Feng Leng
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http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1144481.shtml
US National Security Adviser John Bolton, the US State Department and the Pentagon all blamed People's Liberation Army (PLA) fighter jets for crossing the so-called "middle line" of the Taiwan Straits.
What's ridiculous is how the US and the Tsai Ing-wen administration are continuously breaking the status quo in the Taiwan Straits, but Washington is accusing the PLA of doing that.
Washington is following a wrong line in the Taiwan Straits. It is playing the Taiwan card because it regards China as a strategic rival. The US has overestimated its military power's deterrence of the mainland as well as Taiwan's wish to always serve as a US pawn. Washington has also underestimated Beijing's resolve and ability to take countermeasures. It has put itself in a dilemma.
The root of the unstable cross-Straits situation is the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) refuses to accept the one-China principle and adopts policies to confront the mainland. The DPP's act is partly based on political ideals and partly on electoral tactics. But it's uncertain how long such radical policies can exist in Taiwan politics. Washington is unwise to bind its Taiwan policy to the DPP's radical line.
As US warships repeatedly passed through the Taiwan Straits, why didn't they ever consider that the PLA would take countermeasures? It's Washington's blind confidence if it believes Beijing fears to act considering their relations.
Although China hopes to maintain stable China-US relations in the long run, it is prepared for fiercer competition in some areas. China will not take the initiative in escalating disputes, but it will fight to protect its core interests, especially on the Taiwan question.
Taiwan is close to the mainland, and the latter has abundant resources and strong strategic resolve. The US, however, should understand it doesn't have enough cards in Taiwan. Washington is choosing the wrong place, time and opponent to flex its muscle in Taiwan Straits.
The PLA has many choices, including crossing the "middle line," flying over the Taiwan island and even turn Taiwan into a Lebanon-like situation. These choices don't necessarily lead to war, they are enough to force Taiwan authorities to readjust their radical policies.
The US is powerful, but how many choices does it have in the Taiwan Straits, except to send warships and upgrade its relations with Taiwan? If the US military returns to Taiwan, China's Anti-secession Law will be violated, and the PLA will launch a direct attack. We believe Taiwan authorities have no guts to accept the US military, because they know it will be the death knell of "Taiwan-independence" forces.
The US House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs again put forth a proposal on Taiwan on Monday. But if a military confrontation breaks out in the Taiwan Straits, the proposals will be meaningless and Taiwan's political pattern will be changed. The Taiwan Travel Act needs the coordination of radical Taiwan authorities, but this remains uncertain.
Some radical Americans suggest selling more advanced aircraft to Taiwan, which is a dangerous move that breaks the status quo. The mainland will adopt stiffer countermeasures. Neither should the US overestimate the Taiwan military's loyalty. The advanced military technologies that the US sells to Taiwan will eventually come back to the mainland.
Nor can US acts in the South China Sea and in the Taiwan Straits coordinate with each other. China is restrained in the South China Sea. But if the US threatens the security of China's islands, the PLA's military hardware will land on the islands overnight.
The former US governments' policies toward Taiwan were basically prudent. If the current US government fails to understand the complexity of the Taiwan question and acts aggressively, it is bound to pay the price.
http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1144298.shtml
Taiwan can’t gamble on cross-Straits crisis
Taiwan authorities claimed that People's Liberation Army (PLA) fighter jets crossed the so-called "middle line" of the Taiwan Straits at Sunday noon. Will the Straits situation reach a new stage? Possibly, but not necessarily.
First, the "middle line" is fictitious and psychological comfort to the Taiwan authorities. The Chinese mainland has never recognized it. Moreover, the two sides across the Straits probably have different definitions of the "middle line." Hence, even if PLA fighter jets did cross it, how the situation develops depends on Taiwan and US reactions.
Washington has gone too far by sending warships to sail through the Straits thrice this year. Many people tended to think the PLA's move was a response to recent provocations by Taiwan and the US. If they restrain themselves, the crossing of PLA fighter jets over the "middle line" will be nothing serious. However, if the two continue to make provocative moves, the cross-Straits situation is bound to become more uncertain.
The cross-Straits situation is complicated as three sides are involved, while the main players of the game are two of them - Beijing and Washington.
