Usual but Necessary

[BDforever]

So My Prediction is now coming into reality

 

[Not Sure]

Solutions may or may not be found, but that conclusion is one we may arrive at only after we exhaust such trialogues - an immediate CBM I can think of is the cut off in using proxies in Indian Kashmir and Afghan/Balouchistan theatre - to be followed by a clear understanding for transit of Indian goods through Pakistan and Afghanistan. ALL of this must be predicated on the understanding that there is not only the will but that where lacking, it will be "created" to conclude an agreements that will remove from the agenda area which include the risk of war and nuclear war at that.

Indian friends think that these are the best times for the Indian economy, and perhaps they are not used to better, but the Indian economy can be much, much much bigger than at present, this that going to be possible with border disputes with it's nuclear armed neighbors? Possibly yes, some will argue that US and USSR managed it, but then they did not have border disputes and were not immediate neighbors - I think the case for the need for such trilateral discussions is obvious, but it has not made it to the public consciousness.

What a lot of 'Indian friends' here think, is driven by reactionary nationalism and can be achieved without thinking. Few realize that there is still a long way for Indian (or for that matter Pakistani) economy and infrastructure to get saturated like those of European and North American countries, leaving a great scope for further progress. Even fewer understand that the greatest asset is the human resource that India has plenty of and is unable to manage, leave alone make good use of. I am not sure how long this country will take to make the commercial activities more fluid (or at least fluid!), so cannot talk much about that - I would if I were in a position of power and had personal interests in it.

But, we can sure talk about the utility of the CBMs that you pointed out. The CBM w.r.t Kashmir that you mentioned was experimented with in Musharraf's times. But then 26/11 happened. Apparently, that CBM is unachievable by the state. Besides, from what I see, the Indians are getting more and more hawkish/arrogant by each passing day and it reflects their reluctance at achieving the goals of this round table conference. I mean, Kashmir may be an 'integral part of India', but still the mainstream mass does not seem even a bit perturbed by the presence of the Army there.

However, because Indians very much want trade routes through to Afghanistan/CA, your second point makes a lot of sense and holds great significance. Indians may show all the arrogance they want against their Pakistani counterparts (as had been mentioned by someone in Pakistan on a TV channel a few days back), the fact that India relies greatly on its relations with other nations will make sure that Indians do take this gesture of Pakistan as a great step forward - a significant CBM. On the negative side - that step on part of Pakistan will be fraught with numerous risks involved. We already saw that even when the anti-US sentiments were not so high and that country was given a free hand on transit route through Karachi to Peshawar, it was so full of controversies and incidents that were carried out by actors that remained out of the control of the state. I think this transit route on Pakistan's part would be a very risky piece of CBM, and might even become counter productive.

Apart from that, there is another CBM where Pakistan is lagging far behind, and it is about the MFN status to India. I personally think that this MFN status, whenever it comes into effect, will increase the the trade to such degree that all the monies between the two nations would become a cohesive bond and will keep both the nations from taking any aggressive posture that could harm the trade. After all, a truck with goods bound to Turkmenistan, whether it explodes in India or in Pakistan, will be a loss of similar significance to the people on both sides. No one would want that - (even though) this step, in short run will be harmful to Pakistani traders, and in long run to the Army's interests, we are bound to see some stiff resistance - well, we are already seeing it. Finally, this is a CBM that is not the responsibility of just one to appear as a favor to another nation, it, in fact, goes equally both ways.

Also, both the points you mentioned are the CBMs on Pakistan's part. Expanding it further, let us see what India can do to strengthen the C in the CBM.

1. With the nuclear threshold already going low, India could relieve some chunk of the Army on the western border - at least while the Pakistani Army is so busy uprooting the terrorism threat on its western belt. This reduction may result in a slight increase in infiltration of terrorists into India, but nothing that the Army cannot take care of - or at least it is supposed to. And it would be foolhardy to think that in its current economic condition and diplomatic isolation Pakistan might launch another Kargil.

2. India has a lot of capital at its disposal, and if the trade route to Afghanistan (as pointed out by you) materializes, it should invest in the infrastructure (Roads/Rails) in Pakistan - specifically the one that will help Indian goods get across the Pakistani soil. That would be a gesture that won't go unseen by anyone, and won't be more than a harmless pinch to Indian coffers.

Finally, there can also be a triangular CBM that all the three nations can indulge in together and have their capital and interests dependent on each other - by collective investment in Gwadar port. That would be a great step forward, since Wagah route can be made exclusive to non-goods commercial/personal travel thereby streamlining the traffic making it more organized and easier to manage. And at the same time, Gwadar can be utilized to deport the goods that can travel from Karachi to Peshawar and then further north. This way India's worries about the Chinese presence in Gwadar will decline, and because of the shared content, any of the navies - Chinese/Indian/Pakistani can be employed to take care of the shipping routes up to Gwadar from the nearby gulf and the ocean.


