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Okay, that was embarrassing, but this is even worse, at a meeting with sheriffs, Pres. Trump repeated a false (nothing new there though) statistic about the US murder rate and then had the cheek to criticize the press, sad.

He said, “the murder rate in our country is the highest it's been in 47 years, right? Did you know that? Forty-seven years. I used to use that — I'd say that in a speech and everybody was surprised, because the press doesn't tell it like it is. It wasn't to their advantage to say that. But the murder rate is the highest it's been in, I guess, from 45 to 47 years.”

In fact, according to the FBI, the murder rate is currently at less than half its peak.

homicide_51yr.jpg


 
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Okay, that was embarrassing, but this is even worse, at a meeting with sheriffs, Pres. Trump repeated a false (nothing new there though) statistic about the US murder rate and then had the cheek to criticize the press, sad.

He said, “the murder rate in our country is the highest it's been in 47 years, right? Did you know that? Forty-seven years. I used to use that — I'd say that in a speech and everybody was surprised, because the press doesn't tell it like it is. It wasn't to their advantage to say that. But the murder rate is the highest it's been in, I guess, from 45 to 47 years.”

In fact, according to the FBI, the murder rate is currently at less than half its peak.

View attachment 376333


The current murder rate is still way too high, so he is not wrong when he says 47 years was roughly the last time the rate was this high:

https://www.ucrdatatool.gov/Search/Crime/State/RunCrimeStatebyState.cfm

He didn't even account for the population being lower back then (so honestly the real number of years would be even more to have the same rate). Not to mention it gets even worse when we are talking about violent crimes in total.

Now the part that he said was technically wrong was of course: But the murder rate is the highest it's been in, I guess, from 45 to 47 years.”

But he did say "I guess" (and "guessed" wrong). Obama and almost every president have said far worse (I did not have sexual relations with that woman!) and promised far worse (if you like your plan, you can keep it!)....and they didn't qualify it with anything like "I guess".

Trump on the other hand is going all out to get the inner cities to get behind him, or at least continue to diminish their support to the democrats....so of course he is going to engage in some showmanship. He wants to secure the rust belt fully, push in the message that bad trade deals, illegal immigrants and violent crime (be it murder or anything else) does not need to be the accepted default....so he is going to be bending the facts to get the broader message through.

So you are going to compare that with Pelosi and what that other lady said? Sorry in Trump's case its crafty populism (and it worked big league as you saw in Nov 8th against ALL the polls you spent so much time putting up each day). In Pelosi and other lady's case....its just senility....and its indicative of the democrat party problem that they actually in their infinite wisdom elected this lady yet again as their house leader. So like I said....WTF?
 
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The current murder rate is still way too high, so he is not wrong when he says 47 years was roughly the last time the rate was this high:

https://www.ucrdatatool.gov/Search/Crime/State/RunCrimeStatebyState.cfm

He didn't even account for the population being lower back then (so honestly the real number of years would be even more to have the same rate). Not to mention it gets even worse when we are talking about violent crimes in total.

Now the part that he said was technically wrong was of course: But the murder rate is the highest it's been in, I guess, from 45 to 47 years.”


He was wrong. As someone who spent his entire life in New York City, he of all people should know that the murder rate is much lower than it was in the 1970s, 1980s, and early 1990s.

But he did say "I guess" (and "guessed" wrong).


A President shouldn't be "guessing" when it comes to things like this. If he was unsure, he could have simply asked his advisors before speaking. It is a very clear statistic that can be checked immediately. He was on camera here and making a public statement. This was not an off-hand remark that he made in a private conversation that later became public. And this was not a case of the President making a prediction about one of his policies that didn't pan out quite as expected. What he said was wrong.

Trump on the other hand is going all out to get the inner cities to get behind him, or at least continue to diminish their support to the democrats....so of course he is going to engage in some showmanship.


Cities are never, ever going to get behind Trump. Urban denizens and their suburban counterparts (rich and poor alike) have been steadily moving away from the Republican Party. Trump exacerbated this problem in 2016. Many urban and suburban areas backed Clinton by a wider margin than they did Obama in 2012, even though she was far less popular.

His nativism, xenophobia, and personality are exactly what they find most distasteful about the present-day Republican Party. He became the first Republican to lose Orange County in 80 years. Hillary won by a 51%-42% margin, something not even Obama could do in either of his runs in 2008 or 2012, when he lost by 48-51% and 45%-53% margins, respectively. As long they keep nominating people like Trump, their problems will only get worse, not better.