Taiwan's real interest is long-term peace, which is always marginalized by the politics in the island. Some politicians in Taiwan prefer to put forward extreme policies to rival the mainland. The preconditions for such measures are peace where wars will not really break out.
Taiwan authorities make people believe they fear nothing, but in fact, the island cannot withstand the cross-Straits situation going toward deep turmoil.
China and the US are big countries who can afford military frictions in certain areas. But for the island, it won't be that simple.
If the fighter jets of the PLA and the US Air Force have an encounter in the skies over Taiwan, it will have a strong psychological impact on Taiwan people. The mainland could also retaliate against US moves in the region.
Recently, Chinese mainland scholars have been engaged in a broader discussion on how to cope with the growing provocations from the island and the US. More and more people suggest PLA fighter jets fly over the island.
As cross-Straits military tensions intensify, the probability of occasional military frictions or limited military conflicts will rise. It's possible that the fighter jet will be shot down in a military clash, or PLA conducts targeted elimination at certain military base on the island that could threaten the mainland.
Does this mean China is about to resolve the Taiwan question using military means? Not necessarily. A peaceful reunification is the mainland's basic policy toward the island. But it doesn't mean giving up using military forces.
We don't need a real war to resolve the Taiwan question. The mainland can adopt various measures to make Taiwan ruled by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) turn into a Lebanon situation, which "Taiwan independence" forces cannot afford.
If Washington sends wrong signals that lead to continuously escalating tensions in the region, it would be a nightmare for Taiwan authorities. If the DPP puts the island in the middle of a high-level military storm, can it sustain the rule?
Once the cross-Straits crisis gets out of control, the Chinese mainland is capable of fighting to the end, while both the island and the US have something to worry about. The DPP fears that it would lose its power. Washington doesn't want to be involved in another major war and is also concerned that Taiwan people will no longer accept its support.
Taiwan and the US must restrain themselves as the cross-Straits crisis has already turned into a gamble they cannot afford.
Now the strategy is made public. Beijing will launch air and missile strikes on key political and military targets to degrade support for Taiwan independence.
US National Security Adviser John Bolton, the US State Department and the Pentagon all blamed People's Liberation Army (PLA) fighter jets for crossing the so-called "middle line" of the Taiwan Straits.
What's ridiculous is how the US and the Tsai Ing-wen administration are continuously breaking the status quo in the Taiwan Straits, but Washington is accusing the PLA of doing that.
Washington is following a wrong line in the Taiwan Straits. It is playing the Taiwan card because it regards China as a strategic rival. The US has overestimated its military power's deterrence of the mainland as well as Taiwan's wish to always serve as a US pawn. Washington has also underestimated Beijing's resolve and ability to take countermeasures. It has put itself in a dilemma.
The root of the unstable cross-Straits situation is the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) refuses to accept the one-China principle and adopts policies to confront the mainland. The DPP's act is partly based on political ideals and partly on electoral tactics. But it's uncertain how long such radical policies can exist in Taiwan politics. Washington is unwise to bind its Taiwan policy to the DPP's radical line.
As US warships repeatedly passed through the Taiwan Straits, why didn't they ever consider that the PLA would take countermeasures? It's Washington's blind confidence if it believes Beijing fears to act considering their relations.
Although China hopes to maintain stable China-US relations in the long run, it is prepared for fiercer competition in some areas. China will not take the initiative in escalating disputes, but it will fight to protect its core interests, especially on the Taiwan question.
Taiwan is close to the mainland, and the latter has abundant resources and strong strategic resolve. The US, however, should understand it doesn't have enough cards in Taiwan. Washington is choosing the wrong place, time and opponent to flex its muscle in Taiwan Straits.
The PLA has many choices, including crossing the "middle line," flying over the Taiwan island and even turn Taiwan into a Lebanon-like situation. These choices don't necessarily lead to war, they are enough to force Taiwan authorities to readjust their radical policies.
The US is powerful, but how many choices does it have in the Taiwan Straits, except to send warships and upgrade its relations with Taiwan? If the US military returns to Taiwan, China's Anti-secession Law will be violated, and the PLA will launch a direct attack. We believe Taiwan authorities have no guts to accept the US military, because they know it will be the death knell of "Taiwan-independence" forces.