There is also a personal point I would like to make here, that will be of great benefit to India, but can also be utilized as a CBM on part of India - by offering exclusive scholarships and subsidies to Pakistani youth desirous of studying in India. Education is cheap (a little bit quality wise too, but mainly financially speaking) here, and so is the travel. Coming from Pakistan, the students won't even have to board a plane, leave alone buying a big ticket.

This step will greatly increase people to people contact, especially among the youth that are so revered in both the countries as the driving forces of the future.

Although, just to keep the Confidence in the CBM intact, in this scenario, Kashmir will have to be kept off limits.




In this post I have mainly focused on the CBMs between India and Pakistan because of my strong belief that chances of a nuclear war, or even a war, between China and India are very bleak. We see so much war mongering between Pakistan and India, but here too I see a great future of Pakistan for the simple fact that the youth there (as I see on TV - limited experience) appears very keen to learn even from the Indians. There is somewhat a positive surprise that I notice among them, but at the same time, they also want to emulate everything that they feel will affect their own country positively. That's a display of laudable maturity!

Thus I feel that the CBM involving the youth, esp in higher studies, will go a long way.

 

[IND151]

i must point out..china is doing really well trying to balance its economy and strategic policies..its using use currency to devaluate its currency.and at the same time trying to point out that its rise would not be a favorable one for u.s and obviously u.s doesnt want its position taken by somebody else..ofcourse with the most formidable defence forces in the world u.s is still going to assert its influence for some time to come..but with the slowing growth rate and increasing debts its highly unlikely for it to maintain its superiority.european nations are already in a declining path.

china and india have more in common than differences..the serious problems between them might be boader diputes and ofcourse pakistan..but as the relations between india and pakistan gets better relations between china and india gets better..china and india voted together against u.s number of times on the world stage.but india is going to play safe till its economical goals are reached..its not going to choose sides yet not atleast permanently and not definitely with u.s india is aware of u.s's foreign policy.india has an independent foreign policy which is not the case with other u.s allies.. mean while india builds her defences wary of the political implications of this big game.i'd like to mention also about russia which has similar goals to these 2 countries.for now india has 3 challenges developmental challenges which are being attended at a high pace as we speak.economic growth and its geopolitics...

pakistan is in a transformation to either towards growth or towards abbys..its new govt would decide.it has greater challanges at home compared to abroad.it got a taste of the friendship from u.s and a responsible leader coming next would maintain an independent foreign policy.a strong democracy in pakistan is good for india.india will have trouble when ever pakistan is unstable.and its army have taken the issue of terrorism seriously..i'm hopeful they would have considerable success with in 5 years if their labour is continued...relations with india improves unless some other attack happens..

so why not i'm sure things would be much better in asia with in a decade from now..

agreed

we need a decade of good economic growth with average GDP growth rate above 7%, we are also undertaking modernization of our armed forces and boosting our Missile Arsenal

We still have to face to the challenge of boosting our infrastructure by building several new roads(golden quadrilateral is nearly completed, but we may need many such projects, though smaller on scale i.e a road linking Odisha to Gujarat is necessary),ports and probably a separate rail corridor for cargo rails, new airports, bridges and maintaining existing infra; we will need to do this to boost our GDP growth rate and maintain it above 6.5%

Problems like Naxal Insurgency and Insurgency in J&K need to be tackled.

All this will demand time of 10-15 years and till then good relations with US and EU will be must

So for next 15 years at least India will play safe and will not test 12,000 KM Surya, in my opinion

BTW excellent thread,OP

 

[IND151]

There is a very very simple reason for that.

India does not ever expect that there would be a war with China.
Even if India and China want to, the scope of war is very limited. The Himalayas form an impenetrable boundary for most of the border between India and China. At best there would be skirmishes in 3 areas identified as Western Sector, Central Sector and Eastern Sector.

And out of the three, only the Eastern Sector - Arunachal Pradesh has enough scope for a conflict of scale.

That apart, China and both India are responsible powers, both realize that a war would only benefit third parties without the commiserate returns for either of them. Both are large nations with considerable resources at their disposal. And both realize that the only thing a nation has to focus on is economic growth - that is where true might lies.

