Vietnam Economy Forum

[Fsjal]

That's Vietnam's average growth rate since the 90s I believe, not our current one.

Was this because of the "doi ma" or "renovation" reform?

 

[visom]

Was this because of the "doi ma" or "renovation" reform?

i believe so.

 

[Viet]

High growth rate must be coupled with quality of growth. Other than North East Asian countries, most developing countries are not sustainable with high growth for long period. 4-5 years, or even a decade with sky high growth rates, then a crisis come, and all achieved growth will be downed the drain. That's why many countries in South East Asia and South America, despite of years of high growth rate number, still are middle income countries, hence the term "middle income trap".

I think Vietnam will develop better with 5%, but sustainable, growth rate, rather than 8% but not sustainable. By borrowing and investing, one country can be relatively easy to reach 8% growth, especially when starting from a low-level like Vietnam. But that development will not last.

well, if Vietnam is as rich as Singapore, then we can be happy with growth rate of 5%. Think again, what does it mean for us with such a low development rate?

- the poor people will have to wait longer before they get support from the government
- their children have more problems to find a job
- our navy must wait before new warships can be ordered
- our airforce waits and waits for the new planes
- improvement of our infrastructures? yes, we can wait another year
- etc...

"middle income trap" is just good for academic discussion, nothing more.

 

[AViet]

well, if Vietnam is as rich as Singapore, then we can be happy with growth rate of 5%. Think again, what does it mean for us with such a low development rate?

- the poor people will have to wait longer before they get support from the government
- their children have more problems to find a job
- our navy must wait before new warships can be ordered
- our airforce waits and waits for the new planes
- improvement of our infrastructures? yes, we can wait another year
- etc...

"middle income trap" is just good for academic discussion, nothing more.

I have my own theory about average IQ of countries who felt into "middle income trap", but it is politically incorrect to discuss here. Therefore, I believe Vietnam can escape this trap, even with 5% growth rate.

 

[DaiViet]

The whole time you were a Vietnamese using a false flag. Why? Do you hate your own country?

Yue10 is not Vietnamese. He is Chinese pretend to be Vietnamese. He has been running his mouth in several forum trying to brainwash Vietnamese to think TPP is equal to being slaves and is bad. He is doing that for the Chinese because China has been oppose TPP lead by U.S.

This Yue10 think that all Vietnamese is dumb enough to fall into his trap?

 

[yue10]

can´t you stop insults and start talking meaningful? and what the hell, why you changed your flag again? If you are a Viet as you say, then change back and stop bad-mouthing your motherland. I hate communism, but I love my country Vietnam. As for Singapore, it is NOT a sick country, you idiot.

you posted correctly why Vietnam will benefit if we join TPP. So why complaining? Your logic is, anyone who trades with America becomes slave. If true, everyone is a slave, well except North Korea, the country you selected as your home.

do you think I call your Viets slave mentality for fun, I did not highlight anything to say TPP is good, I was not talking about trade but 'free trade' and loose foreign capital flow will destroy your Viets, do your Viets know what is neo-colonialism? there is no such thing as territorial conquest in the modern world, they enslave you by opening up the developing country through economic liberalisation use IMF, World Bank and FTAs to make your idiot Viets rely everything from outsiders, are your Viets with slave mentality don't want VN to produce it's own goods and services under your own names but forever rely on outsiders

as I said Singapore is a sick country begging foreign elite to come live in the country like Jim Rogers and the Facebook guy, of course there will be many Sarong Party girl for the Saverin to pleasure himself with LOL! sick country is Singapore
if you love VN why you are living in Germany?

High growth rate must be coupled with quality of growth. Other than North East Asian countries, most developing countries are not sustainable with high growth for long period. 4-5 years, or even a decade with sky high growth rates, then a crisis come, and all achieved growth will be downed the drain. That's why many countries in South East Asia and South America, despite of years of high growth rate number, still are middle income countries, hence the term "middle income trap".

I think Vietnam will develop better with 5%, but sustainable, growth rate, rather than 8% but not sustainable. By borrowing and investing, one country can be relatively easy to reach 8% growth, especially when starting from a low-level like Vietnam. But that development will not last.

complete

I have my own theory about average IQ of countries who felt into "middle income trap", but it is politically incorrect to discuss here. Therefore, I believe Vietnam can escape this trap, even with 5% growth rate.