He wants to secure the rust belt fully, push in the message that bad trade deals, illegal immigrants and violent crime (be it murder or anything else) does not need to be the accepted default....so he is going to be bending the facts to get the broader message through.


He has every right to push his message and campaign for his policies, but stating obvious falsehoods is never okay.

So you are going to compare that with Pelosi and what that other lady said? Sorry in Trump's case its crafty populism


Populism that isn't actually populism, unfortunately.

and its indicative of the democrat party problem that they actually in their infinite wisdom elected this lady yet again as their house leader. So like I said....WTF?


The Democratic Party. Are we going to have to do this every time? I don't mind, but I don't see why some conservatives are unable to say this.

I would rather they elected someone other than Pelosi, it's time for someone new. But she is still far better than Trump.


Democrats knew what they are doing (as desperate and ultimately counter-productive that it will be given Trump only gets aggravated more in response e.g. Mexico wall 10 feet higher attitude). Its the same policy they are employing in the senate to slow down confirmations and such.


Trump has put together one of the worst cabinets in recent memory. Mattis, Elaine Chao, and other noncontroversial nominees had no problem getting confirmed.
 
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Cities are never, ever going to get behind Trump. Urban denizens and their suburban counterparts (rich and poor alike) have been steadily moving away from the Republican Party. Trump exacerbated this problem in 2016. Many urban and suburban areas backed Clinton by a wider margin than they did Obama in 2012, even though she was far less popular.

His nativism, xenophobia, and personality are exactly what they find most distasteful about the present-day Republican Party. He became the first Republican to lose Orange County in 80 years. Hillary won by a 51%-42% margin, something not even Obama could do in either of his runs in 2008 or 2012, when he lost by 48-51% and 45%-53% margins, respectively. As long they keep nominating people like Trump, their problems will only get worse, not better.

Its funny you always bring up california and other voter fraud + illegal affected areas.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/illegal-immigrant-charged-voter-fraud-132216684.html

Its fine, give it some time for it to get sorted out so a nov 8th like reality comes smashing through down the road. It's one of those topics you cant convince me and I can't convince you on it, so best to let the actual events transpire.

I certainly had my own on the ground analysis of the rust belt (including cities) when I was there last time....that stood in stark contrast to what the polls put out....and the result spoke for itself. I thus am not amenable to believing any statistics put out by the same groups ever again....especially those with political topics.

California itself may now always remain solid blue (given the Reagan amnesty) overall, but I'm talking about the new swing states further east. If trump can consolidate in the inner cities there (by delivering what was promised as far as economy and security goes)...its game over for the democrats.

I'm not talking about existing popularity levels, I'm talking trends (compared to 2012) and the fact there is a good opportunity for Trump to deliver here past what people immediately perceive of the chap. That is what they will judge him on in large part in 2018 and 2020. Its also why the polls were so very wrong about Trump in the swing states. Unfortunately for the dems, 2018 sees the majority of their seats coming up for re-election...so anti-incumbency is going to be pretty cruel even without the Trump factor (though I guess many will argue Trump would have resolutely failed/exposed or whatever by then....the glass of milk paradox etc).

Rest of your post, we'll have to agree to disagree as usual.

As for Pelosi being "better" than Trump....yeah another one I'd have to disagree with:


Looking a victim straight in the eyes and lieing like that ...that "in sanctuary cities, our people are not disobeying the law" and that they are "law abiding citizens" @Desert Fox you should see this.

Again its really ok, she gets to see her edifice collapse even more around her now...I really don't care what happens to the Democrat party now. They deserve it all and more. Hopefully their sane components can pull away from the direction their elite is taking them and fracture to become stronger if they need to. But lets wait and see.

Pelosi said Obamacare has to be passed before people know whats in it. Well the people have spoken as far as that goes, I still remember the big talk:

 
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Its funny you always bring up california and other voter fraud + illegal affected areas.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/illegal-immigrant-charged-voter-fraud-132216684.html


Oh my goodness, again with the virtually non-existent "voter fraud". I've discussed it with you before. You keep bringing up this laughable claim. People do not have the ability to impersonate millions of legitimate voters and get away with it. Trying to find out the necessary information to do so is almost impossible itself.