Now contrast this with Pakistan, an unstable country with regular military coups. A military that is accountable to no one but itself and one that needs to reaffirm its relevance and superiority to its own citizens with regularity to maintain the power that it does. A nation that feels incomplete as long as they dont have Kashmir. A country which has no control over its terrorist organizations it formed itself. And finally a country where the Prime Minister calls for peace and bus travels while its own military is executing a war strategy!

You tell me which of the two countries between Pakistan and China are likely to execute a move which would lead to war and you will have your answer.

---
That said - I repeat from my last post - all existing force structures for our western borders will remain as they are. The NEW forces which are being acquired would be dedicated to the Northern Borders.

India does not forsee China taking recourse to military actions to settle the border disputes in the future and thus there is no need to move existing forces from West to the North. That would only be done in an emergency.

That's what I have said may times

Our aim is maintaining superiority on western border and being enough strong on eastern border

Though, now, our power projection capability is increasing on eastern border too

 

[neehar]

agreed

we need a decade of good economic growth with average GDP growth rate above 7%, we are also undertaking modernization of our armed forces and boosting our Missile Arsenal

We still have to face to the challenge of boosting our infrastructure by building several new roads(golden quadrilateral is nearly completed, but we may need many such projects, though smaller on scale i.e a road linking Odisha to Gujarat is necessary),ports and probably a separate rail corridor for cargo rails, new airports, bridges and maintaining existing infra; we will need to do this to boost our GDP growth rate and maintain it above 6.5%

Problems like Naxal Insurgency and Insurgency in J&K need to be tackled.

All this will demand time of 10-15 years and till then good relations with US and EU will be must

So for next 15 years at least India will play safe and will not test 12,000 KM Surya, in my opinion

BTW excellent thread,OP

yes 12th year plan is all about infrastrucutre.they are planning to invest over $1 trillion in infra alone..and insurgencies are decreasing with time.i'm sure naxalism would be removed in less than a decade.they're already weak.projects like mumbai delhi corrodor,banglore chennai corridor.connecting ports with rail cargos will increase the efficiency in our production.i'm confident that we'll become third largest economy in ppp by 2017 and 5th largest in terms of exchange rate if we play our cards well

 

[neehar]

If Issues become "bilateral" by assertion then they can become "Trilateral" by assertion as well -- Indian friends should examine how well this "bilateral" stuff has served the Israeli --- Anyways certainly if a "trilateral" venue is deemed inappropriate for certain issues, another venue should be just fine - not just terrorism but also Kashmir is a trilateral issue, as is water, as are nuclear weapons, market access and tariffs, rules and regulations for commercial activity by companies based in these three, banks (financial services), there is just so much work

what u said is right but we do see a pattern in the relations between india and pakistan dont we.when ever these countries try to get close some issue is created between both just because of terrorism.as a result things are geeting worse again.kashmir may not be an immediate concern now but terrorism is.if both countries come close to negotiations its only possible after eliminating terrorism.also if there are no attacks in india then the india can afford to compromise in some cricial issues like water which would help both the countries..if not then our govt cannot go against the public..its all the public mood u see..either in pakistan or india..as far as china is concerned im sure relations between india and china could get better once relations between india pak gets better

 

[muse]

what u said is right but we do see a pattern in the relations between india and pakistan dont we.when ever these countries try to get close some issue is created between both just because of terrorism.as a result things are geeting worse again.kashmir may not be an immediate concern now but terrorism is.if both countries come close to negotiations its only possible after eliminating terrorism.also if there are no attacks in india then the india can afford to compromise in some cricial issues like water which would help both the countries..if not then our govt cannot go against the public..its all the public mood u see..either in pakistan or india..as far as china is concerned im sure relations between india and china could get better once relations between india pak gets better

Yes, obviously there is a constituency that will fight tooth and nail to ensure that Pakistani and Indian public continue to see each other in net negative terms, if you think about it these attitudes are comics, in the sense that they are not just silly and immature but have zero real investment of the kinds we think of when we consider the potential of these relationships, at least it seems to me. Also as I read the concerns about terrorism in India, I am struck that Indian posters seem to not understand 49,000 Pakistani deaths directly related to terrorism - I do hope Indian posters who are thinking about this issue will be sensitive to this issue not just for them but for Pakistanis.