I think you should present your theory but most likely it will be all lies

Yue10 is not Vietnamese. He is Chinese pretend to be Vietnamese. He has been running his mouth in several forum trying to brainwash Vietnamese to think TPP is equal to being slaves and is bad. He is doing that for the Chinese because China has been oppose TPP lead by U.S.

This Yue10 think that all Vietnamese is dumb enough to fall into his trap?

let me show your Viets how I am not the Chinese, very rarely I go outside to even look the threads that does not involve something with VN but when I do did you ever see me post anything to praise the Chinese, for example look this thread, just on 1st page 5 Pakistan like the running dog of Chinese desperate to claim relation with Chinese and kow tow to Sino master, it is a joke, never once did I care anything of Chinese unless it relate to VN
http://www.defence.pk/forums/china-far-east/280855-defence-pk-celebrates-chinese-national-day.html

hahaha I thought you are the member EastSea but maybe not, can any of your Viets say why TPP is good except for reading the article that say VN is included? you Viets is desperate slave mentality must think the outsider country is like a hero will help VN, I did not think all Viets is dumb but I remember one of your Viets on the scholar girl's VR site said DPRK's per capita GDP is higher than VN, it should be basic common sense to know that is untrue but that Viet still believed it was true

 

[Minjitta]

do you think I call your Viets slave mentality for fun, I did not highlight anything to say TPP is good, I was not talking about trade but 'free trade' and loose foreign capital flow will destroy your Viets, do your Viets know what is neo-colonialism? there is no such thing as territorial conquest in the modern world, they enslave you by opening up the developing country through economic liberalisation use IMF, World Bank and FTAs to make your idiot Viets rely everything from outsiders, are your Viets with slave mentality don't want VN to produce it's own goods and services under your own names but forever rely on outsiders

as I said Singapore is a sick country begging foreign elite to come live in the country like Jim Rogers and the Facebook guy, of course there will be many Sarong Party girl for the Saverin to pleasure himself with LOL! sick country is Singapore
if you love VN why you are living in Germany?


complete


I think you should present your theory but most likely it will be all lies


let me show your Viets how I am not the Chinese, very rarely I go outside to even look the threads that does not involve something with VN but when I do did you ever see me post anything to praise the Chinese, for example look this thread, just on 1st page 5 Pakistan like the running dog of Chinese desperate to claim relation with Chinese and kow tow to Sino master, it is a joke, never once did I care anything of Chinese unless it relate to VN
http://www.defence.pk/forums/china-far-east/280855-defence-pk-celebrates-chinese-national-day.html

hahaha I thought you are the member EastSea but maybe not, can any of your Viets say why TPP is good except for reading the article that say VN is included? you Viets is desperate slave mentality must think the outsider country is like a hero will help VN, I did not think all Viets is dumb but I remember one of your Viets on the scholar girl's VR site said DPRK's per capita GDP is higher than VN, it should be basic common sense to know that is untrue but that Viet still believed it was true

Yue10 I completely understand your point of view, the whole world are under IMF, WB, WHO ect.. control. Vietnam is a small country and she got other choice but stay in line. As long as human still have influences of materials, and power we all will be in slave for the IMF, WB etc..
Name me a country that are not under influence of the WB, IMF etc..
What is your ideas for Vietnam and other countries should do to avoid this so call neo-colonialism?

 

[yue10]

Yue10 I completely understand your point of view, the whole world are under IMF, WB, WHO ect.. control. Vietnam is a small country and she got other choice but stay in line. As long as human still have influences of materials, and power we all will be in slave for the IMF, WB etc..
Name me a country that are not under influence of the WB, IMF etc..
What is your ideas for Vietnam and other countries should do to avoid this so call neo-colonialism?