And if many people even tried to do so, it would become apparent immediately. Voter information on voting registration forms is cross-checked with federal data like Social Security numbers (it's required when you fill out a voter registration form here). The truth is the truth, you cannot run away from it.


"Voters acting on their own have no rational cause to vote fraudulently. The odds of casting a deciding vote are miniscule and cheaters risk criminal prosecution under state laws on the books for decades. The costs of fraudulent voting are steep and the benefits practically non-existent. Spurious, politically-motivated allegations of voter fraud are a distraction from the real problems in U.S. elections."




    • Replicating my methodology, 24 journalism students at twelve universities reviewed some 2,000 public records and identified just six cases of voter impersonation between 2000 and 2012.
    • Under Republican President George W. Bush, the U.S. Justice Department searched for voter fraud. But in the first three years of the program, just 26 people were convicted or pled guilty to illegal registration or voting. Out of 197,056,035 votes cast in the two federal elections held during that period, the rate of voter fraud was a miniscule 0.00000132 percent!
    • No state considering or passing restrictive voter identification laws has documented an actual problem with voter fraud. In litigation over the new voter identification laws in Wisconsin, Indiana, Georgia and Pennsylvania, election officials testified they have never seen cases of voter impersonation at the polls. Indiana and Pennsylvania stipulated in court that they had experienced zero instances of voter fraud.
    • When federal authorities challenged voter identification laws in South Carolina and Texas, neither state provided any evidence of voter impersonation or any other type of fraud that could be deterred by requiring voters to present photo identification at the polls."
http://www.scholarsstrategynetwork.org/brief/misleading-myth-voter-fraud-american-elections


Most illegal immigrants are so afraid of the government, that they won't even let themselves be interviewed by the census, even though they are assured that no harm will come to them. They avoid the police and other government institutions too. The idea that millions of them filled out voter registration forms and tried to vote (and somehow got away with it) is nothing short of hilarious. And in any case, there was no incentive for people to vote illegally in safe states anyway. Hillary Clinton was going to win California easily, and everyone knew that.

Its fine, give it some time for it to get sorted out so a nov 8th like reality comes smashing through down the road.


Some of us are very happy that Trump won on November 8th. The more you mention it, the more I smile. The unpopular Hillary Clinton is gone forever, but the unpopular Trump is still here, enacting many unpopular policies. We're in agreement that we like Trump is President. Please don't take my comments as a reaction to his election.

It's one of those topics you cant convince me and I can't convince you on it, so best to let the actual events transpire.


Well, I'm not trying to get you to change your positions on issues, or for you to abandon your support for Trump. I'm merely stating some facts. Urban areas have been steadily moving away from the Republican Party, while less-populated rural areas have been moving towards it. This is a fact. Please compare the election maps for the elections of the last 35 years.

California itself may now always remain solid blue (given the Reagan amnesty) overall, but I'm talking about the new swing states further east.


California has turned blue due to the changing voter patterns in the West Coast and the Northeast, along with legal immigration. Look at Washington and Oregon too. Areas in the South have become much more Republican, in contrast. If you lived out here, you would realize how liberal white voters in coastal California are (where the vast majority of the state lives), and how even independent and Republican Whites are pretty moderate as well. I know of many who voted for Clinton, personally (despite having voted for Romney and/or McCain).

but I'm talking about the new swing states further east. If trump can consolidate in the inner cities there (by delivering what was promised as far as economy and security goes)...its game over for the democrats.
I'm not talking about existing popularity levels, I'm talking trends (compared to 2012) and the fact there is a good opportunity for Trump to deliver here past what people immediately perceive of the chap.


Well, if you're talking about the urban areas in the Midwest (which has always been a swingy area in recent elections), then they too moved away from the Republicans in most areas (with a few exceptions). You can see it on the map. It was the rural areas in these states that moved strongly towards Trump, which resulted in very narrow victories in a few states that ultimately won him the Electoral College. Keep in mind that many Midwestern Democrats simply stayed home or voted third-party. This was the biggest reason he won, although there was a shift in support towards him.

Not to mention that these areas are diversifying and younger whites are much more Democratic than their older counterparts (see exit polls). The Republican voter base of rural whites, older generations, and non-college educated whites is steadily shrinking. College educated-whites, in contrast, shifted strongly towards Clinton, and their ranks are growing. These are facts.

