proposal to grant the right to build the Pakistani section of the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline to Gazprom hors concours. As pointed out by the Pakistani media, in this case Moscow will provide funding for the project, which costs $1.2 billion. Pakistan itself has limited means to finance the project.

Isn't it an episode of the Cold War? However, we must mention that this is one of the few occasions when it is not Russia but the U.S. that needs to find a counter plea on a given initiative.

Recently, according to some media reports, the administration of Pakistani President said that new Russian President Vladimir Putin accepted the invitation of Pakistani Prime Minister Yusuf Reza Gilani to visit this country. If the information is correct, then this will be the first visit of Russian President to Pakistan since 1948, i.e. since the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries (the Russian Federation as the successor to the USSR), and it will also confirm the assumption that Pakistan is becoming another field of conflict of interests between the two great powers.

You can't make an omelet without breaking eggs, and no end in sight. The economy of Pakistan, nearly half of consumed energy resources of which falls to natural gas could become hostage to high politics.

Pakistan's proven gas reserves, which, according to the international energy agencies are about 900 billion cubic meters, while maintaining the current production capacity, will reduce dramatically in 20-25 years. In 1999, Pakistan consumed 20.3 billion cubic meters of gas per year. After 10 years, in 2009, the figure nearly doubled - to 38.7 billion cubic meters. In 2015, this level is expected to reach 92 billion cubic meters. It is assumed that during this time natural gas production in the country will reduce to 31.5 billion cubic meters. Ten years later, Pakistan will need import of 60 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year to meet the domestic needs.


US-Russia confrontation over Pakistan - Trend

Russia & Iran shows interest for establishment of Pak-Iran gas pipeline
South Asian News Agency (SANA) ⋅ March 13, 2012 ⋅ Share/Save

ISLAMABAD, (SANA): Russia & Iran shown interest for establishment of Pak-Iran gas pipeline; meanwhile Iran also offered 20 million dollars initially for the project to Pakistan.

The meeting of Economic Coordination Committee was held in Islamabad and was chaired by Federal Finance Minister Abdul Hafeez Shaikh. The meeting approved Rs 6.1 billion for tumbling Pakistan Railways.

During the meeting, a committee has been constituted comprising Federal Minister Water and Power Naveed Qammar, Petroleum Minister Dr Asim, Governor State bank of Pakistan and Secretary Economic Affairs Division to review Pak-Iran gas pipeline project. The committee will present its report regarding the project within two or three days.

The meeting also formed a committee under the supervision of Naveed Qammar to review 1.2 million wheat exports to Iran. The Economic Coordination Committee also set urea price at Rs 1600 per 40 kilogram.
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[Irfan Baloch]

wonderful read guys

well done

I will comment further once I can spare some time. this pipeline will need to be protected by constant presence of forces to repel the BLA terrorists who will be funded and armed by the countries that have expressed their hostilities towards this project.

 

[Lone Shooter]

United States Secretary of State Hillary "We came, we saw, he died" Clinton