I am not smart enough to give the ideas except for look what the Joseph Stiglitz and Ha-Joon Chang said about how to develop properly, when you are a developing country you do not liberalise your economy if you want to prosper, VN was sadly destroyed by the foreigner that did not have right to decide if VN to adopt communism or not, they are blame communism for failures in VN when it was them who sanctioned the country into poverty and the idiot Viets with sick mentality now looking at the outsider as heroes as if they are rescuing VN, WB and IMF is tool of the rich countries especially imperialist US to enslave developing countries so there are many that do not need to accept their loans, the countries in South America have already experienced this 'help' and now rejected it, the leader and experts in VN is much smarter than me so I did not understand how they are thinking, what is the point of fighting all the war or have a country if you are just going to let foreigner come in and control everything, Asian Tiger countries is lacking natural resources and that is why they are forced to be trading nations to gain forex, your Viets is abundant resources do not need massive export led economy once you have tech and know how in the future but you are accepting the slavery of World Bank induced SAPs

The price of Vietnam being allowed to come out of isolation was the destruction of its health services

27 November 2000
In reporting Bill Clinton's visit to Vietnam, the BBC's diplomatic correspondent declared that what the Vietnamese needed was "more economic growth". The question begged: why send a reporter all the way to Hanoi when the British ambassador would have happily propagated this line?
On the surface, the Clinton trip was little more than a stunt seeking international respectability for a disgraced presidency. What it concealed was America's unfinished business of imposing its will on Vietnam and a largely unreported struggle within the country against the destructiveness of economic growth: the jargon for laissez-faire capitalism underpinned by rapacious foreign corporations. Clinton called this "the economic equivalent of a force of nature".
That the Vietnamese leadership signed only two relatively minor multilateral agreements was indicative of the caution in Hanoi in embracing 'the force of nature'. This is not to say the Communist Party leadership is itself opposed to a "market" system that has already enriched a small minority. Indeed, the policy known as Doi Moi, or 'renovation', was conceived as a means of breaking out of the embargo that was put in place by the US following its humiliating defeat in 1975. In classifying Vietnam a 'Category Z' country, Washington imposed sanctions more isolating than even those against Cuba. The World Bank was warned off and humanitarian aid was stopped or obstructed; the new British prime minister, Margaret Thatcher, persuaded the EU to halt shipments of milk to Vietnamese children. The American objective was to continue the war by other means.
In 1986, besieged by shortages and a war-devastated economy, the top three leaders in Hanoi resigned, handing over to those, notably Nguyen Van Linh, who saw ?the market? as the means of lifting the siege. Companies such as Nike were offered tax holidays and cheap labour in 'economic processing zones'- vast sweatshops. In 1995, the then chancellor of the exchequer, Kenneth Clarke, visited Hanoi with a group of British businessmen who had been given a briefing document by the Department of Trade and Industry. "Labour rates are as low as $35 a month," it said. "Take the long view, use Vietnam's weaknesses selfishly. Vietnam's open door invites you to take advantage of its low standard of living and low wages."
The World Bank now offered loans conditional on the sacking of tens of thousands of workers from public enterprises and the scrapping of public services that were once the envy of other poor countries. Even during the long years of war, primary care where people lived and worked had raised life expectancy to among the highest in the developing world. More babies had survived birth and their first precarious years than in most Asian countries. Now, under the tutelage of the foreign donor community, the government was forced to abandon support for health services; diseases, such as malaria, dengue and cholera, returned. It was as if the Vietnamese were finally being granted membership of the international community as long as they created a society based on divisions of wealth and poverty and exploited labour, in which social achievements were no longer valued: the kind of foreign-imposed system they had sacrificed so much to escape. It seemed, wrote Gabriel Kolko in his classic work, Anatomy of a War, that the Vietnam war would finally end in "the defeat of all who fought in it - and one of the greatest tragedies of modern history".
However, by 1994, the resistance was growing and alarming the government. Although unreported in the controlled press, strikes swept across Saigon and were widely supported. In 1997, Nike, which employs 35,000 mostly female workers, was hit by rolling strikes. The police did nothing, a clear sign of the authorities' concern. In the countryside, the privatisation of land brought administrative chaos and popular anger. Government offices were sacked and officials forced to flee for their lives. One of the biggest single foreign investors in Vietnam, Daewoo, sent its chairman to express the company's alarm. Nguyen Van Linh, the architect of Doi Moi, began to have second thoughts, and market reforms were curtailed, which helps to explain why Vietnam escaped the Asian economic collapse in 1998.
Had the BBC's diplomatic correspondent read a little history, he might have said that what Vietnam needed was not economic growth, but justice. The catastrophe wreaked by the American invasion might have been eased had the United States honoured a 1973 agreement that Henry Kissinger, the then secretary of state, said would bring "peace with honour". He was referring to a cornerstone of the ceasefire agreement, a promise by the then president, Richard Nixon, of $3.25bn in reparations. Not a cent was paid.
The Americans have spent millions of dollars on the highly politicised exercise of looking for bone fragments of downed American pilots. Not a cent has gone to remove 3.5 million landmines, or to compensate the victims of Agent Orange. This defoliant was an American weapon of mass destruction containing the carcinogenic dioxin. In 1970, a Senate report estimated that "the US had dumped [on southern Vietnam] a quantity of toxic chemical amounting to six pounds per head of population". Had Clinton visited the giant Tu Du Hospital, he would have grimaced at the rows of malformed newborn babies. Along with many of their colleagues in the west, the doctors here are in no doubt that Dioxin is the cause. The truth is that Vietnam's battles will not be over until the enduring debt they are owed by an invader is paid in full.