That is what they will judge him on in large part in 2018 and 2020. Its also why the polls were so very wrong about Trump in the swing states.


Well the polls weren't exactly wrong. They measured people's preferences correctly. However, they incorrectly predicted turnout, and that's what doomed Hillary Clinton in those states.

Unfortunately for the dems, 2018 sees the majority of their seats coming up for re-election...so anti-incumbency is going to be pretty cruel even without the Trump factor (though I guess many will argue Trump would have resolutely failed/exposed or whatever by then....the glass of milk paradox etc).


Actually, that's very fortunate for the Democrats. Republicans are the incumbent Party now. The President's party almost always loses seats in midterm elections:

cjpbdt3akugs-cl0gg2asq.png



I don't think he's necessarily going to be a "failure" by 2018. I don't expect things to change too much between now and then. But if things simply stay the same, a President with an approval rating in the low 40s, will not do well in the midterm election.

Looking a victim straight in the eyes and lieing like that ...that "in sanctuary cities, our people are not disobeying the law" and that they are "law abiding citizens" @Desert Fox you should see this.

Again its really ok, she gets to see her edifice collapse even more around her now...I really don't care what happens to the Democrat party now. They deserve it all and more. Hopefully their sane components can pull away from the direction their elite is taking them and fracture to become stronger if they need to. But lets wait and see.

Pelosi said Obamacare has to be passed before people know whats in it. Well the people have spoken as far as that goes, I still remember the big talk:


Well, you can keep posting videos of Nancy Pelosi. I certainly don't mind. I don't really even like her.

But yes, I definitely prefer her to this:

 
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Oh my goodness, again with the virtually non-existent "voter fraud". I've discussed it with you before. You keep bringing up this laughable claim. People do not have the ability to impersonate millions of legitimate voters and get away with it. Trying to find out the necessary information to do so is almost impossible itself.

And if many people even tried to do so, it would become apparent immediately. Voter information on voting registration forms is cross-checked with federal data like Social Security numbers (it's required when you fill out a voter registration form here). The truth is the truth, you cannot run away from it.


"Voters acting on their own have no rational cause to vote fraudulently. The odds of casting a deciding vote are miniscule and cheaters risk criminal prosecution under state laws on the books for decades. The costs of fraudulent voting are steep and the benefits practically non-existent. Spurious, politically-motivated allegations of voter fraud are a distraction from the real problems in U.S. elections."




    • Replicating my methodology, 24 journalism students at twelve universities reviewed some 2,000 public records and identified just six cases of voter impersonation between 2000 and 2012.
    • Under Republican President George W. Bush, the U.S. Justice Department searched for voter fraud. But in the first three years of the program, just 26 people were convicted or pled guilty to illegal registration or voting. Out of 197,056,035 votes cast in the two federal elections held during that period, the rate of voter fraud was a miniscule 0.00000132 percent!
    • No state considering or passing restrictive voter identification laws has documented an actual problem with voter fraud. In litigation over the new voter identification laws in Wisconsin, Indiana, Georgia and Pennsylvania, election officials testified they have never seen cases of voter impersonation at the polls. Indiana and Pennsylvania stipulated in court that they had experienced zero instances of voter fraud.
    • When federal authorities challenged voter identification laws in South Carolina and Texas, neither state provided any evidence of voter impersonation or any other type of fraud that could be deterred by requiring voters to present photo identification at the polls."
http://www.scholarsstrategynetwork.org/brief/misleading-myth-voter-fraud-american-elections


Most illegal immigrants are so afraid of the government, that they won't even let themselves be interviewed by the census, even though they are assured that no harm will come to them. They avoid the police and other government institutions too. The idea that millions of them filled out voter registration forms and tried to vote (and somehow got away with it) is nothing short of hilarious. And in any case, there was no incentive for people to vote illegally in safe states anyway. Hillary Clinton was going to win California easily, and everyone knew that.




Well, I'm not trying to get you to change your positions on issues, or for you to abandon your support for Trump. I'm merely stating some facts. Urban areas have been steadily moving away from the Republican Party, while less-populated rural areas have been moving towards it. This is a fact. Please compare the election maps for the elections of the last 35 years.




California has turned blue due to the changing voter patterns in the West Coast and the Northeast, along with legal immigration. Look at Washington and Oregon too. Areas in the South have become much more Republican, in contrast. If you lived out here, you would realize how liberal white voters in coastal California are (where the vast majority of the state lives), and how even independent and Republican Whites are pretty moderate as well. I know of many who voted for Clinton, personally (despite having voted for Romney and/or McCain).





