batmannow
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Unwinnable wars
Monday, October 20, 2008
the news.com
When the coalition forces declared themselves victorious in Afghanistan after the overthrow of the Taliban government they were fooling nobody but themselves. That the Taliban had been toppled was undeniable - but they had not been militarily defeated in any conventional sense. There had been no decisive battle with a clear winner and in the end the Taliban chose not to fight a battle that they could never win and went home; back to whatever it was they were doing before they toppled the Russians. The Afghan insurgency began the day the Taliban left Kabul and has continued ever since.
The battle for Afghanistan, at least in the south and east, is now stalemated. The Taliban cannot wipe out the coalition and the coalition cannot wipe out the Taliban. The realities of this en-passe have been exposed for us by Brigadier Mark Carleton-Smith, the commander of UK forces in Helmand province who recently said that a decisive military victory was unlikely, that dialogue with elements of the Taliban was the way forward and there was probably always going to be a steady level of rural insurgency no matter that there be a positive outcome to talks. He went on to say that the goal now was to change the way debates were resolved in the country so that violence was not the first option considered. This is clearly in the mind of General Petraeus who takes over as head of US Central Command on Oct 31 and who has already put in motion a reassessment of regional strategy which is likely to have two principal themes: - a government-led reconciliation with Taliban insurgents in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and the bringing into play of diplomatic and economic initiatives with nearby countries that are influential in the war and perhaps including India.
The people that Brig Carleton-Smiths and General Petraeus soldiers are fighting are in all likelihood the same people that General Kayanis men are fighting in Bajaur, north and south Waziristan and the Swat valley. The same reality holds good on either side of the border and the Taliban fighting in Afghanistan are not going to be defeated any more than the Taliban who live within our own borders are going to be crushed militarily. The current insurgency in Afghanistan and the insurgency in Pakistan have some similarities; and both are open to similar solutions. The Taliban are not homogeneous. They are made up of widely differing groups with no centralised command. Some of them will never give up fighting, but others of a more pragmatic frame of mind could be brought to the table. Those who want to fight will always have to be fought, but those who are willing to talk need to be given the space and place for dialogue to develop, for the creation of a post-conflict zone within which reconstruction and development may begin anew.
There are elements of the war being fought today that are American, but the majority of it is ours and was being fought long before 9/11 with those wishing to impose a particular form of Islam being in conflict with the state. We cannot win Americas war but we can win our own. We will have to continue to fight those who will never make peace and who would overthrow the state, but we will also have to talk to those who can be persuaded to do so; and then carry on talking until we move to a place somewhere between war and peace. Winning our war by fighting alone ceased to be an option years ago.
Monday, October 20, 2008
the news.com
When the coalition forces declared themselves victorious in Afghanistan after the overthrow of the Taliban government they were fooling nobody but themselves. That the Taliban had been toppled was undeniable - but they had not been militarily defeated in any conventional sense. There had been no decisive battle with a clear winner and in the end the Taliban chose not to fight a battle that they could never win and went home; back to whatever it was they were doing before they toppled the Russians. The Afghan insurgency began the day the Taliban left Kabul and has continued ever since.
The battle for Afghanistan, at least in the south and east, is now stalemated. The Taliban cannot wipe out the coalition and the coalition cannot wipe out the Taliban. The realities of this en-passe have been exposed for us by Brigadier Mark Carleton-Smith, the commander of UK forces in Helmand province who recently said that a decisive military victory was unlikely, that dialogue with elements of the Taliban was the way forward and there was probably always going to be a steady level of rural insurgency no matter that there be a positive outcome to talks. He went on to say that the goal now was to change the way debates were resolved in the country so that violence was not the first option considered. This is clearly in the mind of General Petraeus who takes over as head of US Central Command on Oct 31 and who has already put in motion a reassessment of regional strategy which is likely to have two principal themes: - a government-led reconciliation with Taliban insurgents in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and the bringing into play of diplomatic and economic initiatives with nearby countries that are influential in the war and perhaps including India.
The people that Brig Carleton-Smiths and General Petraeus soldiers are fighting are in all likelihood the same people that General Kayanis men are fighting in Bajaur, north and south Waziristan and the Swat valley. The same reality holds good on either side of the border and the Taliban fighting in Afghanistan are not going to be defeated any more than the Taliban who live within our own borders are going to be crushed militarily. The current insurgency in Afghanistan and the insurgency in Pakistan have some similarities; and both are open to similar solutions. The Taliban are not homogeneous. They are made up of widely differing groups with no centralised command. Some of them will never give up fighting, but others of a more pragmatic frame of mind could be brought to the table. Those who want to fight will always have to be fought, but those who are willing to talk need to be given the space and place for dialogue to develop, for the creation of a post-conflict zone within which reconstruction and development may begin anew.
There are elements of the war being fought today that are American, but the majority of it is ours and was being fought long before 9/11 with those wishing to impose a particular form of Islam being in conflict with the state. We cannot win Americas war but we can win our own. We will have to continue to fight those who will never make peace and who would overthrow the state, but we will also have to talk to those who can be persuaded to do so; and then carry on talking until we move to a place somewhere between war and peace. Winning our war by fighting alone ceased to be an option years ago.