The price of Vietnam being allowed to come out of isolation was the destruction of its health services

An obvious place to look for inspiration is the recent history of the host country. In my lifetime Korea has lived through one of the greatest development miracles – half a century ago, its annual per capita income was around £50, less than half that of Ghana at the time. Today, it stands at £12,000, putting it on a par with Portugal and Slovenia. How was this possible?

Korea of course did things that most people agree are important for economic development, such as investment in infrastructure, health and education. But on top of that, it also practised many policies that are now supposed to be bad for economic development: extensive use of selective industrial policy, combining protectionism with export subsidies; tough regulations on foreign direct investment; active, if not particularly extensive, use of state-owned enterprises; lax protection of patents and other intellectual property rights; heavy regulation of both domestic and international finance.

It's time to reject the Washington consensus | Ha-Joon Chang | Comment is free | The Guardian

Yue10 I completely understand your point of view, the whole world are under IMF, WB, WHO ect.. control. Vietnam is a small country and she got other choice but stay in line. As long as human still have influences of materials, and power we all will be in slave for the IMF, WB etc..
Name me a country that are not under influence of the WB, IMF etc..
What is your ideas for Vietnam and other countries should do to avoid this so call neo-colonialism?

I am not smart enough to give the ideas except for look what the Joseph Stiglitz and Ha-Joon Chang said about how to develop properly, when you are a developing country you do not liberalise your economy if you want to prosper, VN was sadly destroyed by the foreigner that did not have right to decide if VN to adopt communism or not, they are blame communism for failures in VN when it was them who sanctioned the country into poverty and the idiot Viets with sick mentality now looking at the outsider as heroes as if they are rescuing VN, WB and IMF is tool of the rich countries especially imperialist US to enslave developing countries so there are many that do not need to accept their loans, the countries in South America have already experienced this 'help' and now rejected it, the leader and experts in VN is much smarter than me so I did not understand how they are thinking, what is the point of fighting all the war or have a country if you are just going to let foreigner come in and control everything, Asian Tiger countries is lacking natural resources and that is why they are forced to be trading nations to gain forex, your Viets is abundant resources do not need massive export led economy once you have tech and know how in the future but you are accepting the slavery of World Bank induced SAPs

The price of Vietnam being allowed to come out of isolation was the destruction of its health services