Well, if you're talking about the urban areas in the Midwest (which has always been a swingy area in recent elections), then they too moved away from the Republicans in most areas (with a few exceptions). You can see it on the map. It was the rural areas in these states that moved strongly towards Trump, which resulted in very narrow victories in a few states that ultimately won him the Electoral College. Keep in mind that many Midwestern Democrats simply stayed home or voted third-party. This was the biggest reason he won, although there was a shift in support towards him.

Not to mention that these areas are diversifying and younger whites are much more Democratic than their older counterparts (see exit polls). The Republican voter base of rural whites, older generations, and non-college educated whites is steadily shrinking. College educated-whites, in contrast, shifted strongly towards Clinton, and their ranks are growing. These are facts.




Well the polls weren't exactly wrong. They measured people's preferences correctly. However, they incorrectly predicted turnout, and that's what doomed Hillary Clinton in those states.




Actually, that's very fortunate for the Democrats. Republicans are the incumbent Party now. The President's party almost always loses seats in midterm elections:

cjpbdt3akugs-cl0gg2asq.png



I don't think he's necessarily going to be a "failure" by 2018. I don't expect things to change too much between now and then. But if things simply stay the same, a President with an approval rating in the low 40s, will not do well in the midterm election.




Well, you can keep posting videos of Nancy Pelosi. I certainly don't mind. I don't really even like her.

But yes, I definitely prefer her to this:





Some of us are very happy that Trump won on November 8th. The more you mention it, the more I smile. The unpopular Hillary Clinton is gone forever, but the unpopular Trump is still here, enacting many unpopular policies. We're in agreement that we like Trump is President. Please don't take my comments as a reaction to his election.

Like I said, we have to wait and see how it all goes.

It has only been 3 weeks or so of Trump...theres plenty of time left where things will be done and underlying issues exposed. We can only see who is right and who is wrong then....be it voter fraud investigation, inner city trends and of course the larger aspects of security and economy.
 
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Quick heads up everyone.

As of Monday (2.13.17) I will no longer be moderating this section (or the Europe and Russia section) and will no longer be an active participant on PDF. After eight months of maternity leave I'm set to return to work where, unfortunately (or fortunately for you rule breakers), I can not maintain a presence on the internet for security reasons - as is mandated by my terms of employment - let alone on a defense forum where conflict of interest and the possibility of revealing compromising information is an issue. Sorry for being so sudden about it, but that's life.

Have fun,

Fenrir
 
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Quick heads up everyone.

As of Monday (2.13.17) I will no longer be moderating this section (or the Europe and Russia section) and will no longer be an active participant on PDF. After eight months of maternity leave I'm set to return to work where, unfortunately (or fortunately for you rule breakers), I can not maintain a presence on the internet for security reasons - as is mandated by my terms of employment - let alone on a defense forum where conflict of interest and the possibility of revealing compromising information is an issue. Sorry for being so sudden about it, but that's life.

Have fun,

Fenrir


You will be missed. Best of luck though.
 
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Michael Flynn has resigned.
unfortunate development that, big league even. :(

The silver lining is that he's had Trump's ear for the better part of 2 years now so he's probably passed on a lot of his worldview, knowledge and laid a solid foundation on which Trump can now build on.
 
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unfortunate development that, big league even. :(

The silver lining is that he's had Trump's ear for the better part of 2 years now so he's probably passed on a lot of his worldview, knowledge and laid a solid foundation on which Trump can now build on.

He will remain in touch. Its unfortunate more wasn't done to preemptively shield better from any of this Russian stuff, now MSM will latch on to it like the blood sucking tick they are.
 
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He will remain in touch. Its unfortunate more wasn't done to preemptively shield better from any of this Russian stuff, now MSM will latch on to it like the blood sucking tick they are.
it is a big loss for team Trump, and could Pence be playing 5th column here ? o_O

could a John Bolton style neocon replacement be coming ? :undecided:
 
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it is a big loss for team Trump, and could Pence be playing 5th column here ? o_O

could a John Bolton style neocon replacement be coming ? :undecided:

Will have to wait and see. I started getting a sinking feeling about some of the appointments ever since Preibus and the paul ryan butt buddies claimed their stake.
 
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