The US House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs again put forth a proposal on Taiwan on Monday. But if a military confrontation breaks out in the Taiwan Straits, the proposals will be meaningless and Taiwan's political pattern will be changed. The Taiwan Travel Act needs the coordination of radical Taiwan authorities, but this remains uncertain.
Some radical Americans suggest selling more advanced aircraft to Taiwan, which is a dangerous move that breaks the status quo. The mainland will adopt stiffer countermeasures. Neither should the US overestimate the Taiwan military's loyalty. The advanced military technologies that the US sells to Taiwan will eventually come back to the mainland.
Nor can US acts in the South China Sea and in the Taiwan Straits coordinate with each other. China is restrained in the South China Sea. But if the US threatens the security of China's islands, the PLA's military hardware will land on the islands overnight.
The former US governments' policies toward Taiwan were basically prudent. If the current US government fails to understand the complexity of the Taiwan question and acts aggressively, it is bound to pay the price.
http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1144298.shtml
Taiwan can’t gamble on cross-Straits crisis
Taiwan authorities claimed that People's Liberation Army (PLA) fighter jets crossed the so-called "middle line" of the Taiwan Straits at Sunday noon. Will the Straits situation reach a new stage? Possibly, but not necessarily.
First, the "middle line" is fictitious and psychological comfort to the Taiwan authorities. The Chinese mainland has never recognized it. Moreover, the two sides across the Straits probably have different definitions of the "middle line." Hence, even if PLA fighter jets did cross it, how the situation develops depends on Taiwan and US reactions.
Washington has gone too far by sending warships to sail through the Straits thrice this year. Many people tended to think the PLA's move was a response to recent provocations by Taiwan and the US. If they restrain themselves, the crossing of PLA fighter jets over the "middle line" will be nothing serious. However, if the two continue to make provocative moves, the cross-Straits situation is bound to become more uncertain.
The cross-Straits situation is complicated as three sides are involved, while the main players of the game are two of them - Beijing and Washington.
Taiwan's real interest is long-term peace, which is always marginalized by the politics in the island. Some politicians in Taiwan prefer to put forward extreme policies to rival the mainland. The preconditions for such measures are peace where wars will not really break out.
Taiwan authorities make people believe they fear nothing, but in fact, the island cannot withstand the cross-Straits situation going toward deep turmoil.
China and the US are big countries who can afford military frictions in certain areas. But for the island, it won't be that simple.
If the fighter jets of the PLA and the US Air Force have an encounter in the skies over Taiwan, it will have a strong psychological impact on Taiwan people. The mainland could also retaliate against US moves in the region.
Recently, Chinese mainland scholars have been engaged in a broader discussion on how to cope with the growing provocations from the island and the US. More and more people suggest PLA fighter jets fly over the island.
As cross-Straits military tensions intensify, the probability of occasional military frictions or limited military conflicts will rise. It's possible that the fighter jet will be shot down in a military clash, or PLA conducts targeted elimination at certain military base on the island that could threaten the mainland.
Does this mean China is about to resolve the Taiwan question using military means? Not necessarily. A peaceful reunification is the mainland's basic policy toward the island. But it doesn't mean giving up using military forces.
We don't need a real war to resolve the Taiwan question. The mainland can adopt various measures to make Taiwan ruled by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) turn into a Lebanon situation, which "Taiwan independence" forces cannot afford.
If Washington sends wrong signals that lead to continuously escalating tensions in the region, it would be a nightmare for Taiwan authorities. If the DPP puts the island in the middle of a high-level military storm, can it sustain the rule?
Once the cross-Straits crisis gets out of control, the Chinese mainland is capable of fighting to the end, while both the island and the US have something to worry about. The DPP fears that it would lose its power. Washington doesn't want to be involved in another major war and is also concerned that Taiwan people will no longer accept its support.
Taiwan and the US must restrain themselves as the cross-Straits crisis has already turned into a gamble they cannot afford.
Now the strategy is made public. Beijing will launch air and missile strikes on key political and military targets to degrade support for Taiwan independence.