27 November 2000
In reporting Bill Clinton's visit to Vietnam, the BBC's diplomatic correspondent declared that what the Vietnamese needed was "more economic growth". The question begged: why send a reporter all the way to Hanoi when the British ambassador would have happily propagated this line?
On the surface, the Clinton trip was little more than a stunt seeking international respectability for a disgraced presidency. What it concealed was America's unfinished business of imposing its will on Vietnam and a largely unreported struggle within the country against the destructiveness of economic growth: the jargon for laissez-faire capitalism underpinned by rapacious foreign corporations. Clinton called this "the economic equivalent of a force of nature".
That the Vietnamese leadership signed only two relatively minor multilateral agreements was indicative of the caution in Hanoi in embracing 'the force of nature'. This is not to say the Communist Party leadership is itself opposed to a "market" system that has already enriched a small minority. Indeed, the policy known as Doi Moi, or 'renovation', was conceived as a means of breaking out of the embargo that was put in place by the US following its humiliating defeat in 1975. In classifying Vietnam a 'Category Z' country, Washington imposed sanctions more isolating than even those against Cuba. The World Bank was warned off and humanitarian aid was stopped or obstructed; the new British prime minister, Margaret Thatcher, persuaded the EU to halt shipments of milk to Vietnamese children. The American objective was to continue the war by other means.
In 1986, besieged by shortages and a war-devastated economy, the top three leaders in Hanoi resigned, handing over to those, notably Nguyen Van Linh, who saw ?the market? as the means of lifting the siege. Companies such as Nike were offered tax holidays and cheap labour in 'economic processing zones'- vast sweatshops. In 1995, the then chancellor of the exchequer, Kenneth Clarke, visited Hanoi with a group of British businessmen who had been given a briefing document by the Department of Trade and Industry. "Labour rates are as low as $35 a month," it said. "Take the long view, use Vietnam's weaknesses selfishly. Vietnam's open door invites you to take advantage of its low standard of living and low wages."
The World Bank now offered loans conditional on the sacking of tens of thousands of workers from public enterprises and the scrapping of public services that were once the envy of other poor countries. Even during the long years of war, primary care where people lived and worked had raised life expectancy to among the highest in the developing world. More babies had survived birth and their first precarious years than in most Asian countries. Now, under the tutelage of the foreign donor community, the government was forced to abandon support for health services; diseases, such as malaria, dengue and cholera, returned. It was as if the Vietnamese were finally being granted membership of the international community as long as they created a society based on divisions of wealth and poverty and exploited labour, in which social achievements were no longer valued: the kind of foreign-imposed system they had sacrificed so much to escape. It seemed, wrote Gabriel Kolko in his classic work, Anatomy of a War, that the Vietnam war would finally end in "the defeat of all who fought in it - and one of the greatest tragedies of modern history".
However, by 1994, the resistance was growing and alarming the government. Although unreported in the controlled press, strikes swept across Saigon and were widely supported. In 1997, Nike, which employs 35,000 mostly female workers, was hit by rolling strikes. The police did nothing, a clear sign of the authorities' concern. In the countryside, the privatisation of land brought administrative chaos and popular anger. Government offices were sacked and officials forced to flee for their lives. One of the biggest single foreign investors in Vietnam, Daewoo, sent its chairman to express the company's alarm. Nguyen Van Linh, the architect of Doi Moi, began to have second thoughts, and market reforms were curtailed, which helps to explain why Vietnam escaped the Asian economic collapse in 1998.
Had the BBC's diplomatic correspondent read a little history, he might have said that what Vietnam needed was not economic growth, but justice. The catastrophe wreaked by the American invasion might have been eased had the United States honoured a 1973 agreement that Henry Kissinger, the then secretary of state, said would bring "peace with honour". He was referring to a cornerstone of the ceasefire agreement, a promise by the then president, Richard Nixon, of $3.25bn in reparations. Not a cent was paid.
The Americans have spent millions of dollars on the highly politicised exercise of looking for bone fragments of downed American pilots. Not a cent has gone to remove 3.5 million landmines, or to compensate the victims of Agent Orange. This defoliant was an American weapon of mass destruction containing the carcinogenic dioxin. In 1970, a Senate report estimated that "the US had dumped [on southern Vietnam] a quantity of toxic chemical amounting to six pounds per head of population". Had Clinton visited the giant Tu Du Hospital, he would have grimaced at the rows of malformed newborn babies. Along with many of their colleagues in the west, the doctors here are in no doubt that Dioxin is the cause. The truth is that Vietnam's battles will not be over until the enduring debt they are owed by an invader is paid in full.

http://johnpilger.com/articles/the-price-of-vietnam-being-allowed-to-come-out-of-isolation-was-the-destruction-of-its-health-services

An obvious place to look for inspiration is the recent history of the host country. In my lifetime Korea has lived through one of the greatest development miracles – half a century ago, its annual per capita income was around £50, less than half that of Ghana at the time. Today, it stands at £12,000, putting it on a par with Portugal and Slovenia. How was this possible?

Korea of course did things that most people agree are important for economic development, such as investment in infrastructure, health and education. But on top of that, it also practised many policies that are now supposed to be bad for economic development: extensive use of selective industrial policy, combining protectionism with export subsidies; tough regulations on foreign direct investment; active, if not particularly extensive, use of state-owned enterprises; lax protection of patents and other intellectual property rights; heavy regulation of both domestic and international finance.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2010/nov/09/time-to-reject-washington-seoul-g20

 