 

[neehar]

Yes, obviously there is a constituency that will fight tooth and nail to ensure that Pakistani and Indian public continue to see each other in net negative terms, if you think about it these attitudes are comics, in the sense that they are not just silly and immature but have zero real investment of the kinds we think of when we consider the potential of these relationships, at least it seems to me. Also as I read the concerns about terrorism in India, I am struck that Indian posters seem to not understand 49,000 Pakistani deaths directly related to terrorism - I do hope Indian posters who are thinking about this issue will be sensitive to this issue not just for them but for Pakistanis.

yes terrorism is terrorism nomatter what form is it in its the civilians who take the toll.and it needs to be condemned irrespective of country or religion.and i dnot see any different in this forum.when ever there is a thread opened regarding the attacks on civilians in pakistan indians equally condemn it not just pakistanies .and that must be the response of any sane person.my reply was purely intended with respect to the bilateral relations.its not that i care any less regarding the victims in pakistan to my fellow men.infact i was a direct witness of recent hyderabad blasts.so i know the pain

 

[kurup]

India, Pakistan and Bangladesh should just reunify. The whole south Asia will prosper, if we are strict with politicians.

A reunification ...seriously .

Who in their right mind will want to reunify with pakistan ??

 

[illusion8]

India and China seem to have hit the right track eventually - another year and we will possibly see a more positive relationship there. While a lot was happening between India and Pakistan last year - it has been effectively derailed presently - which is always the case - a terrorist attack and all the bilateral meets and talks get thrown out the window.

 

[Dillinger]

Yes, obviously there is a constituency that will fight tooth and nail to ensure that Pakistani and Indian public continue to see each other in net negative terms, if you think about it these attitudes are comics, in the sense that they are not just silly and immature but have zero real investment of the kinds we think of when we consider the potential of these relationships, at least it seems to me. Also as I read the concerns about terrorism in India, I am struck that Indian posters seem to not understand 49,000 Pakistani deaths directly related to terrorism - I do hope Indian posters who are thinking about this issue will be sensitive to this issue not just for them but for Pakistanis.

While there is indeed an active constituency which views hostility between the two nations as profitable or desirable the general populace of India does not condone any terrorist attacks within Pakistan's territory. Having said that, the narrative in India though, and a well supported and probably accurate one, is that while the said terrorism is heinous- It exists, was created, and got this strong due to Pakistan's own policy of training and hosting proxies within its territory.

No sovereign nation has ever allowed a large chunk of its territory to be self administered according to "tribal customs" (Pushtunwali) and followed a state sanctioned policy of inviting insurgents from all over central Asia and providing them training. Yet Pakistan has done just that, this fact coupled with the aforementioned narrative ensures that the Indian nation will not condone such attacks but it will also not take a lenient approach towards Pakistan when Pakistani funded and trained militants train their guns against us either.

The sine qua non of any normalization in relations is the absolute and VERIFIED dismantling of the terror network that thrives within Pakistan- not empty promises, or excuses that we too face terrorists. If the Pakistani establishment continues to support these elements then it must cease and desist, if it doesn't support them but cannot control them then it had best control them now. If these basic things cannot be complied with then it should not surprise Pakistan, its people, and its posters here on PDF that India too will resort to and probably might have resorted to aiding proxies in Pakistan too. If Pakistan is still aiming at a conflict which it thinks it will win through attrition then it will have to face attrition itself, and sadly it has proven itself less capable than its eastern neighbor in mitigating said attrition.

 

[muse]

Thank you - so there is terrorism and Indian public consciousness is persuaded that it was created by Pakistan, and Pakistan must control it and Pakistan must destroyed it and win back areas ceded to terrorists -- Yes certainly

 

[Dillinger]

Thank you - so there is terrorism and Indian public consciousness is persuaded that it was created by Pakistan, and Pakistan must control it and Pakistan must destroyed it and win back areas ceded to terrorists -- Yes certainly

Yaara tell me who created it, the US? They certainly funded the Afghan mujaheddin, but that was not the beginning of proxy warfare in the subcontinent it was just the turning point which strengthened these elements to a hitherto unbelievable level. In our(between our two nations) long history of conflicts where does the use of proxies for furthering state policies begin from? Its history and you and I can agree that history should not corrupt the future yet can either of us deny that usually a nation's narrative is built across decades and thus draws heavily upon history.

I do not know whether the leaders across the border have realized this or not but India has become far more hawkish than it was int he 80s and 90s, this hardening of our stance is only going to continue. As long as there is no unilateral and successful effort by Pakistan to end the cross LOC insurgency and the broader terrorist attacks on Indian cities the GOI will not see a favorable cost-benefit scenario in accommodating anything that Pakistan needs or wants.

 

[Dillinger]

So My Prediction is now coming into reality

Ki prediction babumoshai, tumio ki Greater India-r bhag bonte chao? Amra tomader jonne mishti doi ar roshogulla niye wait kor bo.

 

[curioususer]

A reunification ...seriously .

Who in their right mind will want to reunify with pakistan ??

Lot of people in their right mind on all sides of border want reunification.