[EastSea]

do you think I call your Viets slave mentality for fun, I did not highlight anything to say TPP is good, I was not talking about trade but 'free trade' and loose foreign capital flow will destroy your Viets, do your Viets know what is neo-colonialism? there is no such thing as territorial conquest in the modern world, they enslave you by opening up the developing country through economic liberalisation use IMF, World Bank and FTAs to make your idiot Viets rely everything from outsiders, are your Viets with slave mentality don't want VN to produce it's own goods and services under your own names but forever rely on outsiders

as I said Singapore is a sick country begging foreign elite to come live in the country like Jim Rogers and the Facebook guy, of course there will be many Sarong Party girl for the Saverin to pleasure himself with LOL! sick country is Singapore
if you love VN why you are living in Germany?


complete


I think you should present your theory but most likely it will be all lies


let me show your Viets how I am not the Chinese, very rarely I go outside to even look the threads that does not involve something with VN but when I do did you ever see me post anything to praise the Chinese, for example look this thread, just on 1st page 5 Pakistan like the running dog of Chinese desperate to claim relation with Chinese and kow tow to Sino master, it is a joke, never once did I care anything of Chinese unless it relate to VN
http://www.defence.pk/forums/china-far-east/280855-defence-pk-celebrates-chinese-national-day.html

hahaha I thought you are the member EastSea but maybe not, can any of your Viets say why TPP is good except for reading the article that say VN is included? you Viets is desperate slave mentality must think the outsider country is like a hero will help VN, I did not think all Viets is dumb but I remember one of your Viets on the scholar girl's VR site said DPRK's per capita GDP is higher than VN, it should be basic common sense to know that is untrue but that Viet still believed it was true

To day is globalism time. You can't speak that who is master and who is slave in the world to day. problem is that people have to work hard and collect money.

Vietnam join to TPP is granted our advantages when we export goods made in Vietnam to USA and to Japan or to other countries in TPP, so import tax shall be deemed as Zero in condition that materials are original from countries in TPP.

 

[AViet]

HCM CITY (VNS) — Viet Nam has surpassed India in software exports to Japan to rank second behind China and is also among the top 10 software exporting nations, according to the IT industry business group.

Analysts attributed the industry's success to the strong growth of domestic software companies due to their constant effort to develop technologies.

FPT Telecom's Software Company typifies the trend, with exports of US$81 million last year, 30 per cent up from 2011.

In the first half of this year the company's turnover topped $47 million, a 32 per cent rise.

Outsourcing company KMS Technology said turnover increased from $4.51 million in 2011 to US$6.7 million in 2012 and estimated at US$9 million by the end of 2013.

CMC Software Company (CMCSoft) has started exporting to the US and Japan besides other potential markets like Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, Demark, South Korea, and Singapore.

Analysts said many domestic software companies are now able to provide a package of software services (comprising consulting, designing, and operating) using new technologies like mobile cloud computing.

TMA Solutions Company, for instance, expects cloud computing and mobile technologies to increase its turnover by 20 per cent.

CMC Soft plans to develop applications for IOS and Android – based smart phones.

Nguyen Thanh Lam, general director of FPT, said Viet Nam's software exports are growing due to low costs. Japanese consumers tended to switch to the ASEAN countries and Viet Nam is an attractive destination, he added.

Truong Gia Binh, chairman of the Viet Nam Software and IT Services Association, said after gaining experience software companies are now able to undertake highly technical tasks.

By using cloud computing and mobile technologies, FPT Software Company, TMA, and others have many opportunities to improve their image as well as business on the global market, he said. — VNS

Source: Viet Nam climbs IT software exports ladder - Economy - VietNam News

 

[Minjitta]

IT sector is very important to vn, with the youth, smart, and hard working will bring big income to vn in the near future. Glad to see success in IT department.

 

[Viet]

Five refinery and petrochemical projects will cost around $45 billion, bringing 1,420,000 barrels of refined oil products a day.

Vietnam to Start Building Second Refinery, a Move That Will Change Asian Oil Flows - WSJ.com



Vietnam to Start Building Second Refinery, a Move That Will Change Asian Oil Flows


By VU TRONG KHANH and SIMON HALL
Oct. 14, 2013 2:02 a.m. ET


HANOI—Construction will start at Vietnam's second oil refinery later this month, one of a string of new Vietnamese projects that will affect billions of dollars of energy investment decisions around Asia and redirect the flows of crude oil and refined products in the region.

Five Vietnamese refinery and petrochemical projects costing around $45 billion, if they all go ahead, would swing the country of 92 million people from being a big importer of refined products to a major exporter, obliging it to import huge volumes of crude, sharpening competition among Asian buyers to line up supplies of the hydrocarbon.

Before that supply crunch bites, governments and companies across Asia need to factor Vietnam's plans, and their impact on the oil trade, into final decisions on whether to continue with plans to build refining and upstream projects.

Malaysia's Petroliam Nasional Bhd., or Petronas, is expected to decide early next year whether to build a $20 billion refining complex in the south of the country. Also on the drawing board and awaiting green lights are several refineries Indonesia's PT Pertamina is considering, an export-focused Chinese-backed refinery in Brunei and an offshore oil-field project in Cambodia.

Vietnam's needs help underpin Asian gasoline and diesel prices due to its refined fuel imports, valued at $8.96 billion last year. That market will disappear in time, reducing sales opportunities even as production increases—J.P. Morgan says that between 2012 and 2014, 2.71 million barrels a day of additional Asian-Pacific refinery capacity will come online, exceeding by far closures in Japan and Australia.

Vietnam Oil & Gas Group, or Petrovietnam, and its Japanese and Kuwaiti partners, are to break ground for their $9 billion, 200,000-barrel-a-day Nghi Son refinery, 180 kilometers south of Hanoi on Oct. 23.

If all goes to plan, it will be operational in 2017, and its output—much of which will be sold to Petrovietnam at market prices—will take Vietnam a big step closer to becoming self-sufficient in products including gasoline and diesel.

For now, Vietnam gets about a third of the refined products it needs from its 130,000-barrel-a-day Dung Quat refinery and imports the rest. Owner Petrovietnam hopes to upgrade its first refinery's capacity to 200,000 barrels a day by 2018, possibly with Russian help.

OAO Gazprom Neft, the oil arm of gas giant OAO Gazprom, says it may join the upgrading project, deepening Russia's already substantial role in Vietnam's energy sector. Gazprom is producing natural gas off southeastern Vietnam.

A third refinery that has been on the drawing board for years is making progress, although a final decision hasn't been made. In the latest development, Vung Ro Petroleum Ltd. on Oct. 6 awarded a design contract to Japan's JGC Corp. for a 160,000-barrel-a-day refinery to be built by 2017 in the central province of Phu Yen.

BP PLC and Morgan Stanley Commodities will be the main suppliers of crude oil to the refinery, Vung Ro Petroleum Deputy Director-General Oleg Ishchenko said in an emailed statement.

The combined output of the three refineries would exceed domestic demand by a wide margin. Further out are two more projects, which if completed would put Vietnam in the ranks of major oil-product exporters like South Korea and Singapore.

Thailand's oil and gas conglomerate PTT PLC hopes to complete a feasibility study in May for a 660,000-barrel-a-day refinery and petrochemical center in central Vietnam, which could cost up to $27 billion. Petrovietnam is also looking for partners for a 200,000-barrel-a-day refinery in Long Son, southern Vietnam, which it wants to complete by 2020.

If most of the planned projects get the green light, huge amounts of crude oil will be needed, far exceeding Vietnam's domestic output, which the International Energy Agency says will peak at 406,000 barrels a day in 2020 and slide downhill after that.

Vietnam exported about 185,000 barrels a day of crude last year, but before long it may be scrambling to secure oil supplies. Asia, already heavily dependent on shipments from overseas, will see net imports of crude and refined products soar to 25.7 million barrels a day in 2035, from 15.5 million barrels a day in 2010, presenting major challenges to buyers of refining feedstock, according to the Asian Development Bank in a new study.

Nghi Son shouldn't have problems in getting crude, though, as Kuwait Petroleum International, which owns just over one-third of the refinery, will supply it with oil.

Write to Vu Trong Khanh at trong-khanh.vu@wsj.com and Simon Hall at simon.hall@wsj.com

 

[Minjitta]

Five refinery and petrochemical projects will cost around $45 billion, bringing 1,420,000 barrels of refined oil products a day.

Vietnam to Start Building Second Refinery, a Move That Will Change Asian Oil Flows - WSJ.com



Vietnam to Start Building Second Refinery, a Move That Will Change Asian Oil Flows


By VU TRONG KHANH and SIMON HALL
Oct. 14, 2013 2:02 a.m. ET


HANOI—Construction will start at Vietnam's second oil refinery later this month, one of a string of new Vietnamese projects that will affect billions of dollars of energy investment decisions around Asia and redirect the flows of crude oil and refined products in the region.

Five Vietnamese refinery and petrochemical projects costing around $45 billion, if they all go ahead, would swing the country of 92 million people from being a big importer of refined products to a major exporter, obliging it to import huge volumes of crude, sharpening competition among Asian buyers to line up supplies of the hydrocarbon.

Before that supply crunch bites, governments and companies across Asia need to factor Vietnam's plans, and their impact on the oil trade, into final decisions on whether to continue with plans to build refining and upstream projects.

Malaysia's Petroliam Nasional Bhd., or Petronas, is expected to decide early next year whether to build a $20 billion refining complex in the south of the country. Also on the drawing board and awaiting green lights are several refineries Indonesia's PT Pertamina is considering, an export-focused Chinese-backed refinery in Brunei and an offshore oil-field project in Cambodia.

Vietnam's needs help underpin Asian gasoline and diesel prices due to its refined fuel imports, valued at $8.96 billion last year. That market will disappear in time, reducing sales opportunities even as production increases—J.P. Morgan says that between 2012 and 2014, 2.71 million barrels a day of additional Asian-Pacific refinery capacity will come online, exceeding by far closures in Japan and Australia.

Vietnam Oil & Gas Group, or Petrovietnam, and its Japanese and Kuwaiti partners, are to break ground for their $9 billion, 200,000-barrel-a-day Nghi Son refinery, 180 kilometers south of Hanoi on Oct. 23.

If all goes to plan, it will be operational in 2017, and its output—much of which will be sold to Petrovietnam at market prices—will take Vietnam a big step closer to becoming self-sufficient in products including gasoline and diesel.

For now, Vietnam gets about a third of the refined products it needs from its 130,000-barrel-a-day Dung Quat refinery and imports the rest. Owner Petrovietnam hopes to upgrade its first refinery's capacity to 200,000 barrels a day by 2018, possibly with Russian help.

OAO Gazprom Neft, the oil arm of gas giant OAO Gazprom, says it may join the upgrading project, deepening Russia's already substantial role in Vietnam's energy sector. Gazprom is producing natural gas off southeastern Vietnam.

A third refinery that has been on the drawing board for years is making progress, although a final decision hasn't been made. In the latest development, Vung Ro Petroleum Ltd. on Oct. 6 awarded a design contract to Japan's JGC Corp. for a 160,000-barrel-a-day refinery to be built by 2017 in the central province of Phu Yen.

BP PLC and Morgan Stanley Commodities will be the main suppliers of crude oil to the refinery, Vung Ro Petroleum Deputy Director-General Oleg Ishchenko said in an emailed statement.

The combined output of the three refineries would exceed domestic demand by a wide margin. Further out are two more projects, which if completed would put Vietnam in the ranks of major oil-product exporters like South Korea and Singapore.

Thailand's oil and gas conglomerate PTT PLC hopes to complete a feasibility study in May for a 660,000-barrel-a-day refinery and petrochemical center in central Vietnam, which could cost up to $27 billion. Petrovietnam is also looking for partners for a 200,000-barrel-a-day refinery in Long Son, southern Vietnam, which it wants to complete by 2020.

If most of the planned projects get the green light, huge amounts of crude oil will be needed, far exceeding Vietnam's domestic output, which the International Energy Agency says will peak at 406,000 barrels a day in 2020 and slide downhill after that.

Vietnam exported about 185,000 barrels a day of crude last year, but before long it may be scrambling to secure oil supplies. Asia, already heavily dependent on shipments from overseas, will see net imports of crude and refined products soar to 25.7 million barrels a day in 2035, from 15.5 million barrels a day in 2010, presenting major challenges to buyers of refining feedstock, according to the Asian Development Bank in a new study.

Nghi Son shouldn't have problems in getting crude, though, as Kuwait Petroleum International, which owns just over one-third of the refinery, will supply it with oil.

Write to Vu Trong Khanh at trong-khanh.vu@wsj.com and Simon Hall at simon.hall@wsj.com

Would this be over built?

 

[Viet]

Would this be over built?

not if we can find overseas customers for. Our domestic consumption is just 400,000 barrels a day.

 

[Minjitta]

not if we can find overseas customers for. Our domestic consumption is just 400,000 barrels a day.

That's a BIG IF, not a good plan if we depend on IF.